Simon Bradley Posted May 27, 2019 Share Posted May 27, 2019 I know he will make us feel better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
derbydaz22 Posted May 27, 2019 Share Posted May 27, 2019 18 minutes ago, Simon Bradley said: I know he will make us feel better Even B4 can’t rally the troops yet it’s to raw at the moment ??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boycie Posted May 27, 2019 Share Posted May 27, 2019 Probably still stuck in the bus park. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Millenniumram Posted May 27, 2019 Share Posted May 27, 2019 I’ll try... I’m trying (and failing) to be a mathematician and this number of failures to get promoted is a statistical anomaly. We have to go up soon, the odds have to be strongly with us. Hope that helps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albert Posted May 27, 2019 Share Posted May 27, 2019 7 minutes ago, Millenniumram said: I’ll try... I’m trying (and failing) to be a mathematician and this number of failures to get promoted is a statistical anomaly. We have to go up soon, the odds have to be strongly with us. Hope that helps? I'll be honest, the number isn't really an anomaly at all. From the McClaren era to now, the odds of us not being promoted from the positions we've been is well within reason. If we keep hammering away like this though, it'll happen eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Millenniumram Posted May 27, 2019 Share Posted May 27, 2019 2 minutes ago, Albert said: I'll be honest, the number isn't really an anomaly at all. From the McClaren era to now, the odds of us not being promoted from the positions we've been is well within reason. If we keep hammering away like this though, it'll happen eventually. I mean the shear number of times rather than individual cases really, tho 14/15 was something pretty unreal and probably never to be repeated. Tbf it’s only one over the expected value but shuuuuuush it’ll make us feel better? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
derbydaz22 Posted May 27, 2019 Share Posted May 27, 2019 16 minutes ago, Boycie said: Probably still stuck in the bus park. Or thrown off the roadrider for sneaking beer on ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albert Posted May 27, 2019 Share Posted May 27, 2019 2 minutes ago, Millenniumram said: I mean the shear number of times rather than individual cases really, tho 14/15 was something pretty unreal and probably never to be repeated. Tbf it’s only one over the expected value but shuuuuuush it’ll make us feel better? That's what I mean, even combined we're not looking at anything ridiculous. It seems like a lot just going by emotion, but we've only gone into the playoffs 4 times now still, each representing approximately a 1/4 chance each, which represents ~68.5% of going up total. Taking into account the chances of us making the playoffs in the other seasons, and the chances of us making automatic promotion at other times, the other seasons are worth maybe 10-15% depending on how you want to quantify it, and you could argue each of the playoff seasons represented some chance of the autos as well (let's say each is 30% instead of 25%). Those together represent 83% chance of promotion or thereabouts. That's a very good chance (on numbers thrown together), but nothing extraordinary for it not to happen. The club needs to keep doing the right thing, and it will come in time. Given how inconsistent we still are, another season to develop our own team, and give youngsters like Bogle and Sibley a chance, could be a benefit to us going up in the future. Or it could just perpetuate this cycle of the playoffs. Who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkFruitsRam7 Posted May 27, 2019 Share Posted May 27, 2019 29 minutes ago, Millenniumram said: I’ll try... I’m trying (and failing) to be a mathematician and this number of failures to get promoted is a statistical anomaly. We have to go up soon, the odds have to be strongly with us. Hope that helps? Gambler’s fallacy! @Carl Sagan will like that one I reckon. On the topic of the thread, I hope you’re alright @B4ev6is. We need you next season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve How Hard? Posted May 27, 2019 Share Posted May 27, 2019 25 minutes ago, Albert said: If we keep hammering away like this though, it'll happen eventually. That's what I tell the missus most Saturday nights. ☺ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brammie Steve Posted May 27, 2019 Share Posted May 27, 2019 Top two in 2020!??????????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Millenniumram Posted May 27, 2019 Share Posted May 27, 2019 34 minutes ago, Albert said: That's what I mean, even combined we're not looking at anything ridiculous. It seems like a lot just going by emotion, but we've only gone into the playoffs 4 times now still, each representing approximately a 1/4 chance each, which represents ~68.5% of going up total. Taking into account the chances of us making the playoffs in the other seasons, and the chances of us making automatic promotion at other times, the other seasons are worth maybe 10-15% depending on how you want to quantify it, and you could argue each of the playoff seasons represented some chance of the autos as well (let's say each is 30% instead of 25%). Those together represent 83% chance of promotion or thereabouts. That's a very good chance (on numbers thrown together), but nothing extraordinary for it not to happen. The club needs to keep doing the right thing, and it will come in time. Given how inconsistent we still are, another season to develop our own team, and give youngsters like Bogle and Sibley a chance, could be a benefit to us going up in the future. Or it could just perpetuate this cycle of the playoffs. Who knows. Damn I only did it treated the playoffs as a very basic binomial success or failure, just trying to give us a bit of hope? You’re right of course if you look at historic records from positions you’d build a much more reliable picture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B4ev6is Posted May 27, 2019 Share Posted May 27, 2019 I am sorry guys I let you all down I really tried get us there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrivateDerby Posted May 27, 2019 Share Posted May 27, 2019 Come on B4! We're not going down, we're not going up, we're Derby County, we don't give a Bamford. Up The Rams ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brammie Steve Posted May 28, 2019 Share Posted May 28, 2019 6 hours ago, B4ev6is said: I am sorry guys I let you all down I really tried get us there? B4, you have been an encouragement and an inspiration to us during the whole season. If the rest of us showed half the drive that you have then Man City would have a real fight on their hands. We have enjoyed another brilliant season. If anyone has let us down (which they haven't!) It certainly hasn't been your very good self! On and up with B4!??????????? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zag zig Posted May 28, 2019 Share Posted May 28, 2019 7 hours ago, B4ev6is said: I am sorry guys I let you all down I really tried get us there? Nah, you’re a good passionate cheerleader, don’t change, accept the loss and bounce back ready for another good season. You know we will be fine, you’ll be back to get us fans and Pride Park rocking come August. C.O.Y.R’s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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