Can form Predict the Swansea Result?

[Ellafella]

Over the last 10 games, Swansea have accumulated 19 points. Over the last 10 games, Derby have accumulated 19 points.

Swansea are unbeaten in 3 games {w2, D1}; Derby are unbeaten in 4 games {w3, d1}.

In their last 5 games, Swansea have W3, D1, L1. In their last 5 games, Derby have W3, D1, L1.

Over the last 10 games Swansea have P10, W6, D1 and L3. Over the last 10 games, Derby have P10, W5, D4, and L1.

Over the last 10 games, Swansea have scored 17 goals and conceded 15. This gives them a goals-for ratio of 1.13.

Over the last 10 games, Derby have scored 22 and conceded 8. This gives them a goals-for ratio of 2.75.

Over the last 10 games, the average position of the opposition played by Swansea is 14th.

Over the last 10 games, the average position of the opposition played by Derby is 16th.

Over the last 10 games, Swansea have played 2 teams in the top 6. Over the last 10 games, Derby have played 0 teams in the top 6.

In their last game, Swansea overachieved their Expected Goals ratio by 0.2 (scored 2 against an Xg of 1.8). In their last game, Derby overachieved their Expected Goals ratio by 0.9 (scored 2 against an Xg of 1.1).

In the “Home-only” table, Swansea have P22, W12 (55%), D5 (23%) and L5 (23%) and are 8th behind Derby in 6th.

In the “Away-only” table Derby are 9th having played 22, W7 (32%), D6 (27%) and L9 (41%).

Summary

This will be a tight game. There is little to choose between the 2 teams over the last 10 games. Swansea have improved over the season after a sluggish start. Derby have been consistently in and around the top 6. The most likely result based on the above is Swansea 1: 1 Derby followed by Swansea 1:2. Derby

What do you think?

[ossieram]

I'll wait and see.

[Mucker1884]

Maybe it can... maybe it can't...

[Boycie]

Form can be undone by just one persons mistake. 

 

 

[Ghost of Clough]

How could Bogle’s XG be less than 0.1? ??

[KCG]

2 hours ago, Ellafella said:

Over the last 10 games, Swansea have accumulated 19 points. Over the last 10 games, Derby have accumulated 19 points.

Swansea are unbeaten in 3 games {w2, D1}; Derby are unbeaten in 4 games {w3, d1}.

In their last 5 games, Swansea have W3, D1, L1. In their last 5 games, Derby have W3, D1, L1.

Over the last 10 games Swansea have P10, W6, D1 and L3. Over the last 10 games, Derby have P10, W5, D4, and L1.

Over the last 10 games, Swansea have scored 17 goals and conceded 15. This gives them a goals-for ratio of 1.13.

Over the last 10 games, Derby have scored 22 and conceded 8. This gives them a goals-for ratio of 2.75.

Over the last 10 games, the average position of the opposition played by Swansea is 14th.

Over the last 10 games, the average position of the opposition played by Derby is 16th.

Over the last 10 games, Swansea have played 2 teams in the top 6. Over the last 10 games, Derby have played 0 teams in the top 6.

In their last game, Swansea overachieved their Expected Goals ratio by 0.2 (scored 2 against an Xg of 1.8). In their last game, Derby overachieved their Expected Goals ratio by 0.9 (scored 2 against an Xg of 1.1).

In the “Home-only” table, Swansea have P22, W12 (55%), D5 (23%) and L5 (23%) and are 8th behind Derby in 6th.

In the “Away-only” table Derby are 9th having played 22, W7 (32%), D6 (27%) and L9 (41%).

Summary

This will be a tight game. There is little to choose between the 2 teams over the last 10 games. Swansea have improved over the season after a sluggish start. Derby have been consistently in and around the top 6. The most likely result based on the above is Swansea 1: 1 Derby followed by Swansea 1:2. Derby

What do you think?

What's the head-to-head record with them at their ground in recent years?

[Comrade 86]

Tight game but another away win for Derby and a play-off slot all but assured. 

[Ellafella]

10 minutes ago, KCG said:

What's the head-to-head record with them at their ground in recent years?

Good question but I never bother with those as I think anything other than the last few games has little predictive value. 

[JfR]

10 minutes ago, KCG said:

What's the head-to-head record with them at their ground in recent years?

We've not played them much recently, and last played at their ground 9 years ago, but since 1999 our record is WDDLD, with only those last three being in the 2000s. I'm not sure how much can be gleaned from that, though.

[bigbadbob]

13 minutes ago, KCG said:

What's the head-to-head record with them at their ground in recent years?

How recent?

[Ellafella]

2 hours ago, Boycie said:

Form can be undone by just one persons mistake. 

 

 

True indeed @Boycie. Let’s hope everybody is error-free in Swansea. {there’s almost iambic pentameter going on there}

[Rampage]

Form  cannot predict result. Watching the highlights from Saturday and freeze framing the shots before they did or did not go in cannot predict the result! Bristol City won the highlifhtss about 3-1 on frozen highlights. Fortunately the highlights were two goals by the Rams. ??

[Ellafella]

19 minutes ago, KCG said:

What's the head-to-head record with them at their ground in recent years?

https://www.11v11.com/teams/derby-county/tab/opposingTeams/opposition/Swansea City/

There you go. It’s always been tight in recent games. 

[Ellafella]

1 hour ago, Ghost of Clough said:

How could Bogle’s XG be less than 0.1? ??

Where does it say/imply/intimate that it is? 

[Ghost of Clough]

5 minutes ago, Ellafella said:

Where does it say/imply/intimate that it is? 

Misread it, but it’s still only 0.2. Supposedly he was as likely to score as Lawrence was from the edge of the area.

[minesahartington]

With the recent upturn in the weather allotment time is almost here

[AndyB]

No it can’t, this is the Championship after all!

[RamNut]

Based on those stats the result will be a scoreline of 1s and 2s

• swansea 1 derby 1
• swansea 1 derby 2
• swansea 2 derby 1
• swansea 2 derby 2

Or it could be something else.....

bugger....i'm going 1-1

[Dethorn]

I rolled two dice Swansea 4 Derby 6

[Ghost of Clough]

1 minute ago, Dethorn said:

I rolled two dice Swansea 4 Derby 6

I’d be intrigued if you predicted 0-0 ?