Player Valuations

[Day]

I posed a question to Duracell in the Will Hughes thread, it will be buried in the continued rage that we sold Hughes for such a low figure, but I thought it’s actually quite an interesting talking point from me for a change.

On Monday night I put a valuation of £15m on Will Hughes head, the very next day reports of £8m bids then £4.5m were being released by the media. At first I put it down to pulling numbers out their arses until it became apparent £8m was roughly the true figure that's being reported now.

Almost half of what I placed upon his head.

I started questioning myself, how did I arrive at that £15m figure, didn’t I just do what I was accusing the media of doing, pulling numbers out my arse? 

Why £15m not £14m or £16m, trying to justify that number to myself and I had no answer other than clubs are paying crazy figures so why not us? But that didn’t answer the question of how did I arrive at that magical £15m.

I don’t know what contract Hughes is on, I don’t know how much competition there was for his signature, how strong the desire was for him to take on this new challenge, I don’t know what part he would play in Rowett’s team or how much he needs to raise to bring in the players he wants to strengthen. 

Market value? When was the last 22 year old English CM that has just played his first season after being out with an ACL injury, playing in his last England U21 tournament and recently signed a new contract having been at the club all his profession career sold? I can’t think of one.

£15m. 

There is no magical online calculator which I could enter his registration plate, mot and service history to receive a free quote within seconds.  

I just pulled £15m out my arse. 

So this doesn’t become a Will Hughes topic as there are plenty already, my question to you all would be what valuation would you put on Max Lowe and explain how you arrived at that figure. You can have addons if you like, let us know how you arrived at those numbers as well.

I was looking for a player that’s not widely disliked, recently signed or been linked in the press with another club to make it as difficult as possible.

This is genuine question, not designed to mock anyone, it's a question as I say have asked myself. Hopefully it is one that is just as thought provoking as it has been for myself.

[Gritstone Ram]

6 minutes ago, David said:

I posed a question to Duracell in the Will Hughes thread, it will be buried in the continued rage that we sold Hughes for such a low figure, but I thought it’s actually quite an interesting talking point from me for a change.

On Monday night I put a valuation of £15m on Will Hughes head, the very next day reports of £8m bids then £4.5m were being released by the media. At first I put it down to pulling numbers out their arses until it became apparent £8m was roughly the true figure that's being reported now.

Almost less than half I placed upon his head.

I started questioning myself, how did I arrive at that £15m figure, didn’t I just do what I was accusing the media of doing, pulling numbers out my arse? 

Why £15m not £14m or £16m, trying to justify that number to myself and I had no answer other than other clubs are paying crazy figures so why not us? But that didn’t answer the question of how did I arrive at that magical £15m.

I don’t know what contract Hughes is on, I don’t know how much competition there was for his signature, how strong the desire was for him to take on this new challenge, I don’t know what part he would play in Rowett’s team or how much he needs to raise to bring in the players he wants to strengthen. 

Market value? When was the last 22 year old English CM that has just played his first season after being out with an ACL injury, playing in his last England U21 tournament and recently signed a new contract having been at the club all his profession career sold? I can’t think of one.

£15m. 

There is no magical online calculator which I could enter his registration plate, mot and service history to receive a free quote within seconds.  

I just pulled £15m out my arse. 

So this doesn’t become a Will Hughes topic as there are plenty already, my question to you all would be what valuation would you put on Max Lowe’s and explain how you arrived at that figure. You can have addons if you like, let us know how you arrived at those numbers as well.

I was looking for a player that’s not widely disliked, recently signed or been linked in the press with another club to make it as difficult as possible.

This is genuine question, not designed to mock anyone, it's a question as I say have asked myself. Hopefully it is one that is just as thought provoking as it has been for myself.

Very difficult to give a valuation on him. Too many injuries and not really a full season under his belt. It boils down to how much someone is prepared to pay. If we want to keep him that also puts the price up.

At the moment I'd say £750k

[FrostedRam]

I would say. £1 million down payment, with add ons taking it to £3 mill and 10% sell on.

although a good player with the potential to be a really good player. He needs to get a full season under his belt with consistently playing a run of 10 games at least befor his value will increase. 

But for injuries last season he would be a higher value already 

[DarkFruitsRam7]

I don't think Max Lowe would be much above £500,000. Looked decent in the bits that he's played but a little shakey defensively and far too injury prone for a club to take a gamble on someone who probably wouldn't be first choice. 

I would say the rest of the team (not including new signings and Lowe) are roughly as follows:

 

Carson: £500,000 - £1 million

Mitchell: £100,000

 

Christie: £1.5 million - 2 million 

Baird: No-one would pay a fee (very useful player though)

Keogh: £4 million - £6 million

Pearce: £300,000 - £500,000

Shackell: N/A, couldn't see anyone paying a fee for him due to his recurring injuries and high wages

Forsyth: £1.5 million - £2.5 million (would personally value him at much more)

Olsson: £500,000

 

Butterfield: £2 million - £3 million

Johnson: £3 million - £4 million

Thorne: Same situation as Shackell

Bryson: £250,000 - 500,000 (Wouldn't sell him for that though)

Hanson: £100,000 - £300,000

 

Ince: £10 million (wouldn't accept less than £15 million however)

Vydra: £2 million - £4 million 

Russell: £1.5 million - £3 million 

Blackman: £500,000 - £1 million (as I've said many times before though, he's so much better than many fans seem to think, could potentially see a lot more from him if played on the right).

Weimann: £2 million - £3 million (would look at selling, really isn't a winger, although there were some signs of a partnership with Martin at Hull away)

Anya: £2 million (would keep him for his utility)

 

Martin: £5 million

Nugent: £1 million - £1.5 million (again, personally would value him at a lot more)

Bent: Couldn't see anyone paying a fee (think he's been chronically undervalued by fans for the goals that he's scored for us in recent years, even considering his lack of team play)

 

Those are based on what I think other teams would pay, although I personally would value many higher (Forsyth, Thorne, Bryson, Ince, Nugent, etc). I do think many of our fans overvalue our players a little bit, I hope I haven't fallen into the same trap.

[Day]

@BurtonRam7 You have successfully placed a numerical figure on our entire squad guesstimating what you think other clubs would pay.

Going back to Hughes for a second and before any transfer speculation surrounding him, being honest with yourself how much did you think clubs would have paid for him? 

 

[G STAR RAM]

I did a thread about this a while ago.

Factors I thought could come into play:-

Age

Number of appearances

International appearances

Length of contract

In summary:-

Hughes £50m

Every other player £0 because they are rubbish (until we get rid of them at which point there value rockets)

[VulcanRam]

@David's mea culpa is right. None of us know anything and we just think of a figure based around what we think someone ought to pay. I think £8 million is low for Hughes but then if he wants to go and there are no other bidders, it puts DCFC in a poor negotiating position. I think for most of us it's look around, see what other players go for, see what the media says and throw in a whole load of sentimental self-judgement based solely on what we think.

Which frankly when you see some of the transfer fees being banded around is just about how everyone else does it as well.

[Day]

8 minutes ago, G STAR RAM said:

I did a thread about this a while ago.

So you did, forgive me! Remember posting in it now. Just something that's been on my mind these last few days. When you actually stop to think about the number you land on, you start to feel a bit daft for being so angry at valuations.

I don't for a second believe an offer comes in for a player and the club say half it and you have a deal, a player is only worth what a club is willing to pay is true. 

Don't start that thought process though as then you start to question why there was no war for the signature of Davies and Wisdom, we're doooooooomed!

 

[RiddingsRam]

I think Hughes was over valued by our fans , probably due to his affiliation with the club. Personally before the transfer I would have valued him at £10 million.

I think the stock of a lot of our players is low due to consistent seasons of under achievement and the players that have performed have been older I. E Nugent , Keogh. 

Ince is probably our highest value asset and I'd value him at £12 million.

[DarkFruitsRam7]

16 minutes ago, David said:

@BurtonRam7 You have successfully placed a numerical figure on our entire squad guesstimating what you think other clubs would pay.

Going back to Hughes for a second and before any transfer speculation surrounding him, being honest with yourself how much did you think clubs would have paid for him? 

 

Probably around £10 million, which I would have accepted. I'm slightly disappointed by the low fee but I do think he was slightly overrated by our fans. Can see him being worth about £15 million - £20 million in the future if he acclimatises well however.

[G STAR RAM]

9 minutes ago, David said:

So you did, forgive me! Remember posting in it now. Just something that's been on my mind these last few days. When you actually stop to think about the number you land on, you start to feel a bit daft for being so angry at valuations.

I don't for a second believe an offer comes in for a player and the club say half it and you have a deal, a player is only worth what a club is willing to pay is true. 

Don't start that thought process though as then you start to question why there was no war for the signature of Davies and Wisdom, we're doooooooomed!

The only thing anyone ever uses for valuations are played comparisons but it's no surprise that they always choose something to make our club look worse.

So far I've seen Hughes valuation compared to Oliver Burke.

Why has nobody chosen to compare it Knockaert?

 

[Day]

Just now, BurtonRam7 said:

Probably around £10 million, which I would have accepted. I'm slightly disappointed by the low fee but I do think he was slightly overrated by our fans. Can see him being worth about £15 million - £20 million in the future if he acclimatises well however.

Pretty much shows we have no idea what clubs would pay then?

I get things like these are talking points on forums, I'm not saying fees should be avoided because we have no accurate way of calculating them. I do think however a few woosah's are needed, seeing posts of season tickets being refunded over a fee is nuts.

If theres 2 men that would want as much money as they could possibly get for a play it would be Mel and Rowett, I reckon both of them would have liked £15m for Hughes, even £20m but if no club is willing to pay that then he can't be worth that.

Stepping into Hughes topic territory here so I'll stop.

 

[Day]

2 minutes ago, G STAR RAM said:

The only thing anyone ever uses for valuations are played comparisons but it's no surprise that they always choose something to make our club look worse.

So far I've seen Hughes valuation compared to Oliver Burke.

Why has nobody chosen to compare it Knockaert?

Good question, both are wide players as well so not even a fair comparison, attackers will always command a higher fee as goals win games..

I looked at the Hendrick fee myself when the news broke, different style of CM but a similar age, Hendrick however was going in off the back of the Euro's, did that effect his value at all or was Dyche already willing to go to £10.5m? Also has a World Cup goal to his name, just seen, does that add another 500k?

For all the criticism of Hughes lack of goals Hendrick wasn't exactly been prolific himself, just the 2 goals last season as well for Burnley.

Leicester paid 425k for Mahrez and £8m for Kante.

On Monday I asked for £15m each for Hughes and Ince.  

 

[Alph]

I looked at what we paid for Blackman, Shackell, Butterfield, Johnson and Wisdom. Then I looked at what Villa paid out. Then I looked at other Championship to Championship transfers. 

And I came to the conclusion that we should have sent Chris Martin, Scott Carson and George Thorne with him for nowt. Maybe pay half of the Watford wage bill? Anything else you need? Any more bargains like Vydra and Anya? 

[Alph]

18 minutes ago, G STAR RAM said:

The only thing anyone ever uses for valuations are played comparisons but it's no surprise that they always choose something to make our club look worse.

So far I've seen Hughes valuation compared to Oliver Burke.

Why has nobody chosen to compare it Knockaert?

 

Because "angry"

You keep stepping in the way of me sulking and I'll delete your account, muthafutha 

[europia]

Thing with Hedrick is that he has gone on to establish himself as PL player. The sort of player we would need of we ever got promoted. We haven't exactly invested that money well, so from that perspective it would have been better to keep him. Hughes true value will be determined by his achievement (or lack of  achievement) in the top division. 

[G STAR RAM]

To put it into context, if the £8m fee I've seen quoted is correct, Hughes makes it into the top 30 most expensive Championship player sales of all time.

 

[Parsnip]

If Mel Morris came to an agreement with Will Hughes that if he signed a contract then he'd give him a premier league move in the summer to anyone who offered £8m - then he's worth £8m, unless more than one team are in for him. I can imagine this being preferable to both parties than not signing a contract, Will having to wait another year before he can move to the Prem & us losing him for a tribunal fee. I'd guess the £8m was because a move was requested and agreed. If we'd got promoted, or if Will was happy to stick around in the Championship, then i don't think we'd have entertained bids under £12m.

Max Lowe is probably not at a sellable value yet (maybe £1m?) unless Man City fancy him and want him for the development team then it's £5m. Hopefully he's not for sale anyway.

[Van der MoodHoover]

Based on where he is now, a few hundred  £k. Let's say 300k

[Duracell]

Just think it would be an excellent rule to never buy a Championship player for more than £5m.

You're seeing players go for twice that who haven't even proven they're good enough for the Premier League. They just might get you there. And when you do, chances are you'll have to find someone better suited to the top-flight anyway.

There are so many players that go for ridiculous fees now. Rhodes, McCormack, Vydra, Chester, Khodija, Johnson...

At what point do you stop and realise that it's completely ridiculous. Champions League sides spend less on better talent. How is that a thing!?

I don't think any club should ever sign a second tier player over 23 for more than £5m. Ever. Ever ever ever. Every in the Championship, just stop it.

Getting to the stage now where Russell could find form again and win player of the season and then a relegated Prem side could come down and go "a Championship POTS? I want one!!! Give you £20,000,000..."

It's stupid. I hate it. I hate that players are going for Champions League-level fees just for being better than a bang average Championship player.