Is a relegation battle really on the cards !

[curb]

 CLOUGHIE admits relegation battle

 

http://www.derbycounty-mad.co.uk/news/tmnw/clough_admits_its_a_relegation_fight_787357/index.shtml?

Doesn't count because it's got a " in the title instead of an '

Sorry, you'll have to try again.

[davenportram]

Teams at the bottom will have to play each other.

for us to go down then at least 7 teams have to do better than us over the next 9 games - in fact one of the bottom three will have to do 7 points better than us over the nibe games.

if we get no more points then they need to get just under a point a game possible but if they lose one or two this looks unlikely

if we get a draw then again they need just under a point a game (above applies)

if we get two draws they need to get 9 points from nine games - virtually impossible ob there form so far being barely a point a game

If we get a win then they need to average over a point a game - if they just lose one the remaining 8 games need to give them 10 points. Not very likely.

in short none of the current bottom three will catch us and relegation is not going to happen

[TroyDyer]

I think it's a simple equation really. 

 

If our form continues as it is, until the end of the season, we'll be a League One side next year. 

 

If we pick up, manage a couple of results, then we will be back to our midtable championship mediocrity next year. 

 

I'm in the corner of I think we'll just about do enough to stay up. But I'm not delusional, or arrogant enough to dismiss the real possibility of going down. 

 

I can't see us getting owt on Saturday, which makes Bristol a very important game. We lose that, and we are in massive trouble. 

[ChaddesdenRam]

Win Win---------- safe

Draw Win ------- safe

Win Draw ------- close to being safe

Draw Draw ----- checking results below

Draw Loss ------ relegation lurkers

Loss Draw ------ relegation battle

Loss Loss ------- relegation battle

[Bris Vegas]

I think it's a simple equation really. 

 

If our form continues as it is, until the end of the season, we'll be a League One side next year. 

 

If we pick up, manage a couple of results, then we will be back to our midtable championship mediocrity next year. 

 

I'm in the corner of I think we'll just about do enough to stay up. But I'm not delusional, or arrogant enough to dismiss the real possibility of going down. 

 

I can't see us getting owt on Saturday, which makes Bristol a very important game. We lose that, and we are in massive trouble. 

 

I'm not really sure how you came to that conclusion Troy?

 

On our current form? Is this based on the last 4 games, the last 6 games or the last 9 games? Afterall we've picked up 7 points from the last 9.. If we pick up another 7 points from now until the end of the season we'll be clear by a good 5 points.. Even if we pick up only 4 points from the remaining 9, we'll still have a chance of staying up..

 

I think people are getting worked up over nothing..

 

We have 9 games left.. Of those 9 games 6 of the clubs are below us.. We're not going to lose all of them.. That 1 win which we'll obviously get, be it against P'Boro, Millwall or Barnsley will do them more harm than it will us good..

 

We've got too many '6 pointers' left to get relegated because we won't lose them all..

[Alph]

I'm not really sure how you came to that conclusion Troy?

 

On our current form? Is this based on the last 4 games, the last 6 games or the last 9 games? Afterall we've picked up 7 points from the last 9.. If we pick up another 7 points from now until the end of the season we'll be clear by a good 5 points.. Even if we pick up only 4 points from the remaining 9, we'll still have a chance of staying up..

 

I think people are getting worked up over nothing..

 

We have 9 games left.. Of those 9 games 6 of the clubs are below us.. We're not going to lose all of them.. That 1 win which we'll obviously get, be it against P'Boro, Millwall or Barnsley will do them more harm than it will us good..

 

We've got too many '6 pointers' left to get relegated because we won't lose them all..

Happy clapper.

Next.

[ramblur]

Teams at the bottom will have to play each other.

for us to go down then at least 7 teams have to do better than us over the next 9 games - in fact one of the bottom three will have to do 7 points better than us over the nibe games.

if we get no more points then they need to get just under a point a game possible but if they lose one or two this looks unlikely

if we get a draw then again they need just under a point a game (above applies)

if we get two draws they need to get 9 points from nine games - virtually impossible ob there form so far being barely a point a game

If we get a win then they need to average over a point a game - if they just lose one the remaining 8 games need to give them 10 points. Not very likely.

in short none of the current bottom three will catch us and relegation is not going to happen

Some strange logic in those 'ifs'. All of the bottom 3 have averaged slightly over a point a game over a much longer period of time than just 9 games,so 9 points from 9 games "virtually impossible"??  If they lose one or two,unlikely?? (they've all lost more than half over 37 games and still managed to average over a point a game,so losing 1 or 2 out of 9 is hardly going to ruin their chances).

 

I'm not saying relegation is likely,but I think some need to up the points we require to feel safe.An interesting point I hadn't noticed before is that 2 of the 3 have won as many as us and the other only one less.

[DCFCfranco]

I'm not really sure how you came to that conclusion Troy?

On our current form? Is this based on the last 4 games, the last 6 games or the last 9 games? Afterall we've picked up 7 points from the last 9.. If we pick up another 7 points from now until the end of the season we'll be clear by a good 5 points.. Even if we pick up only 4 points from the remaining 9, we'll still have a chance of staying up..

I think people are getting worked up over nothing..

We have 9 games left.. Of those 9 games 6 of the clubs are below us.. We're not going to lose all of them.. That 1 win which we'll obviously get, be it against P'Boro, Millwall or Barnsley will do them more harm than it will us good..

We've got too many '6 pointers' left to get relegated because we won't lose them all..

You're either drunk or deluded, clearly we're going down only a fool would say we're staying up.................

[Scott129]

How many on here thought we were top 6 material. Sam Rush really thought it at the fans forum. Its all gone Pete Tong since then. How many points will we get from the next 3 games !

 

Nope, I did think we had the makings of a top 10 side though. To be honest, I'd rather just forget about this season altogether now. We're not going to get relegated, we'll probably finish about 16th, shocking end to a promising season. Bring some new faces in (maybe even a new manager?) and start all over again for next season.

[davenportram]

Some strange logic in those 'ifs'. All of the bottom 3 have averaged slightly over a point a game over a much longer period of time than just 9 games,so 9 points from 9 games "virtually impossible"?? If they lose one or two,unlikely?? (they've all lost more than half over 37 games and still managed to average over a point a game,so losing 1 or 2 out of 9 is hardly going to ruin their chances).

I'm not saying relegation is likely,but I think some need to up the points we require to feel safe.An interesting point I hadn't noticed before is that 2 of the 3 have won as many as us and the other only one less.

how likely is it that we wont pick up a win or a few draws?

over the last 8 games - where we haven't won- only Peterborough has managed to gain 1 point per game more than us. Wolves 0.87 points per game more than us.

if we had won had drawn one of the losses or won one of the draws these drop by .125 points per game, or 0.25 points per.

on recent form if we draw a couple or win one it will be very unlikely that any if the bottom three will overtake us.

that's without looking at the other 6 teams that are below us and would have to overtake us as well

[Albert]

I think it's a simple equation really. 

 

If our form continues as it is, until the end of the season, we'll be a League One side next year. 

 

If we pick up, manage a couple of results, then we will be back to our midtable championship mediocrity next year. 

 

I'm in the corner of I think we'll just about do enough to stay up. But I'm not delusional, or arrogant enough to dismiss the real possibility of going down. 

 

I can't see us getting owt on Saturday, which makes Bristol a very important game. We lose that, and we are in massive trouble.

Even if our form remains as poor as it's been we'll still get around ~8 points from the last 9 games, that would put us on 53 points which would likely be safe and above the highest total a team has gone down with in the last 15 seasons at least.

[Jayram]

Even if our form remains as poor as it's been we'll still get around ~8 points from the last 9 games, that would put us on 53 points which would likely be safe and above the highest total a team has gone down with in the last 15 seasons at least.

 

What a damning indictment of our so called progress under NC this is that we are now talking about how many points we need to survive. Personally I don't think we will go down but its criminal that this should even be a consideration. Sad days indeed.

[Albert]

What a damning indictment of our so called progress under NC this is that we are now talking about how many points we need to survive. Personally I don't think we will go down but its criminal that this should even be a consideration. Sad days indeed.

Considering that we've spent most of the season in the top half of the table, and have spent more of the season thinking about the playoffs than even thinking about a bottom half finish I'd be tempted to think that it's more a case of people worrying because there's not much else to do. In simple terms it would take a ridiculous set of circumstances to see us even in the relegation battle proper.

[notts_ram]

What a damning indictment of our so called progress under NC this is that we are now talking about how many points we need to survive. Personally I don't think we will go down but its criminal that this should even be a consideration. Sad days indeed.

 

I think it's more of us being in an over inflated league position for the first half/two thirds of the season and now we are experiencing a degree of normalising which reflects our true position over the entire season not just a portion of it. 

[mozza]

Either way, we've been absolutely dire, lately.

 

The season has been like an extended version of the majority of our games,

 

started off reasonable, the odd purple patch, sat back a bit, hangin' on for our lives

 

at the end, typical game/season.

[Albert]

I think it's more of us being in an over inflated league position for the first half/two thirds of the season and now we are experiencing a degree of normalising which reflects our true position over the entire season not just a portion of it.

Seriously? What a load of nonsense! Normalising what? The results haven't been great recently, but we haven't been close to poor. If anything what's happening right now is against the trend, it certainly isn't "normalising" anything.

[Ramarena]

How many on here thought we were top 6 material. Sam Rush really thought it at the fans forum. Its all gone Pete Tong since then. How many points will we get from the next 3 games !

If SR thought it and Appleby was banging the top 6 drum last summer. Then how will that affect the managers position this summer?

[ramblur]

how likely is it that we wont pick up a win or a few draws?

over the last 8 games - where we haven't won- only Peterborough has managed to gain 1 point per game more than us. Wolves 0.87 points per game more than us.

if we had won had drawn one of the losses or won one of the draws these drop by .125 points per game, or 0.25 points per.

on recent form if we draw a couple or win one it will be very unlikely that any if the bottom three will overtake us.

that's without looking at the other 6 teams that are below us and would have to overtake us as well

It's highly unlikely that we won't pick up a win or a few draws,but that's completely irrelevant to the points made.I also fail to see the relevance of comparing other teams' form to our own over the last 8 games,a complete red herring.

 

Your 4 'ifs' centred on our gaining  0,1,2 or 3 points and clearly defined the tasks of the bottom 3 in attempting to overhaul us,for each scenario.These ranged from slightly less to slightly more than a point per game over 9 games,something all 3 had managed over the somewhat longer haul of 37 games.All 3 had managed slightly better than a win every 4 games in that period,which would give a likelihood of 2 wins in 9 games for starters.

 

To suggest that any of the scenarios were "virtually impossible" is patently ridiculous,even more so when you consider that the likelihood is that only 1 of the 3 might have to overhaul us.Quite rightly,you mention the other 6 teams below us.Four of these (including the one in the least favourable position) have a game in hand,and one has 2 games in hand.Whatever task the bottom 3 might have,the tasks for the other 6 are way easier.

[top 6 finish]

We are in the period that Sir Alex calls "squeaky bum"time.Statistics count for nothing.Recent past results

tell a story,like for example the DET printing the last 10 games form table-we are 23rd.

Our toughest games coming up are the ones where the teams need to win.They are the teams in the

relegation zone plus Leicester who are at the other end.The matches we should get the points from

are Blackburn,Leeds,Millwall,etc.Its all down to bottle now and who wants it the most.The toughest

games of our season are coming up now.

[notts_ram]

Seriously? What a load of nonsense! Normalising what? The results haven't been great recently, but we haven't been close to poor. If anything what's happening right now is against the trend, it certainly isn't "normalising" anything.

 

Our league position at the end of the season will reflect where our standard of play over the course of the season merited. You can't exclude this poor run because we had injuries, all teams have injuries, the same as all teams have players banned, dodgy penalties given against them or perfectly good goals disallowed for being offside. We will deserve to be where we finish up in the final league table, and at this rate it will be bottom half.