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Is a relegation battle really on the cards !

Curtains

By Curtains
in Derby County Forum

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Albert

Albert

Posted
Posted

Our league position at the end of the season will reflect where our standard of play over the course of the season merited. You can't exclude this poor run because we had injuries, all teams have injuries, the same as all teams have players banned, dodgy penalties given against them or perfectly good goals disallowed for being offside. We will deserve to be where we finish up in the final league table, and at this rate it will be bottom half.

So wait, then you're saying something different then. A couple of wins could see us back around 12th again, you seemed to suggest that we didn't deserve that.
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Albert

Albert

Posted
Posted

Bristol 1 up at Wolves with 3000 away fans. Should be tense next week at this rate

I would say, don't worry about it, don't panic, but let's be honest here, see me on the football pitch:

"What?! The ball?! Bugger bugger bugger bugger bugger!! Dispossessed... goal, ffff..."

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Albert

Albert

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Everything not everybody jaws....but hey Sheff Wed are losing and so are the Red Dogs.                GET YOUR GRAPHS OUT .

 

I HOPE WE BEAT THE FOXES

Do I have to get me graphs out?

Ugh... what do you want? Points per game, league position, a long post that you won't bother reading?

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Ambitious

Ambitious

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Posted

Just 2 wins in the last 15 games. Or even 16 cos we will lose today.

 

 

Yeah, but to think we have outplayed many of them teams over the course of them 15 games and it just seems a bit ridiculous. I thought people were just being pedantic until I looked at the league table, I didn't realise how close we were - wasn't we 12/15 points clear? bah, I'm sure we'll be fine but just throws a grey cloud over what has been a pretty impressive (footballing wise, not results) season, I've only seen us lose 3 times this season - probably why it seems bizarre to me! 

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davenportram

davenportram

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Posted

It's highly unlikely that we won't pick up a win or a few draws,but that's completely irrelevant to the points made.I also fail to see the relevance of comparing other teams' form to our own over the last 8 games,a complete red herring.

Your 4 'ifs' centred on our gaining 0,1,2 or 3 points and clearly defined the tasks of the bottom 3 in attempting to overhaul us,for each scenario.These ranged from slightly less to slightly more than a point per game over 9 games,something all 3 had managed over the somewhat longer haul of 37 games.All 3 had managed slightly better than a win every 4 games in that period,which would give a likelihood of 2 wins in 9 games for starters.

To suggest that any of the scenarios were "virtually impossible" is patently ridiculous,even more so when you consider that the likelihood is that only 1 of the 3 might have to overhaul us.Quite rightly,you mention the other 6 teams below us.Four of these (including the one in the least favourable position) have a game in hand,and one has 2 games in hand.Whatever task the bottom 3 might have,the tasks for the other 6 are way easier.

if your going to use form ovr the 37 games to date it skews it even more in our favour. We have averaged well over a point a game compared to their barely over a point a game. Making it even harder for them to overtake us.

with nine games left using the form over the last 8 is a better option.

we average 0.5 points per game (with no wins)

over 9 games we would get 4.5 points (lets call it 4)

one of the bottom three would need to get 11 points to overtake us. Or 3 wins two draws and 4 losses. Possible bit I say very unlikely

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