Ellafella

1Wildsmith 6 Had Jack to do. A traffic cone would’ve sufficed today. Had a shot to save in the 67th minute only.

24Nyambe 7 Strong and some lovely passes. Proving to be a vg signing.

35Nelson 7.5 Granite. 

6Cashin 7.5 Solid oak. 

3Forsyth 7 Reliable & consistent; needs to re-produce his Mr Whippy crosses more.

Wilson 6 Late show. 

12Smith 6 Does the job but we need more than that from midfield.

Bird 🦅 6 Great that he’s back & got to stretch his legs. We need Bird back up to speed asap.

22Fornah 7 Lithe, good feet and dominant. Can he start scoring? Needs to shoot more.

11Méndez-Laing 7.0 Dominant threat and should’ve scored in minute 1.

10Waghorn 5.0 Squandered a golden opportunity by mis-directing a routine header.

Washington 6 Late show.

7Barkhuizen 6.5 Busy bee and nuisanced Cambridge but in vain.

Sibley 5.5 Late show. Should’ve done better than a weak shot when put in by NML

9Collins 5.0 Practically invisible against a well drilled defence.

Could’ve and should’ve but didn’t. Solid everywhere but a barbless attack. When is JJ back? 

Half-marks allowed; please rate all subs. Closes Thursday @ 18:00. Results by Thursday 22:00. Average is 6.00. Therefore, when a sub steps on the pitch he is on 6 - that's the baseline. Also indicate ATG (at the game) or TV (Tv)

1Wildsmith

24Nyambe

35Nelson

6Cashin

3Forsyth

Wilson

12Smith

Bird 🦅 

22Fornah

11Méndez-Laing

10Waghorn

Washington

7Barkhuizen

Sibley

9Collins

45 minutes ago, Carnero said:

Is there an easy way for you to see how the figures look if say the 3 highest and 3 lowest rating were removed each game (or even just the 3 lowest after a defeat!) as some players averages are falsely low due to people awarding 0s and 1s to players that they just don't rate (such as Collins)?

Thanks @Carnero; I’ll look at this and get back to you soon-ish. 

1 minute ago, Jimbo Ram said:

Interesting that Cashin scores are so low 🤔

After the first four games in the league - LWLW. 

43 minutes ago, hintonsboots said:

Excellent work.

Can you explain the rules of Go Johnny Go Go ?

37 minutes ago, hintonsboots said:

Excellent work.

Can you explain the rules of Go Johnny Go Go ?

Start on a pair. Declare any ace. Unless you have a King. Then lead with the 3 of Clubs…otherwise hold the 9…

1 minute ago, RoyMac5 said:

Is there a 'known effect' for marking goal-scorers more highly, given that goals win games. Or is there a similar 'bias' for clean sheets and keepers and, is that how it works? I'm not a stats type person tbh.

 

Very good question @RoyMac5. I will look into this and get back soon. We may need to see more games yet before this emerges in the data but I do suspect we will see the goal scorer effect - may also see the GK effect too. Thanks for this question @RoyMac5.

6 minutes ago, jameso said:

Very interesting @Ellafella - whether a labour of love or not, thanks for all the effort you’ve gone to.

Maybe as a side project in future years we could have a prediction competition on which players will end the season with the highest standard deviation! (Collins seems an obvious candidate… I would have expected Bird too as one who divides opinion)

That’s a good idea @jameso; I’m looking forward to when we are 18 games in and I can start to incorporate SPC analysis into the ratings because they will flag up statistically significant changes in ratings and illustrate player form. Before then of course we will see changes with regard to Nelson and Collins, as well as Waghorn. 
 

In the current analysis, it’s clear that Rooney and Thompson were set for impressive seasons potentially until injury intervened. Cruel luck on both of them but especially Thompson who lost his way last season but who started the season like a man possessed and determined to hit the heights again. 

20 minutes ago, inter politics said:

Where are the running averages?! Warne will be disappointed 

I think he keeps his own spreadsheet on those 😲

Thanks to those of you who take the trouble of providing your player ratings. Figure 1 and Table 1 gives the running average after the first 4 league games of this season {Wigan, Burton Albion, Oxford Utd and Fleetwood}. I will in due course update to show all of the games but it is good to see how the ratings change over time. A brief summary:

See Figure 1 & Table 1 above. After 4 games, Rooney topped the average rating table with 7.13 {he of course only played in 2 games before his knee injury}. The first column in Table 1 and the chart is sorted in descending order so as you can see Forsyth is second best, followed by Thompson, Wilson and so on. The "average rating" is the average score out of 10 that forum members have given to players after each game. Some players have played fewer games; the average score is a 6.0 so those players with a score above 6.0 (Bird upwards in Column 1, Table 1) are "above average" after 4 games. The other columns in Table 1 show variations around the average. Ratings are of course essentially subjective and what is notable even within games is that the same player can receive quite a range of scores depending upon the poster. The Standard Deviation (SD)  is one form of average deviation from the mean of ratings received by the player. So, it's notable that Rooney has the smallest SD (0.51) suggesting there has been a better consensus amongst posters of his average rating than say for Collins, who has attracted the largest SD. In part, that's because Collins was awarded a score of 1/10 by one poster for 1 game. The maximum & minimum show the highest and lowest ratings that the player has attracted {and hence the Range}. I will resist analyzing this to death; it's not a pure measure of performance; player favourites, and the confounding effect of match result along with other "noise" will detract from it being anyway near perfect, but the logic is also that some kind of consensus should emerge the more ratings are provided as the season unfolds. 

The next analysis that I'll post should be interesting because of course some players have attracted significantly higher ratings in the later games (eg Nelson, Waghorn).

If you click on the images, you should see a clearer pop-out. Any additional analyses requests, just let me know. I will get into greater detail as the ratings build. 

@Boycie or @David - please can this be pinned near the top so that I can add to it to build the picture as the season progresses.     

Thanks to those of you who provided player ratings for the Burton Albion match; Apologies that it has taken so long to analyse the data - tempus fugit & all that. Can you even actually remember the game?

Fig 2 shows that statistically James Collins was MotM with an average rating of 7.82. Corey Smith was runner-up with 7.41 & Birdy (my personal MotM) 3rd with 7.14. Team average rating was 6.56 (dotted blue line in chart above); 4 players (Collins, Smith, Bird & Forsyth) were above the team average and everyone from Washington & below were therefore below average. Off the top of my head, that's a fairly typical picture, even with just 11 ratings for this game (there's usually about 22).

Table 1 gives the raters figures in aggregated form. The rater is shown in the first column, and their individual ratings for players along the adjacent 16 columns. There's an aggregate figure for the rater in the final column. The RAG (Red-Amber-Green) rating is by rater showing red for the lowest rating player and dark green for the highest rated player. So you can see that amongst raters there was quite a consensus insofaras Collins, Smith & Bird are consistently rated green by most raters with combinations of red/amber for the other players. 

The aggregated range is quite high though - 14 - which illustrates how different raters are "differently-generous" in their scoring. @@Ilsonram12 gave the most conservative scores and at the other extreme @Topram gave the most generous ("Happy Clapper" or what! 😆). Who is the most reliable? Well that's just opinion.  

 I will catch-up with all the other games very soon; and I am going to produce an "running aggregate" and have @Boycie, my favourite Moderator, pin that to the top of the Forum, so that we can keep a far closer eye on Poster's player ratings. 

What's interesting for me right now is that James Collins, who does get stick (as a lot of players do), is starting to emerge this season as a highly-rated (statistically) player which is a tad surprising; but I'm very pleased for him. Nelson too is starting to shine (statistically) after a settling-in period. 

Keep your eyes posted for more ratings results later this week. 

Any questions / additional analyses just ask.  

NB If you click on the chart/table image, you get a "pop-out" graphic which is easier to read. 

Ping

1 hour ago, Mucker1884 said:

Absolutely love this.
It's almost like they dedicated both goals to me personally.

Regards,
Mr 1884

If you look carefully @Mucker1884 Collo actually mouths a message to you . 

14 hours ago, inter politics said:

Did Simmo get any cheers from us today?

No; it didn’t happen. I suspect he was less than happy with the outcome to engage with fans.

1Wildsmith 6; 2 good & 2 bad: 2 good acrobatic saves to keep out hard drives & 2 moments of fortune when saved by the woodwork.

24Nyambe 6.5: solid, strong, physical. Improves our solidity.

35Nelson 8: Class. Tackled hard, headed hard, blocked 🚫 hard. Read the game. 

6Cashin 7: zeberdee like spring to win numerous headers; some sloppy passes & a rugby tackle when in a tangle & yellowed for it.

3Forsyth 6.5: Reliable metronome - back & forth but sloppy passes twice.

11Méndez-Laing 6.5: electric pace at times & credit for the assist.

Washington 6: Late legs show

12Smith 6: Tidied up the scraps but we need more presence & menace in the engine room.

22Fornah 7: Strong, power and Fornah-forays stand out.

17Sibley 6: blind alleys and little impact.

7Barkhuizen 7: Fresh legs late on but supplied intelligent zip and passing tidiness

10Waghorn 6 Lots of tangle-foot and forlorn turns into side streets & brick walls

Wilson 7 Neat tidy and nimble and his press was key in winning the pen

9Collins 8 MOTM Vey industrial & industrious. Took his goal well. Won the penalty through sheer lost-cause chasing then thwacked it Charlie George into the roof. Suspect Warne sat him on the front seat of the coach on the journey home. 
 

3 points clean sheet 2 away goals yet I still didn’t have that euphoria at 90 minutes of a win in somebody else’s back yard. I can’t recall 3 combination passes nor any period of Derby control; although we looked promising at the off. Instead we got served up “street football” and Collins was the epitome - guts, chaser of lost causes, kidology and roughing up the opponents at any opportunity. Does this brand have a future? It may seem churlish but I hope not. 

Half-marks allowed; please rate all subs. Closes Thursday @ 18:00. Results by Thursday 22:00. Average is 6.00. Therefore, when a sub steps on the pitch he is on 6 - that's the baseline. Also indicate ATG (at the game) or TV (Tv)
 

1Wildsmith

24Nyambe

35Nelson

6Cashin

3Forsyth

11Méndez-Laing

Washington

12Smith

22Fornah

17Sibley

7Barkhuizen 

10Waghorn

Wilson

9Collins

Just now, Andrew3000 said:

Why are we vulnerable there do you think? 2 dcms!

They’re getting through us on the break so shape is wrong. All right sided. 

1 minute ago, Ellafella said:

I wouldn’t say we’re bossing it. Clear pen for them and they’ve hit woodwork twice. We’re very vulnerable down the middle.

Need Fornah at CDM . 

1 minute ago, jameso said:

I know we haven't been great at home this season but can you imagine Carlisle coming to PP and bossing the game like this? Why does it make so much difference being away? So far this puts me in mind of Burton away... last season.

I wouldn’t say we’re bossing it. Clear pen for them and they’ve hit woodwork twice. We’re very vulnerable down the middle.

45 minutes ago, Anag Ram said:

What’s the game like?
Has the ball burst yet?

Kick and rush. We’re very vulnerable through the middle as usual.

8 minutes ago, Van der MoodHoover said:

VdM seniors were there and brought back a piece of the pitch. Apparently it was completely relaid at the end of that season and the crowd all charged on for souvenirs at the end of the game.

I suspect @loweman2 has got a lot of it…😆