Ken Tram

Required average is 1.62 not 1.65

We need 11+ points from every batch of 7 games, so 11/21 points available.
Requires an average of 1.65 ppg
Our current ppg is 1.28

A science degree

Win 2, draw 1, lose 1 is 50% win ratio and 1.75 points a game. So it absolutely isn’t necessary to have a 55% win ratio to get 1.7 points a game. 
 
looking at our recent form in points per game
Last 10 : 1.5
Last 8 :  1.75
Last 6 : 1.67
Last 4 :  2.5
The trajectory is broadly upward, albeit with no real pressure.
If we go with 1.7points per game, that’s 46 points rounded down from 46.7.
Be interesting to see how it goes for the next 4 games!!!

Do I need a science degree to read this topic?? 

Up to 20.5 points now, based on -.5 for a defeat, +.5 for a draw and +2.5 for a win this season. That's, in effect 2.5 points from safety but having played a game more.

What I want to see is how quickly (if at all) we can get in to the relegation zone proper - rather than the sin bin we are in now. Once we are within 4-6 points of safety, if we have a handful of games remaining it gets interesting. 
 
We are on a high after 3 wins. It’s so hard to be rational, but If that becomes 6 wins we will be in a “normal” relegation scrap .. buts it’s a big if. Can we do it ? What happens if 2 or 3 key players leave ? Have we got another kick in the guts coming or not ? 

Doesn't matter what the ppg requirement is, we just need to beat the teams around us (at least not lose to them) and continue to better their results in every chunk of 5 or 6 games to keep chipping away.
If the 21 point deduction is spread evenly over the season and both ourselves and those we are chasing match the 1st half of the season we require to convert 2 defeats or draws into wins to be out of the bottom 3, I'm sure we can all look at the results so far and see where that's possible, after all, we have the worst record of losing points from winning/drawing positions (-17), and several of those were very early season, Jagielka not playing/match fit, no Knight, no CKR, restrictions on who we could use etc etc. Bielik to come back.
We are in a much better position on the pitch than we were for the 1st quarter of the season so it is perfectly possible to get the extra points.

We just need to keep chipping away..in reality the current target is tracking at 46 points...if you spread the deduction out across the season we are at 20 points..so right in the mix..

Not far off the first half of the season then.
7W, 10D, 7L over 24 games.
To become 10W, 7D, 5L over 22 games.

22 games left have assumed we need 47 points to survive which means we need 37 points from 22 games or 1.7 ppg rounding up.
So if we won 12 of those games and drew one that would give us those 37 points which would be 12 wins out of 22 games = 55%.
Of course there are other permutations to this but this is the most simplistic one, for example if we only won ten games we would then have to draw 7 other games meaning only 5 defeats all season or if we only won 8 games then effectively we could not lose in the remaining ones. 
So 12 wins out of 22 and it doesn't matter what we do in the remaining 9 games as long as we draw one. 
 

I’ve just tried the link I sent you in Google calendar on my iPhone and it asks for those permissions too. 
If that genuinely concerns you, you could try doing it as a two stage activity by adding the calendar to your Google account and then on your phone, selecting that calendar to be shown. 
it’s worth knowing that by default, a calendar set up in Google calendar has sync OFF by default. 
To check, go here: https://calendar.google.com/calendar/u/0/syncselect
One final thing, you can set up notification for changes to the calendar when seeing it up.
 Hope that helps in some way. 

Interesting. I’ve just clicked on it and it downloads all matches to the end of this season and it’s up to date on my calendar, which is where I copied the link from. 

If you follow the link from here it tells you how to set it up for various devices, including how to make sure it updates properly on changes:
https://fixtur.es/en/team/Derby-county

I went to Man U v Derby in April 1997 in the Stretford end. We went 1 nil ,kept quiet ,but then 2 nil with Wanchope's wonder goal I went berserk. Thankfully everybody was oo.k.

It won’t actually do that. It’s just the permission it needs to edit any fixture changes in that calendar. Been using those off the official site for almost a decade with zero problems. 

I know it's not a calendar, but there is a direct link to the DCFC (Website) Fixtures page, from the very top of this and every dcfcfans forum page.
 
I've had the fixtures calendar on my iphone for years.  Maybe 10 at a guess, if not longer?  Can't even remember for certain how I first set it up, but I think it was a link from DCFC themselves?  It auto updates any changes, and renews each season... and nobody has ever removed or altered any of my other calendars.
 
EDIT:
Just checked my calendars on my mobile... the DCFC fixture calendar is indeed under the  stanza banner.  Never had a problem with it.

What are they putting  in the water in Kent ?

I’ve been using this site for a while with no problems. 
https://ics.fixtur.es/v2/Derby-county.ics?e93f8ee0b8af82b5
 
it updates regularly when times change. 
 
I did write my own a couple of years back that emailed me when a fixture changed. Was a Google script that screen scraped from bbc fixtures, checking for changes every 1/2 hr. Bit of a hack but had the advantage of telling me about changes. I can see if I can find it if you like. 

Thanks ver much for the link to the games on the Derby Site. Likwise, I can always get the fixtures from asking Google "Derby County Fixtures"!
I just wanted to avoid typing all of the matches into my calendar. The Stanza weblink seems great - except they require a permission that allows them to read an delete any of my calendars - and I cannot risk that.
If Derby managed it - or the forum!!! - we could have an agreed format. e.g. "How to display the games, and what to do when matches change time, and if on the forum - the key things that people ask like "tickets available" and "on Rams TV or Sky" ...
Maybe I'll give it ago if no-one else has done it ...

Extract from dcfc website… tickets not available at the ground on the day…….
Off Sale Dates
Tickets will go off sale online at 12pm on Wednesday 22nd December 2021.
Tickets will go off sale from the Ticket Office at 3pm on Friday 31st December 2021.
Pay On The Day
Reading have confirmed that on the day sales will NOT be available.
 

Then we twist AND shake!

Maybe, but I don’t think Reading will be feeling too safe if we beat them tomorrow.  Hopefully they play for a point, just to be undone by a Laurence worldy in the last minute.  He is due one.

In light of events over the past two years, my thinking would be duck the FA Cup. Play our strongest side then rest the lot of them for the Cov game. I'd put out our junior cubs side out if were up to me* or make up some wild Covid blag and forfeit the game. duck integrity when those around us show none**.
 
*and if something like that actually existed ?‍♀️
** soz, bit poorly and sleep deprived so rather grumpy today 

Hull imo are the 3rd team we need to catch, Reading & Cardiff have enough to be safe.
Can we beat Hull at home and win 10pts more than them in the remaining games?
Can we beat Barnsley at home and win 1pt more than them in the remaining games?
Can we beat PBoro at home and win 6pts more than them in the remaining games?

Won't be the first time we've gone bust this season ?