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duncanjwitham

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  1. Like
    duncanjwitham got a reaction from i-Ram in Stephen Pearce on Radio Derby 6pm Tuesday   
    That's certainly my take on it.  We overcommitted financially, with Morris was happily covering the shortfall each month, up until he decided he couldn't afford it and stopped.  The EFL issues (on top of accumulating debt) basically prevented a sale, and then a combination of those 2 factors plus COVID pushed us over the edge.  There's no super secret conspiracy, or pots of missing money to find or anything.
    Regarding Pearce, the only major issues you can have with him are the overcommitting and the amortization method stuff.  If Morris had committed to covering the shortfall, then I'm not sure what Pearce was supposed to do about it.  Almost every football club in the country is reliant on their owner putting money in to keep the lights on, we weren't unusual in that respect (and are still in that kind of position now, to some degree).  And for what it's worth, I suspect the NDAs are mostly around this stuff - what guarantees Morris gave to the club about putting money in, and whether he stuck to them or not.
    And of course, the amortization method was signed off by at least 4 separate sets of accountants, including the EFL's own choice of independent forensic accountant, so it's hard to pin blame on Pearce for that.
  2. Clap
    duncanjwitham got a reaction from Magicman in Corey Blackett-Taylor - Signed on Loan/Permanent in Summer   
    I think that's kind of part of it.  He was supposed to be the big marquee signing, the hotshot in-form goal-scoring winger, the missing piece of the puzzle to kick us on a level (or it certainly felt like that was the intention from the outside).  Now, instead of that, he's suddenly not fit, then he's injured, then he's playing but not really fit.  Plus he doesn't really seem to fit the gas-out, aggressive pressing type of football that we want to play either.  So it kind of feels like, instead of blowing our budget on a difference-maker, we've wasted on it on someone who's struggling to even get in the side.
  3. Clap
    duncanjwitham got a reaction from angieram in Stephen Pearce on Radio Derby 6pm Tuesday   
    That's certainly my take on it.  We overcommitted financially, with Morris was happily covering the shortfall each month, up until he decided he couldn't afford it and stopped.  The EFL issues (on top of accumulating debt) basically prevented a sale, and then a combination of those 2 factors plus COVID pushed us over the edge.  There's no super secret conspiracy, or pots of missing money to find or anything.
    Regarding Pearce, the only major issues you can have with him are the overcommitting and the amortization method stuff.  If Morris had committed to covering the shortfall, then I'm not sure what Pearce was supposed to do about it.  Almost every football club in the country is reliant on their owner putting money in to keep the lights on, we weren't unusual in that respect (and are still in that kind of position now, to some degree).  And for what it's worth, I suspect the NDAs are mostly around this stuff - what guarantees Morris gave to the club about putting money in, and whether he stuck to them or not.
    And of course, the amortization method was signed off by at least 4 separate sets of accountants, including the EFL's own choice of independent forensic accountant, so it's hard to pin blame on Pearce for that.
  4. Clap
    duncanjwitham got a reaction from FlyBritishMidland in Stephen Pearce on Radio Derby 6pm Tuesday   
    That's certainly my take on it.  We overcommitted financially, with Morris was happily covering the shortfall each month, up until he decided he couldn't afford it and stopped.  The EFL issues (on top of accumulating debt) basically prevented a sale, and then a combination of those 2 factors plus COVID pushed us over the edge.  There's no super secret conspiracy, or pots of missing money to find or anything.
    Regarding Pearce, the only major issues you can have with him are the overcommitting and the amortization method stuff.  If Morris had committed to covering the shortfall, then I'm not sure what Pearce was supposed to do about it.  Almost every football club in the country is reliant on their owner putting money in to keep the lights on, we weren't unusual in that respect (and are still in that kind of position now, to some degree).  And for what it's worth, I suspect the NDAs are mostly around this stuff - what guarantees Morris gave to the club about putting money in, and whether he stuck to them or not.
    And of course, the amortization method was signed off by at least 4 separate sets of accountants, including the EFL's own choice of independent forensic accountant, so it's hard to pin blame on Pearce for that.
  5. Like
    duncanjwitham got a reaction from cannable in Stephen Pearce on Radio Derby 6pm Tuesday   
    That's certainly my take on it.  We overcommitted financially, with Morris was happily covering the shortfall each month, up until he decided he couldn't afford it and stopped.  The EFL issues (on top of accumulating debt) basically prevented a sale, and then a combination of those 2 factors plus COVID pushed us over the edge.  There's no super secret conspiracy, or pots of missing money to find or anything.
    Regarding Pearce, the only major issues you can have with him are the overcommitting and the amortization method stuff.  If Morris had committed to covering the shortfall, then I'm not sure what Pearce was supposed to do about it.  Almost every football club in the country is reliant on their owner putting money in to keep the lights on, we weren't unusual in that respect (and are still in that kind of position now, to some degree).  And for what it's worth, I suspect the NDAs are mostly around this stuff - what guarantees Morris gave to the club about putting money in, and whether he stuck to them or not.
    And of course, the amortization method was signed off by at least 4 separate sets of accountants, including the EFL's own choice of independent forensic accountant, so it's hard to pin blame on Pearce for that.
  6. Like
    duncanjwitham got a reaction from Comrade 86 in Exeter City v Derby - Match Day Thread   
    We've had 8 players start at least 75% of our league games - Wildsmith, Nelson, Cashin, Forsyth, Bird, Hourihane, Collins, NML.  I reckon that's a much better indicator than the number of unique XIs we've put out.  
  7. Clap
    duncanjwitham got a reaction from David Graham Brown in Exeter City v Derby - Match Day Thread   
    The mad thing is, both sides are kind of right.  We've over-played our core players during the first half of the season, and they're starting to pick up little niggles and miss games, leading to the uncertainty over the line-up now.
  8. Cheers
    duncanjwitham got a reaction from May Contain Nuts in Exeter City v Derby - Match Day Thread   
    We've had 8 players start at least 75% of our league games - Wildsmith, Nelson, Cashin, Forsyth, Bird, Hourihane, Collins, NML.  I reckon that's a much better indicator than the number of unique XIs we've put out.  
  9. Like
    duncanjwitham got a reaction from IlsonDerby in xG - hype or valuable stat?   
    That only holds true if you think that all shots (or shots on target) are equally as likely to result in goals.  As soon as you accept that some shots are more likely to result in goals than other shots, then xG is potentially a better stat that just shots on its own.
    There are absolutely some types of games where shots (on target) is going to be a very good predictor of the actual outcome, because in general the better team is more likely to have more shots and more likely to score some of them.  But there are also games where that is not going to be true.  For example, games where you've got one team dominating possession against a team sitting in a low block (which we've seen plenty of over the years!), the team on the ball is probably going to have a fair few shots, but many of them will be pot-shots from distance or snatched half chances under pressure, that are unlikely to result in goals.  The other team is going to have much fewer shots, but they are probably going to be much better chances, where they've won the ball back an counter-attacked or something. 
    xG is just an attempt to factor all that stuff in.  You can see it in the scores/stats you've posted above.  Luton had nearly 3 times as many shots as Sheff Utd, but the xG is almost the same.  That's very clearly saying that Luton were creating a lot of poor chances, vs Sheff Utd creating a few very good ones.  The Fulham vs Bournemouth game is similar.  I haven't watched those games, but those xG stats are telling more about the game than just the shots ones on their own are.  xG is certainly not perfect, and there's definitely an element of opinion in it (someone is having to make a value judgment somewhere about what a 'good' chance is, even if that is just down to the choice of methodology for calculating it), but to me, it's telling me stuff I didn't already know, so its useful.
  10. Haha
    duncanjwitham got a reaction from Ramarena in Derby v Shrewsbury Town - Match Day Thread   
    We spent the whole summer recruiting for a back 3 and wingbacks, only to abandon it after a few games.  So of course we spent the whole of January recruiting wingers, only to change to wingbacks after 2 games...
  11. Haha
    duncanjwitham got a reaction from hintonsboots in Derby v Shrewsbury Town - Match Day Thread   
    We spent the whole summer recruiting for a back 3 and wingbacks, only to abandon it after a few games.  So of course we spent the whole of January recruiting wingers, only to change to wingbacks after 2 games...
  12. Like
    duncanjwitham got a reaction from Eoghan1884 in Derby v Shrewsbury Town - Match Day Thread   
    Radio Derby didn't go into specifics, but did say Cashin's injury wasn't too bad.  They implied Vickers was a worse one.
  13. Haha
    duncanjwitham got a reaction from RoyMac5 in Derby v Shrewsbury Town - Match Day Thread   
    We spent the whole summer recruiting for a back 3 and wingbacks, only to abandon it after a few games.  So of course we spent the whole of January recruiting wingers, only to change to wingbacks after 2 games...
  14. Haha
    duncanjwitham got a reaction from Ghost of Clough in Derby v Shrewsbury Town - Match Day Thread   
    We spent the whole summer recruiting for a back 3 and wingbacks, only to abandon it after a few games.  So of course we spent the whole of January recruiting wingers, only to change to wingbacks after 2 games...
  15. Clap
    duncanjwitham got a reaction from Ramarena in Derby v Shrewsbury Town - Match Day Thread   
    Could easily be a flat four too.  NML and Ward as wingers.
  16. Haha
    duncanjwitham got a reaction from Ramarena in Charlton Athletic v Derby - Match Day Thread   
    Spend the last 3 weeks in a panic because we don't have a right back, then as soon as we actually have one, switch to a formation that doesn't use one... #JustPaulWarneThings
  17. Haha
    duncanjwitham got a reaction from angieram in Charlton Athletic v Derby - Match Day Thread   
    Spend the last 3 weeks in a panic because we don't have a right back, then as soon as we actually have one, switch to a formation that doesn't use one... #JustPaulWarneThings
  18. Haha
    duncanjwitham got a reaction from Zag zig in Charlton Athletic v Derby - Match Day Thread   
    Spend the last 3 weeks in a panic because we don't have a right back, then as soon as we actually have one, switch to a formation that doesn't use one... #JustPaulWarneThings
  19. Haha
    duncanjwitham got a reaction from BPV in Charlton Athletic v Derby - Match Day Thread   
    Spend the last 3 weeks in a panic because we don't have a right back, then as soon as we actually have one, switch to a formation that doesn't use one... #JustPaulWarneThings
  20. Haha
    duncanjwitham got a reaction from Sparkle in Charlton Athletic v Derby - Match Day Thread   
    Spend the last 3 weeks in a panic because we don't have a right back, then as soon as we actually have one, switch to a formation that doesn't use one... #JustPaulWarneThings
  21. Haha
    duncanjwitham got a reaction from MackworthRamIsGod in Charlton Athletic v Derby - Match Day Thread   
    Spend the last 3 weeks in a panic because we don't have a right back, then as soon as we actually have one, switch to a formation that doesn't use one... #JustPaulWarneThings
  22. Haha
    duncanjwitham got a reaction from Ghost of Clough in Charlton Athletic v Derby - Match Day Thread   
    Spend the last 3 weeks in a panic because we don't have a right back, then as soon as we actually have one, switch to a formation that doesn't use one... #JustPaulWarneThings
  23. Haha
    duncanjwitham got a reaction from RoyMac5 in Charlton Athletic v Derby - Match Day Thread   
    Spend the last 3 weeks in a panic because we don't have a right back, then as soon as we actually have one, switch to a formation that doesn't use one... #JustPaulWarneThings
  24. Haha
    duncanjwitham got a reaction from Ian Buxton's Bat in Charlton Athletic v Derby - Match Day Thread   
    Spend the last 3 weeks in a panic because we don't have a right back, then as soon as we actually have one, switch to a formation that doesn't use one... #JustPaulWarneThings
  25. Haha
    duncanjwitham got a reaction from Chester40 in Charlton Athletic v Derby - Match Day Thread   
    Spend the last 3 weeks in a panic because we don't have a right back, then as soon as we actually have one, switch to a formation that doesn't use one... #JustPaulWarneThings
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