Who could continue the journey?

[StantonRam]

The conclusion that can be drawn from watching overperforming teams end up in the PL (Burnley, Norwich etc, the so called "yo yo" teams, prime example probably being West Brom) is that the momentum to be gained from having players who all know each other's games very well can take a club a long way.  In the last decade we have had quite a few examples of teams that have been promoted from League 1 (or even League 2, Bournemouth as the classic example) and then from the Championship and into the PL within a few years afterwards with pretty much the same players (Ipswich this season for example).

That, however, is often when things come unstuck.  It's also a proven fact that newly promoted teams have had to dig deep financially to strengthen in the PL or go straight back down.  This season, for example, Luton and Forest have spent big (too big in Forest's case) and are in with a chance of staying up, whereas Sheff Utd and Burnley have not and look destined for the drop.  In 2007-8 we most definitely fell into this category, and we all saw the results of trying to stay in the PL on the cheap.  It simply can't be done.

Our more experienced players probably could cut it in the Championship, but by the time we went up again (if we did) they would have retired.

The younger bunch (Cashin etc) are a mixed bag, but again I would trust them to compete in the Championship, at least initially.

Ergo, the first season in the Championship would be a period of transition.

Apart from the administration and the embarrassment of being in League 1 for 2 seasons, perhaps the biggest setback has been having to sell so many good players (Bird and Knight to name but 2), whereas had we stayed in the Championship they might still be here.

 

[Gabby'sThighs]

If the goal is just to avoid relegation, quite a few of the squad are good enough but I think a lot depends on good recruitment across the squad. Well effectively need a new midfield

I think we'll have another mixed bag summer of free transfers as we just don't have the budget for big transfer fees.

Wildsmith, Nyambe/Wilson/Ward, Cashin, Nelson, Forsyth/Elder/Sibley is a backline which could keep us up - we need another CB and LB/LWB though. We'll see if Forsyth stays, wouldn't surprise me if he did but impractical for him to be first choice.
NML, CBT, Barks, are good enough. Gayle is good enough. Collins...he's been great this season but I don't know if his skill set will work in the Champ. Washington - I'm still in two minds about him, given how fractured a season he's had.

We can reasonably assume Hourihane, Waghorn, and Smith will be off, we'll see about Gayle & Collins, Bird is gone, Ebou is almost certainly gone, Wildsmith may go, Bradley should be pushed out asap.

Interestingly, I've just noticed this Insta post from Korey Smith on a channel called lifeafterfootballofficial...can't say I really understand Instagram though: https://www.instagram.com/lifeafterfootballofficial/p/C5YQeRMgBF6/?img_index=1

Edited April 8 by Gabby'sThighs

[mwram1973]

5 hours ago, MadAmster said:

That might just be because, according to PW at the recent Fan Forum, no contracts will be offered before the end of the season...

I'm pretty sure he was offered an extension a while back but hasn't signed it. I know there's no more going to be offered and that makes sense but to risk losing wildsmith by not offering him an extension is plain madness imo.

[Gee SCREAMER !!]

17 minutes ago, mwram1973 said:

I'm pretty sure he was offered an extension a while back but hasn't signed it. I know there's no more going to be offered and that makes sense but to risk losing wildsmith by not offering him an extension is plain madness imo.

I think we went down that road too much in the past with the now he's on a million a year I want it.  A top  end midfielder or striker possibly.  A goalie who played about 60 games in 8 years before his arrival.  We'll live without doubling a wage offer and move on.

[Magicman]

If we get promotion 

Wildsmith 

Rooney 

Nelson 

Cashin 

Wilson 

Ward 

Sibley 

Adams 

Thompson 

Smith 

NML 

Collins 

CBT 

[Chopper]

Given our finances, and the fact that we aren't going to be in the 'speculate to accumulate' phase, it'll be a bit moot over quality, most of who we have will have to step up, and improve. That said, I think there is much to be said for taking momentum into the next season, and there may be player, who struggled last time in the Championship getting released, but with the momentum if we get promotion that'll change them. Attacking options I feel may be our weakest area, 3 of our 4/5 in defense will be fine, even a bit of depth RB/RWB.

By the way, if, and a massive if we go up I'd hope we can come to an agreement with Cardiff re Adams. Listening to Adams on Radio Derby today, I think he's genuinely touched by how he has settled in here. With the euphoria of a promotion, alongside a connection with the club and the fans he may be willing to stay and personally I cant wait to contribute to a George Thorne level thread. We may be a good fit for him personally, let's face it we've seen it before.

[Ambitious]

There is a very stark and real difference between being able to forge a career in the Championship and being an impactful player in the Championship. A LOT of fairly unremarkable players have made careers in the Championship, so I actually don't have too many worries about a lot of our players' ability to hold their own at the next level. 

In terms of impactful players at the Championship, well that's a very different story. I would be confident in Mendez-Laing and Cashin. If Nelson was an import from overseas, who had never played in the Championship, then I would also say him. I do worry that he's been unremarkable in the Championship, largely, so would consider it unlikely he's going to carry the same impact at the next level. Adams, too, has found it tough by all accounts. He's in a similar boat to Nelson in the sense he's been very good for us at this level but has struggled to make the step up. I guess you could also put Nyambe in this category too, albeit he has previously done very well at Championship level with Blackburn. 

Blackett-Taylor is starting to show his ability and looks to have good speed, range and technical ability that should serve him well at the next level. He does seem to lack the power of a NML but he has potential to be impactful at the next level if he progresses. Wilson, Sibley are probably more along the lines of being able to play in the Championship, perhaps struggle to be as impactful. 

I do worry about Waghorn, Collins, Smith, Bradley and I'd probably add Elder to the list as players who I think would actually struggle to step up. All of them look to be on the down-swing of their career, in-terms of mobility, Collins has done well for us this season but I think a better class of defender really limits his impact. Waghorn started the season well, but looks laboured since his return from injury. Elder and Bradley just haven't looked right since we signed them, honestly, both have had moments but big question marks over them two - as well as Smith. 

If we do get promoted, the recruitment is going to have to be very strong. Central midfield and strikers, in particular, will need to be improved upon enormously. 

[Comrade 86]

16 hours ago, Chesterfield_Ram said:

Bit of a nerdy one from me here. Using the Pythagorean Winning Percentage formula, we should have finished this season with 36 wins, which can't happen now. This suggests that the team has underperformed this season.

If we are to go up this season, by applying the performance moderations from teams going up into the championship in their first season up, we should hypothetically win 20 games with the squad we have. 

Looking at recruitment from a purely statistical point of view, we would be better off recruiting pure starters. For example, a 20 goal a season striker, a 10/15 assist a season playmaker or an 8/10 a game defender or goalkeeper.

Interesting. Should we achieve promotion, will using the 'Pythagorean Winning Percentage formula' allow you to factor in the feasilibility of us meeting the cost of a 20 goal a season Championship level striker et al and if not, how will it determine whether we have underperformed again? 

Likewise, did the formula afford any weighting to the restrictions applied to Derby's activities this season in reaching the assessment that we have underperformed?

Lastly, are you, by any chance, related to ap04? 

[IlsonDerby]

On 07/04/2024 at 10:25, mwram1973 said:

Adams won't be signing, Warne has pretty much said that.

Wildsmith is not signing a new contract (at the moment)

Cashin will be sold 100% to make funds for incoming players.

My picks for champ would be

CBT, Nelson, Ward, Wilson, Sibley, Nyambe, Elder, Thommo, NML.

Picks for Prem....errrmmm. No one

If Adams isn’t signing then he must have one hell of a set of midfield transfer targets for this summer. 
 

Quite exciting to think about it that way… softens the blow.

[IlsonDerby]

8 hours ago, Ambitious said:

There is a very stark and real difference between being able to forge a career in the Championship and being an impactful player in the Championship. A LOT of fairly unremarkable players have made careers in the Championship, so I actually don't have too many worries about a lot of our players' ability to hold their own at the next level. 

In terms of impactful players at the Championship, well that's a very different story. I would be confident in Mendez-Laing and Cashin. If Nelson was an import from overseas, who had never played in the Championship, then I would also say him. I do worry that he's been unremarkable in the Championship, largely, so would consider it unlikely he's going to carry the same impact at the next level. Adams, too, has found it tough by all accounts. He's in a similar boat to Nelson in the sense he's been very good for us at this level but has struggled to make the step up. I guess you could also put Nyambe in this category too, albeit he has previously done very well at Championship level with Blackburn. 

Blackett-Taylor is starting to show his ability and looks to have good speed, range and technical ability that should serve him well at the next level. He does seem to lack the power of a NML but he has potential to be impactful at the next level if he progresses. Wilson, Sibley are probably more along the lines of being able to play in the Championship, perhaps struggle to be as impactful. 

I do worry about Waghorn, Collins, Smith, Bradley and I'd probably add Elder to the list as players who I think would actually struggle to step up. All of them look to be on the down-swing of their career, in-terms of mobility, Collins has done well for us this season but I think a better class of defender really limits his impact. Waghorn started the season well, but looks laboured since his return from injury. Elder and Bradley just haven't looked right since we signed them, honestly, both have had moments but big question marks over them two - as well as Smith. 

If we do get promoted, the recruitment is going to have to be very strong. Central midfield and strikers, in particular, will need to be improved upon enormously. 

I think if we could get him fit for a while that Elder could finally be the heir to Forsyth. Think that he looks very good on the ball and very steady when he actually pieced together a few appearances. 
He was always going to look shaky dipping in and out of the team due to injuries but he was in team of the year last time he was at this level. 
 

I don’t believe that young players who are the best in their position in league 1 wouldn’t be able to step up well. 
 

Agree with what you say about us having a lot of ‘decent championship pros’ already and needing to add real quality for those we bring in to make the difference. 

[Chesterfield_Ram]

6 hours ago, Comrade 86 said:

Interesting. Should we achieve promotion, will using the 'Pythagorean Winning Percentage formula' allow you to factor in the feasilibility of us meeting the cost of a 20 goal a season Championship level striker et al and if not, how will it determine whether we have underperformed again? 

Likewise, did the formula afford any weighting to the restrictions applied to Derby's activities this season in reaching the assessment that we have underperformed?

Lastly, are you, by any chance, related to ap04? 

To be honest, I worded my original post poorly. When I referred to us underperforming I meant it terms of the performances we have put in should have led to us gaining more points than we currently have. Simply put, our points total is less than what our performances deserve.

The formula simply takes into account what happens on the pitch and is well used in other sports to evaluate team performance.

As for meeting the cost of a 20 goal striker or a solid defender, I was simply meaning that we should focus on signing a gamechanger as opposed to fringe/bench players.

By adding 15 goals or taking away 10 goals from our projected total would put us in a play off place if teams pick up points at a similar rate to they have this season in the championship.

[Comrade 86]

38 minutes ago, Chesterfield_Ram said:

To be honest, I worded my original post poorly. When I referred to us underperforming I meant it terms of the performances we have put in should have led to us gaining more points than we currently have. Simply put, our points total is less than what our performances deserve.

The formula simply takes into account what happens on the pitch and is well used in other sports to evaluate team performance.

As for meeting the cost of a 20 goal striker or a solid defender, I was simply meaning that we should focus on signing a gamechanger as opposed to fringe/bench players.

By adding 15 goals or taking away 10 goals from our projected total would put us in a play off place if teams pick up points at a similar rate to they have this season in the championship.

Fairs Chesterfield. I actually do see a place for statistical analysis in sport, though I think I'm one of relatively few on here who do. I think the 'gamechanger' angle is quite clear and most would agree, but my point was really that what we should do versus what we could do might be vastly disparate. The cost of a 20 goal striker, a 10 to 15 assist guy and an 8/10 defender keeper is likely to be well beyond our means in the short to medium term unless DC can secure outside funding, so whilst we all know what we need, attaining it is a rather different matter and a 'nice to have' rather than a 'mandatory'.

[Chesterfield_Ram]

44 minutes ago, Comrade 86 said:

Fairs Chesterfield. I actually do see a place for statistical analysis in sport, though I think I'm one of relatively few on here who do. I think the 'gamechanger' angle is quite clear and most would agree, but my point was really that what we should do versus what we could do might be vastly disparate. The cost of a 20 goal striker, a 10 to 15 assist guy and an 8/10 defender keeper is likely to be well beyond our means in the short to medium term unless DC can secure outside funding, so whilst we all know what we need, attaining it is a rather different matter and a 'nice to have' rather than a 'mandatory'.

Yeah I understand about not having the budget that could bring in lots of top players.

But my point is that I think we should focus on 1 or 2 higher quality players, than 5 or 6 average players. Essentially, instead of paying 6 players 5 grand a week, pay 2 players 15 grand as an example.

I wonder whether this way could get us better players than it would if we looking for half a dozen or more new players.

[Comrade 86]

1 minute ago, Chesterfield_Ram said:

Yeah I understand about not having the budget that could bring in lots of top players.

But my point is that I think we should focus on 1 or 2 higher quality players, than 5 or 6 average players. Essentially, instead of paying 6 players 5 grand a week, pay 2 players 15 grand as an example.

I wonder whether this way could get us better players than it would if we looking for half a dozen or more new players.

I think it's more likely that we will take a longer term view and look at the most promising players from outside the Championship and bolster the side with loans, whilst looking to develop the likes of Allen, Robinson, Weston and Brown. DC is all about sustainability IMO and I don't see that changing dramatically anytime soon.

[Magicman]

21 hours ago, Magicman said:

If we get promotion 

Wildsmith 

Rooney 

Nelson 

Cashin 

Wilson 

Ward 

Sibley 

Adams 

Thompson 

Smith 

NML 

Collins 

CBT 

Plus Nyambe ....

[ap04]

On 08/04/2024 at 13:11, Chesterfield_Ram said:

Bit of a nerdy one from me here. Using the Pythagorean Winning Percentage formula, we should have finished this season with 36 wins, which can't happen now. This suggests that the team has underperformed this season.

The Pythagorean is not used for football analysis. The lesser reason, because football has 3 points for a win and also draws so it needs a different exponent (and will over-predict every team near the top). The main reason, that it in baseball for which it was conceived -or other high-scoring sports such as basketball- hundreds of runs/points are scored/conceded per season which closely reflects performance, in football goals are rare and do not equal performance. xG was the evolution of Bill James's baseball methods for football, you could have put these instead of goals in the formula or -even better- simply used xPts or net xG instead.

As for your conclusion that the team has "underperformed" this couldn't be further from the truth (and folk who have watched our games may attest to this empirically, we have been scoring without being too creative and winning even games on a regular basis). One xPts has us 7 points better off, I have us about 10.

[mwram1973]

11 hours ago, IlsonDerby said:

If Adams isn’t signing then he must have one hell of a set of midfield transfer targets for this summer. 
 

Quite exciting to think about it that way… softens the blow.

All he said was he was Cardiffs player and he thinks it won't happen. After the games he's had for us I would have thought they would want him back or want a stupid amount for him, which we now won't be able to afford.

[Chopper]

2 hours ago, mwram1973 said:

All he said was he was Cardiffs player and he thinks it won't happen. After the games he's had for us I would have thought they would want him back or want a stupid amount for him, which we now won't be able to afford.

Agree it could prove difficult. The only chance is with promotion, and the second we do that Cardiff are selling to a rival and you either make them pay over the odds or the player has walked. It'll be unlikely but I'd love to see it. The nieve part of me hopes that Warne is just being respectful to Cardiff and something is already in place, or a plan at least.

Up front we have "moneyballed" the loss of McGoldrick somewhat, spreading his goal contributions amongst other players, if we go up we need those goals that Collins has given us. I see four alternatives: Collins steps up,  moneyball those goals with increased contributions again from other players, invest in a new forward to step up, or my personal favourite 20 goals from a hitherto unlooked for source within the club. 

I remember a rather nondescript forward not doing much, hanging about the reserves. He had a productive loan spell with Torquay (although not amazing) came back, got a chance, 20 goals later we go up and he goes on to score v Arsenal, Leeds and ManUre first season up. Dean Sturridge, by the way. Perhaps we have a young fella on loan somewhere this season to offer that explosive difference? Stunning us that he can make the step up.

[jimtastic56]

On 06/04/2024 at 12:40, England Ram said:

Players who may make it in the Championship  (to varying degrees) 

Wildsmith 

Cashin 

Nelson 

Nyambe 

Ward 

Wilson 

Adams (not our player) 

Smith 

Sibley 

Tommo 

CBT 

Barks 

NML 

Brown 

Gayle 

Premier League is a different conversation depending on development etc but having seen some of the players plying their trade in the premier league at the moment then potentially - 

Cash 

Nyambe

Wilson

Adams 

Sibley 

Tommo 

CBT 

Brown 

 

 

I know everyone has a right to an opinion . But do you really think we have players with Premiership potential that can’t get in our League One team ? 

[England Ram]

On 10/04/2024 at 21:57, jimtastic56 said:

I know everyone has a right to an opinion . But do you really think we have players with Premiership potential that can’t get in our League One team ? 

Potentially……..yes.  Depending on development and playing style. 
Watching some of the individual players in the bottom 8 teams play I’d not put some of them individually that far ahead of some of ours. 
The biggest difference for some of these players is the actual make up of the team they play in and the style the manager uses that gets the best out of them. The sum being bigger than the parts as they say. So yes, potentially some of ours could do the same.