The Ukraine War

[Stive Pesley]

I've never really understood the logic of hiring a mercenary army if you want to appear strong as a nation.

Is it not a tacit admission from the off that you're not good enough to win this on your own without spending a fortune to bring in some ringers ?

It's all well and good until the mercenaries decide they don't like the odds any more and switch sides. Not that it would ever happen....oh 

[Grumpy Git]

13 minutes ago, Stive Pesley said:

I've never really understood the logic of hiring a mercenary army if you want to appear strong as a nation.

Is it not a tacit admission from the off that you're not good enough to win this on your own without spending a fortune to bring in some ringers ?

It's all well and good until the mercenaries decide they don't like the odds any more and switch sides. Not that it would ever happen....oh 

Sounds like a Beilik tactic. 😉

[Ram-Alf]

36 minutes ago, Stive Pesley said:

1. I've never really understood the logic of hiring a mercenary army if you want to appear strong as a nation.

2. Is it not a tacit admission from the off that you're not good enough to win this on your own without spending a fortune to bring in some ringers ?

It's all well and good until the mercenaries decide they don't like the odds any more and switch sides. Not that it would ever happen....oh 

1. The Wagner group have done Putins "Dirty Work", The Wagner group are in several African Countries also Madagascar, Stealing their minerals and the like, Under the flag of Russia it wouldn't look to good for Putin.

2. Putin wants the Wagner group to sign up to the Russian Army, They have until July 1st to do so...a mistake by Putin...imo, Prighozin took this as an act of aggression. 

3. Mercenaries and criminals who were released from prison have their convictions expunged if they joined, 1000s did and 1000s were killed in Bakhmut.

It's a shitty mess, Prighozin is already in contact with the GRU Russian special forces...is it a coop...🤷‍♀️...with Prighozin coming out and saying Russia illegally went into the Ukraine and saying NATO was at the head of this is pretty strong stuff and a direct criticism of Putin.

Prighozin

8 years in prison for armed robbery 1981-1990, Then became a hot dog seller in St Petersburg, Moved to open a high class restaurant, Then into the food warehouse business, Became a supplier to the Russian army, Went higher up in the Russian ladder and ended up supporting the invasion of Crimea 

   

Edited June 24, 2023 by The Last Post

[Grumpy Git]

14 minutes ago, The Last Post said:

Prighozin

8 years in prison for armed robbery 1981-1990, Then became a hot dog seller in St Petersburg, Moved to open a high class restaurant, Then into the food warehouse business, Became a supplier to the Russian army, Went higher up in the Russian ladder and ended up supporting the invasion of Crimea 

   

Only gig missing from his CV is Derby County chairman.

[richinspain]

8 minutes ago, Grumpy Git said:

Only gig missing from his CV is Derby County chairman.

He's still be behind Maxwell and Morris in the unpopularity stakes!

[Ramarena]

Anyone heard Swan Lake yet?

So far we know:

- Wagner are making significant progress, they are confirmed as having reached Voronezh and taken the military installations there. Voronezh is half way to Moscow.

- reports from Telegram (can’t verify their reliability) puts Wagner as far as Tula which is 2 hours from Moscow

- Wagner took Rostov in the night with a bit of initial resistance, local authorities announced an emergency stay indoors warning. Most of the Russian national guard gave Wagner a free pass. Wagner took Rostov’s military installations, which are huge supply hubs for the war in Ukraine.

- when Wagner crossed the border in to Russia 180 Russian army service men surrendered to them.

- the Russian ministry of defence has given the official order to the army to engage Wagner directly on Russian soil.

- Russian national guard and FSB are rumoured to be rushing in any units that will answer the call and attempting to form a large defensive line 50kms south of Moscow

- a number of private jets have been reported as leaving Moscow on flight radar. Initial reports say former president Medvedev is one of the most significant departures

- Putin’s speech earlier has seemingly left no doubt that this is the Kremlin vs Wagner/Prigozhin. 

- Putin made contact with the CSTO countries. The CSTO is the Russian version of NATO.

- Runours circulating that Lukashenko has fled to Turkey 

There’s plenty more but that is enough for now.

[Ramarena]

1 minute ago, Ramarena said:

Anyone heard Swan Lake yet?

So far we know:

- Wagner are making significant progress, they are confirmed as having reached Voronezh and taken the military installations there. Voronezh is half way to Moscow.

- reports from Telegram (can’t verify their reliability) puts Wagner as far as Tula which is 2 hours from Moscow

- Wagner took Rostov in the night with a bit of initial resistance, local authorities announced an emergency stay indoors warning. Most of the Russian national guard gave Wagner a free pass. Wagner took Rostov’s military installations, which are huge supply hubs for the war in Ukraine.

- when Wagner crossed the border in to Russia 180 Russian army service men surrendered to them.

- the Russian ministry of defence has given the official order to the army to engage Wagner directly on Russian soil.

- Russian national guard and FSB are rumoured to be rushing in any units that will answer the call and attempting to form a large defensive line 50kms south of Moscow

- a number of private jets have been reported as leaving Moscow on flight radar. Initial reports say former president Medvedev is one of the most significant departures

- Putin’s speech earlier has seemingly left no doubt that this is the Kremlin vs Wagner/Prigozhin. 

- Putin made contact with the CSTO countries. The CSTO is the Russian version of NATO.

- Runours circulating that Lukashenko has fled to Turkey 

There’s plenty more but that is enough for now.

Oh and Ukraine is making significant progress in Bakhmut now Wagner have departed.

[Ramarena]

2 hours ago, Stive Pesley said:

I've never really understood the logic of hiring a mercenary army if you want to appear strong as a nation.

Is it not a tacit admission from the off that you're not good enough to win this on your own without spending a fortune to bring in some ringers ?

It's all well and good until the mercenaries decide they don't like the odds any more and switch sides. Not that it would ever happen....oh 

True, but Putin thinks he’s invincible and can control any problem.

The real reason he employed Wagner is to do the absolutely hideous stuff/war crimes that the Russian army couldn’t be seen to do on the international stage in Syria, Ukraine, Sudan, etc

They did Putin’s dirty work.

[Ramarena]

5 hours ago, ketteringram said:

For Ukraine, and NATO, are the current events a good or a bad thing?

As Leeds Ram said initially it will be positive for Ukraine as it will cause confusion in the Russian Army and weaken them, some elements may even desert.

However mid to long term, this will only be bad. Remember Putin allowed Wagner fill its ranks with a wide range of criminals from Russian prisons, these guys are now launching a coup. Wagner also has significant Nazi elements (quite the irony given the hand wringing on here regarding “Azov Nazi’s”)

Prigozhin has always been pro war against Ukraine, he just thinks it’s been completely mis-managed.

He’s in charge of a group that Putin used to commit war crimes and other atrocities in conflicts. Imagine what he will do if he is running the Russian army?

I can only see bad things if he manages to overthrow Putin. That’s not to say that Putin’s reign isn’t absolutely terrible.

Whilst Putin’s potential downfall is well deserved, what could replace him is absolutely disturbing!

[Ramarena]

3 hours ago, sage said:

I wonder how Ukraine will play this in terms of their offensive. 

They will have to go in and make as much progress as fast as they can in the confusion, it sounds like they already are in Bakhmut.

If Prigozhin succeeds and takes control all bets are off. He’s pro war against Ukraine and is a loose canon. So Ukraine will need to get as much back as they can now and see where the cards fall afterwards.

[Chester40]

8 minutes ago, Ramarena said:

They will have to go in and make as much progress as fast as they can in the confusion, it sounds like they already are in Bakhmut.

If Prigozhin succeeds and takes control all bets are off. He’s pro war against Ukraine and is a loose canon. So Ukraine will need to get as much back as they can now and see where the cards fall afterwards.

Would be interesting how the West would react. If Prigozhin did force some kind of coup his immediate desire would probably be to make peace short term so he can get a grip internally.  The West could leverage that to get a better deal.

If not the West surely wouldn't recognise them and start to be more overt in supporting Ukraine and use it as an excuse to send planes and longe range missiles. 

 

[Ram-Alf]

5 minutes ago, Ramarena said:

As Leeds Ram said initially it will be positive for Ukraine as it will cause confusion in the Russian Army and weaken them, some elements may even desert.

However mid to long term, this will only be bad. Remember Putin allowed Wagner fill its ranks with a wide range of criminals from Russian prisons, these guys are now launching a coup. Wagner also has significant Nazi elements (quite the irony given the hand wringing on here regarding “Azov Nazi’s”)

Prigozhin has always been pro war against Ukraine, he just thinks it’s been completely mis-managed.

He’s in charge of a group that Putin used to commit war crimes and other atrocities in conflicts. Imagine what he will do if he is running the Russian army?

I can only see bad things if he manages to overthrow Putin. That’s not to say that Putin’s reign isn’t absolutely terrible.

Whilst Putin’s potential downfall is well deserved, what could replace him is absolutely disturbing!

If and it's still a bigish if...Putin bails, Who's going to welcome him?, The other CSTO members of Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan will be very wary of taking him in, If Lukashenko has called in a removal firm then Belarus are ooot, Kazakhstan will be ostracized and their sports/and sports people will be banned from world sports, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are fighting over some land, That leaves Armenia...Turkey will not be happy with Putin being next door, China may well take him and that will leave Prigozhin with an even bigger enemy.

Putin had better get a good agent as this is one hell of a clusterphuck 👎

[Ramarena]

Oh this isn’t good. (If true)

Reports from Russian war bloggers on Telegram are claiming that Wagner are emptying the prisons in Rostov of anyone who agree to join them and fight, they plan to do the same in the cities they’ve “taken” further north.

[ketteringram]

Seems like there's actually no good outcomes then 🤔

[sage]

15 minutes ago, Ramarena said:

They will have to go in and make as much progress as fast as they can in the confusion, it sounds like they already are in Bakhmut.

If Prigozhin succeeds and takes control all bets are off. He’s pro war against Ukraine and is a loose canon. So Ukraine will need to get as much back as they can now and see where the cards fall afterwards.

I don't think for a minute he will take control. At best he is a stalking horse, that highlights Putin's increasing weakness.

 

[Ramarena]

3 minutes ago, Chester40 said:

Would be interesting how the West would react. If Prigozhin did force some kind of coup his immediate desire would probably be to make peace short term so he can get a grip internally.  The West could leverage that to get a better deal.

If not the West surely wouldn't recognise them and start to be more overt in supporting Ukraine and use it as an excuse to send planes and longe range missiles. 

 

It’s hard to know how this scenario would play out.
 

I don’t think the West will be receptive, Russia will be replacing one wretched pro war leader, with arguably a more vicious and experienced (in terms of war and conflict) pro war leader.

The big concern is that Prigozhin is leader of a mercenary group that are pro war with Ukraine, have committed war crimes in conflicts, have a large population of criminals and large Nazi elements.

What would he do as leader of the worlds supposed second largest army?

 

[Ramarena]

3 minutes ago, sage said:

I don't think for a minute he will take control. At best he is a stalking horse, that highlights Putin's increasing weakness.

 

He may not, but he’s seemingly been planning/trying to engineer this scenario and thinks now is his best chance.

I suppose the question is, who’s going to stop him and does he have enough sway with people who could install him as leader?

[sage]

3 minutes ago, Ramarena said:

He may not, but he’s seemingly been planning/trying to engineer this scenario and thinks now is his best chance.

I suppose the question is, who’s going to stop him and does he have enough sway with people who could install him as leader?

Putin will stop him, but will have to take troops from Ukraine to do it. 

[Ram-Alf]

6 minutes ago, sage said:

I don't think for a minute he will take control. At best he is a stalking horse, that highlights Putin's increasing weakness.

 

This

Prigozhin has already spoken to the GRU reported on Sky news, So this has been in the pipeline for a few days maybe even weeks, The Oligarchs were crapping themselves as some fell out of very high hotel/hospital windows and thought who's next.

The International political phonelines will be hotter than the Bat phone when the Joker comes to town.

 

[Ram-Alf]

2 minutes ago, sage said:

Putin will stop him, but will have to take troops from Ukraine to do it. 

With Ukraine raining blows on the Russian army that's left.