Rammy03 Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 2 hours ago, The Scarlet Pimpernel said: Shinnie is great when we are on the back foot not so much when trying to get on the front foot. He has put in great effort but I would replace him with Bielik. He's not a holding midfielder, he looks so uncomfortable trying to play that role Cocu asks him to do. His strength isn't passing, it's driving forward with the ball at his feet. This is why he's played at left back before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IlsonDerby Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 Grant Christie Keogh Buxton Foz Eustace Bryson Hughes Russell Martin Ward Marshall Byrne Davies Clarke Buchanan Bielik Knight Sibley/Bird Jozwiak CKR Lawrence I don’t believe the quality of player has significantly dropped off between the team which tore the league apart and the team we could put out with players at our disposal. If anything I’d say this back 5 including Marshall should be defensively stronger... (should is doing a lot of work here) There are improvements to make but from what we’ve seen so far CKR can link play up. Jozwiak is tricky and can make things happen. Knight can play the Bryson role. Sibley can add the quality (not as much) that Hughes did. MTW can come in against teams we feel we’ll have a lot of the ball against and need centre backs both comfortable with the ball. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ghost of Clough Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 The thing is, we're getting shots on goal - we're midtable in that regard. However, when you look at the type of shots, they're typically from range. We have, by far, the smallest percentage of shots from close range and only Coventry have a smaller percentage of shots in the area overall. But, if you look at xG, we're midtable (11th) with 1.15 expected goals per game. Only Norwich are under achieving in front of goal as much as us. The numbers here suggest if we carry on creating the chances we are, we'll move up the table. Factor in xG against (where we're also underperforming), and it's still enough for us to move out of the bottom 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
falconram Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 6 hours ago, Rammy03 said: Wilson didn't come on until the second half when we were already 4-0 down. Waghorn and Lawrence didn't even play. My error Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ramsbottom Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 1 hour ago, Ghost of Clough said: The thing is, we're getting shots on goal - we're midtable in that regard. However, when you look at the type of shots, they're typically from range. We have, by far, the smallest percentage of shots from close range and only Coventry have a smaller percentage of shots in the area overall. But, if you look at xG, we're midtable (11th) with 1.15 expected goals per game. Only Norwich are under achieving in front of goal as much as us. The numbers here suggest if we carry on creating the chances we are, we'll move up the table. Factor in xG against (where we're also underperforming), and it's still enough for us to move out of the bottom 3. This points to one of the issues on why we don’t score, we’re not getting behind teams enough, so we have to rely on worldies. Mostly that’s due to not passing quickly enough, and players not prepared to have a go at their marker. The way we play is to shift the ball around until there’s an opportunity to have an overload against an opposing player, to make them break their lines and leave gaps. That’s why everyone was crying out for proper wingers who knew how to take players on. But also we’ve lost the only player who could consistently hold the ball up, bring other players in, and do the dirty work a proper No 9 does. Surely we’d all have been happier to have Martin get his 2 year deal, than have brought in Ibe, who must be on considerable wages. The former issue is down to Cocu’s style and his failure to implement it successfully. The latter is down to Mel’s historic overspend, leaving us with naff all wiggle room with contracts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dingleram Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 We don't play incisive passes at all. Move Bielik into midfield. He passes forwards and into the gaps between their defense and midfield and he does it quickly. Then CKR can hold and lay off, or Lawrence, Jozwiak etc can collect and run at the defence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jubbs Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 14 hours ago, plymouthram said: Why do we need a left footer. We already have Forsyth, Buchanan, Clarke, Shinnie, Bird, Sibley, Waghorn, Whittaker and Kelle Roos all left footers Roos is right footed. Also, just an observation, Bird was the 4th most 2 footed player in the championship last season., with 70% of his passes on his left foot, 30% with his right. Only players who were more 2 footed were Arter (50/50), Stewart and Nagy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jubbs Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 1 hour ago, Ghost of Clough said: But, if you look at xG, we're midtable (11th) with 1.15 expected goals per game. Only Norwich are under achieving in front of goal as much as us. The numbers here suggest if we carry on creating the chances we are, we'll move up the table. Factor in xG against (where we're also underperforming), and it's still enough for us to move out of the bottom 3. Where have you got this data from? I feel like it's from much earlier in the season. According to Infogol, we're bottom on xG by a long way, with 7.9 xG, next is Luton on 10.7 xG. We're 19th for xGA too. We're doing terribly in our underlying stats this season. We have done for a while actually, under Rowett we were bailed out by Vydra's elite finishing, under Lampard we were bailed out by Wilson's long shots and Cocu first season we were average in xG and 4th bottom for xGA. It's about time we regressed, if you go by stats/overperforming issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RoyMac5 Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 30 minutes ago, Jubbs said: Where have you got this data from? I feel like it's from much earlier in the season. According to Infogol, we're bottom on xG by a long way, with 7.9 xG, next is Luton on 10.7 xG. We're 19th for xGA too. We're doing terribly in our underlying stats this season. We have done for a while actually, under Rowett we were bailed out by Vydra's elite finishing, under Lampard we were bailed out by Wilson's long shots and Cocu first season we were average in xG and 4th bottom for xGA. It's about time we regressed, if you go by stats/overperforming issues. I can't tell is green good or bad?! ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jubbs Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 1 minute ago, RoyMac5 said: I can't tell is green good or bad?! Basically this model predicts we should, based on xG fairness mainly, but there's so many factors going into it, that we should be currently 23rd. Then, the FCST is our forecasted position based on xG, that we'll finish 20th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RoyMac5 Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 1 minute ago, Jubbs said: Basically this model predicts we should, based on xG fairness mainly, but there's so many factors going into it, that we should be currently 23rd. Then, the FCST is our forecasted position based on xG, that we'll finish 20th. I've never been a fan on over-reliance on stats modelling. OOI how who those stats change if we changed manager? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jubbs Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 6 minutes ago, RoyMac5 said: I've never been a fan on over-reliance on stats modelling. OOI how who those stats change if we changed manager? It's very useful to have and normally predicts downfalls or improvements. This season for example, Reading we're massively overperforming, basically finishing most chances they had, most stats models predicted a drop off as their shot conversion rate was very high and now look how they're doing. This model says they should be 17th based on underlying stats. On the other end of the spectrum, Stoke last season, although performing poorly, underlying stats were good. Now they're doing a lot better and are around where they 2should've" been last season. I'd like to get a manager who has good underlying stats, because it normally means we will eventually regress towards where we should be. Lee Johnson for example, massively overperformed based on underlying stats and would probably be quite a poor manager. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RoyMac5 Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 13 minutes ago, Jubbs said: It's very useful to have and normally predicts downfalls or improvements... I'd like to get a manager who has good underlying stats, because it normally means we will eventually regress towards where we should be. Lee Johnson for example, massively overperformed based on underlying stats and would probably be quite a poor manager. So if we get in a good manager our stats will be better?! FFS it's not rocket science this is the sort of thing that makes you think the Emperor has clothes on. ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jubbs Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 8 minutes ago, RoyMac5 said: So if we get in a good manager our stats will be better?! FFS it's not rocket science this is the sort of thing that makes you think the Emperor has clothes on. I mean there's managers who have poor underlying stats and there's managers who have good underlying stats. But say we appoint someone like Johnson, who has below average xG performance, then it won't bode well. He might give us an initial boost but I personally don't see him improving us this much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Day Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 2 hours ago, Jubbs said: But say we appoint someone like Johnson, who has below average xG performance, then it won't bode well. He might give us an initial boost but I personally don't see him improving us this much. I'm avoiding all next manager talk, but just want to pull this out. Some managers just work well at certain clubs with the squad/staff at the time, look at McClaren in 13/14 where it just clicked. xG is a nonsense stat as it is, but even worse when using it to predict how a manager may get on at another club in a completely different situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sage Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 If you want our wide attackers to score more you play left footers on the right and vice versa. If you want your wide attackers to cross the ball and create chances for a CF you play left footers on the left and right on the right. it is as simple as that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jubbs Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 52 minutes ago, David said: xG is a nonsense stat as it is, but even worse when using it to predict how a manager may get on at another club in a completely different situation. Personally don't think xG is a nonsense stat at all tbh. Single game xG sure, but over the course of a season or more it's incredibly useful. Agree that it's not great when transferring managers to different teams, but it's still useful information to have. Regarding McClaren 13/14 season, I can almost guarantee we were up there near the very top on xG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Day Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 5 minutes ago, Jubbs said: Personally don't think xG is a nonsense stat at all tbh. Single game xG sure, but over the course of a season or more it's incredibly useful. Agree that it's not great when transferring managers to different teams, but it's still useful information to have. Regarding McClaren 13/14 season, I can almost guarantee we were up there near the very top on xG. The best stat over the course of a season is aG, actual goals, those that score more tend to win more and further up the table. ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkoRam Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 5 minutes ago, David said: The best stat over the course of a season is aG, actual goals, those that score more tend to win more and further up the table. ? Hows our aG looking at the moment?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Day Posted November 9, 2020 Share Posted November 9, 2020 2 minutes ago, WilkoRam said: Hows our aG looking at the moment?? Don't look at the table until after Christmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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