Coronavirus

[B4ev6is]

I think some of this to scare people and in a way so govermemt can control us I think there letting press do there dirty work for them.

[Norman]

8 minutes ago, jimmyp said:

Yes the average person is quite old, doesn’t mean lots of people who are younger than the average life expectancy point aren’t being wiped out also.

Just a short snippet from one of many pieces of research so you don’t have to go trawling through the data.

”

Nonetheless, the widespread misconception remained that it mainly killed old people, and that those old people would soon have died anyway. But this last claim is clearly false. A recent study (using data from Italy) found that, after adjusting for long-term health conditions, women who die of Covid-19 lose on average 13 years of life; men lose 11. So the typical Covid victim loses not ‘just’ a few months or a couple of years, but twelve years of life. Over a decade that could, and should have been spent watching grandchildren – and children – growing up. Instead, they are dead, and all the life they would have had has been lost.”

 

I thought the average age in this country was 82 point something that had died from Covid. No way the average person therefore has another 12 years life expectancy. Especially as most of the dead had underlying medical conditions too. 

Where's the stats for that? 

Edit: it's 82.4, which is higher than the UK average life expectancy. 

[jimmyp]

3 minutes ago, Norman said:

I thought the average age in this country was 82 point something that had died from Covid. No way the average person therefore has another 12 years life expectancy. Especially as most of the dead had underlying medical conditions too. 

Where's the stats for that? 

Not everyone that dies is of the average age of death! 

Some are older some are younger. The total YLL is 12 years. 

I also pointed out two very reliable sources that you could obtain this data from. The number didn’t come from a newspaper or social media. 

[Norman]

5 minutes ago, jimmyp said:

Not everyone that dies is of the average age of death! 

Some are older some are younger. The total YLL is 12 years. 

I also pointed out two very reliable sources that you could obtain this data from. The number didn’t come from a newspaper or social media. 

I googled your quote, which led me to the website you pulled it from, which led me to the study, which led me to the explanation of how they got the number. 

And finally to the comments on the study.

[Uptherams]

Another day, another load of nonesense. 

[ariotofmyown]

1 hour ago, TexasRam said:

Oh that’s a crass comment, hope it gets removed. 

Not sure you know the meaning of the word crass. If one of my relatives had died of Covid, I would really really want to know why our response to Covid has been so dire compared to Aus.

[jimmyp]

9 minutes ago, Norman said:

I googled your quote, which led me to the website you pulled it from, which led me to the study, which led me to the explanation of how they got the number. 

And finally to the comments on the study.

 

9 minutes ago, Norman said:

I googled your quote, which led me to the website you pulled it from, which led me to the study, which led me to the explanation of how they got the number. 

And finally to the comments on the study.

So from that one particular article I used from the BMJ what was the conclusion and the yll based upon the discussed comments?

Is the ONS research based upon the WHO figures or is it based upon it’s own data from UK compiled data. I presume you read more than one set of research before coming to your conclusion. 

[maxjam]

26 minutes ago, jimmyp said:

Nonetheless, the widespread misconception remained that it mainly killed old people, and that those old people would soon have died anyway. But this last claim is clearly false. A recent study (using data from Italy) found that, after adjusting for long-term health conditions, women who die of Covid-19 lose on average 13 years of life; men lose 11. So the typical Covid victim loses not ‘just’ a few months or a couple of years, but twelve years of life. Over a decade that could, and should have been spent watching grandchildren – and children – growing up. Instead, they are dead, and all the life they would have had has been lost.”

 

So the figures were adjusted to show a certain result?

I think we should adjust by religion to see how many years of life are lost to covid.  Turns out atheists suffer least covid deaths.  Hmm seems I've inadvertently disproved God too.

https://www.news-medical.net/news/20201007/Religion-and-risk-of-COVID-19-in-UK.aspx

You can manipulate stats to say virtually whatever you need them to.

[Eddie]

41 minutes ago, maxjam said:

Not gonna trawl through ONS/WHO data but I've seen it reported numerous times that the average age of covid deaths is in the 80s;

According to this article;

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/average-age-of-coronavirus-fatalities-is-82-pcwqrzdzz

The average age of those who have died from coronavirus in England and Wales since the start of the pandemic is 82.4 years old.

Using data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), researchers at the University of Oxford found that the median age of a Covid-19 fatality was slightly higher than the median age of those who died of other causes over the same period, which was 81.5.

I'm not denying that I'd want to cling to every extra day of life but I think covid taking an extra 12-14 years of life is a bit like arguing there is a pay gap etc - ie selective use of stats.

Also from the article;

The researchers also found that about six in every 1,000 infections now result in deaths, down from 30 in every 1000 in June - which regardless of petty arguments that appear to be going on in the forum will hopefully be see as good news by us all ?

My daughter is a marathon runner, and went down with it in March.

She managed to run the London Marathon last week, but it took her 9 hours (3 hours more than last year). She is still suffering, 6 months later. It is a debilitating disease which doesn't just cull the elderly and infirm.

[Gone]

14 minutes ago, ariotofmyown said:

Not sure you know the meaning of the word crass. If one of my relatives had died of Covid, I would really really want to know why our response to Covid has been so dire compared to Aus.

Distasteful, trying to score points using a body count. If I lost someone close the last thing I would think of is how another country had performed during the crisis 

[maxjam]

7 minutes ago, Eddie said:

My daughter is a marathon runner, and went down with it in March.

She managed to run the London Marathon last week, but it took her 9 hours (3 hours more than last year). She is still suffering, 6 months later. It is a debilitating disease which doesn't just cull the elderly and infirm.

Its sad if you or someone you know suffers a bad or fatal reaction to covid, but young people that do suffer with it are in a tiny, tiny minority - thats not zero and given a population of nearly 70m it will be a lot of people.

If you're under 40 covid has a 0.06 fatality rate;

https://www.advisory.com/daily-briefing/2020/07/13/covid-risk

[Spanish]

58 minutes ago, jimmyp said:

Yes the average person is quite old, doesn’t mean lots of people who are younger than the average life expectancy point aren’t being wiped out also.

Just a short snippet from one of many pieces of research so you don’t have to go trawling through the data.

”

Nonetheless, the widespread misconception remained that it mainly killed old people, and that those old people would soon have died anyway. But this last claim is clearly false. A recent study (using data from Italy) found that, after adjusting for long-term health conditions, women who die of Covid-19 lose on average 13 years of life; men lose 11. So the typical Covid victim loses not ‘just’ a few months or a couple of years, but twelve years of life. Over a decade that could, and should have been spent watching grandchildren – and children – growing up. Instead, they are dead, and all the life they would have had has been lost.”

 

Good grief you are pushing me into a Covid Denier Camp and I never thought I ovule ever say that!  
 

This thing kills the old and the vulnerable.  The vulnerable are not likely to reach average life expectancy so the comparison is worthless.  You weaken your overall argument with bs like this.  Covid kills many and it is responsible for helping other illnesses to kill earlier than they should do.  Trying to claim it is responsible for robbing 14 or so years from everybody who dies with it, as an average, beggars belief.  I have lost 2 friends through this both earlier than average mostly down to the fact they were quite ill, they were never ever likely to reach standard life expectancy.

[Norman]

36 minutes ago, jimmyp said:

 

So from that one particular article I used from the BMJ what was the conclusion and the yll based upon the discussed comments?

Is the ONS research based upon the WHO figures or is it based upon it’s own data from UK compiled data. I presume you read more than one set of research before coming to your conclusion. 

The conclusion is that the data was not worthy of being used for multiple reasons, which is why you probably didn't link it. 

I mean, not taking into account the high death rate in care homes, and therefore the pre-existing, underlying health implications of a large part of the data is where i started to draw my conclusions to be honest. 

[Tyler Durden]

So as predicted from Wednesday I am unable to go indoors in a pub with a person from another household but infact can interact at work with dozens of transient agency workers who change daily that I've never met before in my entire life. Still can't get my head around that. 

[maxjam]

20 minutes ago, Tyler Durden said:

So as predicted from Wednesday I am unable to go indoors in a pub with a person from another household but infact can interact at work with dozens of transient agency workers who change daily that I've never met before in my entire life. Still can't get my head around that. 

We really need some new emoji's for things like this, didn't know what to give you!

[Tyler Durden]

1 minute ago, maxjam said:

We really need some new emoji's for things like this, didn't know what to give you!

Like a ?

[jimmyp]

27 minutes ago, Spanish said:

Good grief you are pushing me into a Covid Denier Camp and I never thought I ovule ever say that!  
 

This thing kills the old and the vulnerable.  The vulnerable are not likely to reach average life expectancy so the comparison is worthless.  You weaken your overall argument with bs like this.  Covid kills many and it is responsible for helping other illnesses to kill earlier than they should do.  Trying to claim it is responsible for robbing 14 or so years from everybody who dies with it, as an average, beggars belief.  I have lost 2 friends through this both earlier than average mostly down to the fact they were quite ill, they were never ever likely to reach standard life expectancy.

Tell me what is the YLL due to Covid? 

 

[jimmyp]

27 minutes ago, Norman said:

The conclusion is that the data was not worthy of being used for multiple reasons, which is why you probably didn't link it. 

I mean, not taking into account the high death rate in care homes, and therefore the pre-existing, underlying health implications of a large part of the data is where i started to draw my conclusions to be honest. 

What is the YLL due to Covid? Dismiss the figure I quoted based on your limited research fine, you drew your conclusions perhaps before even reading the revised research allowing for all of the points you have raised to be taken into consideration. 

Do you think it is impossible to extract a reliable YLL from all the data we have. Would you even believe it?

[Spanish]

3 minutes ago, jimmyp said:

Tell me what is the YLL due to Covid? 

 

I am talking about a common sense approach rather than a stat that is manipulated to create a fear that is not a true threat.  Until someone is able to prove realistically how many years life expectancy A Covid victim lost then the calculation against a standard calculation is spurious.  I don’t believe for a second that the average Covid victim had 14 years left to live if they had not had the virus.

[Chester40]

If I were a NHS manager /coordinator and I were asked for my opinion on where we are headed and my needs and hopes/fears for the future... 

Am I really going to say 'Nah, we'll be fine'.? 

The pressure of underestimating or in retrospect coming across as complacent or over confident must be overwhelming. Ignoring the fact I would be trying to secure every bit of funding possible...

.. if the government are listening to the science can they possibly be even-handed or are they going to be incredibly falling on the side of being negative?