Coronavirus

[Day]

2 hours ago, maxjam said:

Anyone told @David about the latest gadget?  Straps are an optional extra ? 

Already pre ordered one 

[Stive Pesley]

13 minutes ago, David said:

Already pre ordered one 

Only to find that it's incompatible with normal faces, and you also have to order a proprietary face if you want to use it

[Day]

2 minutes ago, SchtivePesley said:

Only to find that it's incompatible with normal faces, and you also have to order a proprietary face if you want to use it

But it’s the best.

[Angry Ram]

42 minutes ago, David said:

But it’s the best.

What colour did you go for? I went white, did want to show off too much.

[ramit]

Just spoke to a friend who has a house in our street in Cabo Roig.  Costa Blanca to go into total lock-down at midnight.  They returned empty handed from the supermarket, the shelves were empty, so they headed to the mall and were shopping food when i called him.  Said it was getting rather hairy, some shoving going on in the store.

15 days to start with and then check the status.  Seems unlikely we will be going there on the 5th as planned some time ago.

https://www.euroweeklynews.com/2020/03/13/costa-blanca-will-go-into-lockdown-at-midnight-to-combat-the-spread-of-coronavirus/#.XmvECs3gqpo

[Carl Sagan]

2 hours ago, jono said:

I’d also add that supposed death rates need considerable data crunching before you can arrive at an accurate figure ... consider how many of those who have died, might well have died from another cause due to their frailty.
How many of those tested are the really ill ones - most of them I reckon - so the death rate is inflated.

 How many have the virus, are surviving but haven’t been tested and aren’t in any equation 

 

 

 

1 hour ago, A Ram for All Seasons said:

As far as I understand it, the rate of infection will increase exponentially once the virus really gets going and starts moving through the population. Does that mean that we're still in the fairly flat part of the curve at the beginning before the big spike comes?

Counting the number of tests performed also depends on the capacity of the laboratories doing the testing, and they will come under increasing stress as more people are affected.

Some good points. For @jono, you're right about delving down into the data, rather than me write a post I would say we have a unit called Our World In Data that is magnificent in its objectivity (and has been correcting some of the World Health Organization data) and they explain all of this really, really clearly: https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus

For @A Ram for All SeasonsI'd point out that exponential growth can happen at any time. It just means that the time to double the numbers remains constant, so it applies to small numbers just as much as big numbers. That means it doesn't look too bad in the first few doubles. But, say, you have 500 cases. It will only take 11 more doubles for that to be a million cases. If you're doubling every 2 days, then you'll get there in 3 weeks. If it's every 4 days you'll still get there in 6 weeks. That's why we need to "flatten the curve" and move away from exponential growth, so we have the rate of increase start to tail off. At the moment we need more data to know if we're succeeding or not. I would say we'll know in a week or so and if what we're doing isn't working then, we'll have to take more drastic action. But there are some indications that between the UK government advice and the UK population access we are doing better than elsewhere in Europe.

In this graph from https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12316302 the thin line to the right of the "3 days" marker is the UK. There is some doubt about the Japanese figures because it's not clear they're testing enough. Can the UK line start skewing much more to the right?

 

[A Ram for All Seasons]

12 minutes ago, Carl Sagan said:

But there are some indications that between the UK government advice and the UK population access we are doing better than elsewhere in Europe.

It's the same virus though, no matter where it lives. Lets hope all the curves start flattening off.

[Alph]

What's with the stockpiling for a nuclear apocalypse?

Just nipped in Sainsburys and seen the shelves. Long life milk, toilet roll and hand sanitizer eh?

Weirdos. I hope I get the poo virus because i can't wipe my arse and wash my hands and then when everyone comes out of hiding I'll touch everything.

[mozza]

[A Ram for All Seasons]

11 minutes ago, mozza said:

Even the Germans find that joke funny, but 500 Germans poo themselves when somebody sneezes. Britons are made of sterner stuff.

[RoyMac5]

1 hour ago, ramit said:

Just spoke to a friend who has a house in our street in Cabo Roig.  Costa Blanca to go into total lock-down at midnight.  They returned empty handed from the supermarket, the shelves were empty, so they headed to the mall and were shopping food when i called him.  Said it was getting rather hairy, some shoving going on in the store.

15 days to start with and then check the status...

Pretty grim if you can't stock up for whatever reason. 

[jono]

The big point is that we all sort of need to catch it ( well 60% of us anyway )  but very slowly slowly .. so that the health service and systems that make a country work can keep working and thus protect the vulnerable 

[Day]

Blimey. Think I’d rather jump in the shower after.

[TigerTedd]

Top tip. If you’re self employed like me and think your earnings are going to take a hit, you can get a mortgage break for 2-3 months. 

ive just essentially saved myself £1200 in the short term by doing that, so that’s a few less days work I need to find.

normally I wouldn’t be able to qualify, Because I still have more than 75% on my mortgage to pay, but because of corona virus they’re being more flexible. 

[A Ram for All Seasons]

At least my new bathroom has one of them hand-held nozzles that you can use to squirt your bum with.

[GboroRam]

3 minutes ago, A Ram for All Seasons said:

At least my new bathroom has one of them hand-held nozzles that you can use to squirt your bum with.

That's the shower hose you filthy animal! 

[ramit]

1 hour ago, RoyMac5 said:

Pretty grim if you can't stock up for whatever reason. 

Ah, i see, yes my post could have been more accurate, of course grocery stores will be kept open and pharmacies and such but with restrictions as i understand.

Bought enough food, so they are okay.  It was the panic buying that caused the lack of products.  Spanish government now says closures will be for 30 days at least.

In other news, my little family has an appointment with a sample swab on the 21st of March.  A local genetic research company has offered testing 400-500 people per day on top of the 100 or so the government is testing.  Their webpage crashed repeatedly apparently, heh.

[RoyMac5]

21 minutes ago, ramit said:

Ah, i see, yes my post could have been more accurate, of course grocery stores will be kept open and pharmacies and such but with restrictions as i understand.

Can't see the point then? But I suppose maybe it will spread out the rate of infection.

[ramit]

20 minutes ago, RoyMac5 said:

Can't see the point then? But I suppose maybe it will spread out the rate of infection.

That's the general idea in many countries, try to draw it out so that medical facilities don't get overloaded.

All schools other than primary schools have been closed here locally, public gatherings of 100 or more forbidden and so on and so on.

[RoyMac5]

4 minutes ago, ramit said:

That's the general idea in many countries, try to draw it out so that medical facilities don't get overloaded.

All schools have been closed here locally, public gatherings of 100 or more forbidden and so on and so on.

So everyone just 'sits around' for 30 days?