Coronavirus

[Gritstone Ram]

I was watching Andrew Marr this morning and he had a few interesting people on. There was a German chap who reckoned Germany were lucky not to have had more deaths. I don’t know whether he was playing it down a bit then there was a Labour MP who was saying we should have done more testing. When Marr said that wasn’t what the scientific advisers were telling the government she then said the WHO had said test test test. Yet on the other hand the WHO hadn’t advised to stop international travel earlier when people are criticising the Government for not stopping horse races and football matches.

So who do you listen to??

[JoetheRam]

6 minutes ago, angieram said:

Here is the data @Uptherams refers to. I think the Government showed this table on a couple of briefings earlier in the week but I haven't seen it in the last few days.  

As you say, @JoetheRam there will be deaths added each day, but this does seem to indicate a general downward trend, albeit very slow. There's a new graph every day that you can check out on this link: 

https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Of course, these are only hospital deaths. And even one is one too many.

Ok that's helpful - I hadn't seen this. 

Yes the trend is encouraging but I guess what I'm saying, which I probably didn't state well, is that there will be an as yet unknown or rather unreported number of deaths to be added to the dates within the last week or so. This will be hundreds, because this data won't be included within the NHS England figures yet for these most recent dates.

 

[Uptherams]

Just now, JoetheRam said:

Ok that's helpful - I hadn't seen this. 

Yes the trend is encouraging but I guess what I'm saying, which I probably didn't state well, is that there will be an as yet unknown or rather unreported number of deaths to be added to the dates within the last week or so. This will be hundreds, because this data won't be included within the NHS England figures yet for these most recent dates.

 

It won't be hundreds though. It is generous to even say 100 additional. No offence, but this is why I'm not about to sit and waste an hour calculating the intervals. 

[A Ram for All Seasons]

45 minutes ago, JoetheRam said:

Except there will be another tranche of possibly hundreds more deaths that relate to yesterday that get included in the numbers in about a weeks time that haven't been recorded yet so that would also give a false impression.

I agree there should be a graph produced to show the number of deaths by date they occured but until you know you've reported every death from that date it will be inaccurate.

 

If it's any consolation, the latest official unemployment figures were published on 21 April and they reflect the situation at the end of February 2020. Utterly useless at a time when thousands are losing their jobs every day.

[GboroRam]

Ok, after a number of complaints about politics in the coronavirus thread, I've moved everything I can find about the orange one or disinfectant to the politics thread. Please try to steer politics in that direction. 

Thank you all for your help. 

[FindernRam]

A young acquaintance of mine is a nurse on a Covid ward. Each 12 hour shift she is watching people die in considerable physical and emotional discomfort.

When she goes home she has a choice of crying herself to sleep (2 nights out of 3), drinking into oblivion (not so far but tempted) or blowing off steam in some semi hysterical way, like singing silly songs or dancing with other team members.

So to those easing Lockdown --Wait a bit longer

To those criticising the odd video- Knock it off until you can do what she has to do, not once but day in day out.

[JoetheRam]

12 minutes ago, Uptherams said:

It won't be hundreds though. It is generous to even say 100 additional. No offence, but this is why I'm not about to sit and waste an hour calculating the intervals. 

We just have varying degrees of faith in the ability of the NHS to report quickly - being in the organisation this is not my experience generally. I would be very surprised if in two weeks time the number for the 24th April isn't around 4-500. Hope I am wrong though.

[ariotofmyown]

3 minutes ago, FindernRam said:

A young acquaintance of mine is a nurse on a Covid ward. Each 12 hour shift she is watching people die in considerable physical and emotional discomfort.

When she goes home she has a choice of crying herself to sleep (2 nights out of 3), drinking into oblivion (not so far but tempted) or blowing off steam in some semi hysterical way, like singing silly songs or dancing with other team members.

So to those easing Lockdown --Wait a bit longer

To those criticising the odd video- Knock it off until you can do what she has to do, not once but day in day out.

I rather listen to the opinions of the people who clap loudest thankyouverymuch!

Been a nurse is a tough job at the best of times (my wife's friend is a nurse and has to rely on food banks sometimes), but this must these last few weeks must have been terrible.

[Guest]

2 minutes ago, FindernRam said:

A young acquaintance of mine is a nurse on a Covid ward. Each 12 hour shift she is watching people die in considerable physical and emotional discomfort.

When she goes home she has a choice of crying herself to sleep (2 nights out of 3), drinking into oblivion (not so far but tempted) or blowing off steam in some semi hysterical way, like singing silly songs or dancing with other team members.

So to those easing Lockdown --Wait a bit longer

To those criticising the odd video- Knock it off until you can do what she has to do, not once but day in day out.

Where is she based.

Friend of mine from Stoke cannot believe how quiet her hospital has been.

They've been preparing and preparing for a avalanche that just hasn't happened.

She said that there are obviously quite a few coronavirus cases but alot leas general admissions.

Just checked, in Derby and Burton there have been 320 deaths. Over a 8 week period that equates to 40 a week, or between 5 and 6 a day.

Split between 2 hospitals it really doesnt sound much and surely much more than the staff are used to seeing?

 

[Guest]

3 minutes ago, JoetheRam said:

We just have varying degrees of faith in the ability of the NHS to report quickly - being in the organisation this is not my experience generally. I would be very surprised if in two weeks time the number for the 24th April isn't around 4-500. Hope I am wrong though.

Is it reasonable to assume that as the numbers drop the reporting will become more efficient and accurate?

[maxjam]

14 minutes ago, FindernRam said:

A young acquaintance of mine is a nurse on a Covid ward. Each 12 hour shift she is watching people die in considerable physical and emotional discomfort.

When she goes home she has a choice of crying herself to sleep (2 nights out of 3), drinking into oblivion (not so far but tempted) or blowing off steam in some semi hysterical way, like singing silly songs or dancing with other team members.

So to those easing Lockdown --Wait a bit longer

If we are significantly under capacity though what is the lockdown achieving?  It was never about saving those we can't save, more to make sure we can save those that will respond to treatment.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8254393/NHS-release-plan-week-redeploy-coronavirus-capacity.html

To be blunt, we can't stay locked up forever and perhaps there was a better way to manage the situation?

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/22/no-lockdown-in-sweden-but-stockholm-could-see-herd-immunity-in-weeks.html

Saw the attached image online about 'unseen' consequences of the lockdown

[ariotofmyown]

1 minute ago, JoetheRam said:

We just have varying degrees of faith in the ability of the NHS to report quickly - being in the organisation this is not my experience generally. I would be very surprised if in two weeks time the number for the 24th April isn't around 4-500. Hope I am wrong though.

A useful chart would be the one @angieram has posted, but with each bar made up of multiple colours to show the time between death date and reporting date, ie deaths reported within 2 days, 5 days, 10 days etc.

We could see then if a high % of the earlier death dates were reported much late than the actual death, then we could see if recent dates were still awaiting lots more reports.

That is assuming reporting delays remain constant. They could be getting quicker as we understand more, or slower due to the volume of cases.

Do they give the raw data of death date and reported date?

[Norman]

6 minutes ago, G STAR RAM said:

Where is she based.

Friend of mine from Stoke cannot believe how quiet her hospital has been.

They've been preparing and preparing for a avalanche that just hasn't happened.

She said that there are obviously quite a few coronavirus cases but alot leas general admissions.

Just checked, in Derby and Burton there have been 320 deaths. Over a 8 week period that equates to 40 a week, or between 5 and 6 a day.

Split between 2 hospitals it really doesnt sound much and surely much more than the staff are used to seeing?

 

Kettering and Peterborough are the same. The only problem being, when it does finally get round these parts, our herd immunity will be low. So you'd assume they have the worst to see coming. Probably around Christmas when the conditions are perfect for Covid-19 to stay alive on surfsces far longer and the fact areas around here will have low immunity. 

[RamNut]

17 minutes ago, G STAR RAM said:

Where is she based.

Friend of mine from Stoke cannot believe how quiet her hospital has been.

They've been preparing and preparing for a avalanche that just hasn't happened.

She said that there are obviously quite a few coronavirus cases but alot leas general admissions.

Just checked, in Derby and Burton there have been 320 deaths. Over a 8 week period that equates to 40 a week, or between 5 and 6 a day.

Split between 2 hospitals it really doesnt sound much and surely much more than the staff are used to seeing?

 

8 weeks?

 

 

[Guest]

7 minutes ago, RamNut said:

8 weeks?

Well 7 weeks and 3 days since the first recorded death

[Tamworthram]

29 minutes ago, maxjam said:

If we are significantly under capacity though what is the lockdown achieving?  It was never about saving those we can't save, more to make sure we can save those that will respond to treatment.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8254393/NHS-release-plan-week-redeploy-coronavirus-capacity.html

To be blunt, we can't stay locked up forever and perhaps there was a better way to manage the situation?

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/22/no-lockdown-in-sweden-but-stockholm-could-see-herd-immunity-in-weeks.html

Saw the attached image online about 'unseen' consequences of the lockdown

I can see that the iceberg graphic is valid as a reminder that we can’t remain in lock down for too long but, it doesn’t tell the story, impacts on the economy and folks mental and physical well being etc if the lock down is relaxed too early resulting in potentially a lot more deaths.

It’s going to be a very tough one to call and, without the benefit of hindsight, difficult to judge when, and at what pace, to relax the restrictions. One thing is for sure, there will always be some one somewhere that will say it was too early and others that say it was too late.

[FindernRam]

52 minutes ago, G STAR RAM said:

Where is she based.

Friend of mine from Stoke cannot believe how quiet her hospital has been.

They've been preparing and preparing for a avalanche that just hasn't happened.

She said that there are obviously quite a few coronavirus cases but alot leas general admissions.

Just checked, in Derby and Burton there have been 320 deaths. Over a 8 week period that equates to 40 a week, or between 5 and 6 a day.

Split between 2 hospitals it really doesnt sound much and surely much more than the staff are used to seeing?

 

Royal Derby, and the deaths are on top of the "normal" ones. She specialises in palliative care so has experience of end of life. But this is really getting to her so I don't care what the bland stats say.

Her partner works in QMC and is similarly stressed, normally works in A&E but spends most shifts now in Critical Care.

[A Ram for All Seasons]

This fella knows his stuff and the interview is well worth reading. He also does a 45 minute podcast on German radio three times a week.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/26/virologist-christian-drosten-germany-coronavirus-expert-interview

[Norman]

China qurantines a city of 10 million and Beijing is shutting gyms and bars apparently. 

Nothing to see. Move on people. Just 7 new cases from People who have visited Russia reported..

[GboroRam]

2 hours ago, maxjam said:

If we are significantly under capacity though what is the lockdown achieving?  It was never about saving those we can't save, more to make sure we can save those that will respond to treatment.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8254393/NHS-release-plan-week-redeploy-coronavirus-capacity.html

To be blunt, we can't stay locked up forever and perhaps there was a better way to manage the situation?

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/22/no-lockdown-in-sweden-but-stockholm-could-see-herd-immunity-in-weeks.html

Saw the attached image online about 'unseen' consequences of the lockdown

I think the image shows that the response worked. Because coronavirus spreads exponentially, if you lose control of it, it grows at a huge rate. The lockdown has ensured we didn't get flooded with critically ill patients. 

How successful was it? Impossible to say with the limited data we have.