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Carl Sagan

Perhaps we're not as good as we think? Yes it's XG

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All this XG nonsense is just complete BS, statistics for the sake of statistics. For example, consider a ball at a given point at the edge of the opposition's penalty area. I would suggest that if that ball was at the feet of Mason Mount or Harry Wilson then the probability of the ball ending up in the back of the net would be greater than if it was at the feet of, say, Curtis Davies or Richard Keogh. What those probabilities are, though, will also be dependent of the positions and abilities of the opposition defenders. All of these factors are subjective. You can apply all the science you like to an educated guess but it will never become more than an educated guess.

Let's just enjoy the game and hope that the Rams continue to score more REAL goals than the opposition.

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5 hours ago, Carl Sagan said:

Obviously there are things to like in it, in that they say the team in the most obvious false position are the gumps, who should be down near the bottom of the league but have got lucky so far. However, I'm surprised they drop us any places, but they do, down to 9th place. I thought we were creating a lot of chances and not taking tehm all, but the claim from this is that we've been pretty cinical.

I would like to think the first bit is the most clear indication of accuracy of the stat BUT what it really means is we have players capable of taking harder chances - We're scoring more half-chances than we should

Nugent (for me) is one of those players who scores chances but doesn't get that many half chances in - And he was our main striker last season - Marriott is a guy who takes the half chances - I'd suggest Mount, Wilson and Lawrence are too (maybe Waghorn?)

Forest have a striker who is a renowned expert at Grabben the half chance...

4 hours ago, Carl Sagan said:

I do think we've recently become more accurate, in that we've been having a lot of shots on target of late.

I guess it would be possible to go through all the timelines of the Expermental361 guy but I'm not going to do it. He says nice things about us against Brum "Derby recovered well from conceding early at home to Birmingham by dominating the match thereafter; the visitors weren’t able to muster a single shot after the interval" and here's his graph of the game:

1023959063_20181107Experimenta361JPG.thumb.JPG.3a18d8690493cb0ad1bb6ab00729d224.JPG

Bennett had a 0.4 XG? For the goal he scored from about 2 inches out?

Brilliant...

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35 minutes ago, cheron85 said:

I would like to think the first bit is the most clear indication of accuracy of the stat BUT what it really means is we have players capable of taking harder chances - We're scoring more half-chances than we should

Nugent (for me) is one of those players who scores chances but doesn't get that many half chances in - And he was our main striker last season - Marriott is a guy who takes the half chances - I'd suggest Mount, Wilson and Lawrence are too (maybe Waghorn?)

Forest have a striker who is a renowned expert at Grabben the half chance...

Bennett had a 0.4 XG? For the goal he scored from about 2 inches out?

Brilliant...

Interesting take. Also Keogh missed from the corner from a foot out but apparently that was also less than half an expected goal! The Wilson shot for the corner and then Keogh's chance together only make half?

Someone (sorry I can't go back through the thread from here) also did a good analysis saying we're taking much more long shots than most teams, which is why our XG is lower. I'm delighted we are finally shooting from distance, and it's clearly no accident we're doing that with Frank, who was famous for it. And Wilson, Mount, Lawrence, Huddlestone, Waghorn and Johnson all have excellent long-shot ability so it's not luck - Harry Wilson's last four goals all coming from outside the box, for instance.

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There is a thing called DIKW. D is for data, i.e. the raw stats (goals scored, tackles made etc). I is information - translating that data into something meaningful - i.e - Derby won because they had more shots, and converted more chances. K is Knowledge - knowing that when you create more chances - you are likely to win the game. W is for Wisdom - he is a right back that cant get in our team - cause we are so bleeding good we will win this league.

All other statistical analysis is black magic, and will result is permanent sight loss.

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This is the most important table

Championship

6 May 2019

pos    team                    pl      pts

1        Derby                  46      92

2         Meh...……………………………..

3         Meh...……………………………..

 

That's the one I want to see.🤞

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8 hours ago, Carl Sagan said:

We debated Opta's weird stat, expected goals (known as XG) last year. Well, Sky have gone through the Championship to date looking at expected goals versus real goals to see whi, in thie mind, in playing best and not getting the rewards. Here's their table:

1425293972_20181107expectedgoals.thumb.JPG.2785093aee1c9dfa140dacd5e38679a7.JPG

There's a lot of spiel at https://www.skysports.com/football/news/11095/11546482/who-deserves-to-be-top-of-the-sky-bet-championship

Obviously there are things to like in it, in that they say the team in the most obvious false position are the gumps, who should be down near the bottom of the league but have got lucky so far. However, I'm surprised they drop us any places, but they do, down to 9th place. I thought we were creating a lot of chances and not taking tehm all, but the claim from this is that we've been pretty cinical.

A bit of fun. Given it does have the top 3 in the top 3 places there's probably some slight usefulness to it, but if so, shoud we all curb our enthusiasm?

Discuss!

 

So you precipitated a dire run of form by posting the same hypotheses whilst we were going well under Rowett and yet it struck you as a good idea to do the same this season just as we're beginning to fly under Frank and Jody. What bit of 'don't bloomin bok us' is so hard to understand? #offthecrhistmascardlist

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1 hour ago, 86 points said:

So you precipitated a dire run of form by posting the same hypotheses whilst we were going well under Rowett and yet it struck you as a good idea to do the same this season just as we're beginning to fly under Frank and Jody. What bit of 'don't bloomin bok us' is so hard to understand? #offthecrhistmascardlist

 

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9 hours ago, McLovin said:

I don’t want to get into THAT debate again but all I can say is don’t be quick to dismiss it. Carl made a similar post last year when Rowett was in charge when we were around second in the league before the collapse.

Just enjoy the ride and see where it takes us because it’s a lot more enjoyable than last year.

What I will say though is that we are conceding too many goals which could cost us long term. There’s only so many times that we can come from behind to win.

Yes, spot on. 

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