richinspain Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 Jimmy Sirrel - "Statistics are like a mini skirt - very pretty but hide what is really important!". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sith Happens Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 35 minutes ago, StivePesley said: Not quite - it's based on the key indicators, like - did I actually talk to any girls, did any of them let me buy them a drink, did I get on really well with any of them etc if you expected to cop off but stood in the corner all night and didn't even look at anyone then xCO is very low Now you tell me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gil Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 The stat isn't surprising at all. We've only just begun to play how Frank wants us to play these past couple of weeks. It bodes extremely well for the rest of the season considering we're where we currently are despite not peaking yet. Means we can get results even without playing well. It's only after Bryso got injured against Sheffield United that we finally started playing our best team. Our front 6 of Marriott, Lawrence, Waghorn, Wilson, Mount & Huddlestone have barely played together. Huge difference to when Bradley Johnson, Mason Bennett, Jozefzoon, Nugent etc were all regulars. Only Mason Mount has been a regular all season out of all of them & even he's was forced to miss Birmingham & the 2nd half against Boro. Marriott: Needed time to adjust to the team/league & has only made 5 starts all season. Hottest striker in the League at the moment. Waghorn: Another one that needed time to adjust. Finally started showing his real quality these past couple of weeks but has gone down yet again Wilson: Probably the best player in the League on current form. Just the 9 starts in the League & only just recently deployed centrally where he looks fantastic. Lawrence: Looks a completely different player in recent weeks. So much more smarter & intelligent with & without the ball now. Playing a team oriented game now. Hasn't been available all season either. Huddlestone: Arguably our most important player. Completely dominates game & is thriving with the youthful energy around him. Backbone of the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FindernRam Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 Statistics freaks may want to look at fivethirtyeight.com for a different way of predicting these things. Strange thing is that nearly all these form predictors seem to forecast a narrower spread of points over the season for the top and bottom teams i.e Less points to win the league or get promoted but more points than usual will still see you demoted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaintRam Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 2 hours ago, Spanish said: Just for clarity, lets compare this with the table @Carl Sagan posted midway through that season: The mid-season xG table is about as different from the end-of-season xG table as either xG table is from the real table. Ergo, I conclude that its pointless information. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OohMartWright Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 All this XG nonsense is just complete BS, statistics for the sake of statistics. For example, consider a ball at a given point at the edge of the opposition's penalty area. I would suggest that if that ball was at the feet of Mason Mount or Harry Wilson then the probability of the ball ending up in the back of the net would be greater than if it was at the feet of, say, Curtis Davies or Richard Keogh. What those probabilities are, though, will also be dependent of the positions and abilities of the opposition defenders. All of these factors are subjective. You can apply all the science you like to an educated guess but it will never become more than an educated guess. Let's just enjoy the game and hope that the Rams continue to score more REAL goals than the opposition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RadioactiveWaste Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 Stats might tell you something, but can never tell you the whole story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nottingram Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 I might also be wrong but xG doesn’t take into account the quality of player either? If me and Sergio Aguero were both running one on one against de Gea, we’d have the same xG, whereas everyone knows I would be more likely to finish it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheron85 Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 5 hours ago, Carl Sagan said: Obviously there are things to like in it, in that they say the team in the most obvious false position are the gumps, who should be down near the bottom of the league but have got lucky so far. However, I'm surprised they drop us any places, but they do, down to 9th place. I thought we were creating a lot of chances and not taking tehm all, but the claim from this is that we've been pretty cinical. I would like to think the first bit is the most clear indication of accuracy of the stat BUT what it really means is we have players capable of taking harder chances - We're scoring more half-chances than we should Nugent (for me) is one of those players who scores chances but doesn't get that many half chances in - And he was our main striker last season - Marriott is a guy who takes the half chances - I'd suggest Mount, Wilson and Lawrence are too (maybe Waghorn?) Forest have a striker who is a renowned expert at Grabben the half chance... 4 hours ago, Carl Sagan said: I do think we've recently become more accurate, in that we've been having a lot of shots on target of late. I guess it would be possible to go through all the timelines of the Expermental361 guy but I'm not going to do it. He says nice things about us against Brum "Derby recovered well from conceding early at home to Birmingham by dominating the match thereafter; the visitors weren’t able to muster a single shot after the interval" and here's his graph of the game: Bennett had a 0.4 XG? For the goal he scored from about 2 inches out? Brilliant... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B4ev6is Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 Stuff what sky think Derby playing good football and creating loads of chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carl Sagan Posted November 7, 2018 Author Share Posted November 7, 2018 35 minutes ago, cheron85 said: I would like to think the first bit is the most clear indication of accuracy of the stat BUT what it really means is we have players capable of taking harder chances - We're scoring more half-chances than we should Nugent (for me) is one of those players who scores chances but doesn't get that many half chances in - And he was our main striker last season - Marriott is a guy who takes the half chances - I'd suggest Mount, Wilson and Lawrence are too (maybe Waghorn?) Forest have a striker who is a renowned expert at Grabben the half chance... Bennett had a 0.4 XG? For the goal he scored from about 2 inches out? Brilliant... Interesting take. Also Keogh missed from the corner from a foot out but apparently that was also less than half an expected goal! The Wilson shot for the corner and then Keogh's chance together only make half? Someone (sorry I can't go back through the thread from here) also did a good analysis saying we're taking much more long shots than most teams, which is why our XG is lower. I'm delighted we are finally shooting from distance, and it's clearly no accident we're doing that with Frank, who was famous for it. And Wilson, Mount, Lawrence, Huddlestone, Waghorn and Johnson all have excellent long-shot ability so it's not luck - Harry Wilson's last four goals all coming from outside the box, for instance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ramsbottom Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Igorwasking Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 There is a thing called DIKW. D is for data, i.e. the raw stats (goals scored, tackles made etc). I is information - translating that data into something meaningful - i.e - Derby won because they had more shots, and converted more chances. K is Knowledge - knowing that when you create more chances - you are likely to win the game. W is for Wisdom - he is a right back that cant get in our team - cause we are so bleeding good we will win this league. All other statistical analysis is black magic, and will result is permanent sight loss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ram59 Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 This is the most important table Championship 6 May 2019 pos team pl pts 1 Derby 46 92 2 Meh...…………………………….. 3 Meh...…………………………….. That's the one I want to see.? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Comrade 86 Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 8 hours ago, Carl Sagan said: We debated Opta's weird stat, expected goals (known as XG) last year. Well, Sky have gone through the Championship to date looking at expected goals versus real goals to see whi, in thie mind, in playing best and not getting the rewards. Here's their table: There's a lot of spiel at https://www.skysports.com/football/news/11095/11546482/who-deserves-to-be-top-of-the-sky-bet-championship Obviously there are things to like in it, in that they say the team in the most obvious false position are the gumps, who should be down near the bottom of the league but have got lucky so far. However, I'm surprised they drop us any places, but they do, down to 9th place. I thought we were creating a lot of chances and not taking tehm all, but the claim from this is that we've been pretty cinical. A bit of fun. Given it does have the top 3 in the top 3 places there's probably some slight usefulness to it, but if so, shoud we all curb our enthusiasm? Discuss! So you precipitated a dire run of form by posting the same hypotheses whilst we were going well under Rowett and yet it struck you as a good idea to do the same this season just as we're beginning to fly under Frank and Jody. What bit of 'don't bloomin bok us' is so hard to understand? #offthecrhistmascardlist Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JuanFloEvraTheCocu'sNesta Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 I prefer the table based on 'AP', actual poibts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carl Sagan Posted November 7, 2018 Author Share Posted November 7, 2018 1 hour ago, 86 points said: So you precipitated a dire run of form by posting the same hypotheses whilst we were going well under Rowett and yet it struck you as a good idea to do the same this season just as we're beginning to fly under Frank and Jody. What bit of 'don't bloomin bok us' is so hard to understand? #offthecrhistmascardlist Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
europia Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 9 hours ago, McLovin said: I don’t want to get into THAT debate again but all I can say is don’t be quick to dismiss it. Carl made a similar post last year when Rowett was in charge when we were around second in the league before the collapse. Just enjoy the ride and see where it takes us because it’s a lot more enjoyable than last year. What I will say though is that we are conceding too many goals which could cost us long term. There’s only so many times that we can come from behind to win. Yes, spot on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ken Tram Posted November 7, 2018 Share Posted November 7, 2018 10 hours ago, Carl Sagan said: The table is red, so it's clearly a load of rubbish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruud Aralliss Posted November 8, 2018 Share Posted November 8, 2018 88.2% of statistics are made up on the spot. It seems even the remaining 11.8% should also be treated with caution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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