Would it be that bad ?

[ThePrisoner]

31 minutes ago, Edtheram said:

I think 99% of us agree that we need a new left back for definite cant watch Bambi on ice sorry forsyth again next season or Mr i cant cross a ball Olsson ? Bad mood today can you tell? ?

You won’t be watching Olson as he’s out injured until January. 

[Sexydadbod]

20 minutes ago, Carnero said:

Yet came 6th last year.

Which was due to Rowett’s pragmatic tactics and the reliance of a few players, CArson, Davies and Vydra according to stats. 

Expected goals, no matter how many people want to dismiss it, is an important stat and suggested that we overachieved a lot last season. It had us finishing much of the season around midtable but Carson, Davies and Vydra hit heights that were not normal for championship standards. As soon as their form dipped even by just a little bit, our form between late January and April dipped drastically.

[Day]

1 minute ago, McLovin said:

Which was due to Rowett’s pragmatic tactics and the reliance of a few players, CArson, Davies and Vydra according to stats. 

Expected goals, no matter how many people want to dismiss it, is an important stat and suggested that we overachieved a lot last season. It had us finishing much of the season around midtable but Carson, Davies and Vydra hit heights that were not normal for championship standards. As soon as their form dipped even by just a little bit, our form between last January and April dipped drastically.

It's not an important stat though is it, as fairly meaningless as each season you have teams that underachieve and overachieve which is decided largely based on opinion.

Goals scored is a far more important stat, goals that have actually been scored, not expected to be. 

You have Facebook, Instagram and Twitter trying to decide what posts you want to see, now we have computers trying to decide how many goals a football team will score. Bloody computers.

[Sexydadbod]

@Carl Sagan actually did an interesting thread in the middle of the season about expected goals. It shouldn’t  be written off. This is just based off last season and suggests we overachieved.

 

[Sexydadbod]

1 minute ago, David said:

It's not an important stat though is it, as fairly meaningless as each season you have teams that underachieve and overachieve which is decided largely based on opinion.

Goals scored is a far more important stat, goals that have actually been scored, not expected to be. 

You have Facebook, Instagram and Twitter trying to decide what posts you want to see, now we have computers trying to decide how many goals a football team will score. Bloody computers.

It is important though because it suggested that our form was not sustainable, which proved to be correct as at one stage we didn’t win for 2 months. Our early season form is what saw us into the play offs in the end. Bad form or we were reverting back to how good we actually were? I’d say a combination of both.

[RoyMac5]

2 minutes ago, McLovin said:

@Carl Sagan actually did an interesting thread in the middle of the season about expected goals. It wouldn’t be written off. This is just based off last season and suggests we overachieved.

 

But wasn’t that overachieving playing the way we did then (hopes Frank changes that)?

[Carnero]

4 minutes ago, McLovin said:

It is important though 

It really isn't.

[Sexydadbod]

Just now, RoyMac5 said:

But wasn’t that overachieving playing the way we did then (hopes Frank changes that)?

But then you’d have to question why we played that way? I didn’t like Rowett’s football at all but he was the one who saw these players train day in day out. If we could have played more attacking, attractive football and kept the same position, I’m sure we would have. Rowett’s quotes about not liking possession football seem to have been twisted around a bit to suggest he didn’t like attacking football. What he meant was that he didn’t like playing possession football just for the sake of it and needlessly passing around the back.

[The Scarlet Pimpernel]

7 minutes ago, McLovin said:

@Carl Sagan actually did an interesting thread in the middle of the season about expected goals. It shouldn’t  be written off. This is just based off last season and suggests we overachieved.

 

Any idea how they worked out expected goals? What criteria did they use?

[Sexydadbod]

1 minute ago, Carnero said:

It really isn't.

The final table and failing to win in 2 months suggests it is important.

[Day]

20 minutes ago, McLovin said:

It is important though because it suggested that our form was not sustainable, which proved to be correct as at one stage we didn’t win for 2 months. Our early season form is what saw us into the play offs in the end. Bad form or we were reverting back to how good we actually were? I’d say a combination of both.

It's not important though, not at all, in fact that thread you posted highlights just how little should be paid to it as it was correct. 

When we was flying we were in 2nd place, but their computer had us in 13th. It was miles off, we never dropped to 13th once, in fact we went on a horrid run and finished 6th, 15 points ahead of 13th which is the most important stat of them all. Points.

The league isn't won or lost on expected goals, expected results, it's based on actual goals, actual wins.

This is where stats go too far and become utterly meaningless.

[Carnero]

Just now, McLovin said:

The final table

The one where we finished 6th?

Like I said earlier?

[RoyMac5]

2 minutes ago, McLovin said:

But then you’d have to question why we played that way? I didn’t like Rowett’s football at all but he was the one who saw these players train day in day out. If we could have played more attacking, attractive football and kept the same position, I’m sure we would have.

The $64 million dollar question! Most posters who’ve followed Rowett might say he played how he wanted regardless of who was in the squad.

[Sexydadbod]

Just now, Carnero said:

The one where we finished 6th?

Like I said earlier?

Because of how fantastic form at the start of the season is what saw us through in the end. Every other mid table team fortunately went through a poor spell , an anomaly, at the same time we did. Very rare for that to happen in the championship. If we went through a similar poor spell at some stage in the upcoming season, we could be punished 

[BathRam72]

5 minutes ago, RoyMac5 said:

The $64 million dollar question! Most posters who’ve followed Rowett might say he played how he wanted regardless of who was in the squad.

Isn't that the 64 million dollar dollar question???

[Day]

@McLovin Take a look at the "expected" Premier League table for last season. 

Man City 91pts
Liverpool 79pts
Spurs 76pts
Chelsea 68pts
Arsenal 66pts
Man Utd 62pts

How it finished

Man City 100pts
Man Utd 81pts
Spurs 77pts
Liverpool 75pts
Chelsea 70pts
Arsenal 63tps

Way off, in fact they got it wrong with Man Utd 18pts, Palace 14pts, Southampton & Burnley 13pts, WBA 12pts, Leicester, Man City 9ts, these make big differences in the table.

It's not an interesting stat, it's a prediction league which we have on this forum every season, we all write down where we think clubs will finish and I bet you will find some plonker on here with an old Windows computer that got closer to calling last seasons PL top 6 before a ball was kicked. 

[Edtheram]

Thought we had 3 million come in from Huddersfield for ince again a month ago? 2 million for Weimann that equals 5 million so i dont understand why we cant pay a loan fee or transfer fee of more than 1.5 million? 

[BathRam72]

3 minutes ago, Edtheram said:

Thought we had 3 million come in from Huddersfield for ince again a month ago? 2 million for Weimann that equals 5 million so i dont understand why we cant pay a loan fee or transfer fee of more than 1.5 million? 

I think the manager would like to assess his squad first. He has only had a few days so far and might want to see them in action, allbeit friendlies.

Not as if he has had much time. We wouldn't want any mistakes and him getting rid of players based on the say so of a forum if he can see potential in those we perceive as deadwood.

Chill my friend it will happen.

[Sexydadbod]

The way I see it is that not a lot changed between when we were in fantastic form and when we went two months without a win. The main difference was that Vydra’s goals dried up and Carson’s and Davies’ performances dipped and the team as a whole felt the consequences of that due to the reliance particularly on these three players. In the good spell, we still conceded many chances and Carson had to pull out many wonderful saves, whilst Davies’ defensive stats were immense, coming on top as the best in the league in the end? 

Is it fair or realistic to expect Carson, Davies or Vydra(if he stays) to play as well as they did again? It depends how highly you rate them. Davies and Carson are probably more reliable in that aspect as Vydra’s goal returns fluctuate season by season.

[Sexydadbod]

8 minutes ago, David said:

@McLovin Take a look at the "expected" Premier League table for last season. 

Man City 91pts
Liverpool 79pts
Spurs 76pts
Chelsea 68pts
Arsenal 66pts
Man Utd 62pts

How it finished

Man City 100pts
Man Utd 81pts
Spurs 77pts
Liverpool 75pts
Chelsea 70pts
Arsenal 63tps

Way off, in fact they got it wrong with Man Utd 18pts, Palace 14pts, Southampton & Burnley 13pts, WBA 12pts, Leicester, Man City 9ts, these make big differences in the table.

It's not an interesting stat, it's a prediction league which we have on this forum every season, we all write down where we think clubs will finish and I bet you will find some plonker on here with an old Windows computer that got closer to calling last seasons PL top 6 before a ball was kicked. 

It suggests that Man Utd overachieved and if you watched them play, that’s correct as they relied heavily on Lukaku. And it’s not based on predictions at all, it’s based on taking all the statistics into consideration. Many clubs use it so it suggests that it is important, Klopp and Mourinho have talked about it in the past .I’m not here to change your mind on it but it is a very important statistic, it’s naive to suggest it isn’t. It highlights where teams weaknesses are and if the way they play is sustainable or not, which is why Leicester completely fell off the season after they won the league.