Would it be that bad ?

[Day]

26 minutes ago, Edtheram said:

Thought we had 3 million come in from Huddersfield for ince again a month ago? 2 million for Weimann that equals 5 million so i dont understand why we cant pay a loan fee or transfer fee of more than 1.5 million? 

Not heard the club say we can't, just because we haven't yet doesn't mean we can't. 

We still have a large squad, plus 3 additions to the first team from the U23s with Thomas, Elsnik and Bogle. Now you can argue they are not real signings, but Will Hughes and Jeff Hendrick came through the same way and were very real.

So you can either look at it as one out, none in or one out and three in.

Fact is the first team squad is 28 players, which is carrying 10 players above the match day squad.

Carson, Mitchell, Roos, Forsyth, Keogh, Wisdom, Pearce, Lowe, Olsson, Davies, Bogle, Bryson, Anya, Johnson, Butterfield, Hanson, Thorne, Ledley, Huddlestone, Thomas, Elsnik, Martin, Lawrence, Bennett, Blackman, Vydra, Nugent, Jerome

Expect Lampard would probably be looking to move a number of those on still, which might be proving to be a difficult task.

[Ambitious]

8 minutes ago, McLovin said:

But then you’d have to question why we played that way? I didn’t like Rowett’s football at all but he was the one who saw these players train day in day out. If we could have played more attacking, attractive football and kept the same position, I’m sure we would have. Rowett’s quotes about not liking possession football seem to have been twisted around a bit to suggest he didn’t like attacking football. What he meant was that he didn’t like playing possession football just for the sake of it and needlessly passing around the back.

Rowett instructed our team to play that way because it's the way he knew how to manage. In theory & practice, it was the complete opposite to what McClaren had asked them to do. Rowett could organise a team out of possession better than McClaren, so this is why he based his tactics on not having the ball. McClaren did the exact opposite - whilst I understand there will be an overlap - the emphasis from both managers couldn't be further apart. It's like Allardyce & Guardiola. 

Managers will manage the way they can, not base it on the players they have at the club. I strongly believe that. 

With that in mind, the only person who can answer the question is Frank Lampard - okay maybe some of his staff too. We will no doubt see players improve under his tutorship, just like we will no doubt see players go backwards & struggle to adapt. It's exactly why players tend to go in & out of form under different managers, systems...etc.

I actually you would have to be braindead to sign an inform player, especially if they are currently in a team playing a different role & team. Nick Blackman & Bradley Johnson stand out. Blackman scoring goals upfront for Reading... comes here to play on the wing. Bradley Johnson scoring goals out wide for Norwich... comes here to play in CM, often in a deeper role. Now, it's not enough to put them in their position, we have to find out the complexities of what Reading & Norwich were doing at the time to get them scoring. Vydra, for example, needed to drop a bit deeper so that he wasn't being man marked and he had a bit of time and space. 

Lampard will know what he needs. 

As for everyone else improving - absolutely not. When a club makes a signing, it doesn't necessarily improve - it only changes. The impression football fans get, up and down the country, is when they sign a player it will improve them. It's only 12 months down the line when they're screaming at them on Twitter they realise they weren't right. 

[Day]

1 minute ago, McLovin said:

It suggests that Man Utd overachieved and if you watched them play, that’s correct as they relied heavily on Lukaku. And it’s not based on predictions at all, it’s based on taking all the statistics into consideration. Many clubs use it so it suggests that it is important, Klopp and Mourinho have talked about it in the past .I’m not here to change your mind on it but it is a very important statistic, it’s naive to suggest it isn’t. It highlights where teams weaknesses are and if the way they play is sustainable or not, which is why Leicester completely fell off the season after they won the league. 

It's not important, no matter how many times you try and tell us it is.

You can change my mind if you show me where UEFA have taken Man Utd out the Champions League as they "overachieved" last season. 

You can change my mind if the EFL announce last seasons play offs are to be replayed as Derby were not expected to be there.

Until then it's a meaningless statistics which all it does is give people on the internet the power to point fingers at clubs that overachieved or underachieved with #stats.

[Sexydadbod]

3 minutes ago, David said:

It's not important, no matter how many times you try and tell us it is.

You can change my mind if you show me where UEFA have taken Man Utd out the Champions League as they "overachieved" last season. 

You can change my mind if the EFL announce last seasons play offs are to be replayed as Derby were not expected to be there.

Until then it's a meaningless statistics which all it does is give people on the internet the power to point fingers at clubs that overachieved or underachieved with #stats.

But is an explanation as to why we went two months without a win after such a good run of form, incidentally when Vydra, Carson and Davies were playing out of their skins, and the performances didn’t really change. We seem to have gone off on a tangent here out the original point was that the squad needs changes. 

It suggests that we weren’t as good as the final table suggests and in any *normal* championship season we would have been around mid table, but for everyone else’s poor form at the same time as ours which allowed us to scrape into 6th in the end.

[RamsFan10]

2 hours ago, RiddingsRam said:

Seen a lot of comments about a lack of activity regarding incoming transfers . No jumping the gun and a big what if ? But what if we didn't sign anyone ? Could we still compete ? I personally think so , look at the quality in the squad . Maybe all it needs is someone to get that quality to gel . Cue Frank and the boys ....... 

1) Yes

2) Hmm, maybe for 6th. 

[Sexydadbod]

This article discusses expected goals in its simplest form.

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/www.goal.com/en-gb/amp/news/expected-goals-football-soccer-statistic-explained/1u6ww9f69rhah15ahllye5ketl

[Day]

3 minutes ago, McLovin said:

But is an explanation as to why we went two months without a win after such a good run of form, incidentally when Vydra, Carson and Davies were playing out of their skins, and the performances didn’t really change. We seem to have gone off on a tangent here out the original point was that the squad needs changes. 

It suggests that we weren’t as good as the final table suggests and in any *normal* championship season we would have been around mid table, but for everyone else’s poor form at the same time as ours which allowed us to scrape into 6th in the end.

Or that Carson, Davies and Vydra were performing to their abilities and not pulling off unbelievable heroics. 

Either way Derby "overachieving" isn't new, ever since McClaren took us to Wembley each season we have overachieved apparently, so why not next season as well, it's what we're good at.

[EnigmaRam]

Before Xmas we were lucky, after Xmas we weren’t. That was down to our luck as much as others. The amount of easy goals missed by opposing teams before Xmas was amazing. After Xmas they started converting them. Just as much is as them whether we get the points or they do

[Sexydadbod]

“Winning games in that way, though, tends not to be sustainable, and expected goals gives us a window into the teams that might expect to be brought back down to earth - or go on a good run once their bad luck ends.

The prime example is Juventus in 2015-16. They started the Serie A season poorly in terms of results, winning just three of their first 10 games, but their expected goals numbers were excellent. They were dominating most of their games in terms of chances, but not getting the rewards.

The Bianconeri kept plugging away and sure enough, their luck eventually turned and they won 15 matches in a row. By the end of the season, they were champions by nine points.”

The first paragraph is what I believe happened to us in the season, I might be wrong but it’s my view.

[EnigmaRam]

I just want something new and shiny so the doom mongers can have a new scapegoat in 6 months time.

bored of Keogh, Martin, Blackman, butters and Johnson being scape goat of the week!

[Curtains]

Lampard could get the team moving forward. 

 

[archied]

Jeez what a load of guff ,,,

expected goals ???? Based on conversion rate to shots? , does it take into account the type of chances the team are creating ? Vydra may have ten shots that are much harder to convert then ten that are much easier to convert so the expected thing is tainted there already ,,, vydras form / conversation rate could have far more to do with our team and the opposition than himself,,so guff guff guff in the main with perhaps the smallest of insightful value in over/ under achieving, vydras over avieving could have far more to do with hudds than it does vydra in any given period,

shock horror shock ,,, three players in the team have a dip in form and we win less ????? Could be any three players in the team , three others could then have an upturn in form and offset it ? 

Like everybody else I want the excitement of new blood but I don’t for one minute dismiss the fact that we have some bloody good players at the club who are competing for and getting in play offs year on year and with the right coaching , attitude ,formation and even a few choice loans or u23 step ups could catch fire ,,, remember clough /mac1 anybody ? 

We certainly have enough quality to keep us in the mix at least till jan at which point there’s no reason we could not have identified what we need to kick on to promotion and go out and get it ,,,

as I say ,the fan in me wants players in now but I also don’t want us to repeat the mistakes we have made over the last few years in terms of wasted money for little or no improvement ,

martin may come in and be fantastic again , Thorne may come back and be a revelation , Bryson may have an Indian summer , Lawrence may settle and have a fantastic season ,, I could go on 

[AmericanRam]

I do us see us eventually signing some players,but agree that what we have now should be good enough to compete; especially also like the things Lampard has said as well.

[Sexydadbod]

35 minutes ago, archied said:

Jeez what a load of guff ,,,

expected goals ???? Based on conversion rate to shots? , does it take into account the type of chances the team are creating ? Vydra may have ten shots that are much harder to convert then ten that are much easier to convert so the expected thing is tainted there already ,,, vydras form / conversation rate could have far more to do with our team and the opposition than himself,,so guff guff guff in the main with perhaps the smallest of insightful value in over/ under achieving, vydras over avieving could have far more to do with hudds than it does vydra in any given period,

shock horror shock ,,, three players in the team have a dip in form and we win less ????? Could be any three players in the team , three others could then have an upturn in form and offset it ? 

Like everybody else I want the excitement of new blood but I don’t for one minute dismiss the fact that we have some bloody good players at the club who are competing for and getting in play offs year on year and with the right coaching , attitude ,formation and even a few choice loans or u23 step ups could catch fire ,,, remember clough /mac1 anybody ? 

We certainly have enough quality to keep us in the mix at least till jan at which point there’s no reason we could not have identified what we need to kick on to promotion and go out and get it ,,,

as I say ,the fan in me wants players in now but I also don’t want us to repeat the mistakes we have made over the last few years in terms of wasted money for little or no improvement ,

martin may come in and be fantastic again , Thorne may come back and be a revelation , Bryson may have an Indian summer , Lawrence may settle and have a fantastic season ,, I could go on 

Expected goals takes into account everything you said. If it’s so irrelevant then why do many clubs use it? Statistics aren’t everything but if they are used properly, they are very effective. Klopp at Liverpool has stated that he’s a massive fan of stats like these.

[Day]

4 minutes ago, McLovin said:

Expected goals takes into account everything you said. If it’s so irrelevant then why do many clubs use it? Statistics aren’t everything but if they are used properly, they are very effective. Klopp at Liverpool has stated that he’s a massive fan of stats like these.

Massive fan maybe, but has he claimed it is an important statistic? 

I can understand the interest in it, clubs love stats even down to how high the players jump in training, but I will pull you up on the importance of the expected goals stat.

[Sexydadbod]

Football is always evolving and if you can use things like expected goals to be one step of your opponent then why not use it so you can resolve any potential issues on the training ground before they become costly on matchdays. I’m not saying to rely on it but it’s certainly something to look at.

When Arsene Wenger first came to England, he instantly tried to improve the diets of the players and the arsenal players complained by saying, we’ve won trophies in the past, why do we need to improve our diets? They eventually listened to him and they went on to have a period of success before everyone else caught up with Wenger’s methods. It seems ridiculous now but at that time, there was a drinking culture in English football. If things like sports science and statistics were irrelevant, clubs wouldn’t bother using them but the fact that they are using them suggests that it does have a place in the game.

[Sexydadbod]

1 minute ago, David said:

Massive fan maybe, but has he claimed it is an important statistic? 

I can understand the interest in it, clubs love stats even down to how high the players jump in training, but I will pull you up on the importance of the expected goals stat.

Did you read the article I posted earlier?

[Day]

Just now, McLovin said:

Did you read the article I posted earlier?

I didn’t no, did it have a quote from Klopp where he said it’s an important statistic?

[FindernRam]

Is there a limit to first team squad size by EFL? If there is and we don't lose anybody no young player is going to get a sniff!

[Sexydadbod]

“There are two primary ways in which clubs and analysts are putting expected goals to use: one generally concerns teams and the other individual players.”

 

An extract of the article