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is this our year for promation

B4ev6is

By B4ev6is
in Derby County Forum

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Bris Vegas

Bris Vegas

Posted
Posted

I'll have a case of Negra Modello on that with you? with the next three seasons as the limit? 'http://www.dcfcfans.co.uk/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/wink' class='bbc_emoticon' alt=';)' />

Done!

I'm hoping for abit of reverse psychology with my posts.. Aim for the worst and be pleasantly suprised if we win promotion..

It's no fun being constantly let down by having high expectations

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Albert

Albert

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Well, from all the nonsense of players by average ratings I've come up with a way of estimating our chances of making a certain finish this year. I used the averaged Championship table from 1997-2012 that I made a while back as a way of determining what positions corresponded to what points per game. Long story short, I came up with a rough estimate of our chances of various positions from where we are currently. Here are the results in terms of likelihood of reaching each selected position or better:

Chance of finish by position or better:

1st: 0.03% (3999-1)

2nd: 2% (139-3)

6th: 33% (2-1)

10th: 67% (1-2)

12th: 87% (3-20)

21st: 99.97% (1-3332)

23rd: 99.998% (1-49999)

It gave the most likely position as 8th.

Seems a tad skewed... For the sake of comparison, running our positions at the same time for our seasons since we've been back in the Championship for their final positions gives (I'll also include the top 6 chance that I got for those seasons):

2011-12:

Actual Finish (12th): 34% (2-1)

Top 6: 3% (37-1)

Most Likely: 14th

2010-11:

Actual Finish (19th): 97% (1-30)

Top 6: 10% (46-5)

Most Likely: 12th

2009-10:

Actual Finish (14th): 19% (17-4)

Top 6: 0.2% (1103-2)

Most Likely: 18th

2008-09:

Actual Finish (18th): 78% (5-18)

Top 6: 0.1% (3541-5)

Most Likely: 16th

Not too bad I guess... Especially considering it's made on an approximated league table and some assumptions that could keep a good debate going on here for a while.

Still, if nothing else, we are closer to the playoffs at this point than we have been yet since coming down.

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ChaddesdenRam

ChaddesdenRam

Posted
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I keep saying this in the championship a playoff push or better is done after Christmas.

We always bottle it after the festive period. If you are around 10 points off 6th place come january the 31st you have a chance. Look at Reading with their late charge.

This doesn't mean to say i think the games during the christmas period arent important.

But after christmas that is when we will see the true strength of the squad and whether other teams will find us out (Jamie Ward will be pivotal in giving us that spark when things are down).

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Derbiean

Derbiean

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well i think your wrong bries vages

were has your fatih gone

keep the faith we shall come good mark my words.

Not sure Bris ever had it to begin with 'http://www.dcfcfans.co.uk/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/tongue' class='bbc_emoticon' alt=':P' />

Keep the home form going and sort out the away form we'll have a good chance 'http://www.dcfcfans.co.uk/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/biggrin' class='bbc_emoticon' alt=':D' />

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B4ev6is

B4ev6is

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hey guys i am looking foward to hull on friday we have a good chance to make the play offs, but i do think we can at the end of the season with one game to go we shall be right up there maybe on the verge winning champership title, but that to happen nigal clough needs some money to spend but i think we should go for it now.

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YoungUttoxRam

YoungUttoxRam

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hey guys i am looking foward to hull on friday we have a good chance to make the play offs, but i do think we can at the end of the season with one game to go we shall be right up there maybe on the verge winning champership title, but that to happen nigal clough needs some money to spend but i think we should go for it now.

sadly my friend he's spent a little in the summer and for me that's all he will get this season unless Hughes is gone in January! Play offs is a hope for us though if we keep the home form ticking and improve away!
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G STAR RAM

G STAR RAM

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hey guys i am looking foward to hull on friday we have a good chance to make the play offs, but i do think we can at the end of the season with one game to go we shall be right up there maybe on the verge winning champership title, but that to happen nigal clough needs some money to spend but i think we should go for it now.

Why does he need money? Who does he need to replace?

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G STAR RAM

G STAR RAM

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well i think we need a play maker incase will huges goes and i think we need a new centre back, and a striker i would have liked charile austin but he is out of our price range but i think we someone like him through.

Well I imagine the club have already decided whether Hughes will go or not. We have 5 centre backs at least, if we need a new one then why don't we sell some to raise funds? Same goes for forwards.

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G STAR RAM

G STAR RAM

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because we could need that cover i just feel we need that certin play or players to take us to that next level, but i feel the board could give him 3 to 5m to play with in january they have to back him now were so close.

Well if we are so close why do we need to change anything?

And what makes you think that 3 to 5 million would make any difference? Leicester spent £5million on Matt Mills

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ramsbottom

ramsbottom

Posted
Posted

Well, from all the nonsense of players by average ratings I've come up with a way of estimating our chances of making a certain finish this year. I used the averaged Championship table from 1997-2012 that I made a while back as a way of determining what positions corresponded to what points per game. Long story short, I came up with a rough estimate of our chances of various positions from where we are currently. Here are the results in terms of likelihood of reaching each selected position or better:

Chance of finish by position or better:

1st: 0.03% (3999-1)

2nd: 2% (139-3)

6th: 33% (2-1)

10th: 67% (1-2)

12th: 87% (3-20)

21st: 99.97% (1-3332)

23rd: 99.998% (1-49999)

It gave the most likely position as 8th.

Seems a tad skewed... For the sake of comparison, running our positions at the same time for our seasons since we've been back in the Championship for their final positions gives (I'll also include the top 6 chance that I got for those seasons):

2011-12:

Actual Finish (12th): 34% (2-1)

Top 6: 3% (37-1)

Most Likely: 14th

2010-11:

Actual Finish (19th): 97% (1-30)

Top 6: 10% (46-5)

Most Likely: 12th

2009-10:

Actual Finish (14th): 19% (17-4)

Top 6: 0.2% (1103-2)

Most Likely: 18th

2008-09:

Actual Finish (18th): 78% (5-18)

Top 6: 0.1% (3541-5)

Most Likely: 16th

Not too bad I guess... Especially considering it's made on an approximated league table and some assumptions that could keep a good debate going on here for a while.

Still, if nothing else, we are closer to the playoffs at this point than we have been yet since coming down.

Albert, I'm not having a go here because I find your graphs and stats very interesting but can you change your pic to one of Professor Frink from The Simpsons??? It would suit you so much better 'http://www.dcfcfans.co.uk/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/biggrin' class='bbc_emoticon' alt=':D' />

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