erathirea

3-0 Lawrence

I'm sure someone else has probably said this, at some point. I am, in no way, defending Mel's record, but:

1. He's certainly tried.

2. He's not managed to us promoted.

3. He is a fan.

4. He is, by all accounts, ill.

5. He could have put us in administration a month ago. If he had... immediate fire sale.

So... is it possible that, whilst there are certainly many arguments to the contrary (and they are very much fair), that he has actually picked pretty much the *best* time to send us into admin?

Yes, we have minus 12. But- we have a chance of survival.

Yes, we could lose our best players in January for pittance... but we *could* have been sold by then and not have it *quite* so bad.

Yes, we could get relegated.... but maybe we would've done anyway. He could have put us in administration 4 months ago and we'd have definitely been relegated.

If his illness is as bad as reported, then whilst he should certainly be held to task for some aspects of his reign, should he be given *some* benefit of the doubt?

1-1 Mr T Lawrence

Probably with the inevitable heat death of the Universe.

Oh - you meant the situation at Derby?

 

Probably around 7.5 billion years time when the sun absorbs the earth.

Wilson

Not Harry, just the ball from Castaway.

I love a good thread like this

Ok. I'm going to go on the assumption that I want to play some kind of 4-3-3, and aim for 2 players in most positions.

Current Squad (contracted beyond June):

GK (3)- Marshall, Roos, Ravas.

LB (2)- Buchanan, Forsyth

RB (2)- Byrne

CB (4)- 

CM (6) (lumping together DM, CM and AM) - Bielik, Bird, Shinnie, Knight, Sibley

LW (2) - Lawrence

RW (2) - Jozwiak, Ibe

CF (3 - so we have options)- Kazim-Richards. 

 

From that lot, I would have no problem with Marshall, Byrne, Buchanan (yes, not his best season, but he's the future), 2-3 of those midfielders, Lawrence and Jozwiak being in our "normal" starting 11 next season.

I think Forsyth's time has come to an end, and I think it's time to be shot of Roos. With Ibe I'd be offering him termination if he's not going to get fit, but let's be optimistic and say we'll keep him around. Other than that, I figure we keep everyone because otherwise we'll have no players left.

Of our "out of contract" players, I'd offer Wisdom and Waghorn an extension. Wisdom because I think he can do a job and cover across the back, and Waghorn as, although he's had a bad season, he's a proven Championship level striker, clearly cares about the club, and it would also help with P&L if we keep him for another season. He's also, on his day, still a good player.

From the youth, and admittedly I don't see a lot of them, so maybe I'm wide of the mark here, but I'd promote Ebosele (cover for Byrne), Jordan Brown or Ethan Wassall (cover at CB - depending on who is more ready), Louie Watson, Bobby Duncan (or if we can't get him fit, Stretton) as cheap options for squad players. Also promote whichever keeper is most ready - let's say Yates. With those additions and subtractions... (bolding players that I'd be happy to have in my first XI (when everyone's fit)

GK (3)- Marshall, Ravas, Yates.

LB (2)- Buchanan

RB (2)- Byrne, Ebosele

CB (4)- Wisdom, Brown

CM (6) (lumping together DM, CM and AM) - Bielik, Bird, Shinnie, Knight, Sibley, Watson (sorry Shinnie, but when Bielik's fit, I reckon Bird is the better partner)

LW (2) - Lawrence

RW (2) - Jozwiak, Ibe

CF (3 - so we have options)- Kazim-Richards, Waghorn, Duncan. 

 

So to make a squad that I want, I need:

LB, CBx2, maybe another CM as an option, 2 wingers, and probably another CF.

It already seems that we'll get Mengi back on loan next season, though I would have to admit I'm not sure how highly I rate him from what I've seen so far... so I'm not going to take that into consideration. Would be happy to have one of the wingers and the "extra" CM as loans, but don't want to focus too much on loans.

CB 

Kyle Bartley (WBA) - free - wages might be a little high, but I think we could get him - new captain, also, by the way.

Reece Burke (Hull) - free - has played regularly for a promoted L1 Hull side- only 24 - stick him next to Bartley for a couple of seasons and we could have a lynchpin for the next 10 years)

LB

Joe Benett (Cardiff) - free - solid enough LB at Championship level, his experience would help Buchanan - questionable whether he'd come to us for non-guaranteed football, admittedly, but at 31 still has 2-3 years left in him and if Cardiff release him he'd probably come here. 

Wingers

Sullay Kaikai (Blackpool) - free - had a decent season in L1, with 15 goal contributions in 33 games. At 25, probably the right age to make the step up and, as with many of these potential options... out of contract in June.

CF

I might try and go for Jerry Yates at Blackpool- everyone talks about Clarke-Harris, and rightfully so, but he's scored a third of Blackpool's goals this season and, at 24, if they don't come up, Championship clubs may come knocking - might get him for around a million, which might not be doable, but still, have to have some optimism.

 

Add some loans to the mix for a bit of depth in CM and up front....

I'd try and get Roberts back - think he'd be a good option to have.

I'd also like to bring Delap back from City

And finally, bit of a gamble, but Ben Woodburn from Liverpool- only got 1 year left on his contract there so could be one of those "with a view to a permanent"... we did alright with our last Liverpool loanee...

 

GK (3)- Marshall, Ravas, Yates.

LB (2)- Buchanan, Bennett

RB (2)- Byrne, Ebosele

CB (4)- Bartley, Burke, Wisdom, Brown

CM (6) (lumping together DM, CM and AM) - Bielik, Bird, Sibley, Shinnie, Knight, Watson, Woodburn (sorry Shinnie, but when Bielik's fit, I reckon Bird is the better partner)

LW (2) - Lawrence, Kaikai

RW (2) - Jozwiak, Roberts, Ibe

CF (3 - so we have options)- Yates, Delap, Kazim-Richards, Waghorn, Duncan. 

 

I reckon with a better manager, and only about £1m in fees, that's a good team in this league.

Rotherham to win on Saturday, Derby to sneak a draw, Wednesday to draw. Rotherham lose to Luton on Tuesday.

 

Derby draw with Wednesday, Cardiff beat Rotherham. Derby stay up by 3 points from Rotherham

 

Rooney to come out and say he's glad he managed to get us past the safety mark of 42 points. Someone will then point out that's for the Premier League, and he'll look confused.

1 hour ago, CBRammette said:

And without Cardiff in particular our goal diff wouldnt be like an extra point to Rotherham

If we'd conceded 6 fewer against Rotherham things would be looking a *whole* lot nicer...

15 hours ago, ariotofmyown said:

Could you do a similar analysis, but the other way ie assuming we get zero points! How many points do we need to 'probably' be safe?

...

no.

 

Though the inference would be 8 points - wins against Brum and Wednesday, points against Rovers and Preston - if we went down with those results I'd eat everyone's hats.

 

In fact, realistically, 5 points from Rovers, Preston and Brum would be enough.

Not posted much in a while, but I do love some good stats.

Systematic approach.

Our maximum possible points is 58. So currently, Norwich, Watford, Swansea, Brentford, Bournemouth, Barnsley, Reading, Cardiff are "safe". Our worst case scenario is therefore them all to lose ALL their remaining games (except when playing each other, because those results don't matter for the purpose of this).

If you do that, then that pushes some more teams about 58 points. Millwall, QPR, and Luton, to be exact. So, then we assume they lose ALL of their remaining games (apart from the ones where they beat the current top 8).

Now 3 more teams are "safe" - Middlesbrough, Bristol City and Stoke. So repeat the process...

(remember, this is *literally* the worst case scenario for Derby - teams below 58 points are picking up points against teams above 58 points only) 

Once you repeat the process, no more teams *automatically* go above Derby.

So now we look for other "worst case scenarios". 

If you put the results in as I've described, the bottom of the championship looks like this:

15 Derby County 46 58

16 Rotherham United 43 54 (max theoretically 63)

17 Preston North End 44  54 (max theoretically 60)

18 Nottingham Forest 42 52 (max theoretically 64)

19 Coventry City 43 51 (max theoretically 60)

20 Huddersfield Town 43 50 (max theoretically 59)

21 Birmingham City 43 48 (max theoretically 57)

22 Wycombe Wanderers 46 48 (max 48)

23 Blackburn Rovers 42 47 (max theoretically 59)

24 Sheffield Wednesday 44 41 (max theoretically 47)

So there's 3 teams that, in this situation, we *guarantee* finish below us   (because we beat Birmingham).

 

I wanted to take it a step further, though. It's almost impossible in this scenario for Wednesday to catch us - even if we lose *to* them, we'd need to lose at least 2 other games). 

So our worst case scenario therefore should assume they have gone. So if they lose their other 2 games, that benefits other teams in the bottom few. Wycombe have also gone, despite wins against some good teams.

 

We already know Derby are safe if they win all their remaining games. Let's put Birmingham to one side, and talk about 2 other teams- Huddersfield and Birmingham. For them to finish above us in this scenario, they BOTH need to win *all* their remaining games. They *can't*, because they have to play each other.

Coventry would need at least 7 points, but they have to play Huddersfield too. In fact, there is no combination of results that leaves many of these teams ahead of us - Preston need 4 points from 2 games, but need to take points off Coventry to do it..

 

So let's adjust our view - what if we lose the worst possible game- to Birmingham?

This scenario immediately makes things more dicey, and puts Forest safe (55 points in this playthrough). So they lose their other 3 games, putting Preston safe in the process, who subsequently lose their other remaining game. Bottom of the table now looks like this:

17 Derby County 46 55

18 Rotherham United 43 54

19 Coventry City 44 54

20 Birmingham City 44 54

21 Huddersfield Town 44 53

22 Blackburn Rovers 43 50

With 6 games to decide it:

Rotherham v Coventry, Rotherham v Birmingham, Blackburn v Hudd, Hudd v Coventry, Rotherham v Blackburn, Blackburn v Birmingham.

Rotherham v Coventry v Huddersfield v Blackburn v Birmingham v Rotherham again, allows all 5 of those to win a game, with Blackburn having a spare game against Rotherham to pick up the win they need. - very contrived, but possible (any draw, by the way, guarantees at least one team to finish level on points with us.

 

SO- Don't Lose to Birmingham!

But what if we draw with BIrmingham?

In this scenario, Birmingham need 7 points to draw level with us - given their inferior GD (and that they aren't making it up by thrashing us), they realistically need 3 wins, against Rotherham, Blackburn and Forest. Blackburn then need to win their last 2 games to draw level with us, against Rotherham and Huddersfield. 

This combination of results would put Blackburn level with us, Birmingham ahead of us... but this leaves Rotherham needing 1 win from 1 and Huddersfield winning 2 from 2... meaning Coventry lose 2 of theirs and they can then NOT catch us.

 

SO- Drawing with Birmingham means we're safe.

 

Final scenario - what if we beat Birmingham, but lose to Blackburn (losing to Blackburn being *slightly* worse than losing to Preston.

This immediately makes Forest and Preston safe (as discussed previously).

17 Derby County 46 55

18 Rotherham United 43 54

19 Coventry City 44 54

20 Blackburn Rovers 43 53

21 Huddersfield Town 44 53

22 Birmingham City 44 51

Birmingham need 4 points from 2 games to draw level. Let's start by going with 2 wins, against  Blackburn and Rotherham. 

All 4 remaining teams need a win, which is, unfortunately, possible, as they are playing each other in such a combination that a round robin of wins is possible, albeit convoluted.

 

So, in summary. If we win all remaining games, we're safe. If we win 4 and draw with Brum, we're safe. If we do anything else, we're not mathematically safe.