Ken Tram

Barnsley have won 2 games so far this season, Peterboro have won 5 and that makes a total of 7 wins between them. Derby have won 9 and Reading have won 8, both clubs have been docked points and still look in a better position than Barnsley and Peterboro. I can not see them suddenly having a burst of good form. I'm writing them off and they will take up 2 relegation spots. Reading have'nt won a League match since November and have lost 6 on the bounce. Yes they could be due a win and their easiest matches on paper are this month, but March is Millwall, Forest, Bournemouth and Blackburn for them.
The Rams must close the gap either this month or in March, then the pressure will be on Reading. I expect Barnsley to be officially relegated by the start of April and possibly Peterboro mid-April, leaving one spot left to fill. Don't right off a team that could freefall and join the relegation battle, could be Birmingham, Hull or Cardiff.

Tin pot trophy cabinet ?

Both of those are down. I think by matchday 36 they will both be bottom two and adrift, requiring to overhaul 2 or 3 sides to get out of it. By that stage the towel will be thrown in.
The next month is crucial for our own chances. I look at Reading’s next six fixtures against Coventry, Posh, Preston, Brum, Blackpool and Millwall and if the shoe was on the other foot, I’d be targeting 10 points at the very least from that lot.
I don’t think Derby can afford to be more than 7 pts adrift with 10 games to go to stand a chance.

Barnsley - 0.5 ppg so far this season
Peterborough - 0.7 ppg so far
Reading - 1.58 ppg over the first 12 games. Since then, they've dropped to 0.53
 
All 3 sides need a massive turn around in form to stop us!

Restricted to the 4 at the moment but can extend if another team gets dragged down.

The more doable it is, the more nervous I am getting.

The more doable it is, the more nervous I am getting.

The more doable it is, the more nervous I am getting.

The PAYE account of Derby will be managed monthly via HMRC,  so their is digital involvement, problem being that it's not managed by a human as they've got rid of 50,000 in the civil service over 10 years.  Back in the old days a human in Derby, working at Derby tax office would have had this debt on the go at all times .  Now the human and that office is gone. 

I was about to say this last week has gone to show everyone that all the claims by the EFL/Boro/Wycombe to say they aren’t holding up the process is being shown up by none of then responding to Morris’ statement. They’ve only done some muddying of the water with some snippets to Alan Nixon.

It has always been Boros strongest weapon to do nothing. That is what they will continue to do. They are neither interested in Court or arbitration as actual evidence would be required in both. They simply want an out of court settlement in other words an offer of cash to move assure so that we can progress. Extortion. 

And this is going to be the main challenge for the players. Michael Dawson hit the nail on the head, once Derby get into the position where they’re out the bottom 3 then the pressure comes on, we’ve not had any pressure all season. That’s where Rooney will need to come into his own especially with such a young team.
But I think the band of brothers mentality backed by the fans will see us through. That combined with with class and leadership of Bielik Lawrence and Curtis….and of course Rooney

Yep, keeping it simple. 
 
PPG at this point over the season won’t change too much, but a burst of results can have a sharp impact.  although as the season goes on the impact on season PPG diminishes. 
for example our season PPG will put us on 28 points, but the last 6 games will put us on 39. That’s quite a difference. And Readings is virtually the opposite. 

I use an average of season so far and the last 6 games. 
 

Reading can’t keep losing like they are. Cardiff where right in the mire and have won 4 on the bounce to pull away. 
The bookies have Peterborough surviving though I don’t see that. 
Reading have not responded well to their points deduction and I am hoping that the defeatist attitude has set in there in the same way it did in 2008 for us.
But they are the team with the squad to go on an run of good results and put some real pressure on us.
I think we could be ahead of them by the end of the month but then the hunter becomes the hunted so we’ll see how we cope with that switch 
If we can keep key players fit then we have a chance now.

I suspect the mental bit has completely switched.
When we were on minus points, it's was all about Rooney keeping the team focused and motivated to just keep going. And the other teams had rather written us off as 1 of the 3 going down, i.e. teamtalk is lets not be one of the other two.
Now though, with Cardiff coming into form it's looking very much like 3 from 4. And Derby are right back in the mix. 
So Wayne just needs to keep the team doing exactly what it has been doing, and it's the other managers that need something special, because they know Derby's form is so much better than theirs.



Barnsley - won 2 games all season - last win 3rd Nov (against the rams!)
Peterborough - won 5 games, but 4 of those were in Oct or earlier
Reading - lost 7 out of the last 8
And if Cardiff are indeed safe - how hard will they try in those 2 games they've got with us
It's also interesting to re-forecast those final positions based on the form table of the last 12 games. My Maths make it Cardiff 56; Derby 42; Reading 30.5; Peterborough 27.5; Barnsley 26.

Of course they probably won't be as bad as that, but for the last 25% of the season they have been. and in reality they don't need to be, we just need to get our noses in front and I suspect, their motivation will go. Ironically I think Wayne's then got a problem stopping our players thinking that it's all over.
 

I’m supremely confident we’ll make it now. The only slight question mark I have now is whether or not fatigue will be a factor. We’ve got a tiny threadbare squad that have worked incredibly hard. Hopefully we can keep it going. 
teams down here are down here for a reason. Because they’re crap. Or because they’ve had a massive points deduction. We are the latter. Everyone else is crap. 
Normally we’re competing for the play offs at this point if a season, where you’re wondering where competitors will be dropping points. They’re up there for a reason, they don’t drop many points. But down where we are, these teams might not pick up another 10 points all season. We only got 7 from this stage last season.
me en if they pick up form a little big with January improvements, they’re not suddenly going to become world beaters. Games in hand don’t mean anything down here, teams are far more likely to loose them, so they can’t be counted as 3pts in the bag.
we’re easily good enough to make up the required 4pts. I honestly think we’ll clear reading by a distance, it won’t be last day, it won’t even be close. 
And I really hope we overtake them by 6pts. It would be nice if we did this on our own terms, and it wasn’t their points deduction that saved us (not that I would care that much, as long as we’re saved). 

We just have to keep carrying on trying to pick up points where we can - our threadbare squad and dubious refereeing decisions are our biggest threat as well as other teams deciding to improve - it’s always worth remembering that one side seems to fall like a stone in this league and Hull look more than capable of doing that.
How do we score the goals we need - Davies with 4 Forsyth with 2 have proved to be very important goal-scorers this season and if we can find a few more from some others it will help a lot - maybe Bird and Jozwiak/Stearman with a few will help a lot 

Wonder if Reading can afford to sack him as they are under embargo?

Wouldn't have thought so.
Reading Football Club can confirm that we have accepted a penalty of a six point deduction as a result of exceeding the EFL’s Profit and Sustainability limits.
https://www.readingfc.co.uk/news/2021/november/17/club-statement---efl-confirm-points-deduction-penalty-/

The way the table looks right now it seems as though it's 3 from 4 to go down, with everyone above Reading pretty much safe. Is there any chance they might appeal their own points deduction?
While we've been playing so well, I can't believe the other three teams will continue to perform this badly for much longer. And there'll be a new kind of pressure for us if we can get to the top of this mini league within a league. It's also got to be likely Paunovic will be sacked at Reading and they'll become much more competitive. 
Reckon at least 45 points. I also think we can do that if Davies, Bielik and Lawrence stay fit.
 

Replied to a tweet earlier asking where the points will be picked from so I had a go at it.
Couple of things first, this assumes we keep all key players fit and I should mention I have personally funded the Paddy Power Christmas party with my failed accas.
Don't worry, this isn't one of those daft predict a win in every game. I believe it's fairly realistic.
Will it be enough to stay up? No idea, that depends on the other teams around us. If they continue on the form they are, we should do it with ease, but you have to expect that at least one will go on a mini run at some point.

37-44 - 44 was enough last year and reading are already 7 points off that tracking.

I assume if we get to the final couple of games and are a couple of points ahead or behind Reading the EFL will decide they were harshly treated having the 6 point deduction instead of the proposed 9 and will reduce it further to 3.  Stake my ass on it. 

I think 7 wins will see us climb out the bottom 3. Possible winning home matches against Peterboro, Millwall, Barnsley, Coventry, Preston, Bristol and Cardiff. Could drop points against one of them 7 matches so Im looking at away games where we might sneak a win, Cardiff, Swansea, QPR or Blackpool. Then the draws could come from a number of games, like Middlesboro (a), Luton (a), Bournemouth (a) or Fulham at home.  
So 7 wins and 3 or 4 draws would give us 42 or 43 points which would be enough. We might need less if Peterboro and Reading keep up their current form until the end of the season. Injuries will also play their part, so lets hope we keep that down to a minimum and we get Kazim back. His experience will be required in some games. Also want to see our two Polish internationals playing together a few times before the season ends.