CBX1985

Just now, Steve How Hard? said:

All vultures picking at the bones.

Yes, but vultures clear the road.  We need a clear road, and not a carcass blocking it.

4 minutes ago, TheresOnlyWanChope said:

Probably have to wait a year for a Phoenix club. Really struggling to see a way out of this now. I think Mel Morris has killed DCFC. Hope I’m wrong but probably in the balance. Gutted about this now

This will get worse before it get's better.  Negotiations like this need to go to the wire.  People like Ashley know what they are doing, and everyone thinks they can get a better price until it is manifest they cannot.  He is waiting to give people two choices: get paid something or get paid nothing.  

The sooner we reach that point the better, as it will be hard - but it is the one shot at sustainable survival we have.  

2 minutes ago, eccles the ram said:

If we do survive (please God) I can live with a minus 15 points deduction.  Rooney HAS to stay, so whoever is our owner they need to tie him down for at least two more years. With his contacts we have a better chance of fielding a team which could compete in Division 1 . You never know we could reach the playoffs!!! No I haven't been at the falling down water - ok - sorry that's a 'Kirschism '- I have had one or two! 

We all love Rooney, but perhaps if someone wants to pay him to go then maybe, again, we need to consider.  He is very expensive, and a top team would pay good compensation for him.    

He's only got a year left on his contract, and well, he's going to get a top job at that point anyway.  Slashing manager costs in half would allow us to bring two or three good players in.  Next season, if it comes, is about weathering the storm far more than last.    

This was clearly inevitable and thank goodness he has gone, as we need a realistic buyer.  I would have loved him to have been real, but it was patently obvious from the middle of last week that he was not - and we need to move forward, so happy we have got over a big hurdle.  

Everything is now back on the table, which is positive.  As I said yesterday, we need a proper crunch point to force minds.  We cannot delay this anymore and should have confronted this in January; we need to face down our problems and come to a solution.  Hard choices are going to be necessary - and fifteen points is a very very small price to pay.  

Promotional pushes and stuff like that are irrelevant - even relegation again might be a necessary evil  We need to survive as a club, and L1 L2 etc don't really matter.  In three years we can worry about those things.  Today, we are contending with the sharks so our other instincts need to go on hold until we are safe and sound.  

6 minutes ago, B4ev6is said:

If he does not they wont even look at him so I think he will have little choice but for Q I think efl will say to them ashley has every right to say I want to pay you less.

I keep making the point that they will. They always do in every industry, in every pace, everywhere.

Let me put it another way.  You put a million to one bet on.  The bookie goes bust., and can't pay you a sausage  I offer you £10,000 for your betting slip that will never pay up. Do you take it? 

4 minutes ago, B4ev6is said:

I think you will find ashley will be force to pay 25p in the or 35p in the pound.

Doubt it.  He will accept points deduction, and decimate creditors (except Q and HMRC).

All about pushing to the wire.  The club has everything to lose, but so do the creditors.  MA has nothing to lose, so him wanting us a little works in our favour from a negotiating position - he can be nonchalant, whilst they will want paying.

5 minutes ago, kevinhectoring said:

Agree when you say it’s still more than possible CK will sort out whatever the weird banking issue is. Hope he does 
 

But if CK falls away and if there are no other generous bidders,  don’t you think Ashley will hit q with a ball that is so low it’s subterranean 

Indeed.  And if there is nothing else going higher, and the axe is going to fall, they will accept - as you have the option of something you would otherwise not have had or a total loss.  Bury was different in that too few people cared to even low ball.  The point you need to hit is high enough that it is substantial but low enough to be derisory.  

There is not a dichotomy of deal  or no deal.  Everything can move, but if CK competes it won't.  If he does not, everything - and I mean everything - is on the table.  MA is only ever going to be a last resort, as he will be brutal - take it or leave it, 10p if he's generous in the pound paid immediately or nothing.

17 minutes ago, Gaspode said:

You are Rick Parry and I claim my £5.....

How did you guess? ? Joke.

16 minutes ago, uttoxram75 said:

The EFL made the unprofessional and cowardly decision to pander to Gibson so making it even harder for any buyer. The EFL's own rules did not demand they do this, it was pure chickenshit from Parry.

The EFL are a disgrace and unfit to conduct busines and will never be forgiven in Derby.

 

Truth is, people are annoyed with everyone.  Q, MM, EFL.  Passion does this.  But we are where we are, and unless you correct me, we don't know the inside track.  I don't agree with the narrative that people are out to get us.  But people will always act in their own interests.

I care less about fault at this stage and more about solutions. Getting angry with boogieman is satisfying, but not entirely productive.   

35 minutes ago, B4ev6is said:

I would but my season ticket tommrow if I could.

Fine, but most could not justify expense with no guarantee of any games.  You would never get your money back in liquidation.  

13 minutes ago, uttoxram75 said:

We've been screwed by the EFL since the t***** from Teeside threatened them. That's why a takeover didn't happen six months ago when we still had a bit of a squad and an outside chance of stopping up.

I see EFL as a bit of a scapegoat.  I think they're an easy target, but in tough position - and do have to make difficuly choices.

We know Q had someone lined up a PB.  We don't know who... Could have been CK.  

1 minute ago, PistoldPete said:

If DCFC were not sustainable, Quantuma would have a legal  duty to liquidate us . They haven't and they won't. EFL issuing threats introduces unnecessary stress. I was perfectly relaxed about Kirchner either producing the money or someone else stepping up if he didn't. Until the EFL statement today which sent my blood pressure through the roof. 
 

We need that stress - it is grotesque and it is why I'm wasting my Sunday on this site: I'm s -word scared. But it is a pill we need to swallow now and should have swallowed in January/February.  

We are patently not viable for long.  If CK is not the real deal, which is clearly a strong possibility, we need to be sustainable for the season.  We cannot keep getting propped up by artificial debt, as this makes things worse.  We can't plan this way; Season Ticket sales are going to collapse.   This season I don't care about performance, 15 point reduction; I'd take Lg2 today for guaranteed club survival at this point with no debt. 

We need to cut the debt mountain sizably.  By getting to a crunch, we have that opportunity.  It will come, unless CK is the real deal.   As I have said, someone needs to be screwed somewhere.

2 minutes ago, PistoldPete said:

 why does involving EFL in everything speed anything up I do not know) . It may also allow  EFL to deduct 15 points from us so yes that would be a bad thing.  

Getting to the point is the important thing.  if they are going to chuck us out, it concentrates minds.  We can play games like this for ages; to everyone's mental distress.  Mortality and aversion to loss makes you consider your position.  EFL play role in this instance. 

If DCFC is going to die, let's get on with it so we can work out what next.  I think it unlikely, but until we lance the debt boil and have sustainable funding, this will not go away, it will only get worse.

3 minutes ago, atherstoneram said:

Indeed,creditors will not be bothered whether the club survives or not. They make take the view they have been offered 35% so a new bidder pays that or no deal.

But then they get nothing.  35% or nothing is not a reasonable strategy for someone with multi-million investments.  

HMRC is a difficult one.  They I grant you are unique. They have to get value for taxpayers.

An offer can be anything you like.  HMRC 100%, everyone else 7%.

Once you stop caring about a fifteen points reduction, it makes settlement easier in many ways.  Creditors as a mass will agree getting paid.  The less you want to offer, the later you have to leave it.  

16 minutes ago, atherstoneram said:

It is not a discussion it's a fact,if a bidder doesn't offer enough to raise the club out of administration it doesn't happen

With respect, you conflate two separate issues.  One factual; one not.

If both parties fail to agree, you are correct it is factual they do not leave administration.  The price to be paid is in some way set: this is the thing to be needs to be discussed, and is not.

Let's call the final day before liquidation D-Day.  On D-Day +1 you get nothing.  Six months to D-Day, you might only accept 60p in the pound as someone might come along with an amazing bid.  Six weeks pre D-Day you might accept 35p.  D-Day morning you might accept 10p.  By that evening, you will accept pennies in the pound as you will get nothing if you don't - and that moment is moments away.

If a creditor is owed £1m, they might get £100,000 from Ashley.  They get nothing in liquidation.  On the last day they accept.  Before that point they procrastinate as they might get more.  It's like that weird indoor cycling: everything always comes down to the last lap, as everyone holds out until the end for better. 

Without a knight in shining armour, the creditors get nothing or something.    But, as I say, there needs to be a point of no return to focus minds.  It is literally day one 101 of negotiation school.  

5 minutes ago, atherstoneram said:

MA has got to offer enough to bring the club out of administration and also come to an agreement which is acceptable to the creditors without either of those MA is a none runner.

Indeed that is a discussion.  it is not a dichotomy - CK or nothing.

The amount offered by CK may be illusionary.  If it is, there was no real deal.  The negotiation has to find an acceptable amount for both sides. We start again.

MA has a infinitely stronger negotiating position.  Creditors don't have a world of options in a business that has no assets to sell.

2 minutes ago, Topram said:

It’s definitely getting towards the 11th hour now…. 

It's what we need.  There needs to be a point creditors are put in the position of something small guaranteed today, or almost certainly not a penny tomorrow. 

No one will buy a season ticket, so there will be no revenue.  Ashley deal, if it happens will begin and end in a day.  The last day.  

8 minutes ago, Barney1991 said:

Says that Ashley can’t lowball kirchner and has to meet his bid to exit administration after creditors agreed to this sum 

Indeed - 100% correct.  if CK pays, he can't because he isn't going to want to match the price.  If CK doesn't pay, then the offer was actually zero so MA will offer more than that.

1 minute ago, curb said:

The liquidator, doesn’t hold the badge and name, the league do, they would sell it to the highest bidder (Ashley?).

The value is still the customer base, a rebuilt club heading back up the leagues would pick up the fans left behind. Rangers have done it in recent times, they’ve kept the badge, history and support. The stadium is available and only useful to an owner if there is a football club to play in it. We would have a case for playing high up in the National League because of our facilities and support, a league in which there are already a number of professional clubs, Notts County, Chesterfield etc.

The league holds the player’s registrations, the players we have under contract would be instantly snapped up by clubs looking for a bargain. 
 

 

Players.  They will act in their own interests.  A fire sale doesn't work for them either.  They want the higher salary, and a free transfer release is what will get them there. They have no compulsion to accept any offer, and club and agent will want them to be released free.     

We absolutely have such a case; the issue is how you get from a to b without everyone suing. This has been Bury's problem - where do you start?  Having a case and making it reality are very different.  We just need to miss one season, and then what? Two? Five?  Might be best just to start up and begin the journey. 

Rangers was a different case, due to the pro/am divide in Scottish football (at the time - third division had no relegation), so Rangers went from Prem to third division.  That does not exist in England (nor in Scotland anymore).  it is a very long way down.  Might have dispensation, might not - who knows?

 Who would pick up the badge?  See above.  Without guarantee,  someone very small scale probably.  Forget current runners and riders.  For a very very low price.  I can actually see a community club forming (and see the benefit), with potentially fans as shareholders but with limits.  Thus, cannot be bought out and could have constraints.   The last thing any of us want if we have ten years of FA Cup extra preliminary round football to look forward to is the risk of financial problems at the end of the rainbow.  Spend what comes in. And only what comes in.  

29 minutes ago, curb said:

Welcome to the forum.

There is one thing wrong with your post.

The EFL can sell the badge and name to someone after liquidation. They would hold the players registrations, which they will sell to other clubs on liquidation to pay off football debts.

This I believe is Ashley’s end game, to de-rail the administration process and pick up the pieces post liquidation.

The blame will all be on the administrators (he’s already started the propaganda process), and he’ll bypass having to pay HMRC and creditors anything. He’ll probably get tha stadium cheaper too, as no football team makes the stadium worthless.

Thank you.

The liquidator can sell the badge, but to whom.  Lg2 yes it will sell; div 14, no it won't.  There is no value in the name if not a football club in a recognised professional league.

I'm not a lawyer, so will not contend against the holding player argument - it is in black and white.  It doesn't sound very enforceable in the real world, however. 

Who would pay the ongoing salaries? The league?  Why would anyone bid, on expectation they'd be released after a matter of weeks?  The same situation with regards administration for the Club would move to the players.  Agents would recommend players did nothing as they would likely get more salary by waiting a matter of weeks and having no transfer fee.  If they are being paid, delay.    

Employment law would also supercede.   All Bury players were released with two weeks notice.

32 minutes ago, I am Ram said:

Hi, welcome to the forum, in the financial investment world i see, are you currently on a bank holiday ?

No, today is a Sunday.  It is one of the two weekend days, alongside Saturday, which intersperses the five days of Bank Holiday we enjoy between Monday and Friday. ? 

10 minutes ago, CornwallRam said:

On liquidation, the players registrations are transferred to the EFL, who then sell them on to ensure that all footballing debts are repaid.

So, it is not quite true that they have zero value.

It's also possible that the administrators could decide to liquidate, sell the remaining players for whatever they can get, and liquidate afterwards. That way, the value would have been converted to cash and that cash would be an asset. 

I still think that our big problem is not actually the size of our debt, it's that most of it isn't to unsecured creditors, so administration has done very little to reduce the debt...that and the ground not being included. 

I was unaware of the registration point so thank you for that ?  I will look up the details later, as might be employment rights issues there - i.e. who is paying their wages on transfer of transfer of registration and they have a legal right to earn a living.  Bury players gave two weeks notice.

The decide to liquidate point sounds impractical.  The fact they are liquidating would mean the likelihood would be they could be obtained for free later.  Might get something from someone in a hurry, but other teams will be as brutal negotiating as Mike Ashley. 

26 minutes ago, Oldben said:

Cbx1985 I agree with yoir analysis in part.

However, some assets might appear worthless but investors see the future value.

Investors in bitcoin didn't see the tangible value of the asset but the intangible value, the future unrealised value of the asset.

When someone purchased a Banksy art work many years ago, that art work on face value had little value. Yet now that same art work can be worth a fortune.

Dcfc value is very little, as long as it remains in League one.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.goal.com/en-gb/amp/news/championship-play-off-final-how-much-premier-league/17nz5miq9ytix1wkm1w5q2kozd

"How much does the Championship play-off winner earn?

Winning the Championship play-off final and earning promotion to the Premier League is understood to be worth hundreds of millions of pounds, though it varies season by season.

In 2020, Deloitte suggested that victory in the play-off final could see an increase in revenue of between £135 million ($167m) to £265 million ($328m), depending on whether a promoted team can avoid immediate relegation.

Official figures for the 2020-21 season showed that broadcast revenue totalling more than £2.5 billion ($3bn) was distributed among the 20 clubs in the Premier League.

Of that, each club was guaranteed at least £31.4m ($38.9m) in equal share payments, £47.5m ($58.8m) in international TV and £5.9m ($7.3m) in central commercial payments: a base line of roughly £84.8 million ($105m) per team, regardless of position.

As well as that, clubs were given merit payments - ranging from £1.7m ($2.1m) for last-placed Sheffield United to £34.9m ($43.2m) for champions Manchester City - and 'facility fees' which depended upon the number of televised games they were involved in."

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/EFL_League_One_play-offs#:~:text=EFL League One.-,Prize,funded by the Premier League.

"The financial value of winning the EFL League One play-off is derived from the additional remuneration clubs receive in the Championship. As of 2018 clubs in the third tier receive around £1.4 million, comprising a "basic award" and a "solidarity" payment, the latter of which is funded by the Premier League.[25] In the second tier, the total funding rises to a total of around £7 million, a fivefold increase in revenue.[26][27] The winners of the final receive a trophy.[28][29]"

 

My point regards liquidation and the threat thereof. DCFC brand has considerable value as a football club; it has no value if it is not a football club (and has been liquidated).  Going to division 14, no one is going to pay for that brand in that league.

Players have no value if they can leave on liquidation. 

2 minutes ago, Brailsford Ram said:

Thanks for the explanation and while I respect your good intentions and your experience in the financial sector, what you have written has taught me little that is new in the administration process. But it does concern me that at this very late stage you are drawing attention to doubts about Kirchner , who has seemingly bankrolled the May payroll. Your reference to Bale and Messi is frankly ridiculous in the circumstances and uncalled for.

The situation regarding the late funds has been handled in such a way that too many fans have developed doubts about Kirchner that they didn’t all share seven days ago. We will all have formed definite and realistic opinions about him in the next few days when the money either arrives or it doesn’t. If the deal is completed this week his entry as the new owner will have been tainted in a way I am sure will disappoint him personally. Until then give the guy a break - we are still hoping for a good relationship with him, Gary Cook and Wayne Rooney.

This is not meant to be critical of you but is something I have to say as a supporter at this critical time for all of us.

So welcome to the forum.

 

 

 

 

Thank you for the welcome.  I don't take it as critical at all ?

I try not to deal in things I don't know.     I have no idea of who paid what to who etc.  Nor do you.  Reports in The Sun are not reliable - "my source has told me" does not make it true. Other reports contradict.  

My Bale/Messi comment is a rhetorical way of pointing out that CK feels a little too good to be true.  Not saying he is.  Would jump for joy if he isn't.   

Hello everyone.  Nice to meet you all.  Found this forum a week or so ago, and in the circumstances have been reading frequently.

I do believe there is, perhaps understandably, a mismatch between business reality and fans wanting to "save our club".  Some of the business people involved also care deeply about football, and some this club; but business comes first and their backers are not going to want to "donate" monies beyond the relative value of the proposition.  

I work in financial services and investment.  I have previously worked at a global accountancy firm, where I for a while sat next to a company administrator - no, not Q - so have some familiarity with how these processes work in general terms. 

My analysis: is DCFC has VERY large debts.  DCFC has virtually no tangible assets.  Those we do have are players (if very few!).  On liquidation, unlike with other firms in most normal industries, those assets can leave for free on liquidation - so valueless to a liquidator.  We have considerable brand value (30k matchday attendees), all those here etc etc.  That brand value dies on liquidation, if EFL does not allow re-entry at L2.  Unlike with most businesses, the name cannot simply be sold as a way to pay creditors.

There is an old maxim: if I owe the bank £10,000, I have a problem; If I owe the bank a £1billion, the bank has a problem. That applies here.  On liquidation, the creditors get nothing.  Think about it, the players have no value and we don't own the ground.  We are left with paying £100m or whatever it is from old replica kits from the Superstore.

Ashley knows this, too.  As do all the buyers.  The reality is someone needs to be screwed here.  Liquidation screws everyone, but the admins need to extract as much as they can.  And so along strides a wonderful American who will generously pay a nice amount to said creditors for a L1 club.  No points deduction.  Keep Rooney.  40 new players.  He might as well throw Bale in to the mix as well, and consider putting a bit in for Messi.  It feels - not saying it is - a little too good to be true.  He is offering to be the one financially screwed for the greater good of everyone else.  And on cue the money doesn't turn up... makes you wonder.

What, in my opinion, this club has needed since January is to have the real crunch liquidation point - the club will liquidate on x date without x monies.  At the moment, creditors are thinking "I can get a 'good' deal from some naive mug" and are not considering the real haircut they are going to need to take to get some monies back, maybe 5 or 10p in the pound.  Once a potential vulture owner decides to accept the points deduction, why offer the creditors any less than a completely derisory offer (you get them to their lowest point before they refuse on principle)?  The points deduction will be the same.

This is Ashley's strategy (and probably everyone else bar CK).  He is planning to screw the creditors.  But this only works if you are prepared to hold out to the very very very last minute; and you can act fast to prevent the reapers axe actually coming down. 

The idea he will take CK's terms like-for-like is for the birds.