How good is our squad?

[CongletonRam]

2 minutes ago, Ghost of Clough said:

In Warne's words, "If we don't get promoted, changes are needed"

The question in this scenario would be whether Clowes sticks with a manager who has "failed" for 2 seasons in a row and only make changes to the playing staff, or also change the management team

While results are the way in which we judge a manager, a certain amount of leeway should be offered to Warne IMO as if the last 20 years or so has proven one thing, the DCFC job is something of a poisoned chalice particularly with a new owner who has no experience whatsoever in owning a football club and a club that only a year ago was quite literally minutes away from disappearing from existence.

[May Contain Nuts]

2 hours ago, CongletonRam said:

Two or three seasons in Division One is not going to break the club. We have a good support base being a one club city, and while the advertising and sponsorship deals may not be quite as lucrative in the lower leagues, he will realise the importance of making the business of DCFC sustainable. Granted, that is easier the higher you make your way up the footballing pyramid, but a few seasons in the footballing wilderness might well just give the club the time it needs to sort itself out financially.

The cub's in the healthiest financial position it's been in since (possibly) 2006/7 once the League of Gentlemen took over from The 3 Amigos and set about clearing £52m debt. Maybe earlier.

Horrible as it was, Administration has allowed us a massive reset. We're not toally free from needing to pay for our past excesses (although clearing 75% of debts to unsecured creditors was rather helpful!), but we're still in a strong enough position to give the manager a very good budget for the league.

Our finances don't need sorting out, Clowes has already done that, and even if they did spending 3-4 years in league One would do nothing to help us. It's possible we may need/want additional investment but being in League One doesn't make that any easier to attain either.

All we'd see - without additional investment and if we're trying to be sustainable - would be declining wage budget year on year. God help you if you think our squad is laughably average now; I dread to think what level of ridicule your stat-lead analysis of our squad would have you coming out with 2-3 years down the line.

Clowes hasn't said he wants us to be established in the Championship within 5 years for nothing. Clock's ticking.

Edited October 14, 2023 by Kokosnuss

[Tamworthram]

6 minutes ago, Ghost of Clough said:

In Warne's words, "If we don't get promoted, changes are needed"

The question in this scenario would be whether Clowes sticks with a manager who has "failed" for 2 seasons in a row and only make changes to the playing staff, or also change the management team

It’s anyone’s guess as to what he meant by those comments or indeed if DC would want to change managers if we narrowly miss out again.

No one can deny that he’s failed to get us promoted (or even in the play offs) for two years running if we did end up 7th or below this season but, I can’t help but think that DC won’t necessarily count last season as a failure given the turmoil we were in at the start of the season, the restrictions we were under and the fact that it wasn’t PW’s squad. For all we know, promotion/play offs last season might have been considered as “ahead of schedule”. Maybe this season is the first season DC will really judge PW as a manager and, whilst finishing 7th or falling short in the play offs would probably be considered as technically failure, I’m not convinced it would be enough for PW to be shown the door. Mid table or below and still playing poor football might well be a different story.

[CongletonRam]

35 minutes ago, Kokosnuss said:

The cub's in the healthiest financial position it's been in since (possibly) 2006/7 once the League of Gentlemen took over from The 3 Amigos and set about clearing £52m debt. Maybe earlier.

Horrible as it was, Administration has allowed us a massive reset. We're not toally free from needing to pay for our past excesses (although clearing 75% of debts to unsecured creditors was rather helpful!), but we're still in a strong enough position to give the manager a very good budget for the league.

Our finances don't need sorting out, Clowes has already done that, and even if they did spending 3-4 years in league One would do nothing to help us. It's possible we may need/want additional investment but being in League One doesn't make that any easier to attain either.

All we'd see - without additional investment and if we're trying to be sustainable - would be declining wage budget year on year. God help you if you think our squad is laughably average now; I dread to think what level of ridicule your stat-lead analysis of our squad would have you coming out with 2-3 years down the line.

Clowes hasn't said he wants us to be established in the Championship within 5 years for nothing. Clock's ticking.

As a multiple business owner myself both overseas and here in the UK, I can say with some conviction and experience that Derby's finances are certainly not 100% sorted. The complete and utter mess that we were in does not get sorted out overnight. It takes years,

Clowes may well say that he wants us established in the Championship in 5 years time. That doesn't sound unreasonable and if we assume that we get out of League One either this season or next, that is feasible.

The absolute worst thing we can do now is to sack Warne. Aside from costing the club hundreds of thousands of pounds, it would likely mean a whole new set of players meaning we are again left with yet another set of players that we just cannot get rid of.

 

[May Contain Nuts]

4 hours ago, CongletonRam said:

Short term-ism almost destroyed this club. We must never let this happen again. We listen to the supporters calling for PW's head tantamount s to  pressing self destruct on the future of DCFC.

Quick question. Do you trust that Paul Warne has what it takes to not only get Derby promoted but also to keep us up in the Championship?

We can talk about short terminism, but if we spend 2-3 seasons backing a manager purely on the premise that he'll get us promoted, when there's no evidence that he can handle the step up to a higher division (quite the opposite) and (if) there's little sign of any progression in his coaching / management methods during those 2-3 years.... we'll likely end up back where we started. That's a mighty fine example of short terminism!

Of course the 'if' plays a big role there - Warne still has time to show that progression, in most people's eyes, at least.

[May Contain Nuts]

18 minutes ago, CongletonRam said:

As a multiple business owner myself both overseas and here in the UK, I can say with some conviction and experience that Derby's finances are certainly not 100% sorted. The complete and utter mess that we were in does not get sorted out overnight. It takes years,

Clowes may well say that he wants us established in the Championship in 5 years time. That doesn't sound unreasonable and if we assume that we get out of League One either this season or next, that is feasible.

The absolute worst thing we can do now is to sack Warne. Aside from costing the club hundreds of thousands of pounds, it would likely mean a whole new set of players meaning we are again left with yet another set of players that we just cannot get rid of.

 

I'm not sure anybody's going to buy your claim to be a multiple business owner overseas and in the UK if they've read through this whole thread, tbh.

Of course I know that Derby's finances aren't "100% sorted" (Who's are? Hence saying "We're not toally free from needing to pay for our past excesses") but by "Clowes has already sorted them"  I mean that he is in control of the situation, any outstanding issues will be budgeted for.

The most important parts of our rebuild are already in place. Clowes has done an excellent job.

The absolute worst thing we can do is carry on with a long term plan using short term solutions, one of which Warne appears to be. Note though I'm not advocating for his immediate removal - as said in the other post, he still has time to improve.

If he doesn't improve, he'll do more harm than good.

Edited October 14, 2023 by Kokosnuss

[CongletonRam]

11 minutes ago, Kokosnuss said:

Quick question. Do you trust that Paul Warne has what it takes to not only get Derby promoted but also to keep us up in the Championship?

We can talk about short terminism, but if we spend 2-3 seasons backing a manager purely on the premise that he'll get us promoted, when there's no evidence that he can handle the step up to a higher division (quite the opposite) and (if) there's little sign of any progression in his coaching / management methods during those 2-3 years.... we'll likely end up back where we started. That's a mighty fine example of short terminism!

Of course the 'if' plays a big role there - Warne still has time to show that progression, in most people's eyes, at least.

 

I don't know the answer to that question. I think with the squad he has assembled, there is no reason why we shouldn't be challenging, but there is no reason why this squad should be necessarily challenging for an automatic place. That is my issue. What is it about this squad that makes a certain section of our fanbase believe that we should be a lot higher than what we are?

The performances are disappointing, we can all see that. The results however, are not terrible and we are sitting in a position that means should we string a few back to back wins, we would put ourselves into a position that is challenging. We are close to being a decent team.

[May Contain Nuts]

3 minutes ago, CongletonRam said:

 

I don't know the answer to that question. I think with the squad he has assembled, there is no reason why we shouldn't be challenging, but there is no reason why this squad should be necessarily challenging for an automatic place. That is my issue. What is it about this squad that makes a certain section of our fanbase believe that we should be a lot higher than what we are?

The performances are disappointing, we can all see that. The results however, are not terrible and we are sitting in a position that means should we string a few back to back wins, we would put ourselves into a position that is challenging. We are close to being a decent team.

I'm not asking you about the squad, I'm asking you about the manager.

The squad will change as Warne sees fit. Do you see Warne as the right man to build and manage a squad to achieve stability in the Championship?

That's the question that has to be answered before we can really start to look at what is and isn't short-terminism, IMO.

Edited October 14, 2023 by Kokosnuss

[CongletonRam]

5 minutes ago, Kokosnuss said:

I'm not sure anybody's going to buy your claim to be a multiple business owner overseas and in the UK if they've read through this whole thread, tbh.

And nor they should, but I can assure you, I have moved back to the UK and now spend the majority of my time managing a couple of businesses in the Far East and am just about to start a new venture here in Cheshire.

[CongletonRam]

Just now, Kokosnuss said:

I'm not asking you about the squad, I'm asking you about the manager.

The squad will change as Warne sees fit. Do you see Warne as the right man to build and manage a squad to achieve stability in the Championship?

I don't think Warne has done anything that would make me think that he isn't the man. No manager is perfect, and his track record in getting teams promoted leads me to the opinion that he should be given his contract to try and change the fortunes of DCFC.

[May Contain Nuts]

9 minutes ago, CongletonRam said:

And nor they should, but I can assure you, I have moved back to the UK and now spend the majority of my time managing a couple of businesses in the Far East and am just about to start a new venture here in Cheshire.

Good for you, hope it all goes well. 🫰

(sincerely)

 

Edited October 14, 2023 by Kokosnuss

[CongletonRam]

Just now, Kokosnuss said:

Good for you, hope it all goes well. 🫰

 

Thank you. I appreciate that. It's so difficult to start a new business in the current climate where the government is doing less and less to help new startups.

[May Contain Nuts]

1 minute ago, CongletonRam said:

I don't think Warne has done anything that would make me think that he isn't the man. No manager is perfect, and his track record in getting teams promoted leads me to the opinion that he should be given his contract to try and change the fortunes of DCFC.

And that's where you, I (and a few others I suspect) really differ IMO.

His track record of getting Rotherham relegated and his (up to this point) apparent struggle to adapt to managing a club of Derby's size, and all expectations that go with it, does lead me to think that the outcome should we be promoted under him would only be the same as it was for Rotherham.

Medium/Long term thinking applied.

 

[Marriot Ram99]

On 13/10/2023 at 09:03, CongletonRam said:

Yes, I agree. Our squad does look OK when compared to our rivals.

It doesn't however look like a squad that has automatic promotion written all over it.

My point being that fans expectations should be tempered. Calling for PW's head when we are sitting where we are in the league is crazy.

Who put that squad together?

 

[BaianoPOTY98]

I am on the fence with Warne really, I don’t believe he should be sacked at this point, the league position is ok and he needs to be given more time with a squad close to full fitness. What is more worrying for me are the poor performances week in week out, aside from a couple of away games. The way most teams have come to Pride Park this season and totally dominated us to the point we look like the away side. There is no way our squad is that bad, to me it seems like we give the opposition too much respect, almost as if he’s still managing Rotherham.

[CongletonRam]

28 minutes ago, BaianoPOTY98 said:

I am on the fence with Warne really, I don’t believe he should be sacked at this point, the league position is ok and he needs to be given more time with a squad close to full fitness. What is more worrying for me are the poor performances week in week out, aside from a couple of away games. The way most teams have come to Pride Park this season and totally dominated us to the point we look like the away side. There is no way our squad is that bad, to me it seems like we give the opposition too much respect, almost as if he’s still managing Rotherham.

 

Yes, Fleetwood at home was a case in point. An even first half and we go in 1-0 and I can only think that PW asked the players to protect what we have and prevent the opposition from scoring with little or no notion about trying to put the game to bed.

My biggest issue with PW is his sterile, negative tactics. He seems to want to build a team that has 2 or 3 moments in a game and then recently berates his team if we fail to convert one of those few chances that we create.

[BaianoPOTY98]

1 hour ago, CongletonRam said:

 

Yes, Fleetwood at home was a case in point. An even first half and we go in 1-0 and I can only think that PW asked the players to protect what we have and prevent the opposition from scoring with little or no notion about trying to put the game to bed.

My biggest issue with PW is his sterile, negative tactics. He seems to want to build a team that has 2 or 3 moments in a game and then recently berates his team if we fail to convert one of those few chances that we create.

I think most people on here are singing from the same hymn sheet it’s just some show more leniency than others lol 🙈

[littleover ram]

3 hours ago, CongletonRam said:

The absolute worst thing we can do now is to sack Warne. Aside from costing the club hundreds of thousands of pounds

 

Quote

sunk-cost fallacy

noun

the phenomenon whereby a person is reluctant to abandon a strategy or course of action because they have invested heavily in it, even when it is clear that abandonment would be more beneficial.

 

[ram59]

For those saying that if we don't finish in the top 2, we have failed, we have to remember that we can't have much say in everyone else's results. Currently, the top 2 are both on course to smash the previous highest points totals in this league over the last 20 years and in the unlikely event they can keep this up, we won't be able to get near them. It is probably a measure of how poor, quite a number of teams are in this league, but it also means that a number of teams will be picking up quite a few points and will be all competing towards the top of the table.

[Oldben]

4 hours ago, Ghost of Clough said:

In Warne's words, "If we don't get promoted, changes are needed"

The question in this scenario would be whether Clowes sticks with a manager who has "failed" for 2 seasons in a row and only make changes to the playing staff, or also change the management team

Warnes not actually had a transfer budget to buy players in. He's been allowed only to offer high salaries so has missed out on the best players he might have has a chance to sign for the club if a transfer budget could have been used.