The Ukraine War

[Gone]

50 minutes ago, Unlucky Alf said:

Official Russian report said a lorry exploded and oil tankers beside caught fire...I see a lorry but no oil tankers

 

The oil tankers were on the railway bridge next to the road bridge I think from the footage I’ve seen this morning. 

[Ramarena]

This is big news.

It was Russias major supply line for the southern occupation.

They can still supply the south via the ports, but this is a huge blow to their logistics in that area and will apply big pressure to limited resources.

Also it’s going create huge panic amongst any Russians who’ve hovered  up holiday homes in Crimea and didn’t leave a few weeks ago.

If Russias defences collapse further, we may end up find out what horrific crimes have committed at Mariupol.

[Ramarena]

Forgot to add, its a day after Putin’s birthday and he’s just been hit with one of the most symbolic losses of the war so far.

[Crewton]

I reckon he'll be getting very twitchy. He's being humiliated. We're entering a very dangerous phase. He's just appointed a controversial General to take over the entire military operation. I just hope there are some around him strong enough to keep his finger off the nuclear button. 

[Ramarena]

2 hours ago, Crewton said:

I reckon he'll be getting very twitchy. He's being humiliated. We're entering a very dangerous phase. He's just appointed a controversial General to take over the entire military operation. I just hope there are some around him strong enough to keep his finger off the nuclear button. 

Imagine being the guy in charge of the FSB right now, he’s going to end up “committing suicide” out of a 17th floor window with twenty bullet wounds in his back.

I notice overnight they launched a bunch of missiles at a residential area in zaporizhzhia killing 17 people, 6 of whom were children.

Ironically Zaporizhzhia is part of the regions they claim to have annexed.

I know it’s a tantrum attack after the bridge, but why would they target those they claim are their own, instead of a tactical nuclear strike on Ukraine if they had the capacity to. Is he waiting to lose Kherson or Mariupol before going big?

Whilst you can never rule it out, I think the nuclear stuff is Sabre rattling and it’s all he has left, he may no longer have the capacity for even a small nuclear strike. Seems his major punishment is hitting supposedly new Russian civilians with cruise missiles!

[Crewton]

38 minutes ago, Ramarena said:

Imagine being the guy in charge of the FSB right now, he’s going to end up “committing suicide” out of a 17th floor window with twenty bullet wounds in his back.

I notice overnight they launched a bunch of missiles at a residential area in zaporizhzhia killing 17 people, 6 of whom were children.

Ironically Zaporizhzhia is part of the regions they claim to have annexed.

I know it’s a tantrum attack after the bridge, but why would they target those they claim are their own, instead of a tactical nuclear strike on Ukraine if they had the capacity to. Is he waiting to lose Kherson or Mariupol before going big?

Whilst you can never rule it out, I think the nuclear stuff is Sabre rattling and it’s all he has left, he may no longer have the capacity for even a small nuclear strike. Seems his major punishment is hitting supposedly new Russian civilians with cruise missiles!

His strategy has failed utterly. All the European countries bordering Russia are queuing up to join NATO, the parts of Ukraine he effectively controlled at the beginning of the war are under threat and only the most odious regimes on the planet still support him. The knock-on effects on the Russian people are starting to hurt and hundreds of thousands have fled the country. Unless someone does the decent thing and dethrones him I can see him increasingly striking out against civilian targets to try to break their will to fight on, that's why I fear he might convince himself a nuclear strike is worth the risk. 

[Tamworthram]

To change the subject a little (and apologies if this has been mentioned already) but I have been listening to a very good BBC podcast series called "The scramble for rare earths". The final episode suggests one of the reasons for the invasion might have been because of Ukraine's resources of rare earth metals/elements. Apparently, Ukraine are amongst the top five countries for such a resource (mostly in the East of the country and Donbass in particular). Incidentally, despite their name, they're not actually rare but are essential to modern technology and the generation of green energy.

[Ramarena]

46 minutes ago, Crewton said:

His strategy has failed utterly. All the European countries bordering Russia are queuing up to join NATO, the parts of Ukraine he effectively controlled at the beginning of the war are under threat and only the most odious regimes on the planet still support him. The knock-on effects on the Russian people are starting to hurt and hundreds of thousands have fled the country. Unless someone does the decent thing and dethrones him I can see him increasingly striking out against civilian targets to try to break their will to fight on, that's why I fear he might convince himself a nuclear strike is worth the risk. 

It’s a possibility no matter how remote.

I also don’t think dethroning him is an answer really. The organisations and people with the power to get rid of him have a similar mindset, it’s institutional. So it’s meet the new boss same as the old one, unless you have an organic revolution led by the people.

Similar to the USA in some ways, which although is a democratic system, you can change President, but the organisations that work in the background CIA and the wider military, etc will always be operating in a similar manner.

[Ramarena]

5 minutes ago, Tamworthram said:

To change the subject a little (and apologies if this has been mentioned already) but I have been listening to a very good BBC podcast series called "The scramble for rare earths". The final episode suggests one of the reasons for the invasion might have been because of Ukraine's resources of rare earth metals/elements. Apparently, Ukraine are amongst the top five countries for such a resource (mostly in the East of the country and Donbass in particular). Incidentally, despite their name, they're not actually rare but are essential to modern technology and the generation of green energy.

Certainly an interesting angle and definitely a possible reason.

Crimea has huge gas reserves so no surprise that was annexed early.

[uttoxram75]

4 minutes ago, Tamworthram said:

To change the subject a little (and apologies if this has been mentioned already) but I have been listening to a very good BBC podcast series called "The scramble for rare earths". The final episode suggests one of the reasons for the invasion might have been because of Ukraine's resources of rare earth metals/elements. Apparently, Ukraine are amongst the top five countries for such a resource (mostly in the East of the country and Donbass in particular). Incidentally, despite their name, they're not actually rare but are essential to modern technology and the generation of green energy.

Theres not many wars or coups nowadays without financial gain for someone. Oil in the Gulf, minerals/elements in Ukraine, Gaddafi threatening to create an African currency to rival the Dollar, Venezuela selling oil in its own currency instead of the dollar, Afghanistan is full of rare metals, oil, coal etc....always follow the money.

[Crewton]

57 minutes ago, Tamworthram said:

To change the subject a little (and apologies if this has been mentioned already) but I have been listening to a very good BBC podcast series called "The scramble for rare earths". The final episode suggests one of the reasons for the invasion might have been because of Ukraine's resources of rare earth metals/elements. Apparently, Ukraine are amongst the top five countries for such a resource (mostly in the East of the country and Donbass in particular). Incidentally, despite their name, they're not actually rare but are essential to modern technology and the generation of green energy.

I caught some of that too. It's a potential benefit to Russia (and to the West if the territory is under Ukrainian control and they remain west-facing) but I still think the main driver for Putin is resentment of how he believes the west has treated Russia since the fall of the Berlin wall and his desire to recreate the USSR in substance if not ideology.

Ukraine's rare earth deposits are not large when compared to China and Russia, but they're important to Europe's efforts to develop alternative energy strategies and new technologies general. I found the article in this link useful reading on the subject.

[Tamworthram]

33 minutes ago, Crewton said:

I caught some of that too. It's a potential benefit to Russia (and to the West if the territory is under Ukrainian control and they remain west-facing) but I still think the main driver for Putin is resentment of how he believes the west has treated Russia since the fall of the Berlin wall and his desire to recreate the USSR in substance if not ideology.

Ukraine's rare earth deposits are not large when compared to China and Russia, but they're important to Europe's efforts to develop alternative energy strategies and new technologies general. I found the article in this link useful reading on the subject.

I agree. It's probably more a case of denying the west access than Russia actually needing the resources themselves whatever his reasons reasons were for starting the war, whether justified or not. It's probably also a case of reducing their reliance on China for any of the elements Russia may not have large amounts of.

[Archied]

3 hours ago, Tamworthram said:

To change the subject a little (and apologies if this has been mentioned already) but I have been listening to a very good BBC podcast series called "The scramble for rare earths". The final episode suggests one of the reasons for the invasion might have been because of Ukraine's resources of rare earth metals/elements. Apparently, Ukraine are amongst the top five countries for such a resource (mostly in the East of the country and Donbass in particular). Incidentally, despite their name, they're not actually rare but are essential to modern technology and the generation of green energy.

I pointed this angle out about 40 pages ago with Russia and the west vying for the same old same old 

[Crewton]

Multiple missile strikes on civilian infrastructure and domestic targets in Kyiv, Lviv and other Ukrainian cities this morning (or "terrorist attacks" as Putin likes to call them), pretty much as expected. Given that the targets also included Dnipro and Zaporizhia, he's now officially trying to kill his own people as well as Ukrainians.

Edited October 10, 2022 by Crewton

[Stive Pesley]

15 hours ago, Archied said:

I pointed this angle out about 40 pages ago with Russia and the west vying for the same old same old 

Yes I remember the discussion, a strong theory that this could be the first skirmish in the energy/climate wars, what with the gas pipelines and Ukraine being a major producer of basic cereal crops. Could just be dressed up as a matter of ethnicity and identity, but really it's about gaining control the region for far more fundamental reasons?

[Archied]

2 hours ago, Stive Pesley said:

Yes I remember the discussion, a strong theory that this could be the first skirmish in the energy/climate wars, what with the gas pipelines and Ukraine being a major producer of basic cereal crops. Could just be dressed up as a matter of ethnicity and identity, but really it's about gaining control the region for far more fundamental reasons?

Sadly Steve it always turns out to be basic money , greed and power with both sides claiming moral high ground ,

we swallow the propaganda that we are in it for the Ukrainian people , Russians swallow the same line from putin whilst countless innocent people on both sides are put to the sword,,

 

[Highgate]

12 minutes ago, Archied said:

Sadly Steve it always turns out to be basic money , greed and power with both sides claiming moral high ground ,

we swallow the propaganda that we are in it for the Ukrainian people , Russians swallow the same line from putin whilst countless innocent people on both sides are put to the sword,,

But you are making it sound like Russia and Ukraine (or even the West)  are equally culpable in this particular war.  Surely you agree that Putin is far more to blame than anyone else for this conflict?  

[Crewton]

The West has basically done nothing over the past 8 years to remove Russia from Ukrainian territory. If we're only "in it for the money" why did it take a formal invasion by Russia to give meaningful support? It obviously wasn't a priority? 

[Ramarena]

4 hours ago, Crewton said:

Multiple missile strikes on civilian infrastructure and domestic targets in Kyiv, Lviv and other Ukrainian cities this morning (or "terrorist attacks" as Putin likes to call them), pretty much as expected. Given that the targets also included Dnipro and Zaporizhia, he's now officially trying to kill his own people as well as Ukrainians.

I think this is the change of generals coming into affect.

Putin bought in a new guy as head of the Ukraine war on Saturday, forget his name, but he’d been overseeing the Russian army campaign in Syria. Hitting civilians and civilian infrastructure was his signature move in that conflict.

Looks like the new guy is staying with what he knows.

[Ramarena]

17 minutes ago, Ramarena said:

I think this is the change of generals coming into affect.

Putin bought in a new guy as head of the Ukraine war on Saturday, forget his name, but he’d been overseeing the Russian army campaign in Syria. Hitting civilians and civilian infrastructure was his signature move in that conflict.

Looks like the new guy is staying with what he knows.

I forgot the add, I think this is also the same guy who started using the now infamous double tap missile strike in Syria.

For those unfamiliar, the Russians would strike a apartment building with a missile, then wait 20-30 mins. Then they would send a second missile to the exact same coordinates.

Why?

Because they knew emergency services will have rushed to the scene, alongside members of the public in the area, who are all trying to help/save people in the initial wreckage. 

The second missile then lands on the people trying to save the victims of the first.