The Ukraine War

[Ram-Alf]

34 minutes ago, Alpha said:

 

I very much doubt The West has recruited him. How does that make sense for either side?

Non of this makes sense, Certainly to those who think they're ITK, Was it a ploy for Putin to get out of Ukraine?, Did Prigozhin want to become the next leader of Russia?, Why would Putin go cap in hand to Lukashenko when he already under his thumb?

FWIW I think Progozhin is a dead man walking if what was reported yesterday or this could be the biggest bluff since 6-6-1944, His Wagner group will come under Putin, Those in the top of the Wagner group will be eradicated, The soldier on the ground will either sign up or mooch off with their war spoils.

So i'll and those others around the world will ask...what the phuck was it all about  

 

 

[Ram-Alf]

Pinched from Sky News...makes sense or does it...confused.com 😱

Is Prigozhin in Putin's pocket? Something still smells off

There is, quite rightly, much focus this Sunday on how this mini-coup will have damaged Vladimir Putin’s authority and credibility. 

To declare someone treasonous, promise the strongest punishment and then forgive them a few hours later and pack them off to the country next door does not show much backbone.

That said, let us look at the outcome, with the caveat that there are still a great many unknowns. 

Prigozhin heads to Belarus, in what capacity and with what powers we do not know (and which would not be announced now in any case as he is presumably supposed to be in disgrace).

Rumours as to the health of the Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko have been swirling for a while. Since the disputed 2020 elections, Vladimir Putin has tightened his grip on Belarus without having to invade it, as he did Ukraine, given Lukashenko's precarious hold on power - his people do not like him. 

Now one of Putin's most powerful and dangerous military henchmen is in situ there. For a long time, Prigozhin was the Kremlin’s project. Perhaps he still is. For Ukraine, for the Belarusian people and for the West, a Belarus where Prigozhin exerts power is a scarier place even than it is now.

The counter-argument to that is, of course, that if all this was just a carefully stage-managed piece of statecraft, then the Kremlin does not come out looking good. 

Why did Putin bother with that speech if this was all part of the plan? It could be that Prigozhin simply recognised that he did not have the support in the military that he might have hoped for. 

It could be that he sits quiet, in exile in Belarus, and carries on his activities elsewhere around the world on behalf of the Kremlin. But he is not the type to sit quietly, even if yesterday he did go remarkably quietly. Something still smells off.

Edited June 25, 2023 by The Last Post

[Van der MoodHoover]

4 hours ago, The Last Post said:

You wouldn't want to sell him a life insurance policy 😁

I'd flog him a life annuity today......

[Ram-Alf]

12 minutes ago, Van der MoodHoover said:

I'd flog him a life annuity today......

And take the commission...there's blood on them hands 😁 

[Van der MoodHoover]

21 minutes ago, The Last Post said:

And take the commission...there's blood on them hands 😁 

Commission ain't what it used to be...... it's the regulators what suck all the cash out these days....

[ramit]

 

[Ramarena]

Who knows what actually went on, however Putin is definitely weakened by this.

Prigozhin is assumed to be weakened by this unless something significant changes/hasn’t been noticed.

The Russian army will have been weakened by this, both in numbers and moral.

The only strengthened groups I can think of are obviously Ukraine, also the various factions within the Russian elite who are not fully behind Putin.

[Ramarena]

That’s a proper dodgy Twitter account

[Ram-Alf]

23 minutes ago, Ramarena said:

Who knows what actually went on, however Putin is definitely weakened by this.

Prigozhin is assumed to be weakened by this unless something significant changes/hasn’t been noticed.

The Russian army will have been weakened by this, both in numbers and moral.

The only strengthened groups I can think of are obviously Ukraine, also the various factions within the Russian elite who are not fully behind Putin.

You've been following this from more angles than I have Ramarena...what's your take on all this, It fizzled out quicker than a wet Catherine wheel on bonfire night

Edited June 25, 2023 by The Last Post

[Alph]

It really stinks of a Russian bluff.

They're usually blatant. I'm sure we won't have to wait long to find out either way. 

Having Belarus offer you asylum from Russia is pretty funny. 

The popular thought seems to be Prigozhin made a lot of money yesterday and that his betrayal was protecting the interest of his mercenary company.

He should spend that money on a bungalow if that's the case. Caterers can be ever so clumsy. 

[Ramarena]

43 minutes ago, The Last Post said:

You've been following this from more angles than I have Ramarena...what's your take on all this, It fizzled out quicker than a wet Catherine wheel on bonfire night

Hard to know really. 

Could be that Prigozhin thought he’d have support for him gathering as he approached Moscow, but it didn’t show in the numbers he hoped for.

Could be that Putin had something in reserve he could use against/to subdue Prigozhin. 

Some Russian war bloggers are saying this was a master stroke by Putin as the FSB knew about Prigozhins plan and he allowed it to play out to see who the traitors within the military and security services were. I suppose this is possible, but it’s projected huge weakness and offering Prigozhin a exile deal makes that look even worse.
 
Ultimately we know that a large group of Wagner fighters left Ukraine, crossed the border and went to Rostov, took military bases/buildings they claimed to have shot down helicopters which numerous reports said was legitimate. They do the same again in Voronezh and then it gets called off between Voronezh and Moscow. 

What happens Saturday afternoon/evening after Wagner hits Voronezh Is the big question. 

Hopefully whatever this was, it gives Ukraine some much needed momentum.

[ramit]

While sifting through videos of media reactions to this "happening" i found this short segment.

Am surprised that a Sky News reporter is allowed to be this candid.  It certainly doesn't rhyme with what the other news sites are offering in response to yesterday's events.

 

[Ramarena]

39 minutes ago, ramit said:

While sifting through videos of media reactions to this "happening" i found this short segment.

Am surprised that a Sky News reporter is allowed to be this candid.  It certainly doesn't rhyme with what the other news sites are offering in response to yesterday's events.

 

It’s no surprise at all.

Cory Bernardi has been coming out with this stuff on Sky Oz for ages.

He started off with Muslims and went on from there.

[Stive Pesley]

1 hour ago, Alpha said:

Having Belarus offer you asylum from Russia is pretty funny

 

[Highgate]

2 hours ago, ramit said:

While sifting through videos of media reactions to this "happening" i found this short segment.

Am surprised that a Sky News reporter is allowed to be this candid.  It certainly doesn't rhyme with what the other news sites are offering in response to yesterday's events.

 

Yeah it's true that there are always interested parties making huge amounts of money from war and it's also true that the 'military industrial complex', is a hugely powerful lobby in the US, but the question has to be asked, in the case of Ukraine what is the US and the West supposed to do?

Putin has decided he wanted, at the very least, a big chunk of Ukrainian territory for Russia and invaded Ukraine in order to secure it.  If the West did not support Ukraine, then despite the valiant efforts of the Ukrainians he would surely succeed, so the West has the choice of supporting Ukraine or watch it fall to Russia. The fact that business is booming for the arms industry is just another negative outcome that we can thank Putin for.  Peace negotiations should always be on the table, but neither side seem interested at the moment, Russia's minimum aspiration is naturally far beyond what is acceptable to Ukraine, so there doesn't seem to be any potential for a negotiated resolution right now.

Sky News Australia is a dubious source of information at the best of times, but I think the days of calling Putin a 'moderate' are long gone.  Yes, there are possibly even worse options in Russia at the moment, Prigozhin himself maybe being one of them, but Putin's legacy as a dangerous war criminal is now forever secure.

On the events of the last few days I'm completely in the dark. I know there were tensions building between Wagner and the Russian Army, but the way this played out, it's sudden end and the role of Belarus doesn't make any sense to me. I was just hoping whatever occurred it would work to the Ukrainians advantage..and to some extent maybe that will still be the case.  

[CBX1985]

6 hours ago, Van der MoodHoover said:

Commission ain't what it used to be...... it's the regulators what suck all the cash out these days....

You cannot obtain commission these days.  You have to charge a set fee.  Clients preferred the old days when they didn't know what they paid as it was all bundled in

My fee for an annuity purchase is 3% of initial pot.  Few purchase them these days, except when they have guarantees.    

[Van der MoodHoover]

58 minutes ago, CBX1985 said:

You cannot obtain commission these days.  You have to charge a set fee.  Clients preferred the old days when they didn't know what they paid as it was all bundled in

My fee for an annuity purchase is 3% of initial pot.  Few purchase them these days, except when they have guarantees.    

Annuities may be making a comeback with prospective asset yields of c6% (on typical investment grade corporate debt).

I hadn't realised CAR had reached annuities, but I guess economically it's the same outcome for the client.

[ramit]

9 hours ago, Highgate said:

Yeah it's true that there are always interested parties making huge amounts of money from war and it's also true that the 'military industrial complex', is a hugely powerful lobby in the US, but the question has to be asked, in the case of Ukraine what is the US and the West supposed to do?

Putin has decided he wanted, at the very least, a big chunk of Ukrainian territory for Russia and invaded Ukraine in order to secure it.  If the West did not support Ukraine, then despite the valiant efforts of the Ukrainians he would surely succeed, so the West has the choice of supporting Ukraine or watch it fall to Russia. The fact that business is booming for the arms industry is just another negative outcome that we can thank Putin for.  Peace negotiations should always be on the table, but neither side seem interested at the moment, Russia's minimum aspiration is naturally far beyond what is acceptable to Ukraine, so there doesn't seem to be any potential for a negotiated resolution right now.

Sky News Australia is a dubious source of information at the best of times, but I think the days of calling Putin a 'moderate' are long gone.  Yes, there are possibly even worse options in Russia at the moment, Prigozhin himself maybe being one of them, but Putin's legacy as a dangerous war criminal is now forever secure.

On the events of the last few days I'm completely in the dark. I know there were tensions building between Wagner and the Russian Army, but the way this played out, it's sudden end and the role of Belarus doesn't make any sense to me. I was just hoping whatever occurred it would work to the Ukrainians advantage..and to some extent maybe that will still be the case.  

i am not going to debate with you what the US and the west should or should not have done leading up to the bloody mess we have today, it serves only to entertain the devil, as we say here.

Surely we can agree though that hundreds of thousands of dead, wounded and mentally scarred soldiers plus an embittered population on both sides is an upsetting and terrible reality that everyone should have at least attempted to avert.  It is now a war of attrition between Russia and the west and will i am afraid go on for quite a bit longer and perhaps become the stuff of nightmares for all of us.

What will happen as a result of the events of the last few days, we can only guess, but that will become clearer in the coming weeks.

[Ramarena]

3 hours ago, Highgate said:

Yeah it's true that there are always interested parties making huge amounts of money from war and it's also true that the 'military industrial complex', is a hugely powerful lobby in the US, but the question has to be asked, in the case of Ukraine what is the US and the West supposed to do?

Putin has decided he wanted, at the very least, a big chunk of Ukrainian territory for Russia and invaded Ukraine in order to secure it.  If the West did not support Ukraine, then despite the valiant efforts of the Ukrainians he would surely succeed, so the West has the choice of supporting Ukraine or watch it fall to Russia. The fact that business is booming for the arms industry is just another negative outcome that we can thank Putin for.  Peace negotiations should always be on the table, but neither side seem interested at the moment, Russia's minimum aspiration is naturally far beyond what is acceptable to Ukraine, so there doesn't seem to be any potential for a negotiated resolution right now.

Sky News Australia is a dubious source of information at the best of times, but I think the days of calling Putin a 'moderate' are long gone.  Yes, there are possibly even worse options in Russia at the moment, Prigozhin himself maybe being one of them, but Putin's legacy as a dangerous war criminal is now forever secure.

On the events of the last few days I'm completely in the dark. I know there were tensions building between Wagner and the Russian Army, but the way this played out, it's sudden end and the role of Belarus doesn't make any sense to me. I was just hoping whatever occurred it would work to the Ukrainians advantage..and to some extent maybe that will still be the case.  

Yes as you state the U.S and other western military weapons producers will benefit. It's undeniable. That' sadly what happens when war breaks out. 

What these people never mention though, is that on the other side Russian, Chinese, Iranian, etc military weapons producers will benefit. 

Why don't these people mention this???????

Russia's decision to invade Ukraine must have been an absolute godsend for the Eastern weapons producers, why don't we hear hand wringing about that I wonder????????

[Highgate]

2 hours ago, ramit said:

i am not going to debate with you what the US and the west should or should not have done leading up to the bloody mess we have today, it serves only to entertain the devil, as we say here.

Surely we can agree though that hundreds of thousands of dead, wounded and mentally scarred soldiers plus an embittered population on both sides is an upsetting and terrible reality that everyone should have at least attempted to avert.  It is now a war of attrition between Russia and the west and will i am afraid go on for quite a bit longer and perhaps become the stuff of nightmares for all of us.

What will happen as a result of the events of the last few days, we can only guess, but that will become clearer in the coming weeks.

Yes, I can definitely agree with that. 

And I agree that the West made mistakes in the years leading up to this war.  But nothing that forced Russia into an invasion in my opinion. For me, the vast majority of blame for the war lies with one man, and I think we all know who that man is.  

And whatever the West may have done before the invasion, I'm really not sure what they could have done differently since the war started, unless they were ok with Putin taking over Ukraine, all the way to the banks of the Dnieper at least.