The Ukraine War

[sage]

Just now, The Last Post said:

With Ukraine raining blows on the Russian army that's left.

Yes but I think they will be slightly cautious initially, they want the troops to move before they really start advancing and would prefer Prigozhin not easily being cast as the reason for Russia's defeat will suit them for a while.

[Ramarena]

1 minute ago, sage said:

Putin will stop him, but will have to take troops from Ukraine to do it. 

You could well be right, personally I think all bets are off and it’s just a case of watch this space. Russia is very unpredictable.

It will be interesting to see if troops from Ukraine will come to Putin’s assistance. He’s lost a massive chunk of his authority now.

3 day to Kyiv has turned into 3 days to Moscow. The Russian elite certainly didn’t see that coming.

[Ram-Alf]

19 minutes ago, sage said:

Yes but I think they will be slightly cautious initially, they want the troops to move before they really start advancing and would prefer Prigozhin not easily being cast as the reason for Russia's defeat will suit them for a while.

I'll put a little caveat in there...180 troops are reported to have welcomed Prigozhin in Rostov on Don, One soldier in Ukraine reported to have said..."if there's a revolution in Moscow I'm gonna get pissed tonight" his senior officer said "chill a bit until we know the score" or words to that effect, I see a shed load of troops bailing if Moscow comes under fire.

It looks like Prigozhin has bitten the hand that fed him.

[Ramarena]

9 minutes ago, The Last Post said:

I'll put a little caveat in there...180 troops are reported to have welcomed Prigozhin in Rostov on Don, One soldier in Ukraine reported to have said..."if there's a revolution in Moscow I'm gonna get pissed tonight" his senior officer said "chill a bit until we know the score" or words to that effect, I see a shed load of troops bailing if Moscow comes under fire.

It looks like Prigozhin has bitten the hand that fed him.

Indeed, 48 hrs ago Prigozhin looked to be trapped in Bakhmut between the Ukrainian and Russian armies with no real exit option and just lobbing insults at Gerasimov and Shoigu………now he’s taken two Russian cities and important military installations and he’s at least half way to Moscow, without a huge amount of resistance!

[alram]

just read that guys wikipedia page and bloody hell, he seems like a right wrongun

 

 

those that want the west to help him need to give it a read, seems like a modern day heinrich himmler

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yevgeny_Prigozhin

 

[Ramarena]

8 minutes ago, alram said:

just read that guys wikipedia page and bloody hell, he seems like a right wrongun

 

 

those that want the west to help him need to give it a read, seems like a modern day heinrich himmler

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yevgeny_Prigozhin

 

Yep and it’s not just him. Wagner is fully of wretched individuals and that’s before we get onto the thousands of criminals they recently acquired.

[Eddie]

38 minutes ago, alram said:

just read that guys wikipedia page and bloody hell, he seems like a right wrongun

 

 

those that want the west to help him need to give it a read, seems like a modern day heinrich himmler

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yevgeny_Prigozhin

 

Something similar.

[GboroRam]

[Leeds Ram]

3 hours ago, Ramarena said:

As Leeds Ram said initially it will be positive for Ukraine as it will cause confusion in the Russian Army and weaken them, some elements may even desert.

However mid to long term, this will only be bad. Remember Putin allowed Wagner fill its ranks with a wide range of criminals from Russian prisons, these guys are now launching a coup. Wagner also has significant Nazi elements (quite the irony given the hand wringing on here regarding “Azov Nazi’s”)

Prigozhin has always been pro war against Ukraine, he just thinks it’s been completely mis-managed.

He’s in charge of a group that Putin used to commit war crimes and other atrocities in conflicts. Imagine what he will do if he is running the Russian army?

I can only see bad things if he manages to overthrow Putin. That’s not to say that Putin’s reign isn’t absolutely terrible.

Whilst Putin’s potential downfall is well deserved, what could replace him is absolutely disturbing!

I think, whatever happens, the chances of Prigozhin becoming Russian president are next to 0. There's no way Wagner have been able to penetrate this deep inside Russia this quickly without some higher-level backing or a level of previously unseen apathy. Also, Russia is a massive country. Prigozhin may be able to help start a revolution, but he won't be able to govern the country without strong apparatuses and institutional backing. 

However, this is nerve-wracking. Chaos in a country with such a large number of nuclear weapons and engaged in a war with a neighbour is never a formula for success. Despite this, all we can do is sit and watch what happens.  

[Leeds Ram]

The best-case scenario could be that the domestic security forces hold up Wagner long enough for Putin's troops to move back from Ukraine and defend the capital. This will allow Ukraine to strengthen their counter-offensive, retake key areas and leave Putin bleeding domestically. He'll have no choice but to accept a military defeat. Of course, if Wagner rolls into Moscow at 8 tonight, as is predicted by their current speed, then it'll be over very quickly. There may still be a space for a strong deal on peace given the domestic mess Russia is now in

[Ramarena]

Looks like Prigozhin is calling it off

https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20230624-live-moscow-accuses-wagner-head-of-mutiny-he-says-his-forces-enter-russia

[Ramarena]

So Lukashenko says he’s brokered a deal with Prigozhin to halt Wagners advance. 

However no word on what the terms of this “ceasefire” are.

[Day]

[ramit]

Wagner troops rolling down the roads in trucks and armored carriers with zero logistical support, zero air cover and the Russian army unable to stop them reaching the gates of Moscow.  i am not buying that for one second.  If Wagner is being allowed to move through the countryside because the army units largely support them, why are they not joining the ranks and marching on Moscow?

Prigozhin has proved an habitual liar, the video meant to show the aftermath of an attack on his forces by Russian army is laughable.

This is all a show IMO, for what ultimate purpose we shall perhaps see in the coming days.

[Ram-Alf]

2 minutes ago, ramit said:

Wagner troops rolling down the roads in trucks and armored carriers with zero logistical support, zero air cover and the Russian army unable to stop them reaching the gates of Moscow.  i am not buying that for one second.  If Wagner is being allowed to move through the countryside because the army units largely support them, why are they not joining the ranks and marching on Moscow?

Prigozhin has proved an habitual liar, the video meant to show the aftermath of an attack on his forces by Russian army is laughable.

This is all a show IMO, for what ultimate purpose we shall perhaps see in the coming days.

A mad man scares the sh!t out of a mad man and a mad man brokers a deal.

Something doesn't add up, Has Prigozhin had the support of Russia's secret services, Putin apparently holed up in St Petersburg, Prigozhin and co charged with treason, Who's calling the shots?.

If Putin comes out of this unscathed...heads will roll, If he decides to give an amnesty to all it'll show he's weak, It aint finished yet.   

[ramit]

8 hours ago, The Last Post said:

Something doesn't add up, Has Prigozhin had the support of Russia's secret services, Putin apparently holed up in St Petersburg, Prigozhin and co charged with treason, Who's calling the shots?.  

Some are of the opinion that Ukrainian secret service and western secret services have recruited Prigozhin and convinced him that on the road to Moscow the mayors of towns and cities would openly support him, along with armed units and then a coup would succeed.

Others suspect that this is a ploy by Putin and Prigozhin to establish a reason to take a more hard line position and to expose and replace the commanders, mayors etc who fell for the ploy.

Time will tell...perhaps, but i wouldn't search for clues for what this is in the news reporting, except maybe to spot what it isn't.

[Ramarena]

19 minutes ago, The Last Post said:

A mad man scares the sh!t out of a mad man and a mad man brokers a deal.

Something doesn't add up, Has Prigozhin had the support of Russia's secret services, Putin apparently holed up in St Petersburg, Prigozhin and co charged with treason, Who's calling the shots?.

If Putin comes out of this unscathed...heads will roll, If he decides to give an amnesty to all it'll show he's weak, It aint finished yet.   

I think the only things that we can deduce from this, is that nothing the Russians do makes any sense and everyone has come out of this looking weak at present.

Unless someone has some 4d chess master plan, which is highly unlikely with this lot.

 

 

[Ramarena]

Purely speculative, but I’d forgotten that Putin had declared that next week was the deadline for Wagner mercenaries being drafted into be drafted into the Russian army next Weds. 

I wonder if it’s got a lot to do with that.

[Mick Brolly]

Bottled it 

[Ram-Alf]

29 minutes ago, Ramarena said:

Purely speculative, but I’d forgotten that Putin had declared that next week was the deadline for Wagner mercenaries being drafted into be drafted into the Russian army next Weds. 

I wonder if it’s got a lot to do with that.

He's been in St Petersburg all day printing the forms out for his new recruits 😁