G STAR RAM Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 54 minutes ago, Bris Vegas said: Controversy always creates more attention. Stating facts isn't really controversial though. Telling lies to justify actions is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bris Vegas Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 2 hours ago, G STAR RAM said: Stating facts isn't really controversial though. Telling lies to justify actions is. It is if you only use one set of stats without context. Proof. Derby are the worst ever team in the Championship at this stage with 11 points being the lowest tally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ariotofmyown Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 So it seems like the fact here is that 40% of people testing positive for Covid caught it in hospital or were not yet positive when admitted. From this stat, lots of conclusions have been jumped too. I'd like to know: What % of Covid deaths come from this 40% who caught it in hospital. Of this 40%, what were the death rates by vaccination status and age. It could turn out that going into hospital for something else whilst unvaccinated is very risky. What was the survival chances of the 40% who were already in hospital. Did Covid finish them off a few days early, or were they in for a routine operation. What is the vaccination status of people admitted for Covid by age range. Imagine if it turned out that a much larger proportion of spreading in hospital was done by unvaccinated people? Andrew3000 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PistoldPete Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 10 hours ago, TexasRam said: If you can’t answer your own question mate you’re part of the problem OK I will answer the question. We do need to treat the deaths data with caution. The daily COVID deaths figures on the Government website is really only of use to show trends on a daily basis. The actual deaths from COVID are collated by the ONS sometime later, based on what is recorded on the death certificate. From these ONS has been able to establish the actual cause of death. In the majority of cases , if COVID is mentioned on the death certificate then COVID was found to be the actual cause of death in 90% of cases, so 90% of reported deaths died from COVID not just with it. So for that reason the daily data may overstate the COVID deaths by around 10%. On the other hand, the data doesn't measure deaths in private homes, it doesn't measure deaths of people who were not tested (not such a problem now but it was a big problem early in the pandemic) , it doesn't include people who died of COVID more than 28 days after a positive test, for example people who were discharged then have a relapse. So overall the daily stats will typically understate the number of COVID deaths not overstate them. ariotofmyown 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gone Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 14 minutes ago, PistoldPete said: OK I will answer the question. We do need to treat the deaths data with caution. The daily COVID deaths figures on the Government website is really only of use to show trends on a daily basis. The actual deaths from COVID are collated by the ONS sometime later, based on what is recorded on the death certificate. From these ONS has been able to establish the actual cause of death. In the majority of cases , if COVID is mentioned on the death certificate then COVID was found to be the actual cause of death in 90% of cases, so 90% of reported deaths died from COVID not just with it. So for that reason the daily data may overstate the COVID deaths by around 10%. On the other hand, the data doesn't measure deaths in private homes, it doesn't measure deaths of people who were not tested (not such a problem now but it was a big problem early in the pandemic) , it doesn't include people who died of COVID more than 28 days after a positive test, for example people who were discharged then have a relapse. So overall the daily stats will typically understate the number of COVID deaths not overstate them. We’ll have to agree to disagree then, I would think Covid as a cause of death has been overstated by at very least 50%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PistoldPete Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 1 minute ago, TexasRam said: We’ll have to agree to disagree then, I would think Covid as a cause of death has been overstated by at very least 50%. Sorry but that is just ridiculous. On what basis do you say that? ariotofmyown and maxjam 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gone Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 Just now, PistoldPete said: Sorry but that is just ridiculous. On what basis do you say that? Why is it ridiculous? Nothing other than anecdotal evidence from people I know who’s loved ones have passed away from long term illness only to have Covid as cause of death on the certificate when they had Covid before they passed but weren’t even ill with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
i-Ram Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 Excess death might be a better way of considering the impact of COVID. https://www.theactuary.com/news/2021/12/15/uk-suffers-record-period-excess-mortality I have no calculator about my person but this analysis might suggest COVID caused death is at 70/75% of oft reported levels. ariotofmyown, GboroRam and Andicis 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maxjam Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 20 minutes ago, PistoldPete said: OK I will answer the question. We do need to treat the deaths data with caution. The daily COVID deaths figures on the Government website is really only of use to show trends on a daily basis. The actual deaths from COVID are collated by the ONS sometime later, based on what is recorded on the death certificate. From these ONS has been able to establish the actual cause of death. In the majority of cases , if COVID is mentioned on the death certificate then COVID was found to be the actual cause of death in 90% of cases, so 90% of reported deaths died from COVID not just with it. So for that reason the daily data may overstate the COVID deaths by around 10%. On the other hand, the data doesn't measure deaths in private homes, it doesn't measure deaths of people who were not tested (not such a problem now but it was a big problem early in the pandemic) , it doesn't include people who died of COVID more than 28 days after a positive test, for example people who were discharged then have a relapse. So overall the daily stats will typically understate the number of COVID deaths not overstate them. The data is pretty accurate tbh. Deaths at home aren't being driven by covid, as pointed out in an early article I posted and again in this Times article; https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/excess-deaths-at-home-not-driven-by-covid-ons-says-5tsrhx0lw Death from whatever cause at home, or anywhere for that matter, is always written on the death certificate and included in the data. https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/articles/deathsinprivatehomesenglandandwales/2020finalandjanuarytojune2021provisional#cause-of-death The Govt also provide data of people who died from covid within 28 days of a positive covid test and 60 days of a positive covid test which is pretty comprehensive; https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1045329/Vaccine_surveillance_report_week_1_2022.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PistoldPete Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 25 minutes ago, ariotofmyown said: So it seems like the fact here is that 40% of people testing positive for Covid caught it in hospital or were not yet positive when admitted. From this stat, lots of conclusions have been jumped too. I'd like to know: What % of Covid deaths come from this 40% who caught it in hospital. Of this 40%, what were the death rates by vaccination status and age. It could turn out that going into hospital for something else whilst unvaccinated is very risky. What was the survival chances of the 40% who were already in hospital. Did Covid finish them off a few days early, or were they in for a routine operation. What is the vaccination status of people admitted for Covid by age range. Imagine if it turned out that a much larger proportion of spreading in hospital was done by unvaccinated people? Well yes that stat is alarming and rather more significant than Jenkins false presentation of it. Most people in hospital are not there because they are dying, so a lot of people will have come out of hospital in a worse state than when they went in. By the way the 40% didn't necessarily catch it in hospital some may have been admitted with mild symptoms or asymptomatic infection,. But a large number will have caught COVID in hospital. Unfortunately, hospitals do breed infections. So hospitals need to do everything they possibly can to stop that. Like introducing mandatory vaccination for all staff, something which has been delayed for far too long. ariotofmyown 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PistoldPete Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 8 minutes ago, i-Ram said: Excess death might be a better way of considering the impact of COVID. https://www.theactuary.com/news/2021/12/15/uk-suffers-record-period-excess-mortality I have no calculator about my person but this analysis might suggest COVID caused death is at 70/75% of oft reported levels. You are partly right iram. But the pandemic has been going for two years now. And COVID does affect the elderly disproportionately. So for an elderly person, COVID may have been their cause of death, but they may have been so old and frail they may have otherwise died during the 2 years of the pandemic anyway. So they wouldn't now appear in the excess deaths statistics because they were expected to die by now anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maxjam Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 (edited) 13 minutes ago, PistoldPete said: Well yes that stat is alarming and rather more significant than Jenkins false presentation of it. Most people in hospital are not there because they are dying, so a lot of people will have come out of hospital in a worse state than when they went in. By the way the 40% didn't necessarily catch it in hospital some may have been admitted with mild symptoms or asymptomatic infection,. But a large number will have caught COVID in hospital. Unfortunately, hospitals do breed infections. So hospitals need to do everything they possibly can to stop that. Like introducing mandatory vaccination for all staff, something which has been delayed for far too long. He didn't make a false presentation of it, he said the following in the tweet; 'But deaths are those with a +ve test so will rise. More are in hospital with it but not because of it so deaths data treat with caution.' We don't have accurate data on how many people caught or discovered they had covid in hospital. Neither do we have the data on how many of those people went on to die from covid therefore stating that we need to treat the data with caution is the correct thing to do. Your interpretation of his data seems flawed and biased at best. Furthermore as we've seen with omicron the vaccinated are just as likely to catch and spread covid as the unnvaccinated, therefore mandatory vaccination for anyone including hospital staff will not prevent transmission as both the latest data from the UK and this Danish study (bought to you courtesy of your favourite data analyst) show us; Edited January 9, 2022 by maxjam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PistoldPete Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 14 minutes ago, maxjam said: The data is pretty accurate tbh. Deaths at home aren't being driven by covid, as pointed out in an early article I posted and again in this Times article; https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/excess-deaths-at-home-not-driven-by-covid-ons-says-5tsrhx0lw Death from whatever cause at home, or anywhere for that matter, is always written on the death certificate and included in the data. https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/articles/deathsinprivatehomesenglandandwales/2020finalandjanuarytojune2021provisional#cause-of-death The Govt also provide data of people who died from covid within 28 days of a positive covid test and 60 days of a positive covid test which is pretty comprehensive; https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1045329/Vaccine_surveillance_report_week_1_2022.pdf I don't think you have read my post properly. The daily deaths figures and the ONS figures are different. The ONS figures are the more reliable, that is what I said. But thanks for the references. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
i-Ram Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 4 minutes ago, PistoldPete said: You are partly right iram. But the pandemic has been going for two years now. And COVID does affect the elderly disproportionately. So for an elderly person, COVID may have been their cause of death, but they may have been so old and frail they may have otherwise died during the 2 years of the pandemic anyway. So they wouldn't now appear in the excess deaths statistics because they were expected to die by now anyway. Well, perhaps. What do the experts think? - @Eddie @Archied @G STAR RAM @Mostyn6 GboroRam, Archied, Boycie and 2 others 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maxjam Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 Just now, PistoldPete said: I don't think you have read my post properly. The daily deaths figures and the ONS figures are different. The ONS figures are the more reliable, that is what I said. But thanks for the references. Yes there is obvious lag in the system but the ONS statistics are ultimately the most accurate ones and include those dying of covid at home and beyond 28 days of a positive test. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PistoldPete Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 3 minutes ago, maxjam said: He didn't make a false presentation of it, he said the following in the tweet; 'But deaths are those with a +ve test so will rise. More are in hospital with it but not because of it so deaths data treat with caution.' We don't have accurate data on how many people caught or discovered they had covid in hospital. Neither do we have the data on how many of those people went on to die from covid therefore stating that we need to treat the data with caution is the correct thing to do. Your interpretation of his data seems flawed and biased at best. Furthermore as we've seen with omicron the vaccinated are just as likely to catch and spread covid as the unnvaccinated, therefore mandatory vaccination for anyone including hospital staff will not prevent transmission as both the latest data from the UK and this Danish study (bought to you courtesy of your favourite data analyst) show us; I thought you said we were going to have to disagree about Jenkins. For as long as you keep quoting this charlatan, I will carry on debunking him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maxjam Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 Just now, PistoldPete said: I thought you said we were going to have to disagree about Jenkins. For as long as you keep quoting this charlatan, I will carry on debunking him. Because you stated that he provided a false presentation of the data, whereas wha he actually did was add a note of caution ? If you want to debunk the data, go ahead but lets not put words in the mouth of a guy that 'has won awards from the Royal Statistical Society and United Nations for the presentation of data.' Sorry I meant charlatan ? Archied 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PistoldPete Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 1 minute ago, maxjam said: Yes there is obvious lag in the system but the ONS statistics are ultimately the most accurate ones and include those dying of covid at home and beyond 28 days of a positive test. We agree on something! However even the ONS stats did not include the large numbers of people who died early in the pandemic with untested and undiagnosed COVID. Most of them in care homes. For some inexplicable reason there was sudden unexpected spike of people dying of alzheimers and dementia in April and May 2020. How could that possibly be? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PistoldPete Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 17 minutes ago, i-Ram said: Well, perhaps. What do the experts think? - @Eddie @Archied @G STAR RAM @Mostyn6 The article you quoted from refers to a "bounce back". Which is what you might expect given the effect I have described. The pandemic killing off a lot of old and frail leaving the stronger ones surviving. Unfortuanely the NHS struggling as it is will have an opposite effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PistoldPete Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 54 minutes ago, TexasRam said: Why is it ridiculous? Nothing other than anecdotal evidence from people I know who’s loved ones have passed away from long term illness only to have Covid as cause of death on the certificate when they had Covid before they passed but weren’t even ill with it So not much to go on anecdote. ariotofmyown 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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