Archied Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 3 minutes ago, Sith Happens said: Yes I agree. Which is really the point i was making. It womnt be 100%, but the take up so far, in my opinion has been fantastic. I dont agree with others trying to influence others into not taking it (not saying thats here but it certainly has been on the other forum) though. Yep I don’t think it’s good for anybody to tell someone else not to have it , personally I don’t particularly want it but don’t think I have much choice long term so thought ok just do it when called but again now thinking what’s the point/ rush with the noises around not returning to NORMAL anytime soon if ever??♂️, wife and daughter flat out don’t want it , son doesn’t seem fussed one way or the other, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albert Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Just now, G STAR RAM said: https://www.standard.co.uk/news/health/first-uk-coronavirus-death-end-january-a4547606.html https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-deaths-hospital-care-homes-ons-b446274.html I await your apology but wont be holding my breath. I was unaware, as noted above, though you did indeed get the date wrong. When I tried to verify your date, it turned up nothing. To date, the UK still officially states that it's first confirmed death was in March. Would be quite interesting to see whether any follow up tests were performed to rule out false positives, but it seems that outside the papers, this hasn't received much attention. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Archied Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 3 minutes ago, Albert said: I was unaware, as noted above, though you did indeed get the date wrong. When I tried to verify your date, it turned up nothing. To date, the UK still officially states that it's first confirmed death was in March. Would be quite interesting to see whether any follow up tests were performed to rule out false positives, but it seems that outside the papers, this hasn't received much attention. Seems strange you don’t need follow up tests to rule out false positives in other death figures areas that fit with your opinions ??♂️ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albert Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 20 minutes ago, Archied said: Seems strange you don’t need follow up tests to rule out false positives in other death figures areas that fit with your opinions ??♂️ False positive rates are very low, so over a large sample won't significantly change figures. We're talking in the ball park of 1% here. False negatives are the bigger concern there, and due to the nature of how tests work, ie you need a significant viral load, these tend to occur more often. Net, you expect there to be an underestimate of total cases for this fact. The reason it's important to note here is that we're discussing a one off case. Tens of thousands of people die per year of pneumonia, and December and January are not a good time for that. Even taking an underestimate of 1000 deaths in the month of January, with a false positive rate of 1%, you'd expect 100 of those deaths to flag as positive for Covid-19 if all tested, hence the need of follow up tests to confirm such. It's not routine to test old tissue samples though. It's very possible that it was Covid-19 in this case, and without knowing how frequently tissue samples were being tested from those who died in January, it's hard to know; the possibility of a false positive is worth considering. So no, it's not about 'fitting with opinions', but rather, just a simple matter of what we're actually discussing. 22 minutes ago, G STAR RAM said: Deleted. Cant be bothered. ??? I guess you've conceded the point. Fair enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uptherams Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 53 minutes ago, G STAR RAM said: https://www.standard.co.uk/news/health/first-uk-coronavirus-death-end-january-a4547606.html https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-deaths-hospital-care-homes-ons-b446274.html I await your apology but wont be holding my breath. I had it mid Feb 2020. They were not testing for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albert Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 1 minute ago, Uptherams said: I had it mid Feb 2020. They were not testing for it. How do you know you had it then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FindernRam Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 I majored in Statistics many decades ago and I'm well aware of the weakness that can be present in incomplete data leading to multiple interpretations of the same "results". There is also an inbuilt bias sometimes in that we tend to see what we want (or expected) to see, this is very evident in all the dialogue around covid and on this forum. So my personal take is to look two ways -at the mega picture, ignoring too much detail, and perversely looking at micro level to see if that confirms it. Macro level: Infections, admissions and deaths are all coming down fast. Jabs have been phenomenally well rolled out and no evidence to suggest they do not work Micro level: My 96 year old mum was tested positive as were 9 out of 20 residents in her care home plus 7 staff members. All are apparently well again, only one went to hospital (she had previously been in hospital and tested neg before return, but was the first to show symptoms). Put these hard facts together and even a cynic like me begins to smile again. PS I cannot believe how cheerful the covid marshalls were at the arena on Saturday night in the absolutely bitter wind outside. Well done to all of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIllyD Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 10 hours ago, G STAR RAM said: No, but the vast majority:- https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19weeklyinsights/latesthealthindicatorsinengland12february2021 https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare?areaType=nation&areaName=England Over 100k in the 18-64 age group admitted to hospital. Still maintaining this doesn't impact the young and healthy ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G STAR RAM Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Just now, BIllyD said: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare?areaType=nation&areaName=England Over 100k in the 18-64 age group admitted to hospital. Still maintaining this doesn't impact the young and healthy ? Yes because I think 18-64 is an extremely wide age range and includes 14 years of people that I would not include in the young and healthy category Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Norman Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9257521/Study-finds-Vitamin-D-reduces-Covid-deaths-60.html Vitamin D seems to help. Another variable to take into account when expressing an opinion of opening up this spring. Some ducking sunlight for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sith Happens Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 16 minutes ago, Norman said: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9257521/Study-finds-Vitamin-D-reduces-Covid-deaths-60.html Vitamin D seems to help. Another variable to take into account when expressing an opinion of opening up this spring. Some ducking sunlight for everyone. People who were asked to shield were already offered a 3 months supply of large dose Vitamin D. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIllyD Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 6 minutes ago, G STAR RAM said: Yes because I think 18-64 is an extremely wide age range and includes 14 years of people that I would not include in the young and healthy category Here is a few more stats for you While most seriously-ill men in intensive care were in their 60s, around 15% were in their 50s and 8% in their 40s. A quarter of coronavirus admissions to hospital are people under the age of 55, the head of NHS England has said. Oh and a spreadsheet for you https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2021/02/Covid-Publication-11-02-2021-Supplementary-Data.xlsx Assuming the age distribution is similar to the first wave for hospital admissions c. 60,000 of age 49 and under to have been hospitalised, with nearly 20,000 of those since the 1st of January. About 7,000 of them will have been in ICU. Of those who survived, their chance of coming out with a serious ongoing condition is significant, and many of them have ongoing trauma. No doubt none of this shows the young and healthy are at risk ?♂️ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
G STAR RAM Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 4 minutes ago, BIllyD said: Here is a few more stats for you While most seriously-ill men in intensive care were in their 60s, around 15% were in their 50s and 8% in their 40s. A quarter of coronavirus admissions to hospital are people under the age of 55, the head of NHS England has said. Oh and a spreadsheet for you https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2021/02/Covid-Publication-11-02-2021-Supplementary-Data.xlsx Assuming the age distribution is similar to the first wave for hospital admissions c. 60,000 of age 49 and under to have been hospitalised, with nearly 20,000 of those since the 1st of January. About 7,000 of them will have been in ICU. Of those who survived, their chance of coming out with a serious ongoing condition is significant, and many of them have ongoing trauma. No doubt none of this shows the young and healthy are at risk ?♂️ How many of these had no underlying health conditions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Archied Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 13 minutes ago, BIllyD said: Here is a few more stats for you While most seriously-ill men in intensive care were in their 60s, around 15% were in their 50s and 8% in their 40s. A quarter of coronavirus admissions to hospital are people under the age of 55, the head of NHS England has said. Oh and a spreadsheet for you https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2021/02/Covid-Publication-11-02-2021-Supplementary-Data.xlsx Assuming the age distribution is similar to the first wave for hospital admissions c. 60,000 of age 49 and under to have been hospitalised, with nearly 20,000 of those since the 1st of January. About 7,000 of them will have been in ICU. Of those who survived, their chance of coming out with a serious ongoing condition is significant, and many of them have ongoing trauma. No doubt none of this shows the young and healthy are at risk ?♂️ There is a very uncomfortable debate that can’t be avoided , what number of deaths from covid do we have to accept, it’s here , it’s not going away but treatment and vaccines are here too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIllyD Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 9 minutes ago, G STAR RAM said: How many of these had no underlying health conditions? Unfortunately a lot of those with underlying health issues don't make it out of hospital. The figures given are in the main without underlying health issues, ICU slightly different with the percentage being a bit higher. If you want to carry on with the myth it only impacts the elderly and those with underlying health issues, then I don't think there will be anything that changes your mind, no surprise really. 60k admitted since January in this age group, the majority of these not in the priority vaccinated groups, of all those in ICU, 1 in 4 not in these groups...no risk here to the under 50s though ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIllyD Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 5 minutes ago, Archied said: There is a very uncomfortable debate that can’t be avoided , what number of deaths from covid do we have to accept, it’s here , it’s not going away but treatment and vaccines are here too I don't know, not for me to decide. I'm just pointing out that to think this doesn't impact the under 50s is a myth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maxjam Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 7 minutes ago, BIllyD said: 60k admitted since January in this age group, the majority of these not in the priority vaccinated groups, of all those in ICU, 1 in 4 not in these groups...no risk here to the under 50s though ? I have never said there is no risk. I have just argued that by the spring we should end lockdowns. All vulnerable groups will have been vaccinated, the R rate will be well under 1 and the weather will be better - last summer the infection rate remained relatively low until the autumn by which time a significant proportion of the under 50s will have been vaccinated as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maxjam Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 9 minutes ago, BIllyD said: I don't know, not for me to decide. I'm just pointing out that to think this doesn't impact the under 50s is a myth. We are 'happy' with around 10k flu deaths per year. https://www.greenwichccg.nhs.uk/News-Publications/news/Pages/Around-10,000-deaths-are-caused-by-flu-each-year-in-England-and-Wales.aspx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIllyD Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 1 minute ago, maxjam said: I have never said there is no risk. I have just argued that by the spring we should end lockdowns. All vulnerable groups will have been vaccinated, the R rate will be well under 1 and the weather will be better - last summer the infection rate remained relatively low until the autumn by which time a significant proportion of the under 50s will have been vaccinated as well. Not directed at you pal ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sith Happens Posted February 14, 2021 Share Posted February 14, 2021 Just now, maxjam said: We are 'happy' with around 10k flu deaths per year. https://www.greenwichccg.nhs.uk/News-Publications/news/Pages/Around-10,000-deaths-are-caused-by-flu-each-year-in-England-and-Wales.aspx that seems low to me, I thought the average was closer to 20k? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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