Albert Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 7 minutes ago, G STAR RAM said: The young and healthy really arent at much of a risk. Its world shattering if someone gets run over by a car and dies, yet we don't lock people in their houses on this basis. The UK road toll is somewhere around 3.4 deaths per billion km driven, and the average person drives around 16,000 km. The implication is your average motorist has a 1 in ~18,000 chance of dying on the road each year. The CDC in America estimates that the infection fatality rate of Covid-19 in people aged 20-49 years old is 0.02%, this is 1 in 5000. This implies that letting Covid spread through the 'non-vulnerable' part of the population is still more dangerous. Equally, people driving is an actual personal responsibility point, as it's not an infectious disease that continues to spread. You crashing your car isn't going to start an exponential chain of others doing so. Quote In which case we think of a way of protecting these people. To lock down the whole country for a small proportion of people is ridiculous. It's staging the lockdown for everyone. Again, Covid-19, even for young people, is still dangerous. There is still risks of long term health consequences. The virus spreading will still tank the economic activity of the country. Quote Don't agree with this at all. If there is going to be a third/fourth wave it is because the vaccine is not effective and we therefore need to learn to live with the virus. It wouldn't be because 'the vaccine is not effective', it would be because it was opened too soon. That's my whole point. You open up in stages, assuring that the reproduction number is below 1. As to 'learn to live with the virus', as we've seen, it ruins economies one way around another. Learning to live with the virus is learning to live without pubs and live football for the next 3-4 years until the virus becomes endemic. I'm not convinced you'd like that outcome. Quote Livelihoods have, and will continue to be ruined, by extending lockdowns unnecessarily. Just the same as you risk every other drivers life every time you get in your car, you could crash into anyone or knock any pedestrian over and kill them. They've not been extended unnecessarily, you've done nothing to show that current restrictions aren't needed. When you murder a pedestrian, cyclist, or otherwise, that doesn't start an exponential chain of murdering others too. 7 minutes ago, G STAR RAM said: Will be interesting to see how many livelihoods have been saved compared to the ones that have been destroyed. There are a lot of businesses that have closed that will never re-open. The Government is not forced to do anything, it has taken these decisions without the slightest consideration for many small businesses. Do you genuinely believe that these businesses would have survived what has been happening otherwise? As has been seen in the UK and elsewhere, just keeping your doors open in a peak is challenging. I do agree at some level though, the government should have done more to support small businesses. Ideologically though, the Tories were never the party to do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albert Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 16 minutes ago, Wolfie20 said: This thread is becoming more and more bizarre by the day. Is it any wonder the vast majority of posters aren't contributing - I'm sure it's not because of a lack of interest in the topic. What should be one of the most interesting and thought-provoking threads on the forum has degenerated into a farce, with polar extreme, deeply entrenched views contributing virtually nothing constructive to the debate. What's interesting is that I've been accused of having 'extreme' views on here, which is quite frankly odd given that I live in a country controlled by a conservative government, under the thumb of the Murdoch press, and am just advocating for the fact that our methods did indeed work, and the UK demonstrated that they had all the tools to make it work there too. These methods have been recommended in the literature for decades, and which their use has meant that I personally have only spent 4 days in lockdown since April. I personally know 1 person who has had the virus here, as compared to my relatives back in the UK. One of the stifling parts of conversation here is how the very people who claimed there would be no second wave and that we'd already achieved herd immunity, and hence should never lock down again, are the same ones calling it 'over now' and demanding reopening. They baulked at the scientific community criticising the the great Barrington Declaration, they sucked up to anyone who criticised lockdowns, regardless of how loopy they were, regardless of their lack of qualifications. Dr Johnny Bananas was good enough, as long as he said 'lockdowns bad'. It's not about the reality, the data, or otherwise to them. They just want the country to open up, they don't care about the consequences, they don't care that when they called for it previously, all their reasons were entirely incorrect, and the result has been that 60-70,000 people have died, and livelihoods have been destroyed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Archied Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 59 minutes ago, Albert said: It's not about 'punishment', the purpose is saving lives and livelihoods long term. The government is forced to take action to save lives and livelihoods, and such selfish actions have indeed played a part. The reality is that people are in this together, it is the prisoners dilemma, whether you like it or not. The gaoler isn't the government though, it's just cold hard reality. Do not talk rubbish, people are not in this together , your throw away line paints the picture of people al together facing the same and standing together ,, total rubbish ,this whole year has magnified the inequality of people’s lives Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albert Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 14 minutes ago, Archied said: Do not talk rubbish, people are not in this together ...that's the problem, hence the term 'prisoners dilemma'. People are in these together, but they're not acting like it. Seems you've added to this post substantially: 14 minutes ago, Archied said: Do not talk rubbish, people are not in this together , your throw away line paints the picture of people al together facing the same and standing together ,, total rubbish ,this whole year has magnified the inequality of people’s lives I never suggested that there wasn't inequality at play, the prisoners dilemma doesn't suggest equality either, but rather, the opposite. ie people taking advantage of others for their own benefit, costing others. This is exactly what has been happening. Those that just felt they could weather this, and not care about the consequences to other people, have lived very different lives. Billionaires have made a killing. To turn that rage against the government, who are for the first time in the pandemic actually being somewhat competent around current restrictions and the vaccine rollout, however, isn't the right course of action. Personally, I feel the government should have done more to support families and small businesses through this crisis, but ultimately the scale of the damage from their earlier blunders likely made this economically unfeasible without taxing their donors and mates more, which we know just isn't going to happen on an ideological basis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Archied Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 3 minutes ago, Albert said: ...that's the problem, hence the term 'prisoners dilemma'. People are in these together, but they're not acting like it. Seems to me from where I’m standing that those having they’re lives destroyed the least trot out the in this together line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albert Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 7 minutes ago, Archied said: Seems to me from where I’m standing that those having they’re lives destroyed the least trot out the in this together line See edit above. You can say this about me, as Australia followed the recommendations, and achieved an effective state of elimination, which has meant that my life has actually been reasonably normal throughout the last year or so. Again though, as noted, the point about being 'in this together' is more about the fact that it's just how it is. People not treating it that way is what has ruined it for so many. That said, the government could have done far more to take that out of the hands of everyday people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Archied Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 18 minutes ago, Albert said: ...that's the problem, hence the term 'prisoners dilemma'. People are in these together, but they're not acting like it. Seems you've added to this post substantially: I never suggested that there wasn't inequality at play, the prisoners dilemma doesn't suggest equality either, but rather, the opposite. ie people taking advantage of others for their own benefit, costing others. This is exactly what has been happening. Those that just felt they could weather this, and not care about the consequences to other people, have lived very different lives. Billionaires have made a killing. To turn that rage against the government, who are for the first time in the pandemic actually being somewhat competent around current restrictions and the vaccine rollout, however, isn't the right course of action. Personally, I feel the government should have done more to support families and small businesses through this crisis, but ultimately the scale of the damage from their earlier blunders likely made this economically unfeasible without taxing their donors and mates more, which we know just isn't going to happen on an ideological basis. Do me a favour , it’s not all about billionaires and the rest , there’s been far worse from the ordinary people who should know better , at least we know what to expect from the billionaire s, it’s no surprise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIllyD Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 1 hour ago, G STAR RAM said: The young and healthy really arent at much of a risk. Its world shattering if someone gets run over by a car and dies, yet we don't lock people in their houses on this basis. Arent they ? Based on what may I ask ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Archied Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 6 minutes ago, Albert said: See edit above. You can say this about me, as Australia followed the recommendations, and achieved an effective state of elimination, which has meant that my life has actually been reasonably normal throughout the last year or so. Again though, as noted, the point about being 'in this together' is more about the fact that it's just how it is. People not treating it that way is what has ruined it for so many. That said, the government could have done far more to take that out of the hands of everyday people. And there you have it ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Archied Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 2 minutes ago, BIllyD said: Arent they ? Based on what may I ask ? On every stat and number we’ve been fed??♂️ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIllyD Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 9 minutes ago, Archied said: On every stat and number we’ve been fed??♂️ Maybe you looking at the wrong stats then ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Archied Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 12 minutes ago, BIllyD said: Maybe you looking at the wrong stats then ? Really ? Come on , what’s the percentage number of healthy under 50 s who test positive for covid who die or are hospitalised? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eddie Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 26 minutes ago, Archied said: Do me a favour , it’s not all about billionaires and the rest , there’s been far worse from the ordinary people who should know better , at least we know what to expect from the billionaire s, it’s no surprise People should know better, but there seems to be quite a fair few who, even now, think that the rules don't apply to them, given by the number of 'busts' for house parties, raves etc. which are continually being reported in the press. You would think that a £10,000 fine would be a deterrent, but apparently not. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-56053229 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIllyD Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 1 minute ago, Archied said: Really ? Come on , what’s the percentage number of healthy under 50 s who test positive for covid who die or are hospitalised? Most ICU patients are under 60, I suppose it depends on what you attribute as being young I suppose ? You are constantly talking about empathy and how those who believe the lockdown should be in place as being the ones that benefit from it, but I can assure you it's not the case. Some of us are being impacted daily by this, believe it or not, it's not just you and G Star, its just that some of us believe that there are other considerations that need to be taken into account. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maxjam Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 13 minutes ago, BIllyD said: Most ICU patients are under 60, I suppose it depends on what you attribute as being young I suppose ? The average is is 60.2 according to this article; https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55586994 but that is in part due to younger patients responding better to being in ICU and therefore prioritised over older patients. The under 55s only make up around 25% of all covid hospitalizations according to this article; https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/11/quarter-covid-hospital-admissions-england-aged-under-55-simon-stevens Deaths by age within 28 days of a positive covid test can be found here; https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths?areaType=nation%26areaName=England#card-deaths_within_28_days_of_positive_test_by_date_of_death_age_demographics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIllyD Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 5 minutes ago, maxjam said: The average is is 60.2 according to this article; https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55586994 but that is in part due to younger patients responding better to being in ICU and therefore prioritised over older patients. The under 55s only make up around 25% of all covid hospitalizations according to this article; https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/11/quarter-covid-hospital-admissions-england-aged-under-55-simon-stevens Deaths by age within 28 days of a positive covid test can be found here; https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths?areaType=nation%26areaName=England#card-deaths_within_28_days_of_positive_test_by_date_of_death_age_demographics Sorry I was 0.2 years out ?. The point being that this is not a virus that just impacts the old and vulnerable, 1 in 4 that are in the ICU arent in the priority groups for being vaccinated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maxjam Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 1 minute ago, BIllyD said: Sorry I was 0.2 years out ?. The point being that this is not a virus that just impacts the old and vulnerable, 1 in 4 that are in the ICU arent in the priority groups for being vaccinated. The Govt hopes to have everyone over 50 vaccinated by May - the 25% quoted being admitted were under 55, so a signifcant number of those will be over 50. As discussed, the R rate is also now under 1, assuming we stay in lockdown until Easter it should in theory be even lower. Covid rates also dropped off remained relatively low during last years warmer months giving us plenty of time to start vaccinating the under 50s. IMO, currently there is no reason to stay locked down beyond the Spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Archied Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 36 minutes ago, BIllyD said: Most ICU patients are under 60, I suppose it depends on what you attribute as being young I suppose ? You are constantly talking about empathy and how those who believe the lockdown should be in place as being the ones that benefit from it, but I can assure you it's not the case. Some of us are being impacted daily by this, believe it or not, it's not just you and G Star, its just that some of us believe that there are other considerations that need to be taken into account. How many times do I need to say it ? I’m extremely lucky in relative terms through this , heres one for the adverts can I look someone in the eye whose lost they’re business, job ,livelihood and say we are all in this together ? when I sit in my garden with my family can I look a parent or single person in the eye as they are locked indoors in a flat with they’re kids or isolated alone and tell them ,we are all in this together? Lap tops for kids ?, how many poor even have semi decent broadband? I could go on with more examples but the bottom line is I do not want anybody to have they’re lives destroyed a minute longer to cut the risk of me catching covid, if anybody wants to tell me they only order what they need rather than what they want so others risked are minimised and they don’t use they’re garden as they want us all to be in it together and a whole host of other stuff then I will tip my hat to them and show the respect that deserves but that’s not what I’m seeing and hearing I’m hearing the work from homes happy to be saving on travel costs , perhaps tax relief or more expenses too , I’m hearing the special home beer deliveries roll whilst anybody who may think pubs should be allowed to operate covid safe is one totally selfish villain ?,the list could go on and on anybody sitting in a decent position and claiming we are all in this together is the height of selfishness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Archied Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 38 minutes ago, Eddie said: People should know better, but there seems to be quite a fair few who, even now, think that the rules don't apply to them, given by the number of 'busts' for house parties, raves etc. which are continually being reported in the press. You would think that a £10,000 fine would be a deterrent, but apparently not. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-56053229 Would rather you kept me on ignore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIllyD Posted February 13, 2021 Share Posted February 13, 2021 1 minute ago, maxjam said: The Govt hopes to have everyone over 50 vaccinated by May - the 25% quoted being admitted were under 55, so a signifcant number of those will be over 50. As discussed, the R rate is also now under 1, assuming we stay in lockdown until Easter it should in theory be even lower. Covid rates also dropped off remained relatively low during last years warmer months giving us plenty of time to start vaccinating the under 50s. IMO, currently there is no reason to stay locked down beyond the Spring. All major stats are down, ICU though is the one that the government will monitor as this is one of the key KPIs. It won't stop them from reducing restrictions - but they WILL be watching this metric like a hawk. The number in ICU will govern how far they release restrictions and the pace of release. There is no doubt restrictions will be lifted, but as I alluded to earlier those who refuse the vaccine could have a big impact on how far these go. Interesting that on this thread if you feel that the lockdowns have been justified you don't care about anyone else and are responsible for letting the government get away with it, refuse the vaccine though and that's your right and your managing your own risk and not having an impact on the lockdowns ?♂️ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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