Coronavirus

[G STAR RAM]

1 hour ago, GboroRam said:

That's why our muddled, confused approach didn't work. No real clarity. Even now its confused. Is it eat out to help out or drink up and duck off? 

Made even worse by people, for some inexplicable reason, pretending not to understand very simple instructions.

[Albert]

32 minutes ago, maxjam said:

The first confirmed covid case in Australia was late Jan, the same time as the UK.  As noted, we were screening flights from Wuhan but lacked the capacity to screen literally millions of people arriving from what turned out to be the 5 of the top 10 covid hotspots in the world.

The case was confirmed about 6 days prior to the UK's first case, and they'd arrived earlier than that. 

32 minutes ago, maxjam said:

As noted, the UK had significantly more, millions more, prior to the pandemic from what turned out to be 5 of the top 10 covid hotspots in the world.  Covid didn't just magically travel to those countries and remain there, it continued to move around the world.

Also as noted the difference in the number of passengers travelling from China to Australia was tiny in comparison to the number of passengers we received from hotspot countries.

Hot spot countries that became so later on...

32 minutes ago, maxjam said:

I am talking about the period from Jan - Mar, a point in time when we were screening flights from China but didn't have the infrastructure to test the millions of people arriving from the not 'largely irrelevant' EU and US hotspots.

Australia may have handled covid more effectively but in terms of travel alone has significantly less to deal with than the UK and therefore better placed to begin with.

The EU and US were not 'hotspots' at that time. 

The big concerns early in the pandemic were China and Iran, with Italy, etc only joining that list later. Australia shut down travel to each in turn as it became apparent. What you're trying to argue here is in essence that it's okay the UK spunked their lead by lacking caution at a key period of time. 

32 minutes ago, maxjam said:

I could go on with the rest of your post debating population densities, international hubs, shutting down our service driven economy, etc but as noted, you seem to enjoy dismissing critical factors that don't fit your narrative.  You seem to be stuck in your narrative as do I, so its better left.  Continuing this conversation any further will simply result in it becoming tedious and annoying other readers of this thread.

No 'critical factors' have been dismissed, and each has been discussed in turn. If you feel something has been 'dismissed' without reason, show where. 

[EtoileSportiveDeDerby]

500 pages in to a thread started on 26th of Feb, time to reflect. Lots of interesting points, counter arguments, funny, crazy, sad posts,graphs, more graphs but I wonder if there has ever been a thread which has covered and is still covering something as monumental affecting us all as this topic. On a personal level when I posted the 3rd post little did i know that my life would be turned upside down by COVID but I am convinced One day life will get back to normal, not a "new normal". How long that might be, now that is the question.

[ariotofmyown]

12 minutes ago, G STAR RAM said:

Made even worse by people, for some inexplicable reason, pretending not to understand very simple instructions.

Like if your wife develops clear Covid symptoms, don't go back into work before then driving a couple of 100 miles to a different house to isolate, well until the symptoms become so severe you have to drive to a local hospital and risk spreading to a different area.

Lots of clear rule breaking, but also the heads up that the rules don't really matter.

Us freedom loving Brits don't care anyway. Freedom!!

[maxjam]

1 minute ago, Albert said:

The case was confirmed about 6 days prior to the UK's first case, and they'd arrived earlier than that.

Yep, first confrimed cases are approx a week apart, but it is widely accepted that the virus was in the country (both countries) well before the first recorded death

https://metro.co.uk/2020/04/19/first-case-coronavirus-uk-covid-19-diagnosis-12578061/

And the first confirmed case in Europe (Paris) was Dec 27th

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/01/spate-of-possible-uk-coronavirus-cases-from-2019-come-to-light

news emerged that a swab taken from a man treated in a hospital near Paris on 27 December for suspected pneumonia tested positive for Covid-19, raising the prospect that the virus arrived in Europe a month earlier than previously thought.

Luckily we're not a global hub or anything else recorded cases in Paris around Christmas would be concerning...

 

7 minutes ago, Albert said:

The EU and US were not 'hotspots' at that time.

The EU and US were not 'hotspots' at that time. 

Geez, they didn't simply burst into hotspots and instantly lockdown the virus was spreading throughout the world.  See The Guardian link in my reply above.

 

9 minutes ago, Albert said:

The big concerns early in the pandemic were China and Iran, with Italy, etc only joining that list later. Australia shut down travel to each in turn as it became apparent. What you're trying to argue here is in essence that it's okay the UK spunked their lead by lacking caution at a key period of time. . 

No, I'm saying that we we're screening the relatively small number flights from China but it was impossible to screen people arriving from the EU.  Italy is a popular skiiing destination for Brits, not only do we fly there but people go by train, boat and car.  We are closely tied to EU countries and barring a total lockdown (which happened arguably a few weeks late) had no one of preventing the virus entering the UK.

 

18 minutes ago, Albert said:

No 'critical factors' have been dismissed, and each has been discussed in turn. If you feel something has been 'dismissed' without reason, show where. 

Discussed and dismissed - case in point the UK hotspot countries that according to you didn't become hotspot countries until later. I've posted this link several times to silence which shows that the UK received almost all of its infections from the EU almost certainly because the virus was already prevalent in those countries before they became classified as hotspots.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52993734

Coronavirus was brought into the UK on at least 1,300 separate occasions, a major analysis of the genetics of the virus shows.

The analysis also finds China, where the pandemic started, had a negligible impact on cases in the UK.

 

Again, we're repeating the same points, the discussion is not going anywhere it is better left.

 

[Albert]

4 minutes ago, maxjam said:

Yep, first confrimed cases are approx a week apart, but it is widely accepted that the virus was in the country (both countries) well before the first recorded death

https://metro.co.uk/2020/04/19/first-case-coronavirus-uk-covid-19-diagnosis-12578061/

And the first confirmed case in Europe (Paris) was Dec 27th

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/01/spate-of-possible-uk-coronavirus-cases-from-2019-come-to-light

news emerged that a swab taken from a man treated in a hospital near Paris on 27 December for suspected pneumonia tested positive for Covid-19, raising the prospect that the virus arrived in Europe a month earlier than previously thought.

Luckily we're not a global hub or anything else recorded cases in Paris around Christmas would be concerning...

Except the rate of cases in those areas were low enough that the concern would less be it being transmitted from there, but rather it spreading silently through those communities. This is because, statistically, the fraction of people travelling outside their own country is low enough that the likelihood of picking it up from a small number of cases is minimal. 

It is interesting to watch your argument metamorphise into 'Europe was the real epicentre all along' though. 

4 minutes ago, maxjam said:

Geez, they didn't simply burst into hotspots and instantly lockdown the virus was spreading throughout the world.  See The Guardian link in my reply above.

I know it was spreading throughout the World, but countries with large, detectable, outbreaks are, for the reason noted above, the ones where restrictions on travel will be the most effective. 

4 minutes ago, maxjam said:

No, I'm saying that we we're screening the relatively small number flights from China but it was impossible to screen people arriving from the EU.  Italy is a popular skiiing destination for Brits, not only do we fly there but people go by train, boat and car.  We are closely tied to EU countries and barring a total lockdown (which happened arguably a few weeks late) had no one of preventing the virus entering the UK.

Which implies that the UK acted too late. 

4 minutes ago, maxjam said:

Discussed and dismissed - case in point the UK hotspot countries that according to you didn't become hotspot countries until later. I've posted this link several times to silence which shows that the UK received almost all of its infections from the EU almost certainly because the virus was already prevalent in those countries before they became classified as hotspots.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52993734

Coronavirus was brought into the UK on at least 1,300 separate occasions, a major analysis of the genetics of the virus shows.

The analysis also finds China, where the pandemic started, had a negligible impact on cases in the UK.

It's interesting that we keep going back and forth on this source, given that it doesn't exclusively support your point. As noted, this is the result you expect, given my argument. 

At no point did I suggest that there was no Covid in Europe earlier, but those countries did not become hotspots as they did until later. This is consistent with the UK having their first wave later than Australia, which was being driven by cases from East Asia. 

4 minutes ago, maxjam said:

Again, we're repeating the same points, the discussion is not going anywhere it is better left.

 

If that's what you feel. 

[maxjam]

1 minute ago, Albert said:

 If that's what you feel. 

To quote Captain America, 'I can do this all day'.

I have a strong feeling that the rest of the forum want us to stop however!

[Eddie]

2 hours ago, maxjam said:

Agreed - and its one of my more nebulous 'other factors' that some people seem to want to ignore.  Some countries populations are more compliant than others and more willing to follow Government edicts.

Ah, the 'proud' independence and rebellion of the 'misguided' masses in England.

You reap what you sow - or 'play stupid games, win stupid prizes'.

[Gaspode]

57 minutes ago, maxjam said:

To quote Captain America, 'I can do this all day'.

I have a strong feeling that the rest of the forum want us to stop however!

To be honest, most of us have stopped reading this topic since it bacame a personal pissing competition between some posters.....

[maxjam]

9 minutes ago, Gaspode said:

To be honest, most of us have stopped reading this topic since it bacame a personal pissing competition between some posters.....

Yup, I apologise for my part in that ?

[Cardinal]

Been reading this thread with much interest for a while now. 

The thing that gets me is the amount of fear that is being generated by the government and the media. 

The graph shown by Vallance and Whitty is a prime example of this. I'm not interested if it was a projection, a prediction or a guess. What it did was freak people out thinking we were going to be getting 50k cases per day. Whether or not they believed they would happen is irrelevant. Its driven more fear into an already concerned group of people. 

I find it interesting that we are finding it so hard to control. Correct me if I am wrong but simple soap and water kills the virus. 

I have gone about my business as much as I can. Been on holiday to Turkey, been shopping numerous times, been out for dinner, been to the pub, been to friends and neighbours house, been to two theme parks. I don't have it and never have had it. I wash my hands regularly or use hand sanatiser. Has this protected me or have I been lucky and not come into contact with it. I don't know. 

I wonder if we reported similar things on the scale of covid would we change our behaviour like we are being asked to do now. Would it generate the same amount of fear. If they reported every hospitalisation and death from flu every year would we be worried about catching it or have to lockdown for it. If they reported every injury and death from road accidents would we get in a car? 

For me its all about risk. If you are OK taking the "risk" of catching covid then you should be allowed to go about your business. You can take the precautions you want to, eg. wash your hands. If you are worried about catching it then stay indoors, isolate, do whatever you feel is best for you. 

[Albert]

6 minutes ago, Cardinal said:

Been reading this thread with much interest for a while now. 

The thing that gets me is the amount of fear that is being generated by the government and the media. 

The graph shown by Vallance and Whitty is a prime example of this. I'm not interested if it was a projection, a prediction or a guess. What it did was freak people out thinking we were going to be getting 50k cases per day. Whether or not they believed they would happen is irrelevant. Its driven more fear into an already concerned group of people. 

I find it interesting that we are finding it so hard to control. Correct me if I am wrong but simple soap and water kills the virus. 

I have gone about my business as much as I can. Been on holiday to Turkey, been shopping numerous times, been out for dinner, been to the pub, been to friends and neighbours house, been to two theme parks. I don't have it and never have had it. I wash my hands regularly or use hand sanatiser. Has this protected me or have I been lucky and not come into contact with it. I don't know. 

I wonder if we reported similar things on the scale of covid would we change our behaviour like we are being asked to do now. Would it generate the same amount of fear. If they reported every hospitalisation and death from flu every year would we be worried about catching it or have to lockdown for it. If they reported every injury and death from road accidents would we get in a car? 

For me its all about risk. If you are OK taking the "risk" of catching covid then you should be allowed to go about your business. You can take the precautions you want to, eg. wash your hands. If you are worried about catching it then stay indoors, isolate, do whatever you feel is best for you. 

The problem is, at its core, that when people catch it, they can pass it in. What you're advocating for is allowing the virus to burn through the population. 

As to reporting similar for other diseases, you can look into the numbers if you wish. This is already a lot worse than 'a bad flu season', and it's been through no where near the same fraction of the population. Deaths per year for influenza in the UK is of the order of hundreds, ~300 last year. This disease is already at 40,000+ in the UK alone, despite attempts to control the spread. As to the number of hospital admissions for influenza, it's usually around ~3000 across the UK. There's been more for this disease in the last fortnight. 

The road toll for the UK was 1,870 last year, so again, no where this disease. 

[Wolfie20]

24 minutes ago, Cardinal said:

Been reading this thread with much interest for a while now. 

The thing that gets me is the amount of fear that is being generated by the government and the media. 

The graph shown by Vallance and Whitty is a prime example of this. I'm not interested if it was a projection, a prediction or a guess. What it did was freak people out thinking we were going to be getting 50k cases per day. Whether or not they believed they would happen is irrelevant. Its driven more fear into an already concerned group of people. 

I find it interesting that we are finding it so hard to control. Correct me if I am wrong but simple soap and water kills the virus. 

I have gone about my business as much as I can. Been on holiday to Turkey, been shopping numerous times, been out for dinner, been to the pub, been to friends and neighbours house, been to two theme parks. I don't have it and never have had it. I wash my hands regularly or use hand sanatiser. Has this protected me or have I been lucky and not come into contact with it. I don't know. 

I wonder if we reported similar things on the scale of covid would we change our behaviour like we are being asked to do now. Would it generate the same amount of fear. If they reported every hospitalisation and death from flu every year would we be worried about catching it or have to lockdown for it. If they reported every injury and death from road accidents would we get in a car? 

For me its all about risk. If you are OK taking the "risk" of catching covid then you should be allowed to go about your business. You can take the precautions you want to, eg. wash your hands. If you are worried about catching it then stay indoors, isolate, do whatever you feel is best for you. 

But it isn't just about whether you are prepared to take a risk of catching it. What about catching it, not knowing for days that it has happened then passing it on to heaven knows how many others in the meantime?

The government have made serious errors since the early days of Covid and continue to do so but they've not been helped by the totally selfish, stupid and naive attitude of a small part of the population.

[Cardinal]

39 minutes ago, Albert said:

The problem is, at its core, that when people catch it, they can pass it in. What you're advocating for is allowing the virus to burn through the population. 

As to reporting similar for other diseases, you can look into the numbers if you wish. This is already a lot worse than 'a bad flu season', and it's been through no where near the same fraction of the population. Deaths per year for influenza in the UK is of the order of hundreds, ~300 last year. This disease is already at 40,000+ in the UK alone, despite attempts to control the spread. As to the number of hospital admissions for influenza, it's usually around ~3000 across the UK. There's been more for this disease in the last fortnight. 

The road toll for the UK was 1,870 last year, so again, no where this disease. 

To be fair I never said I want it to burn through the population. I am questioning how it is spreading so much when all you need is soap and water to kill it! As I say I have managed to go about as much as I normally can and haven't caught it. 

I wasn't comparing the severity of it to other diseases either. Again just questioning if we reported other figures on a daily basis while driving fear into the population around those said figures would we be require to change behaviour? 

[GboroRam]

2 minutes ago, Cardinal said:

To be fair I never said I want it to burn through the population. I am questioning how it is spreading so much when all you need is soap and water to kill it! As I say I have managed to go about as much as I normally can and haven't caught it. 

I wasn't comparing the severity of it to other diseases either. Again just questioning if we reported other figures on a daily basis while driving fear into the population around those said figures would we be require to change behaviour? 

Washing hands is clearly important, but it isn't the answer on its own. We've seen big numbers of infections in food production, where people have to wash in and out of the plant. It's only one part of the solution. 

[Cardinal]

27 minutes ago, Wolfie20 said:

But it isn't just about whether you are prepared to take a risk of catching it. What about catching it, not knowing for days that it has happened then passing it on to heaven knows how many others in the meantime?

The government have made serious errors since the early days of Covid and continue to do so but they've not been helped by the totally selfish, stupid and naive attitude of a small part of the population.

Completely agree that there have been serious errors made. 

I just find it interesting that all that we need to do to kill it is wash our hands with soap. If everyone did this surely it would stop the virus. A much better option than locking down the country. 

I get that it's unfortunately not that simple. 

[G STAR RAM]

3 hours ago, ariotofmyown said:

Like if your wife develops clear Covid symptoms, don't go back into work before then driving a couple of 100 miles to a different house to isolate, well until the symptoms become so severe you have to drive to a local hospital and risk spreading to a different area.

Lots of clear rule breaking, but also the heads up that the rules don't really matter.

Us freedom loving Brits don't care anyway. Freedom!!

Or going to a dinner party with 8 people after you have been advised not to socialise in groups of more than 6.

[GboroRam]

28 minutes ago, G STAR RAM said:

Or going to a dinner party with 8 people after you have been advised not to socialise in groups of more than 6.

Yup, that's the behaviour of an idiot, can't bring myself to say misguided. Whether it's getting on a tube after being tested positive, or shaking hands in a covid ward, or driving to Barnard Castle, we know our supposed leaders are paying lip service to the rules. Is it a surprise when the public don't follow them? 

[ariotofmyown]

1 hour ago, G STAR RAM said:

Or going to a dinner party with 8 people after you have been advised not to socialise in groups of more than 6.

Yeah, I think Corbyn was stupid for doing that too. However, it was far less riskier that what Cummings did and he was just mainly endangering the other idiots at the dinner party.

Breaking rules when no one has symptoms is stupid. Breaking rules when your household has already displayed serious symptoms is unforgivable.

Having a wife who used her position to lie about your actions is terrible.

Telling people they can see your phone records to prove you didn't repeat your rule breaking journey, then not letting anyone see said records suggests you are lying. Again.

Editing your blog posts to pretend that you had previously warned of the dangers of such pandemics to help shift opinion on your actions is highly deceitful.

Taking a child on a long car journey with another adult who has severe symptoms is borderline cruelty.

Taking a child on car drive to check your eye sight is ok to drive (!) is worse than going out for a trip to get some fresh air.

Doing all this whilst you are one of the key public figures responsible for managing the outbreak of a deadly pandemic is shocking. And escaping any sort of censure shows how pathetic our system has become.

 

 

[1of4]

3 hours ago, Cardinal said:

Been reading this thread with much interest for a while now. 

The thing that gets me is the amount of fear that is being generated by the government and the media. 

The graph shown by Vallance and Whitty is a prime example of this. I'm not interested if it was a projection, a prediction or a guess. What it did was freak people out thinking we were going to be getting 50k cases per day. Whether or not they believed they would happen is irrelevant. Its driven more fear into an already concerned group of people. 

I find it interesting that we are finding it so hard to control. Correct me if I am wrong but simple soap and water kills the virus. 

I have gone about my business as much as I can. Been on holiday to Turkey, been shopping numerous times, been out for dinner, been to the pub, been to friends and neighbours house, been to two theme parks. I don't have it and never have had it. I wash my hands regularly or use hand sanatiser. Has this protected me or have I been lucky and not come into contact with it. I don't know. 

I wonder if we reported similar things on the scale of covid would we change our behaviour like we are being asked to do now. Would it generate the same amount of fear. If they reported every hospitalisation and death from flu every year would we be worried about catching it or have to lockdown for it. If they reported every injury and death from road accidents would we get in a car? 

For me its all about risk. If you are OK taking the "risk" of catching covid then you should be allowed to go about your business. You can take the precautions you want to, eg. wash your hands. If you are worried about catching it then stay indoors, isolate, do whatever you feel is best for you. 

Glad to hear you've not contracted the virus while happily going about you normal day to day life.

Whether that is down to good judgement or luck on your part, we will never know. 

What as more than likely had a major factor in you not catching the virus. Is the many people you may have come into contact with, Who have followed the rules of safe distancing and mask wearing, while also washing their hands.