Uptherams Posted September 30, 2020 Share Posted September 30, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stive Pesley Posted September 30, 2020 Share Posted September 30, 2020 11 hours ago, jimmyp said: It wouldn’t be a waste of your time. You would learn how a PCR test works and how we use them today. You may well then question your current source for information on PCR testing. I think we know what Mostyn's source of info was (it was discussed yesterday). The source is an ardent anti-vaxxer, so he was never going to amplify any new sources to his followers that said "actually the test is a gold standard". They want to hear the sensationalist view that makes it sound like everything is wrong and we should rise up and stop being sheeple etc I usually look at fullfact.org in this situations https://fullfact.org/health/coronavirus-pcr-test-accuracy/ But now someone is going to tell me that fullfact.org is a zionist front for George Soros and Bill Gates love childs evil master plan? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albert Posted September 30, 2020 Share Posted September 30, 2020 27 minutes ago, Uptherams said: Not really sure what you're trying to demonstrate with this. There is a clear upward trend, with the expected usual statistical noise. Taking the overall trend, there was a large spike from ~200 up to 314, which means that return to the standard growth gets masked. Consider below: We can also look at the log plot, as that's the one you should be interested in for exponential growth: This one is indeed lower than you'd expect for those few days, but not unreasonably so. The next week or so will be telling in regard to whether controls etc have worked to reducing rate of hospitalisation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eddie Posted September 30, 2020 Share Posted September 30, 2020 39 minutes ago, SchtivePesley said: But now someone is going to tell me that fullfact.org is a zionist front for George Soros and Bill Gates love childs evil master plan? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uptherams Posted September 30, 2020 Share Posted September 30, 2020 You can't even post facts without it being an issue here ? It's a chart. I offered no comment and don't intend to. ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ghost of Clough Posted September 30, 2020 Share Posted September 30, 2020 3 hours ago, TexasRam said: I was told this in this forum a month ago, it’s hasn’t happened, I was told the same again two weeks ago, it has happened. Too many internet scientists scaremongering and creating mass hysteria. Shell announcing 9000 job losses today, that’s what we should be scared off, the wheels are coming off, but as long as the >.007% are ok ?? Where does your 0.007% figure come from? A (potentially) worst-case scenario of letting it run through the entire population is said to result in about 500,000 deaths, which would be 0.7% of the population Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ghost of Clough Posted September 30, 2020 Share Posted September 30, 2020 Someone mentioned the long-lasting effects of Covid. Although not Covid itself, it’s worth a read... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gone Posted September 30, 2020 Share Posted September 30, 2020 7 minutes ago, Ghost of Clough said: Where does your 0.007% figure come from? A (potentially) worst-case scenario of letting it run through the entire population is said to result in about 500,000 deaths, which would be 0.7% of the population Well re do the maths with reality not a scaremongering worst case scenario and bingo you get what we have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gone Posted September 30, 2020 Share Posted September 30, 2020 5 minutes ago, Ghost of Clough said: Someone mentioned the long-lasting effects of Covid. Although not Covid itself, it’s worth a read... You don’t want to get AIDS, TB or a bad case of the flu either. However we don’t report daily numbers or shut down complete societies for those diseases Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albert Posted September 30, 2020 Share Posted September 30, 2020 18 minutes ago, Uptherams said: You can't even post facts without it being an issue here ? It's a chart. I offered no comment and don't intend to. ? You're not just posting a chart though, you're posting a chart with a weird, non-justified polynomial fit to suggest a downward trend. I would hope you're sharp enough to realise what you're doing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gone Posted September 30, 2020 Share Posted September 30, 2020 2 minutes ago, Albert said: You're not just posting a chart though, you're posting a chart with a weird, non-justified polynomial fit to suggest a downward trend. I would hope you're sharp enough to realise what you're doing. It’s trending down, it shows its trending down. You can put what data you want into minitab and try and disprove it, however the last 4 data points (ok not a good statistical reference agreed) are showing a downward trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GboroRam Posted September 30, 2020 Share Posted September 30, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albert Posted September 30, 2020 Share Posted September 30, 2020 6 minutes ago, TexasRam said: You don’t want to get AIDS, TB or a bad case of the flu either. However we don’t report daily numbers or shut down complete societies for those diseases It's baffling that this is still anybody's line of reasoning this deep into it. The reason daily numbers get posted is because when they get out of control, they do indeed overwhelm healthcare systems, which is the worst case scenario on many fronts. Not only would this prevent there being treatment for many with the disease, but the resources used would stop others getting needed treatments for other conditions. The disease is also extremely contagious, particularly for something with its infection fatality rate. A disease that can potentially wipe out 0.5-1.0% of your population should set off alarm bells. AIDS, TB, etc are not that contagious, and not as immediately lethal, while the flu is no where near that lethal, nor does it usually have the side effects that are being studied at the moment. Equally, our understanding of the disease is still developing. There are very real concerns of it damaging other organs, and even in individuals that were not hospitalised. Finally, society is being brought to a standstill by the disease regardless of if governments choose to do lockdowns, restrictions, etc or not. It's either doing it in a controlled manner, or it happening on its own when the healthcare systems collapse. There's a reason no country has gone for a 'just let it happen' approach. More importantly though, lockdowns should always be part of a larger strategy, and countries that have successfully done such has seen the rewards, which is why there are parts of the planet that are now virtually Covid free, where life is indeed going on. If your actual concern is for the World to go back to somewhat normal, if you actual concern is for people who have lost their livelihoods, should be screaming from the rooftops for harsh lockdowns here and now, with the caveat that they are part of a strategy to reach the same point those other countries have reached. Rolling lockdowns and restrictions will only prolong what we are seeing, hoping, praying, for a vaccine. Where the lockdowns have been successful though, it's still not nice for the rest of the World to be at a standstill, but life is very much going on. 9 minutes ago, TexasRam said: Well re do the maths with reality not a scaremongering worst case scenario and bingo you get what we have. So, you made the number up with no basis; got it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gone Posted September 30, 2020 Share Posted September 30, 2020 6 minutes ago, Albert said: So, you made the number up with no basis; got it. No basis? Come on. Numbers of deaths/population that’s the basis. Simple stuff and based on actual not a forecast (which where it is being used is proving to be astronomically wrong) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gone Posted September 30, 2020 Share Posted September 30, 2020 3 minutes ago, Albert said: TB, etc are not that contagious Killed 1.5m last year globally even with inoculations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ghost of Clough Posted September 30, 2020 Share Posted September 30, 2020 28 minutes ago, TexasRam said: Well re do the maths with reality not a scaremongering worst case scenario and bingo you get what we have. The 50,000 already dead equates to 0.07% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albert Posted September 30, 2020 Share Posted September 30, 2020 3 minutes ago, TexasRam said: It’s trending down, it shows its trending down. You can put what data you want into minitab and try and disprove it, however the last 4 data points (ok not a good statistical reference agreed) are showing a downward trend. It's a handful of days, after a sudden spike. That's not evidence of 'trending down', it's local behaviour of a system with random noise. You'd want at least a week of such to call it any kind of trend. Equally, it's interesting how your aim seems to be to obfuscate points by cherry picking data you like, rather than discussing all in bulk. Yesterday was the deadliest day in the UK for a while from the disease, and the 7 day average is indeed trending up as would be expected from the rise in cases. The only real difference now seems to be that this time the UK is getting a fuller picture of all the cases, rather than missing so many as they appeared to in the first wave. Let's just hope enough is being done to arrest this pattern before long. The interesting one to watch for your comments though is deaths per week over the coming weeks. If you're right, there will be no observed rise from here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stive Pesley Posted September 30, 2020 Share Posted September 30, 2020 13 minutes ago, TexasRam said: Killed 1.5m last year globally even with inoculations. TB is an interesting one, I think the majority of those deaths are in third world countries with poor health care But in the rest of the world, it's a good example of an infectious disease that can be deadly - but is largely controlled because there is widespread inoculation and indeed a cure/treatment for it Not until we have a better understanding of Covid-19, vaccines and effective treatments - will it become just another infectious deadly disease that we can live a normal life around All this petty bickering about what random stats do/don't mean is just a sideshow to entertain ourselves in the meantime Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gone Posted September 30, 2020 Share Posted September 30, 2020 3 minutes ago, SchtivePesley said: ll this petty bickering about what random stats do/don't mean is just a sideshow to entertain ourselves in the meantime Absolutely and I think you’re loving it as much as me ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albert Posted September 30, 2020 Share Posted September 30, 2020 9 minutes ago, TexasRam said: Killed 1.5m last year globally even with inoculations. The issue is the lack of inoculations and treatment... weird thing to bring up. Ironically, if TB were more contagious, and behaved more like Covid-19, it'd have been eradicated long ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.