Coronavirus

[Uptherams]

Almost 500 excess deaths per week that aren't Covid, isn't dried up. Even at these levels that's 26,000 excess deaths in a year.  

Not accounting for how in April weekly excess deaths, minus Covid, were almost 8X that. 

If 500 people a week dying because of Covid is extremely bad then 500 people dying a week, in excess of the 5 year average and Covid, is at the very least worrying. 

[Albert]

1 minute ago, Uptherams said:

Almost 500 excess deaths per week that aren't Covid, isn't dried up. Even at these levels that's 26,000 excess deaths in a year.  

Not accounting for how in April weekly excess deaths, minus Covid, were almost 8X that. 

If 500 people a week dying because of Covid is extremely bad then 500 people dying a week, in excess of the 5 year average and Covid, is at the very least worrying. 

You're starting from the assumption that they aren't Covid, which you don't have the data to suggest. 

As noted, all the excess deaths you are noting there trended with the Covid deaths, and have been noted in multiple studies as evidence that the UK's official figure is an underestimate. This is in line with what has been seen elsewhere as well. 

It's bafflingly that you continue to push the line, without answering the key issue with it, that's been raised from the start. This suggests you know the line of reasoning you're pushing is false, but know that going with any other tactic isn't helping you anymore, so you just figure you'll roll with it. 

[maxjam]

28 minutes ago, Albert said:

...I did read the article. The only 'evidence' it presented was the same figure for excess deaths, which is simply not consistent with the conclusion they try and draw, but is consistent with underestimates of covid deaths, which is consistent with the effect seen elsewhere.

I've tried to source the original report, but have had issues finding a copy. Do you happen to have access to it?

Can't find it on the ONS website, there is lots of info on there including covid's impact on suicide rates for example which won't be known until next year.

This Guardian article has a bit more info though;

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/sep/02/pandemic-may-have-hastened-non-covid-deaths-in-england-and-wales

[maxjam]

19 minutes ago, Uptherams said:

Almost 500 excess deaths per week that aren't Covid, isn't dried up. Even at these levels that's 26,000 excess deaths in a year.  

Not accounting for how in April weekly excess deaths, minus Covid, were almost 8X that. 

If 500 people a week dying because of Covid is extremely bad then 500 people dying a week, in excess of the 5 year average and Covid, is at the very least worrying. 

I think a lot of it boils down to appearance.

If 500ppl a week die from covid and the Government has appeared to do nothing, they will get slaughtered.

If 500ppl a week die from non-covid illnesses as a result of lockdown restrictions its far more difficult to absolutely lay blame.

Having daily stats and news briefings for covid infections/deaths compared to ifs, buts and maybes for non-covid excess deaths has led to continuing heavy handed lockdowns.

[Uptherams]

Starting with the assumption they are with Covid actually. You either can't read or are bad at statistics. 

10,000 people die.

100 are registered as Covid

2000 in excess of 5 year average

2000-100 = 1900 excess deaths, not registered as Covid. 

Some people aren't dying and being tested for Covid. That's because they get lost at sea. Actual things that are statistically insignificant. Almost every single person that dies is being tested for Covid. 

 

 

[Uptherams]

3 minutes ago, maxjam said:

I think a lot of it boils down to appearance.

If 500ppl a week die from covid and the Government has appeared to do nothing, they will get slaughtered.

If 500ppl a week die from non-covid illnesses as a result of lockdown restrictions its far more difficult to absolutely lay blame.

Having daily stats and news briefings for covid infections/deaths compared to ifs, buts and maybes for non-covid excess deaths has led to continuing heavy handed lockdowns.

I agree. My reply  below when the usual doom merchants implied I believed some obscene conspiracy theory.

 

Fear.

Those accountable have lost all perspective. The only metrics they care about right now relate to Covid. It's like how you have a wartime Prime minister and a peacetime Prime minister. Completely different mindsets, priorities, etc. 

They must assume as much control as possible because they fear the backlash they face for Covid deaths. They believe the more control they have the more deaths they can prevent and less people can accuse them of not doing enough.

Much of the media and many of the public don't tolerate any deaths. Utterly hysterical. If the UK took a completely different approach to say France and we ended up with just 1000 more deaths this year, many people wouldn't behave rationally. They'd see that as a huge failure and how those accountable should be shamed publicly in the streets. Ridiculous. 

The cabinet and Sage are in the bunker. Still drawing up plans. Ignoring what is happening outside of the bunker. The war is already over. 

Is there some grand conspiracy? As I highlighted, no. They are driven and motivated by fear. 

[Stive Pesley]

39 minutes ago, Uptherams said:

No it was me ? 

I've got two warnings in 8 years, even with Gboro ready to pounce.

Totally worth it too.

Let's all compare. 

I'd love to know my ratio of warnings to how many of my posts are reported. 

?

I still don't know what happened in that thread that weekend. I hadn't looked at it all weekend and came back to reports it's now gone because shots had been fired. 

I got two warnings in a similar timespan I think - and both times the politics thread got closed down, it was when I was away on holiday so not even contributing.

And they paint me and you as the bad guys @Uptherams ? The facts suggest otherwise!

[Albert]

14 minutes ago, maxjam said:

Can't find it on the ONS website, there is lots of info on there including covid's impact on suicide rates for example which won't be known until next year.

This Guardian article has a bit more info though;

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/sep/02/pandemic-may-have-hastened-non-covid-deaths-in-england-and-wales

They are, including noting the original point, which is that there's nothing to say it's not undiagnosed Covid. Notably:

Quote

“Another explanation for these non-Covid increases is undiagnosed Covid,” he added.

The trend was most evident in people aged 80 or over. The cohort had the greatest increase in non-Covid-19 mortality between mid-March and early May but which subsequently experienced the largest decreases in non-Covid-19 mortality from May to 10 July, compared with the five-year average.

Also note the graphic.

That said, the broader point is an important one which is there were and are people delaying access to care, which in turn will lead to health complications. Analyses from other countries seem more concerned with this in terms of the consequences after the pandemic. That is, preventable diseases that have been exacerbated by lack early treatment. This is particularly the case for cancer, with concerns that we'll see a huge spike in later stage cancer cases post pandemic, as some who would otherwise get tested, etc have not been. 

The thing with all that is, however, that the same is a concern even in countries without strict lockdowns at this time. There are less people getting tested, etc even here in South Australia, where we are virtually as open as we're getting until this pandemic ends. Speaking with some dentists their decline in patients is also a concern, though fortunately slightly lower stakes. 

That said, other countries also give clues on lockdowns and their effects. Given the data we have, and the analyses out there, it does seem more likely than not that the majority of the excess deaths through the first peak in the UK were undiagnosed Covid, which explains why they went away with the cases. That said, that isn't say that lockdown doesn't have health impacts, just that they're likely longer term. 

I just hope that the UK makes it through this second wave in one piece, and that here we're prepared for when the next outbreak comes. Complacency is creeping in again here, and that's the most dangerous thing of all. 

[Albert]

18 minutes ago, Uptherams said:

Starting with the assumption they are with Covid actually. You either can't read or are bad at statistics. 

10,000 people die.

100 are registered as Covid

2000 in excess of 5 year average

2000-100 = 1900 excess deaths, not registered as Covid. 

Some people aren't dying and being tested for Covid. That's because they get lost at sea. Actual things that are statistically insignificant. Almost every single person that dies is being tested for Covid. 

 

 

Again, it's not true that every person who dies is being tested for Covid, the assumption is poorly placed. 

Also, I might have missed something, but when was there 2000 excess deaths, but only 100 Covid deaths? 

Also, as noted, excess deaths only trended with Covid deaths. That scaling relationship is indicative of one thing, and the fact the excess deaths disappeared with the Covid deaths while lockdowns remained is telling, as noted in the previously linked articles. 

Also, as noted previously, even by the calculations you presented, the total number of expected 'deaths with Covid' was only of the order of less than 100 for the length of the pandemic. You've completely ignored that one. Not surprised. 

Additionally, are you really so lazy that you've posted the same comment twice? See quoted comments below:

18 minutes ago, Uptherams said:

I agree. My reply  below when the usual doom merchants implied I believed some obscene conspiracy theory.

 

Fear.

Those accountable have lost all perspective. The only metrics they care about right now relate to Covid. It's like how you have a wartime Prime minister and a peacetime Prime minister. Completely different mindsets, priorities, etc. 

They must assume as much control as possible because they fear the backlash they face for Covid deaths. They believe the more control they have the more deaths they can prevent and less people can accuse them of not doing enough.

Much of the media and many of the public don't tolerate any deaths. Utterly hysterical. If the UK took a completely different approach to say France and we ended up with just 1000 more deaths this year, many people wouldn't behave rationally. They'd see that as a huge failure and how those accountable should be shamed publicly in the streets. Ridiculous. 

The cabinet and Sage are in the bunker. Still drawing up plans. Ignoring what is happening outside of the bunker. The war is already over. 

Is there some grand conspiracy? As I highlighted, no. They are driven and motivated by fear. 

 

4 hours ago, Uptherams said:

Fear.

Those accountable have lost all perspective. The only metrics they care about right now relate to Covid. It's like how you have a wartime Prime minister and a peacetime Prime minister. Completely different mindsets, priorities, etc. 

They must assume as much control as possible because they fear the backlash they face for Covid deaths. They believe the more control they have the more deaths they can prevent and less people can accuse them of not doing enough.

Much of the media and many of the public don't tolerate any deaths. Utterly hysterical. If the UK took a completely different approach to say France and we ended up with just 1000 more deaths this year, many people wouldn't behave rationally. They'd see that as a huge failure and how those accountable should be shamed publicly in the streets. Ridiculous. 

The cabinet and Sage are in the bunker. Still drawing up plans. Ignoring what is happening outside of the bunker. The war is already over. 

Is there some grand conspiracy? As I highlighted, no. They are driven and motivated by fear. 

Bizarre. 

[ariotofmyown]

2 hours ago, TexasRam said:

Recent data says defo not, but you don’t believe that so it’s pointless keep going over it (won’t stop me posting the data however)

So you are saying that recent data says that the majority of scientists do not agree with @Eddie's position? Where do you even get this from?

[Gone]

Just now, ariotofmyown said:

So you are saying that recent data says that the majority of scientists do not agree with @Eddie's position? Where do you even get this from?

Some agree with the posters view some don’t . I am saying recent data shows quite clearly there is no mass deadly spread and there is no second wave. And compared to the predictions that lead to the latest restrictions they are a million miles away. Let me know when it sinks in please. 

[Uptherams]

37 minutes ago, SchtivePesley said:

I got two warnings in a similar timespan I think - and both times the politics thread got closed down, it was when I was away on holiday so not even contributing.

And they paint me and you as the bad guys @Uptherams ? The facts suggest otherwise!

Yeah but us lot ain't got no allies ?

[Albert]

4 minutes ago, TexasRam said:

Some agree with the posters view some don’t . I am saying recent data shows quite clearly there is no mass deadly spread and there is no second wave. And compared to the predictions that lead to the latest restrictions they are a million miles away. Let me know when it sinks in please. 

...no second wave? The UK is getting over 4000 new cases per day; it's a second wave. 

[Uptherams]

4 minutes ago, TexasRam said:

Some agree with the posters view some don’t . I am saying recent data shows quite clearly there is no mass deadly spread and there is no second wave. And compared to the predictions that lead to the latest restrictions they are a million miles away. Let me know when it sinks in please. 

I've seen theories that what we went through in April was the second wave. Going to stick my neck out and say I believe that to be the case and obviously genuinely hope it was. 

I was seriously ill begining of the year.  Stephascope indicated my lower left lung wasn't functioning. Got put on a nebuliser, perscribed steroids for a week, given perscriptions for 4 inhalers. Got put on steroids for a further 4 days. Did a peak flow test multiple times at multiple checkups. Even 4 weeks after the first trip my lung capacity was shocking. Couldn't take a deep breathe for about 6 weeks. 

No obvious sign of infection they were saying and  I was physically too strong for it to be flu. Wasn't tested for anything. Just treated as I was improving.

But they weren't testing for Covid then ?

[Gone]

10 minutes ago, Albert said:

...no second wave? The UK is getting over 4000 new cases per day; it's a second wave. 

It’s not 

[Rev]

Can we just make this thread Winner stays on?

[Comrade 86]

40 minutes ago, TexasRam said:

It’s not 

 

[rammieib]

2 hours ago, Uptherams said:

Starting with the assumption they are with Covid actually. You either can't read or are bad at statistics. 

10,000 people die.

100 are registered as Covid

2000 in excess of 5 year average

2000-100 = 1900 excess deaths, not registered as Covid. 

Some people aren't dying and being tested for Covid. That's because they get lost at sea. Actual things that are statistically insignificant. Almost every single person that dies is being tested for Covid. 

 

 

No they're not.

[rammieib]

2 hours ago, maxjam said:

I think a lot of it boils down to appearance.

If 500ppl a week die from covid and the Government has appeared to do nothing, they will get slaughtered.

If 500ppl a week die from non-covid illnesses as a result of lockdown restrictions its far more difficult to absolutely lay blame.

Having daily stats and news briefings for covid infections/deaths compared to ifs, buts and maybes for non-covid excess deaths has led to continuing heavy handed lockdowns.

Amen.

[rammieib]

4 hours ago, ariotofmyown said:

If this debate was purely @Eddie vs @TexasRam, then that post would make some sort of sense, at least is we assume that people are unable to to form opinions based on factors outside of their immediate sphere.

However, most scientific opinion is on @Eddie's side, where you have a few dissenting voices who keep getting repeated in the usual places.

The majority view of scientists seems a better bet than choosing between two people on a football forum. Or even the views of people who drive revenue from being controversial. 

The real doom and gloom is are we already at a point where the UK (and other similar countries) have become stupefied to the point where it becomes impossible to be an effective country? 

My issue with scientists is Covid has given something to be excited about (for the wrong reasons of course). I've not heard of any scientist who has lost their job because of Covid yet. Funny that.

Their jobs are safe, as safe as you can be right now. So when they plunder out there numbers and what we should and shouldn't be doing, they don't need to take into account economic factors. In fact, I've not even seen any scientist (linked to the Government) take into account any illness/disease other than Covid-19. I find that quite remarkable.

Every day now I'm reading stories about loved one's being lost because treatments have been cancelled and delayed. Hospital appointments are running around 50% what they were pre lockdown. (Source - NHS!). 

Yet I'm reading about Patrick Vallance having £600k of share options in one of the big pharma's. It's shocking - Whitty/Vallance are some of the worst to come out of this time period we're in. History will decide opinions on them but I find its deplorable where we are currently.