Coronavirus

[GboroRam]

15 minutes ago, Norman said:

And why don't they try to settle there?

Language? 

Family? 

Connections? 

Perceptions? 

Promises from third parties? 

 

Honestly, who knows? 

[Norman]

Just now, GboroRam said:

Language? 

Family? 

Connections? 

Perceptions? 

Promises from third parties? 

 

Honestly, who knows? 

I think an in depth look into German healthcare and benifits system might find the answer. 

[GboroRam]

2 minutes ago, Norman said:

I think an in depth look into German healthcare and benifits system might find the answer. 

I don't. 

[sonofmidnight]

20 minutes ago, GboroRam said:

I don't. 

Why? I actually find our response to covid 19 embarrassing. We were too late going into lock down and successive governments failed to provide the NHS and care home staff with the proper PPE. Way back in 2009 my partner was part of a team who were tasked in investigating what would be needed for a pandemic. Their recommendations were not acted on at all! In contrast the Germans seem to be handling this crisis much more efficiently. An interesting fact I learned that the Germans are less likely to use ventilation as  they believe it can do more harm than good. It pains me to say it but I think we could learn a lot by looking at Germany.

[Gritstone Ram]

1 hour ago, GboroRam said:

Language? 

Family? 

Connections? 

Perceptions? 

Promises from third parties? 

 

Honestly, who knows? 

Suicide?

well listening to some on how we’ve handled this virus outbreak.

[GboroRam]

33 minutes ago, Van Gritters said:

Suicide?

well listening to some on how we’ve handled this virus outbreak.

 

1 hour ago, Dappled Ram said:

Why? I actually find our response to covid 19 embarrassing. We were too late going into lock down and successive governments failed to provide the NHS and care home staff with the proper PPE. Way back in 2009 my partner was part of a team who were tasked in investigating what would be needed for a pandemic. Their recommendations were not acted on at all! In contrast the Germans seem to be handling this crisis much more efficiently. An interesting fact I learned that the Germans are less likely to use ventilation as  they believe it can do more harm than good. It pains me to say it but I think we could learn a lot by looking at Germany.

Question was why don't they try to settle in Germany but prefer to travel to the UK because of the healthcare and benefits, if I read it correctly. I gave a few reasons why someone might prefer to try to reach the UK illegally. 

[Andicis]

4 hours ago, Dappled Ram said:

Why? I actually find our response to covid 19 embarrassing. We were too late going into lock down and successive governments failed to provide the NHS and care home staff with the proper PPE. Way back in 2009 my partner was part of a team who were tasked in investigating what would be needed for a pandemic. Their recommendations were not acted on at all! In contrast the Germans seem to be handling this crisis much more efficiently. An interesting fact I learned that the Germans are less likely to use ventilation as  they believe it can do more harm than good. It pains me to say it but I think we could learn a lot by looking at Germany.

We finished second on the preparedness for dealing with a pandemic above Germany, but not only that, there isn't cast iron evidence that a full lockdown actually has any benefits. The Germans are testing younger people, and likely have way less cases than we do due to the fact that London is a global hub and no German cities are. Wait till the end of the crisis before you put Germany on a pedestal, when the numbers have more context and any potential second wave is out of the way. 

[Comrade 86]

34 minutes ago, Andicis said:

We finished second on the preparedness for dealing with a pandemic above Germany

Slightly incongruous the that USA and the UK who filled the top two slots have the highest global death counts.

[Andicis]

5 minutes ago, 86 Schmokes & a Pancake said:

Slightly incongruous the that USA and the UK who filled the top two slots have the highest global death counts.

They also have been hit in areas of huge population density in New York and London. If Italy and Spain released real numbers, and we had real numbers of infections it might provide more context to the statistics.

[Eddie]

1 minute ago, Andicis said:

They also have been hit in areas of huge population density in New York and London. If Italy and Spain released real numbers, and we had real numbers of infections it might provide more context to the statistics.

Why do some people basically think that every other country in the world is lying about their figures, when our own government lie about everything? It's one of only two things they are capable of doing - the other one being spinning.

 

[Andicis]

Just now, Eddie said:

Why do some people basically think that every other country in the world is lying about their figures, when our own government lie about everything? It's one of only two things they are capable of doing - the other one being spinning.

 

Well Italy aren't including care homes in their figures for quite a while, that would probably put them higher than us in the statistics, nor is Spain who basically abandoned their care homes in some cases. The fact that our deaths are out of proportion to the rest of the world means we either had way more cases than we know about, or other countries are under reporting their cases. Or both.

[Gee SCREAMER !!]

34 minutes ago, Andicis said:

Well Italy aren't including care homes in their figures for quite a while, that would probably put them higher than us in the statistics, nor is Spain who basically abandoned their care homes in some cases. The fact that our deaths are out of proportion to the rest of the world means we either had way more cases than we know about, or other countries are under reporting their cases. Or both.

I think the fact we were informed back in March that estimated loss of life in the UK was going to 20,000 and this was considered a worst case scenario indicates this has rapidly accelerated over and above what was expected and by more than 50 per cent. . The peak of this was supposed to be a month ago today- around 600 people a day are losing there lives still.  Latest estimates indicate around 20.000 new cases of Covid from un-quarantined arrival in the uk from people arriving by plane in the last month .  Apparantley quarantine is now likely.  Bit late.  Pakistan are removing lockdown in the middle of there peak, all flights from Pakistan and into Pakistan from the UK should now stop. We'll see.

Obviously, there has been a deficiency in advice or lack of urgency somewhere. I'll give credit for the increase in ventilators available , but that credit goes to the businesses who stepped up to provide at the last minute not those doing the asking.  I'm a reasonably intelligent person and am not sure if I should be wearing masks and gloves.  Can drive anywhere. Will I get arrested for driving to somewhere scenic for a walk as it's ok for me to go to a drive thru.  Can I get a doctors appt . The nhs is supposed to be open for business but my aunt who's had a letter saying she can't go out has been waiting a month over for a B12 injection .  My dad had a lttr saying he should only open a window - then was asked to go to hospital for an eye injection , that was then put back a month .  We have the worst death rate in Europe as the whole thing has been a total cluster.  Nowt to do with massaging figures.

[Andicis]

29 minutes ago, Gee SCREAMER !! said:

I think the fact we were informed back in March that estimated loss of life in the UK was going to 20,000 and this was considered a worst case scenario indicates this has rapidly accelerated over and above what was expected and by more than 50 per cent. . The peak of this was supposed to be a month ago today- around 600 people a day are losing there lives still.  Latest estimates indicate around 20.000 new cases of Covid from un-quarantined arrival in the uk from people arriving by plane in the last month .  Apparantley quarantine is now likely.  Bit late.  Pakistan are removing lockdown in the middle of there peak, all flights from Pakistan and into Pakistan from the UK should now stop. We'll see.

Obviously, there has been a deficiency in advice or lack of urgency somewhere. I'll give credit for the increase in ventilators available , but that credit goes to the businesses who stepped up to provide at the last minute not those doing the asking.  I'm a reasonably intelligent person and am not sure if I should be wearing masks and gloves.  Can drive anywhere. Will I get arrested for driving to somewhere scenic for a walk as it's ok for me to go to a drive thru.  Can I get a doctors appt . The nhs is supposed to be open for business but my aunt who's had a letter saying she can't go out has been waiting a month over for a B12 injection .  My dad had a lttr saying he should only open a window - then was asked to go to hospital for an eye injection , that was then put back a month .  We have the worst death rate in Europe as the whole thing has been a total cluster.  Nowt to do with massaging figures.

Nobody said 20,000 was a worst case scenario though? The real worst case scenarios were talking about 500,000 deaths. Neil Ferguson's prediction was around that high to begin with. The peak was a month ago, the number is still high but it isn't the peak. You would not be arrested for driving somewhere for a walk, it's already been clarified that.

Now is not the time for comparing death rates, it's a pointless task. You're comparing with other countries that count deaths differently, other countries with different population densities, other countries who had it spread in the younger generation as opposed to the older one. There are so many factors, being ignorant on the death rate and just claiming it's because we ducked it up ignores so many factors. 

[Angry Ram]

5 hours ago, Gee SCREAMER !! said:

I think the fact we were informed back in March that estimated loss of life in the UK was going to 20,000 and this was considered a worst case scenario indicates this has rapidly accelerated over and above what was expected and by more than 50 per cent. . The peak of this was supposed to be a month ago today- around 600 people a day are losing there lives still.  Latest estimates indicate around 20.000 new cases of Covid from un-quarantined arrival in the uk from people arriving by plane in the last month .  Apparantley quarantine is now likely.  Bit late.  Pakistan are removing lockdown in the middle of there peak, all flights from Pakistan and into Pakistan from the UK should now stop. We'll see.

Obviously, there has been a deficiency in advice or lack of urgency somewhere. I'll give credit for the increase in ventilators available , but that credit goes to the businesses who stepped up to provide at the last minute not those doing the asking.  I'm a reasonably intelligent person and am not sure if I should be wearing masks and gloves.  Can drive anywhere. Will I get arrested for driving to somewhere scenic for a walk as it's ok for me to go to a drive thru.  Can I get a doctors appt . The nhs is supposed to be open for business but my aunt who's had a letter saying she can't go out has been waiting a month over for a B12 injection .  My dad had a lttr saying he should only open a window - then was asked to go to hospital for an eye injection , that was then put back a month .  We have the worst death rate in Europe as the whole thing has been a total cluster.  Nowt to do with massaging figures.

I thought we were told that a figure of 20,000 would be best possible and that we would have done very well to achieve that.

[RamNut]

I wonder how many cases there really are in Derbyshire with 359 recorded deaths, 

initially it was suggested that the mortality rate was around 3%.

some people even argued that it was lower, around 1% similar to flu

the official stat says there are 1400 cases in Derbyshire which would be a whopping 25% mortality.

the number of deaths suggests that the number of confirmed cases should be more like 14000, ten times more.

it just shows how much more testing is required in order to get an understanding of risk, and therefore at present the app could underestimate your chances of contact and transmission by a factor of ten. 

 

 

[rammieib]

18 minutes ago, RamNut said:

I wonder how many cases there really are in Derbyshire with 359 recorded deaths, 

initially it was suggested that the mortality rate was around 3%.

some people even argued that it was lower, around 1% similar to flu

the official stat says there are 1400 cases in Derbyshire which would be a whopping 25% mortality.

the number of deaths suggests that the number of confirmed cases should be more like 14000, ten times more.

it just shows how much more testing is required in order to get an understanding of risk, and therefore at present the app could underestimate your chances of contact and transmission by a factor of ten. 

 

 

Don’t forget it’s probably worth adding Derby and Derbyshire together. Circa 200k in Derby and 750k living in Derbyshire.

I wonder how many of them consider Derby Royal to be their hospital.

[Archied]

1 hour ago, Angry Ram said:

I thought we were told that a figure of 20,000 would be best possible and that we would have done very well to achieve that.

Don’t remember best poss bit ? But was stated if we stayed under 20k would be good ,, mind you a long way from proff not me figure of 500 k 

[Archied]

1 hour ago, RamNut said:

I wonder how many cases there really are in Derbyshire with 359 recorded deaths, 

initially it was suggested that the mortality rate was around 3%.

some people even argued that it was lower, around 1% similar to flu

the official stat says there are 1400 cases in Derbyshire which would be a whopping 25% mortality.

the number of deaths suggests that the number of confirmed cases should be more like 14000, ten times more.

it just shows how much more testing is required in order to get an understanding of risk, and therefore at present the app could underestimate your chances of contact and transmission by a factor of ten. 

 

 

That is really the crux ,we have no idea how many have had it and to be fair not even the best rated countries in terms of testing can be expected to be in a position to test on the scale needed to produce the figures we need to get a real mortality rate ,until then we are limited to guestimates and at the mercy of computers models which are clearly very limited and at the mercy of the data you put in , they can swing wildly depending on who is doing them

[Guest]

7 hours ago, Gee SCREAMER !! said:

I think the fact we were informed back in March that estimated loss of life in the UK was going to 20,000 and this was considered a worst case scenario indicates this has rapidly accelerated over and above what was expected and by more than 50 per cent. .

The only time I have heard the figure of 20,000 used was when Sir Patrick Valllance said less than this figure would be a 'good outcome'. 

[RamNut]

I wonder what happened to the 10 minute test developed by a Derby company.
 

https://www.surescreen.com/products/covid-19-coronavirus-rapid-test-cassette

A quick turnaround test is really important.