Up to 10 players out of contract - smarter window than we give ourselves credit for?

[Duracell]

This guy has raised some really interesting points in this twitter thread (you have to open the tweet on the app or site to read it).

We have as many as 10 players out of contract next summer: Pearce, Olsson, Bryson, Ledley, Jerome, Nugent, Johnson, Huddlestone, Butterfield and Mitchell.

We could potentially be left with Evans, Hanson, Bird, Thorne and Elsnik in central midfield next summer.

For those who can’t be bothered to read the twitter thread, he basically asks - would we rather sign these players now, or do it all in January or next summer?

I’d expect a couple of the names above to head out on loan, maybe one or two to be sold, and the rest happy to sit out their contract playing with the U23s.

Basic calculations of having those 10 down on £25k a week means we shave £13m off the wage bill next summer if they all leave!

[SaintRam]

I read that thread earlier, and you're right. It's a good breakdown of our, seemingly very astute, transfer strategy.

[StaffsRam]

Bye bye: Pearce, Olsson, Jerome, Butterfield

Sad to see go, but for the best: Bryson, Nugent

Would retain: Ledley, Johnson, Huddlestone, Mitchell

[Duracell]

Just now, StaffsRam said:

Bye bye: Pearce, Olsson, Jerome, Butterfield

Sad to see go, but for the best: Bryson, Nugent

Would retain: Ledley, Johnson, Huddlestone, Mitchell

Not sure about Johnson. You can get a midfield bruiser who can’t tackle or pass but can head the ball well from a lower league side for £5k a week.

[StaffsRam]

Just now, Duracell said:

Not sure about Johnson. You can get a midfield bruiser who can’t tackle or pass but can head the ball well from a lower league side for £5k a week.

I know, I think I live in a perpetual state of expectation that Johnson will re-find his earlier career form. 

[cannable]

Just now, StaffsRam said:

I know, I think I live in a perpetual state of expectation that Johnson will re-find his earlier career form. 

The problem with that is even during his fifteen goal season Norwich’s upturn in form came when he was moved wide-left to get him out of the way of build-up play. 

[Duracell]

Just now, StaffsRam said:

I know, I think I live in a perpetual state of expectation that Johnson will re-find his earlier career form. 

He can shoot. He’s got a fearsome left peg.

His best form was for Norwich playing LM where they got him out of the way for build up play and his job was to get on the end of crosses and hit from long range.

£6,000,000 and £30k+ a week for a midfielder in his late 20s whose best form came in a system designed to keep him out of the way ?

 

[cannable]

Didn’t those who understand the accounts mention that we can’t let them all go because they’re listed as assets equivalent to their transfer fees?

[Duracell]

3 minutes ago, cannable said:

The problem with that is even during his fifteen goal season Norwich’s upturn in form came when he was moved wide-left to get him out of the way of build-up play. 

Can we also highlight that when we broke our transfer record it was for a 28 year old who’d had one excellent season in the second tier and had spent the majority of his career playing in the third tier of below.

[cannable]

1 minute ago, Duracell said:

Can we also highlight that when we broke our transfer record it was for a 28 year old who’d had one excellent season in the second tier and had spent the majority of his career playing in the third tier of below.

He’d made 100+ Premier League appearances and just won POTS for the club that finished third, to be fair. 

Which is exactly why I no longer care for a player’s pedigree ?

[RoyMac5]

6 minutes ago, cannable said:

Didn’t those who understand the accounts mention that we can’t let them all go because they’re listed as assets equivalent to their transfer fees?

What if we've enough 'income' to cover those 'losses'?

[Duracell]

Just now, cannable said:

He’d made 100+ Premier League appearances and just won POTS for the club that finished third, to be fair. 

Which is exactly why I no longer care for a player’s pedigree ?

Wouldn’t look into the Prem career appearances, a lot of average players find themselves in the purgatory of being regular starters in teams which are habitually nearly relegated in the top flight.

The POTS thing at 28 against a career that was solid if unspectacular just highlights how much we overpaid for a flash in the pan. Did the same thing with Blackman on a smaller scale.

[Kirkbyram]

I think it’s hard to compare the Johnson and Blackman transfer. At the time the Johnson transfer looked good business and seemed to provide us with the midfield general that we needed. I’m sure most fans were pleased when we signed Johnson. He’s also been a decent player in a number of positions, worth 6 million, probably not but a good player nonetheless with good pedigree at this level over a number of seasons. Blackman on the other hand seemed to be bought on a whim and just seemed to unsettle the balance. Not his fault but has not worked out at all. The more recent transfers seem much more thought out and refreshingly look to improve the quality of our squad. 

[cannable]

4 minutes ago, RoyMac5 said:

What if we've enough 'income' to cover those 'losses'?

The flip side to losing their value if released on a free is that, with their transfer fee being spread over their initial contract, around £4,000,000 spend will be gone from the accounts, so I’d imagine letting a couple of them go wouldn’t be an issue. 

If my understanding’s correct, which it may well not be, it wouldn’t surprise me if we gave one of BJ or Butters another year.

[Duracell]

Just now, Kirkbyram said:

I think it’s hard to compare the Johnson and Blackman transfer. At the time the Johnson transfer looked good business and seemed to provide us with the midfield general that we needed. I’m sure most fans were pleased when we signed Johnson. He’s also been a decent player in a number of positions, worth 6 million, probably not but a good player nonetheless with good pedigree at this level over a number of seasons. Blackman on the other hand seemed to be bought on a whim and just seemed to unsettle the balance. Not his fault but has not worked out at all. The more recent transfers seem much more thought out and refreshingly look to improve the quality of our squad. 

I agree that we thought it was good business (I was excited too), but that was on the face of it. You’d expect the club to be operating above a level of getting caught up on hype and going on pedigree alone - that’s their job. Even those of us excited at the time questioned the fee and it’s proved to be terrible value for money. He’d have had to maintain his Norwich form for a while with us to justify the fee.

I’d be interested to see what happens to him next summer.

[Big Trav]

42 minutes ago, Duracell said:

This guy has raised some really interesting points in this twitter thread (you have to open the tweet on the app or site to read it).

We have as many as 10 players out of contract next summer: Pearce, Olsson, Bryson, Ledley, Jerome, Nugent, Johnson, Huddlestone, Butterfield and Mitchell.

We could potentially be left with Evans, Hanson, Bird, Thorne and Elsnik in central midfield next summer.

For those who can’t be bothered to read the twitter thread, he basically asks - would we rather sign these players now, or do it all in January or next summer?

I’d expect a couple of the names above to head out on loan, maybe one or two to be sold, and the rest happy to sit out their contract playing with the U23s.

Basic calculations of having those 10 down on £25k a week means we shave £13m off the wage bill next summer if they all leave!

Id keep Bryson Ledley Jerome Huddlestone 

[Spanish]

12 minutes ago, cannable said:

The flip side to losing their value if released on a free is that, with their transfer fee being spread over their initial contract, around £4,000,000 spend will be gone from the accounts, so I’d imagine letting a couple of them go wouldn’t be an issue. 

If my understanding’s correct, which it may well not be, it wouldn’t surprise me if we gave one of BJ or Butters another year.

we don't know how much has been spread if any.  BJ's value is not on a straight line depreciation rather it is based on his expected value at the end of the contract which won't be 0.

[inter politics]

This is the way I currently see it for this season:

 

First team squad

Carson
Wisdom
Lowe
Keogh
Davies
Huddlestone
Bryson
Mount
Wilson
Lawrence
Waghorn

Roos/Mitchell
Tomori
Evans
Ledley
Johnson
Josefzoon
Marriott

Nugent
Bennett
Pearce
Forsyth

 

Loan out (future with Derby)

Thomas (really like but don't see how he will get much game time otherwise)
Bogle (same as Thomas)
Thorne (loved the guy at his peak, doubt he'll ever get back to that but hope he proves many of us wrong)
Elsnik

 

Sell or loan out (with future not at Derby)

Butterfield
Anya
Blackman
Jerome (won't forget this guy was a big reason why we made the play-offs)
Martin (with a heavy heart)
Hanson
Olsson (when fit again)

 

[whiteroseram]

31 minutes ago, cannable said:

Didn’t those who understand the accounts mention that we can’t let them all go because they’re listed as assets equivalent to their transfer fees?

If that's accurate then not an issue really for Mitchell, Ledley, Pearce or Bryson.

FFP surely can't use book value of a player, other wise you spend £12million on a player, you gain a £12million asset, you'd have broken even that summer, would take few years to hit your balance sheet. I thought (maybe wrongly) that they originally have book value of their transfer fee X portion of their contract remaining. After contract renewal it'd be different though, we'd have to update a players "book value" semi-regularly for insurance purposes (If Bryson got injured in summer 2014 and insurance covered us for loss of asset, we'd have been gutted if we got about 350k as the pay out).

In short, shouldn't worry about it. Rules designed (badly) to make teams more sustainable aren't going to punish teams for for taking players off the wage bill

[Rampage]

We have crept up to fourth favourites with the bookies.