Ollie Watkins - Signed for Brentford

[Rev]

19 minutes ago, Ambitious said:

Can someone explain what Brentford do differently to other clubs - especially to obtain the 'moneyball' label? 

I thought their method was to use analytics heavily in order to gain a good understanding on a player, most likely one they've watched. I would hope beyond hope we utilise this method also. 

I don't care if you're a bloke in the stand, the junior scout at a club or the chief scout at the biggest club in the world. It's likely that you have a bias, as it's human nature, and it drives your decisions right or wrong. I would say the use of analytics eradicates the risk of this 'bias' come in to play. At least to a certain degree. 

Football has moved on to the stage where, given the right funds, you can vet a potential signing to the hilt. The top clubs, including Derby given their investment into this kind of stuff, will have access to data that some fans can't even conceive. An example of this is the 360 degree camaras at Moor Farm for the youth teams. The bloody YOUTH TEAMS. it effectively allows the coaches to review the game through the eyes of any player on the pitch. If they want to watch the full 90 minutes through the eyes of the left-back, which I imagine wouldn't be the most entertaining thing to do, they can. Before I had a quick tour around the facility, I didn't even think that was possible, plus I would guess it's only one product in a long line of armoury they can call on. 

I've said it before, I'll say it again now and I'll continue to say it until I'm blue in the face. I doubt there is an easier job on this planet than being a football scout. If your job is to watch football at all different levels, in different countries, I can't possibly conceive how you can get it wrong. When you take into account you can now track stuff like distance traveled, dribble accuracy, pass position, pass accuracy and everything else under the sun. It's basically a job for the very fortune who manage to get into the industry. 

I'm actually confident that there is a number of people who post on this forum who have the knowledge, who would have the work ethic and who have the intelligence to save Mel some money. 

Can you not just pm Mel and ask him for a job?

[MackworthRamIsGod]

There could be corrupt scouts out there who get paid by dodgy CEOs to recommend a player who actually isn't as good as they make out.

Not saying that has ever happened, but if you are familiar with George Weahs brother, it is damn easy to get something wrong when not on the ball.

[Bfc1997]

Brentford fan here.

Just to clarify on here: our method is not that similar to moneyball.

We apply different methods to our scouting, transfer methods and youth development because we have to be different at this level to compete. Our budget is not anywhere near top half.  Different use of analytics is one of the methods.

To be fair - whilst we've not been as consistently successful at this level than Derby, it's not about getting a certain level of success. It's about having an edge on the competition whatever they're spending.

Our budgets, attendances and wage bills are fairly close to Rotherham's and Wigan's but we're consistently overachieving. I'm not sure the method is fully scalable.  

As for Watkins, we've been scouting him for two years, before he was even a regular for Exeter.  We nearly got him last summer. 

Whether we win the race for him or not, it does prove that there's more to recruitment at this level than just whether you pay the most.  Jota, Judge, Gray, Hogan, Dallas, Tarkowski, Bidwell, Forshaw have all been signed for less than £1m each, and we don't pay anyone more than about £12,000 a week.

 

[LeedsCityRam]

58 minutes ago, Bfc1997 said:

Whether we win the race for him or not, it does prove that there's more to recruitment at this level than just whether you pay the most.  Jota, Judge, Gray, Hogan, Dallas, Tarkowski, Bidwell, Forshaw have all been signed for less than £1m each, and we don't pay anyone more than about £12,000 a week.

 

I wish I could put that comment on a sign in our boardroom. I much prefer your model & ironically enough the spine of our most successful recent team (13/14) was assembled in a similar fashion.

[MackworthRamIsGod]

1 hour ago, Bfc1997 said:

Brentford fan here.

Just to clarify on here: our method is not that similar to moneyball.

We apply different methods to our scouting, transfer methods and youth development because we have to be different at this level to compete. Our budget is not anywhere near top half.  Different use of analytics is one of the methods.

To be fair - whilst we've not been as consistently successful at this level than Derby, it's not about getting a certain level of success. It's about having an edge on the competition whatever they're spending.

Our budgets, attendances and wage bills are fairly close to Rotherham's and Wigan's but we're consistently overachieving. I'm not sure the method is fully scalable.  

As for Watkins, we've been scouting him for two years, before he was even a regular for Exeter.  We nearly got him last summer. 

Whether we win the race for him or not, it does prove that there's more to recruitment at this level than just whether you pay the most.  Jota, Judge, Gray, Hogan, Dallas, Tarkowski, Bidwell, Forshaw have all been signed for less than £1m each, and we don't pay anyone more than about £12,000 a week.

 

As a Derby fan I envy Brentord for pretty much nailing it in the transfer market time and time again.

You will eventually get promoted, that I am certain, you will have a new stadium and things will eventually look rosey.

My boss is a Bees fan so I have followed them for a few years.

[Philmycock]

1 hour ago, MackworthRamIsGod said:

As a Derby fan I envy Brentord for pretty much nailing it in the transfer market time and time again.

You will eventually get promoted, that I am certain, you will have a new stadium and things will eventually look rosey.

My boss is a Bees fan so I have followed them for a few years.

You are certain that Brentford will be a premier league team just cuz they made profit on 7 signings, hmmm

[MackworthRamIsGod]

54 minutes ago, philmycock said:

You are certain that Brentford will be a premier league team just cuz they made profit on 7 signings, hmmm

No, I dont think they will get promoted 'cuz' they made profit on 7 players, I'm certain they will get promoted because as I said, I have followed the fortunes of Brentford for a number years and can see they are a club building steady foundations and like Bournemouth, Brighton, Swansea and dare I say Huddersfield, they will keep plugging away until they get promoted.

They are building a new stadium, just like Brighton did, once that is open increased gates will mean increased revenue. Resulting in Brentford having a stronger hand in the transfer market.

Imagine if they were able to tell clubs to get on their bike, they could have a forward line of Gray, Hogan and Jota, with Vibe and Judge on the bench, Tarwoski and Odubajo in defense, the list goes on.

I would be more than happy to wager that Brentford make it to the premier league before us Rams, hmmm.

[Philmycock]

4 minutes ago, MackworthRamIsGod said:

No, I dont think they will get promoted 'cuz' they made profit on 7 players, I'm certain they will get promoted because as I said, I have followed the fortunes of Brentford for a number years and can see they are a club building steady foundations and like Bournemouth, Brighton, Swansea and dare I say Huddersfield, they will keep plugging away until they get promoted.

They are building a new stadium, just like Brighton did, once that is open increased gates will mean increased revenue. Resulting in Brentford having a stronger hand in the transfer market.

Imagine if they were able to tell clubs to get on their bike, they could have a forward line of Gray, Hogan and Jota, with Vibe and Judge on the bench, Tarwoski and Odubajo in defense, the list goes on.

I would be more than happy to wager that Brentford make it to the premier league before us Rams, hmmm.

Ok, glad that you think Brentford will get promoted before Derby will. Good lad, glad you're happy to wager that bet. #brentfordfanbossisgod

[The_Sheriff]

I actually think Brentford are more likely to go down then go up.

[MackworthRamIsGod]

1 hour ago, Simsy said:

I actually think Brentford are more likely to go down then go up.

That is what we were saying when Bournemouth got promoted, Stoke got promoted, Swansea got promoted, Leicester got promoted, thats what people were saying about Huddersfield last year and what we are saying about Huddersfield and a Brighton this year.

If it proves anything, it is that anything can happen in football and us fans know sod all ?

[Bfc1997]

2 hours ago, Simsy said:

I actually think Brentford are more likely to go down then go up.

I'm not sure why you think that. Were you at the game at Griffin Park last season?

Our target was Premier League in 3 years.  First two years, we've spent building a squad with long contracts, young but experienced, versatile and deep. We're now sprinkling it with quality and I've no doubt we'll be nowhere near the bottom end of the table.

[Bfc1997]

1 hour ago, MackworthRamIsGod said:

That is what we were saying when Bournemouth got promoted, Stoke got promoted, Swansea got promoted, Leicester got promoted, thats what people were saying about Huddersfield last year and what we are saying about Huddersfield and a Brighton this year.

If it proves anything, it is that anything can happen in football and us fans know sod all ?

Certainly, I think fans predictions are pretty meaningless, especially at this stage.  There's so much luck and random variables at play in the game, you can't account for the fine margins. 

Who'd have predicted that AFCB would gamble on Kenwyne Jones etc. to help them over the line?

Back to topic, it seems we have won the race for Watkins.  We can't be offering a higher salary, so I wonder if DCFC has other, more expensive irons in the fire now that Ince has gone?

 

[Sexydadbod]

I think Brentford will get promoted before we do. They're one of my dark horses this season to make the play offs alongside Sheffield Utd.

They remind of Bournemouth in the year before they got promoted. I don't think they will get promoted this upcoming season but look out for them in the season 18/19

[Sexydadbod]

2 minutes ago, Bfc1997 said:

Certainly, I think fans predictions are pretty meaningless, especially at this stage.  There's so much luck and random variables at play in the game, you can't account for the fine margins. 

Who'd have predicted that AFCB would gamble on Kenwyne Jones etc. to help them over the line?

Back to topic, it seems we have won the race for Watkins.  We can't be offering a higher salary, so I wonder if DCFC has other, more expensive irons in the fire now that Ince has gone?

 

According to Alan Nixon, we have a 'new transfer list' as a result of having more money to play around with as a result of the sales of Ince, Hughes and Christie. I imagine Watkins would have been on our 'old list' had those players still been here.

[Bfc1997]

1 minute ago, McLovin said:

According to Alan Nixon, we have a 'new transfer list' as a result of having more money to play around with as a result of the sales of Ince, Hughes and Christie. I imagine Watkins would have been on our 'old list' had those players still been here.

Ah, that makes sense.  Be interested to compare the success of Watkins vs whoever you sign in the position come to the end of the season if indeed you deemed him 'not good enough' now that you have more funds.

[Sexydadbod]

1 minute ago, Bfc1997 said:

Ah, that makes sense.  Be interested to compare the success of Watkins vs whoever you sign in the position come to the end of the season if indeed you deemed him 'not good enough' now that you have more funds.

Judging by our poor scouting record, Watkins will go be one of the stars of the championship season if he joins you before moving to a premier league club the next season for 15 million.

[rynny]

3 minutes ago, McLovin said:

Judging by our poor scouting record, Watkins will go be one of the stars of the championship season if he joins you before moving to a premier league club the next season for 15 million.

Like Bogle?

[Sexydadbod]

6 minutes ago, rynny said:

Like Bogle?

Or Andre Gray, Kodjia....

[rynny]

1 minute ago, McLovin said:

Or Andre Gray, Kodjia....

When were we in for Gray? Other than curtains pining over him and at £8-9m Kodjia we didn't want to spend £16m on him! And both after 1 season at this level! Fail to see what your argument is with those 2 names?

[Sexydadbod]

5 minutes ago, rynny said:

When were we in for Gray? Other than curtains pining over him and at £8-9m Kodjia we didn't want to spend £16m on him! And both after 1 season at this level! Fail to see what your argument is with those 2 names?

Both are worth more now than what we would have paid, likewise don't know what your point was with Bogle? He was playing in a very poor team that created nothing. Doubt the lord saviour Chris Martin would have done any better for them so why hold that against him? It's all ifs and maybes.