Still on for that 9 points out of possible 12 that we need

[dcfc88888]

I think we could win some, if you'll pardon the pun.

[Bris Vegas]

We'd have to go home games W7 D1 L0..

As if we'll do that..

As for away games, We've won 3 in 16.. We need roughly another 3 in 9.. Probably more given that we won't win all of our home games.. We probably need to win around 4 or 5 of the remaining 9 away games..

Mission impossible

I think with some good form we'll finish around 10th like Cumbrian mentions

[DCFCfranco]

I think we could win some, if you'll pardon the pun.

Don't feckin Start

[B4ev6is]

well early in the season we nearly strunk 7 games back to back, until we lost to burnley we have showed we can strings games togather our last run was 4 games until we lost to hull city at pp. i think with games that nobody expects us to win the players feel less preasure and we might be able to play our free flowing football. i think nigal should stick with 442 as it work for us. we can keep the ball on the deck what i would like us play is 3 up top at some point.

[ChaddesdenRam]

i think nigal should stick with 442 as it work for us.

'http://www.dcfcfans.co.uk/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/smile' class='bbc_emoticon' alt=':)' /> 'http://www.dcfcfans.co.uk/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/smile' class='bbc_emoticon' alt=':)' /> 'http://www.dcfcfans.co.uk/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/smile' class='bbc_emoticon' alt=':)' />

[Bris Vegas]

well early in the season we nearly strunk 7 games back to back, until we lost to burnley we have showed we can strings games togather our last run was 4 games until we lost to hull city at pp. i think with games that nobody expects us to win the players feel less preasure and we might be able to play our free flowing football. i think nigal should stick with 442 as it work for us. we can keep the ball on the deck what i would like us play is 3 up top at some point.

We went into the Burnley game off a run of 2 wins in 6...

Also we haven't won 3 games in a row all season, let alone 4..

Also if we feel less pressure against the teams we feel we can't win that might not explain why our record against Cardiff, Leicester, Hull, Burnley, Brighton is quite poor..

Of the teams in the top half, we've only beaten Watford, Boro, Forest and Leeds.. Against the other 7 we've failed..

I like the idea of playing 3 uptop too.. Or with 2 wide attacking players.. But I don't think that would be possible in a 4-4-2 buddy..

[G STAR RAM]

well early in the season we nearly strunk 7 games back to back, until we lost to burnley we have showed we can strings games togather our last run was 4 games until we lost to hull city at pp. i think with games that nobody expects us to win the players feel less preasure and we might be able to play our free flowing football. i think nigal should stick with 442 as it work for us. we can keep the ball on the deck what i would like us play is 3 up top at some point.

For once I agree with something you say.

Have you backed down from saying that 'the yanks' pick our tactics or are you going to give them some praise for 4-4-2 on Saturday?

[Jacob Smith]

Although highly unlikely, crazier things have happened in football. And I won't count us out of the promotion race until the numbers prove it.

[Animal is a Ram]

Interesting that you have us down as a loss away at Blackpool.. we've done quite well out of them recently, despite our poor away form I'd fancy us in that one.

[RodleyRam]

What's 17 X 3?

That's how many points I think we'll get...

In all honesty though, play offs is a long shot as it would require us to put a run together, the like of which we've not seen since Jimmy Smith.

Never say never though, I think we should be looking to go into every game with a view to getting all 3 points, draws aren't really worth it at this stage, I'd rather we threw caution to the wind and tried to actually beat teams away from home!

[Uptherams]

Based on our away record this season I hope Clough now decides to just go for it away from home.

[CumbrianRam]

Two points thrown away today, blew a great chance.

Still stand by my original prediction.

[Bris Vegas]

Forest (H)

Hudders (H)

Sheff Wed (A)

Hull (A)

Wolves (H)

Bolton (H)

Watford (A)

Palace (H)

Cardiff (A)

Brum (A)

Leicester (H)

Bristol C (H)

Leeds (A)

Ipswich (H)

Blackburn (A)

Barnsley (A)

P'Boro (H)

Blackpool (A)

Millwall (H)

Black marks wins... Blues draws.. Greens losses..

After the draw the same results are needed for the rest of the season..

Wins 10 Draws 2 Losses 4

Points at Hull will take the pressure off the two home games against Bolton and Wolves.. Any less than 6 points from the next 3 will be terrible for our playoff prospects..

[PistoldPete]

Forest (H)

Hudders (H)

Sheff Wed (A)

Hull (A)

Wolves (H)

Bolton (H)

Watford (A)

Palace (H)

Cardiff (A)

Brum (A)

Leicester (H)

Bristol C (H)

Leeds (A)

Ipswich (H)

Blackburn (A)

Barnsley (A)

P'Boro (H)

Blackpool (A)

Millwall (H)

Black marks wins... Blues draws.. Greens losses..

After the draw the same results are needed for the rest of the season..

Wins 10 Draws 2 Losses 4

Points at Hull will take the pressure off the two home games against Bolton and Wolves.. Any less than 6 points from the next 3 will be terrible for our playoff prospects..

Bris dont you think the target points might come down a bit now that Boro have lost 5 on the spin?

I must admit though I am beginning to wonder whether we will ever win another away game this season, which would make the play offs near impossible.

[Bris Vegas]

Bris dont you think the target points might come down a bit now that Boro have lost 5 on the spin?

I must admit though I am beginning to wonder whether we will ever win another away game this season, which would make the play offs near impossible.

It's just an average over the past 10 years..

I'm not sure it can work like that Pete.. I think it would be foolish to suggest those that are in 6th place are going to make the playoffs, or those that are in 6th place is the team to catch.. Afterall, Middlesbrough only have 47 points (they could still get relegated).. Even Boro need another 27 points or so from 16 games which is still a tough ask..

You just know that one team from the pack will string results together towards the end.. Last season Cardiff won 4 and drew 2 of the last 6, claiming 14 points from 6 games.. They came from 9th position to 6th and 61 points to 75 in the last 6 games..

It will more than likely happen again.. For all we know Boro could finish around 11th or 12th and Blackburn or Leeds win 5 of the last 7 or something like that to grab 6th place on around 74 points..

It could be Derby.. But we need to make a move soon.. In the results I wrote, you can see we'd get 16 points from the last 7 and that is one hell of a strong finish.. If we did that we'd go into the playoffs with alot of momentum..

[PistoldPete]

It's just an average over the past 10 years..

I'm not sure it can work like that Pete.. I think it would be foolish to suggest those that are in 6th place are going to make the playoffs, or those that are in 6th place is the team to catch.. Afterall, Middlesbrough only have 47 points (they could still get relegated).. Even Boro need another 27 points or so from 16 games which is still a tough ask..

You just know that one team from the pack will string results together towards the end.. Last season Cardiff won 4 and drew 2 of the last 6, claiming 14 points from 6 games.. They came from 9th position to 6th and 61 points to 75 in the last 6 games..

It will more than likely happen again.. For all we know Boro could finish around 11th or 12th and Blackburn or Leeds win 5 of the last 7 or something like that to grab 6th place on around 74 points..

It could be Derby.. But we need to make a move soon.. In the results I wrote, you can see we'd get 16 points from the last 7 and that is one hell of a strong finish.. If we did that we'd go into the playoffs with alot of momentum..

Yes having looked at the table and heard how Blackburn outclassed us I do fancy them to grab the 6th spot not us.

Mind you having seen us outclass Boro I also fancy us to catch them.

But if a team outside the top 6 has a chance, and no one outside the 6 points is over 1 point ahead of us, how come its Mission Impossible for us?

[PistoldPete]

It's just an average over the past 10 years..

I'm not sure it can work like that Pete.. I think it would be foolish to suggest those that are in 6th place are going to make the playoffs, or those that are in 6th place is the team to catch.. Afterall, Middlesbrough only have 47 points (they could still get relegated).. Even Boro need another 27 points or so from 16 games which is still a tough ask..

You just know that one team from the pack will string results together towards the end.. Last season Cardiff won 4 and drew 2 of the last 6, claiming 14 points from 6 games.. They came from 9th position to 6th and 61 points to 75 in the last 6 games..

It will more than likely happen again.. For all we know Boro could finish around 11th or 12th and Blackburn or Leeds win 5 of the last 7 or something like that to grab 6th place on around 74 points..

It could be Derby.. But we need to make a move soon.. In the results I wrote, you can see we'd get 16 points from the last 7 and that is one hell of a strong finish.. If we did that we'd go into the playoffs with alot of momentum..

Yes Boro could still get relegated so could we... I find it amazing we are only 8 points clear of relegation zone.

[Albert]

Bris dont you think the target points might come down a bit now that Boro have lost 5 on the spin?

I must admit though I am beginning to wonder whether we will ever win another away game this season, which would make the play offs near impossible.

It will almost certainly still be at least 70 points, it hasn't been any lower than that in 15 years, and I highly doubt this season will be any different. Now, to be clear here, when I say in the last 15 years, I don't mean that it was less than that 16 years ago, I mean I only checked the figures back 15 years.

Now, I'm going to be blunt about this. Even from a logical perspective the chances are that we'll need about as many points as normal. Now, let's think about this in a simplified perspective:

Top 5 teams

6. Middlesbrough - 47 points, but let's pretend they don't get any more, take them out of the thinking here

7-15. For argument sake, let's say they're all the same as Derby, 42 points, 11 wins, 9 draws and 10 losses

So that's 9 teams in the battle for the top 6, and that's almost certainly an underestimation as it ignores Middlesbrough, who are in the top 6, and teams like Brum, who really aren't that far off still, they are closer to us than we are to the playoffs. So, we have our set up here.

Now, I've discussed before my method for calculating our chances of making the top 6 based on previous Championship seasons, our results this season, the likelyhood that we'll improve and a calibration factor from previous Championship seasons. Long story short, it's just a numbers game, but it seems to give an interesting answer. So, what are our chances of making the playoffs according to it, if the playoffs require the usual average of 74 points that is?

A whopping 8%, 45-4... Fantastic. Now, the reason I set the other teams to be on the same points as us (and in an approximate sense they are), is we can now consider the effect of this. Think about it, we have at least 9 teams, with an 8% chance of hitting the usual 74 odd points total. To put that another way, the odds that none of the 9 will hit that mark if the probability is accurate is around 47%. So, toss coin, that's the kind of odds we're talking here. Basically, it's a lot more likely than most would think that the total will be the same as normal.

Now, let's drop the target down to 72 points, just to see what happens. Suddenly, our odds of reaching the playoffs would jump up to 17%, but the odds that none of the teams would reach that mark is now only 19%. There's also only a 23% chance that that a team apart from us would reach it.

How about only 69 points though? Just below the lowest playoff qualifying total in the last 15 years. Well, our chances are up to 29%, but the chances that no team makes that mark is only 4.5%, or 6.4% for nobody but us hitting that mark. Long story short, we're more likely to qualify for the playoffs on 74+ points than the required total being much less than normal. Keep in mind the count of 9 teams actually ignores Middlesbrough, and with them included the chance of these totals not being reached would actually be even smaller.

Long story short, history and statistics suggest that someone is going to have a good run and take that position, and if we're to be the one who does it, we'd actually need that good run! We shouldn't be hoping on the stars aligning for us to [url=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fAADWfJO2qM]Steven Bradbury our way to the playoffs.

[Bris Vegas]

Yes having looked at the table and heard how Blackburn outclassed us I do fancy them to grab the 6th spot not us.

Mind you having seen us outclass Boro I also fancy us to catch them.

But if a team outside the top 6 has a chance, and no one outside the 6 points is over 1 point ahead of us, how come its Mission Impossible for us?

Because you might look at it like many people are looking at it.. A direct comparison with 6th place..

We should just completely ignore the table and focus on getting 74 points..

Because regardless of what Boro do now, or what Leeds Utds results are, you just know that one team will finish strongly..

The reason I feel it's mission impossible is because I don't think it's possible for us to accumulate the average points needed to get into the playoffs.. We could win the next 3 games on the trot, reach the playoffs, but still end up in the bottom half.. It's all well and good getting into a position, but we'd need to maintain it too.. Like I mentioned, Boro could well finish 11th or 12th, they made the playoffs, but with 16 games to go if they can't maintain playoff form they'll drop out..

What I think the mistake people are making is thinking 'we're only 6 points behind 6th' and thinking we only need to get another 6 points to make it when in reality we need to better their results until the end of the season by 6 points..

If you discount the top 5 now and look at a league table like this..

Middlesbrough +5

Blackburn +1

Burnley +1

Brighton 0

Derby 0

Leeds Utd 0

Millwall -1

Nottm Forest -1

Blackpool -2

Charlton -2

Brum -4

Bolton -5

Of those 12 teams, with 16 games remaining... We need to finish in 1st place..

[ChaddesdenRam]

Still possible take each game as it comes. Game in hand against hull will be difficult.