Jump to content

Still on for that 9 points out of possible 12 that we need


ChaddesdenRam

Recommended Posts

We don't need any players.

Except a left back.

We need to play 442 away from home. That simple.

Our home form merits a play off spot. But away from home we don't win, obviously. We haven't even tried 442 away from home at least give it a go.

Are you serious?

Hendrick was quality today but he hasn’t been that good for most of the season. We need a better version of Sammon. We need another striker. We need a LB. We need another Shackell because OB really isn’t good enough to be a first team regular yet. This is the first season that injuries to key players haven’t left us completely and utterly screwed, yet we’re still short of quality in depth.

I also don’t think the tactics of the manager are more important than the quality of the players he has to work with.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 139
  • Created
  • Last Reply

I'm bored of your posts now and think you are a wum/reddog.

Good night.

B4 is Derby to the core bud. Been posting since the DET 'NEP' site years ago to my knowledge.

It takes all sorts, so if you can, give the lad a break.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Didn't notice. mind you, it was such a long post i had a piss and got another drink while reading it 'http://www.dcfcfans.co.uk/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/ph34r' class='bbc_emoticon' alt=':ph34r:' />

You must be well pissed x2 when you read mine,utch.Albert's must have you paralytic 'http://www.dcfcfans.co.uk/public/style_emoticons/<#EMO_DIR#>/sad' class='bbc_emoticon' alt=':(' />

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think the problem with this is your looking for the average to get into the play offs. Were hoping to scrape 6th and to do that we wouldnt necessarily need to get the average. From the table at the moment the top 5 are breaking away and the 6th place is up for grabs. I'd imagine whoever finishes 6th will finish on less than 70.

Ive taken the average of the 6th place finish over the past 10 years.. It stands at 73.5 points

To make the playoffs (6th) we'd need that amount..

It's do-able... But we'd need to go on automatic promotion form to do it.. Any of the teams 9th to 14th need to hit automatic form to make the playoffs... But one will, no idea who, but the law of averages says that one team will hit form..

It could be us, but we'd need to win another 10 games to do so.. Which means finding another 4 away wins from somewhere whilst maintaining a near perfect home record....

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The lowest amount to reach the playoffs in 15 years has been 70 points. The highest amount to miss out has been 75.

I've still got my "chance of playoffs" spreadsheet, it currently rates us at a 12% chance of the playoffs given our results this season. The probability is based on data from previous Championship and First Division seasons, the current results and the chance that our form will be better than it has been already this season etc.

Personally, just from where we are, that seems about right too. There is certainly still a chance, but it's very slim unless something remarkable happens.

I also think there's an error on the BBC and SkySports websites, as they both say we're on 44 points from 30 games, despite us only having played 29 games and having just got to 41 points yesterday. The official website seems to be saying the same thing...

...they seemed to have credited us with two win in a day over Huddersfield at home... I'd take that, it was a good performance.

It definitely seems to be an error, and does not appear on the Football League website.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

So how many points off the playoffs are we actually once they find the mistake.

At the minute we are 6 points off 6th place

Anyone from 7th down to about 14th need automatic form to reach 74 points

Middles borough arent far off that either need 27points from 17 games - and have not won since christmas.

Playoffs are up for grabs for a lot of teams including us

Link to comment
Share on other sites

At the minute we are 6 points off 6th place

Anyone from 7th down to about 14th need automatic form to reach 74 points

Middles borough arent far off that either need 27points from 17 games - and have not won since christmas.

Playoffs are up for grabs for a lot of teams including us

We are six points off and have 3 winnable games coming up in a row.

Do we have games in hand on any teams also.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

We are six points off and have 3 winnable games coming up in a row.

Do we have games in hand on any teams also.

I wouldnt call Hull away winnable - and Wnedies have hit some form too

games in hand I think its only Burnley above us - but that game in hand is Hull a week on Tuesday so cant count on those three points either

Link to comment
Share on other sites

i just feel we could sometime need a bit of steel in centrel midfield spacail when teams are trying to take out will huges, or give us that opapion to rest him because these last couple of weeks he has look a bit tired. but on the whole we looking a very good team. but also feel we need someone who can do a something a little bit different when teams have sussed us out.

It's all irrelevant anyway because as you revealed earlier on in the week 'the yanks' have told Clough not to get us promoted and they are also picking the tactics that we play now too.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The saying about past behaviour being the best predictor of future performance immediately springs to mind. We haven't occupied a play off spot for the majority of the season so far yet lots of folks on here are expecting us to suddenly turn that around in the final third of the season.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Looking at the last 8 form only Burnley out of the teams between us and Boro are doing better than us.

we are currently just over 0.2 points per game beter than Boro.

on that form over the 17 games left we will not catch boro but it would be close. Burnley would so on current form we should finish about 8th

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Looking at the last 8 form only Burnley out of the teams between us and Boro are doing better than us.

we are currently just over 0.2 points per game beter than Boro.

on that form over the 17 games left we will not catch boro but it would be close. Burnley would so on current form we should finish about 8th

correction

we are .4 pts per game ahead of Boro so over 17 games left will catch them

we are .25 points per game behind Burnley so over 16 games would lose 4 points to them. If we win our game in hand that would be only 1 point

in short on current form we would finish 7th behind Burnley by 2 points

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I put our chances at about 15-20%, away form is the issue. So lets say 72 points is the target, 31 required.

These are where we need to get the points from

Wins

Sheff Wed away

Wolves home

Bolton home

Birmingham away

Bristol C home

Ipswich home

Barnsley away

Pboro home

Millwall home

Draws

Palace home

Leicester home

Blackburn away

Blackpool away

The rest I see as bounses,

More than one win in 1 two is needed on this basis.

Personally I think we will end up 6 or 7 points short in 10th.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Wins

Sheff Wed away

Wolves home

Bolton home

Birmingham away

Bristol C home

Ipswich home

Barnsley away

Pboro home

Millwall home

i reckon we could genuinely get them, we have some easy (i say easy but i mean easier cause you can never tell in this league) games in the run in to the end of the season just need a bit of form that starts with sheffield wed, wolves and bolton.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Forest (H)

Hudders (H)

Hull (A)

Sheff Wed (A)

Wolves (H)

Bolton (H)

Watford (A)

Palace (H)

Cardiff (A)

Brum (A)

Leicester (H)

Bristol C (H)

Leeds (A)

Ipswich (H)

Blackburn (A)

Barnsley (A)

P'Boro (H)

Blackpool (A)

Millwall (H)

Black marks wins... Blues draws.. Greens losses..

So with the win against Huddersfield it remains a tough ask.. Any result against Hull would be a bonus as I've marked it as a loss..

As you can see above.. From our remaining 17 games we need a record similar to W10 D3 L4

Mission Impossible

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

×
×
  • Create New...