PistoldPete Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 I'm not saying that it's impossible.. I'm just saying for our limitations and especially with our awaqy record we have next to no chance.. Basically if we repeat the first half performance by beating all the same teams we need to find another 3 wins from somwehere.. Here are our games left.. For a 74 point average we need 40 points.. A record of 12-4-5 is enough.. Can you see 12 wins in this lot given that we've only won 3 games on the road all season? There is no point in saying we can just reverse the first half of the season results because our home and away forms are poles apart.. We beat Watford at home 5-1, away from home it's going to be totally different.. Ok a record of 12-4-5.. I'll bold an example.. Blue for draws.. Boro (H) Brighton (A) Forest (H) Hull (A) Hudders (H) Sheff Wed (A) Wolves (H) Bolton (H) Watford (A) Palace (H) Cardiff (A) Brum (A) Leicester (H) Bristol C (H) Leeds (A) Ipswich (H) Blackburn (A) Barnsley (A) P'Boro (H) Blackpool (A) Millwall (H) Can you now see our margin for error? We basically can't afford to drop any points at home, winning most of them.. We need to at one point string wins together, more than 2, something we haven't done all season.. We need at least 4 or 5 away wins.. We have a chance, so does many teams around midtable.. But if any of them are going to make it, from this point on they need to go on automatic promotion form.. Maybe one will do it, maybe it will be us (I don't see on what evidence) but I'm not ruling it out.. I'm saying, knowing our capabilities, that we have next to no chance of pulling off results similar to the ones I just posted.. Well I agree with most of that, although maybe the expectation is that 74 points wont be needed this year. i also agree that we will need a 4 to 5 match winning run somewhere which oddly we havent managed this year but did twice last year when we are generally inferior. Also odd is that in your best case prediction we dont win more than 2 on the trot either. I think in reality we should hope for cheeky 1-0 away wins. After all Peterboro won 3-0 at Cardiff. Somewhere along the way we need to surprise someone including ourselves by getting the odd unexpected away win. That means we must tighten the defence. If we dont, I agree we will have little chance of the playoffs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leicester Ram Posted December 30, 2012 Share Posted December 30, 2012 You can't predict the result of a match 1 month away in the Championhip. Teams dip in and out of form to regularly. It wouldn't surprise me if we lost to Birmimgham away and then beat an out of sorts Leicester at home 3-0. There is no way of knowing what's going to happen. Take into consideration that lat year, we could have made the play-offs at the end. A string of back to back wins could have sealed it. If we could win all the Huddersfield, Bolton, Wednesday and Wolves games, that form could get us unexpectes wins at Watford and home to Palace. But we could easily lose to a Bolton hitting form and lose the next 4. It's a mystery and by no means impossible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davenportram Posted January 1, 2013 Author Share Posted January 1, 2013 Next 4 league matches are against teams above us. Boro (H) Brighton(A) Forest(H) and Hull (A) We need to pick up points. 2 Wins and a draw id be happy thats one of the wins id hoped for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boycie Posted January 1, 2013 Share Posted January 1, 2013 Forest are now below us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mozza Posted January 1, 2013 Share Posted January 1, 2013 Forest are now below us. well spotted, Sherlock.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leicester Ram Posted January 1, 2013 Share Posted January 1, 2013 Hoping for a draw at Brighton and a win against Forest. We usually hit form after we beat Forest so I'm hoping that'll get us a result at Hull. After that as far as I'm concerned we should beat Hudders, Wendies, Wolves and Bolton. But obviously its not that simple. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AndyB Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 Anyone can beat anyone, it's anybody's guess what will happen but it certainly is interesting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal is a Ram Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 Hoping for a draw at Brighton and a win against Forest. We usually hit form after we beat Forest so I'm hoping that'll get us a result at Hull. After that as far as I'm concerned we should beat Hudders, Wendies, Wolves and Bolton. But obviously its not that simple. The fact that we lost to two of those and scraped a draw in the remainder scares me a little. That said they are nowhere near better teams in the league, and that 3 of those 4 we play at home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
davenportram Posted January 2, 2013 Author Share Posted January 2, 2013 The fact that we lost to two of those and scraped a draw in the remainder scares me a little. That said they are nowhere near better teams in the league, and that 3 of those 4 we play at home. But the losses and one of the draws were away from home - Wolves and Wendies were not scraped draws we were all over Wolves and should have equalised sooner than the last minute and Wednesday we threw it away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal is a Ram Posted January 2, 2013 Share Posted January 2, 2013 But the losses and one of the draws were away from home - Wolves and Wendies were not scraped draws we were all over Wolves and should have equalised sooner than the last minute and Wednesday we threw it away. That was the point I made in the second part of my post. As for scraped - I meant that we only just got the goal to gain the point, and against Wendies we should have comfortably won that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PistoldPete Posted January 3, 2013 Share Posted January 3, 2013 Next 4 league matches are against teams above us. Boro (H) Brighton(A) Forest(H) and Hull (A) We need to pick up points. 2 Wins and a draw id be happy Me too especially if the 2nd win is against Forest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bris Vegas Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 OK so after the recent 2 games and the fact that the 6th place team looks like it will require the average of 74 points (possibly more) this season to make the playoffs that leaves us needing roughly 37 points (the amount we have now) in only 19 remaining games.. We now need to hit automatic promotion form to make the playoffs.. A record similar to this would be sufficient, bold for wins, blue for draw, green for defeat.. Forest (H) Hull (A) Hudders (H) Sheff Wed (A) Wolves (H) Bolton (H) Watford (A) Palace (H) Cardiff (A) Brum (A) Leicester (H) Bristol C (H) Leeds (A) Ipswich (H) Blackburn (A) Barnsley (A) P'Boro (H) Blackpool (A) Millwall (H) So as you can see a record similar to this.. Or a (W11 D4 L4)... We realistically need to go undefeated for the rest of our home games, winning around 8/10 (way above our average) and away from home (W3 D2 L4).. For every game we slip up at home we'd realistically need to win away from home to compensate.. We've got some big away games left including Hull, Leeds, Blackburn and Watford where obvious losses will result in them gaining further ground and vice versa (direct playoff rival matches will now become 6 pointers) Gotta say folks, we're not even on to beat our points tally of last season let alone make the playoffs.. We've got next to no chance.. Although on the positive side I do feel we have a better squad than last season and we're not a million miles away.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mozza Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 So, we beat Forest then ? strange, in prediction league, you have us down for a 2-0 defeat.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bris Vegas Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 So, we beat Forest then ? strange, in prediction league, you have us down for a 2-0 defeat.. The above isn't a prediction... I'm super confident we won't go the rest of the season unbeaten at home.. Especially as Leicester are coming to town.. I'm merely suggesting results that would be needed to make the playoffs.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Albert Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Based on my previous analysis of the Championship and using our season so far, we have around a 10% chance of reaching the playoffs as things stand. ...without one mighty good run soon we don't really have much chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pudding Jack Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 could have a 'purple patch'..... hope not mind. we'd get bent over in the prem. i'd rather have decent run in the cup. beat a money side Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChaddesdenRam Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Albert what was the percentage chance of reading getting promoted at this stage of the season. I can't expect it to be too high. I still think that we can do it but only if we play 442 away from home, I feel so strongly about the fact we should not be playing 451. it has been proven to be a fantastic formation at getting 0 points most away games, please change it up. what do we have to lose, we are not gonna get relegated so just go for wins away and nothing else. Just do what Blackpool did and played to your strengths. Without Barker and a slow left back we will concede goals away from home no matter the formation. so we should be looking to score more than them, I know this is the whole aim of football but I feel our intent is lacking with 1 up top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jourdan Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 The weekend's results weren't very favourable for us. Losing to a team also vying for a play-oIf place was damaging enough but then for Watford to win at Middlesbrough was a big blow. While they are in sixth, they are the team to chase and well potentially now they have a nine point lead over us if they win their game in hand. It's becoming an uphill task but I'd be more resigned if there were 7 or 8 games left, but since there is still 19 games left, we can still hope. Teams are going to fluctuate between now and May, quite dramatically too. If we want to give ourselves a chance, we are going to have to take advantage of the fact, while the Hull game is in limbo, four of our next five league games are at Pride Park. That could be our opportunity to build some momentum going into the Watford game. After all, we are probably going to have to beat them at Vicarage Road to stay in the mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bris Vegas Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 Albert what was the percentage chance of reading getting promoted at this stage of the season. I can't expect it to be too high. I still think that we can do it but only if we play 442 away from home, I feel so strongly about the fact we should not be playing 451. it has been proven to be a fantastic formation at getting 0 points most away games, please change it up. what do we have to lose, we are not gonna get relegated so just go for wins away and nothing else. Just do what Blackpool did and played to your strengths. Without Barker and a slow left back we will concede goals away from home no matter the formation. so we should be looking to score more than them, I know this is the whole aim of football but I feel our intent is lacking with 1 up top. The Reading case was totally different... As by this stage of the season they were already in full momentum and had accumulated far more points.. Take away the first 7 or 8 games of the season and by this stage of the season Reading had accumulated more points than any other side in the NPC by a fair few.. I'd know as my mate whose a Reading fan kept banging on about it.. He was certain they'd win promotion even with 20 games remaining as they were genuinely the best side in the league, they just had a terrible start.. It's completely different to us as we've never really hit any good form.. In our 27 games this season, if you break that down into 5 lots of 5 game sequences you'll see that our points tally from the 5 games ranges from 10 points to 4.. None higher and none lower.. It shows we're extremely inconsistant for either a relegation/promotion side or the flip side is that we're extremely consistant for a midtable side.. We're currently on for 63 points this season.. Which is strange given that not long ago someone posted up that we're something like 10 points better off against direct opposition from last season.. I think we've struggled against the 6 new teams in the league which might fluctuate things.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YoungUttoxRam Posted January 15, 2013 Share Posted January 15, 2013 If you're boring and you know it clap your hands... Bris? Clap man?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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