10 or 11 wins needed to get to playoffs

[davenportram]

Looking back at past seasons 19 or 20 wins is required to make the play-offs.

We have (not counting the Charlton result if we can get a late winner) 9 wins so far so 11 more wins should see us in with a shout at the playoffs.

Can we get these wins.

[Bris Vegas]

We need 75 points.. Maybe 72 or 73 would get there but 75 to be sure..

But we have 34 from 25 games.. Needing another 41 from 21..

We need to go on automatic form to make the playoffs.. We need runs of.. W-D-L

11-8-2.. Or 12-5-4.. Or 13-2-6

When you've only won 3 from 13 away games (less than 25%), and 6 from 12 home games (50%).. Do you honestly think we're going to go and win more than 50% of our remaining games..

We've got next to no chance of making the playoffs..

[davenportram]

Didbt say we had a chance just putting it out there what we need to get close. Hence the question at the end.

[networker1884]

Spot on from Bris, we can hope and dream, but we'd have to drastically change to get in the playoffs.

[DCFCfranco]

its not impossible but highly unlikely.

[Day]

I don't think we'll lose again till next season in the Premiership, 3-1 at Old Trafford on opening day with Theo getting our goal

[uttoxram75]

Laughable - we rarely lose at Old Trafford.

[Brammie Steve]

Let's just enjoy the run-in and see what happens... At least we should be safe by mid feb and not have to get 3 points from our last game of the season to avoid relly.

[dabber]

Let's just enjoy the run-in and see what happens... At least we should be safe by mid feb and not have to get 3 points from our last game of the season to avoid relly.

Well now you've gone and done it!

[Rampant Rob]

Anyone else think that this will the lowest ever total to get into the playoffs?

Despite our poor run over the last three games we have only ever been 3/4 points off that 6th spot.

[G STAR RAM]

We need 75 points.. Maybe 72 or 73 would get there but 75 to be sure..

But we have 34 from 25 games.. Needing another 41 from 21..

We need to go on automatic form to make the playoffs.. We need runs of.. W-D-L

11-8-2.. Or 12-5-4.. Or 13-2-6

When you've only won 3 from 13 away games (less than 25%), and 6 from 12 home games (50%).. Do you honestly think we're going to go and win more than 50% of our remaining games..

We've got next to no chance of making the playoffs..

We are only 3 points off a play off place. Surely that means that all the teams above us will need to go on automatic promotion form just to stay in their positions then?

[Bris Vegas]

We are only 3 points off a play off place. Surely that means that all the teams above us will need to go on automatic promotion form just to stay in their positions then?

6th place is on 37 points, with 2 games in hand.. 5th place is on 41 points

It's illogical to think that just because at this stage we're 3 points behind that we only need to improve 3 points to be in or around the playoffs..

It's like an 1500m race.. At 750m we're only 3 seconds behind 6th place.. (let's say top 6 qualify for the finals).. When all 6 positions finish on average over 10-15 previous races on under 4 minutes.. We're currently going at 2 minutes 3 seconds which at the same pace we'd hit 4 minutes and 6 seconds.. It's illogical to think that just because we're 3 seconds behind at the halfway stage that 3 seconds more we'd be in 6th place.. Because you know there will be one or two who apply a sprint finish to go under..

The same can be applied for the NPC.. You know there will be one team, two at a push, who do go on great form to make the playoffs.. Every year it happens..

That's why it's pointless to look at how many points behind 6th we are now and we just need to aim for a points total in general..

[Jourdan]

With 21 games to play, to say we have next to no chance of making the play-offs is premature. If Watford win tonight and their game in hand too, then that statement would definitely hold more weight.

We will have to improve, there's no doubt about that. Bris, you mention that there's always one or two teams that make a late charge up the table every year. Why can't it be us? Anyone from Forest all the way down to Ipswich will be thinking they have a chance if they can put a run of results together.

I would think it's too early to forecast how many wins we need. Even 75 points might not be enough. Historically it usually is. 73 is the average points total for a 6th placed finish since 2004-05.

But who knows how consistent the ten teams above will be? For me, we just need to take it one game at a time, see what happens and remain hopeful.

[Guest]

Could we yes, will we no, unless we change the regime currently running the club.

Around twelve is where we will finish, and hope that florist don't manage to get promoted, otherwise we won't have anything to put into the calendar for our next average season.

[ChaddesdenRam]

Game at a time look what reading did their squad was not fantastic.

[Bris Vegas]

With 21 games to play, to say we have next to no chance of making the play-offs is premature. If Watford win tonight and their game in hand too, then that statement would definitely hold more weight.

We will have to improve, there's no doubt about that. Bris, you mention that there's always one or two teams that make a late charge up the table every year. Why can't it be us? Anyone from Forest all the way down to Ipswich will be thinking they have a chance if they can put a run of results together.

To be honest, it's too early to forecast how many wins we need. Even 75 points might not be enough. We just need to take it one game at a time, see what happens and remain hopeful.

Well.. What chance would you have it? A good chance? 50-50? I'd say there is less than 15% chance we'd make the playoffs..

Here are the following 6th place finishes since 2001-02

2001-02 = 75 points

2002-03 = 74 points

2003-04 = 73 points

2004-05 = 73 points

2005-06 = 75 points

2006-07 = 75 points

2007-08 = 70 points

2008-09 = 74 points

2009-10 = 70 points

2010-11 = 75 points

2011-12 = 75 points

Average = 73.5

Watford are on 40 points from 24 games.. 1.6 points per game.. If they continue they'll make 73.6 points

Now we know that this might not happen.. They might slip down.. But it's illogical to look at specific teams and their points total at this moment in time and much more logical to look at a target number. The average being 73.5. I mean it would be same as Bristol City fans looking at Ipswich's results after 15 games thinking they're going to be direct relegation rivals.. 10 games later and they're only 4 points behind Derby..

It is highly unrealistic for us to make the playoffs.. We might do, but we need to go on auto form to do it.. It might be us, but on what evidence would you suggest it is us? We don't have any momemtum, we don't score goals away and we're not even winning more than 50% of our home games to compensate for a poor away record.

[Jourdan]

Well.. What chance would you have it? A good chance? 50-50? I'd say there is less than 15% chance we'd make the playoffs..

Here are the following 6th place finishes since 2001-02

2001-02 = 75 points

2002-03 = 74 points

2003-04 = 73 points

2004-05 = 73 points

2005-06 = 75 points

2006-07 = 75 points

2007-08 = 70 points

2008-09 = 74 points

2009-10 = 70 points

2010-11 = 75 points

2011-12 = 75 points

Average = 73.5

Watford are on 40 points from 24 games.. 1.6 points per game.. If they continue they'll make 73.6 points

Now we know that this might not happen.. They might slip down.. But it's illogical to look at specific teams and their points total at this moment in time and much more logical to look at a target number. The average being 73.5. I mean it would be same as Bristol City fans looking at Ipswich's results after 15 games thinking they're going to be direct relegation rivals.. 10 games later and they're only 4 points behind Derby..

It is highly unrealistic for us to make the playoffs.. We might do, but we need to go on auto form to do it.. It might be us, but on what evidence would you suggest it is us? We don't have any momemtum, we don't score goals away and we're not even winning more than 50% of our home games to compensate for a poor away record.

You're missing my point entirely.

Football is a wonderful game and throws up the unexpected time and time again. I'm not disputing the fact that it is a big ask and we will have to improve somewhat.

But while there are 21 games to play and 63 points to play for, how can we rule anything out? Just like we wouldn't go around saying we're safe from relegation in January, why would we apply a different logic to making the play-offs?

To be honest, I had us down to finish 16th so I'm surprised as much as anyone that play-offs is still in the discussion after Christmas.

[Bris Vegas]

You're missing my point entirely.

Football is a wonderful game and throws up the unexpected time and time again. I'm not disputing the fact that it is a big ask and we will have to improve somewhat.

But while there are 21 games to play and 63 points to play for, how can we rule anything out? Just like we wouldn't go around saying we're safe from relegation in January, why would we apply a different logic to making the play-offs?

To be honest, I had us down to finish 16th so I'm surprised as much as anyone that play-offs is still in the discussion after Christmas.

Football does throw up suprises you're right..

But it's ilogical to think that just because the points are available that it's within reach of making it.. The chances of us making the playoffs is the same as Stoke finishing in the top 4, or Chelsea winning the league.. Of course it's mathematically possible at this stage, but that doesn't mean it's beyond reason to suggest we have next to no chance..

The relegation idea is completely different.. A team with 25 points in the PL has to reach the 40 mark.. You're saying they can't say they're safe until they hit that mark.. That's true, but that's different to me saying that X team won't make the playoffs because they won't hit 75 points..

The fans talking about the playoffs isn't anything new.. We've done it every season when we hit a little run.. In the season Newcastle were in the NPC after beating them 3-0, beating Preston 5-3 and another win away even the BBC had us as playoff hopefuls, despite being around 15th and 9 points off..

I bet Ipswich fans are thinking now and calculating how many points they need to make the playoffs after going on a good run.. It's illogical to suggest they're in with a chance.. Them on 30 points need 45 from 21, that's near record breaking form.. It's illogical.

[Rampant Rob]

Well.. What chance would you have it? A good chance? 50-50? I'd say there is less than 15% chance we'd make the playoffs..

I agree with what your saying that playoffs would be difficult. But how do you come to such a precise figure of 15%

Is that just plucked out of the air or are there any stats to back that up?

[Asanovic]

This league is illogical.

In December 03, Palace were in the bottom half, having spent all season there to that point, including a stint in the bottom three (from memory).

They were promoted in May.

I'm not suggesting for a minute we should think we can go and do that, but it gives an indication of how utterly batshit this league is. Peterborough are beating Cardiff and Hull away, then getting tanked against Bristol City. We haven't won in three and we're only six points off.

My prediction is there's someone in the league that will make the top six that at this moment in time no one would have predicted. Don't know who, but this division is never straightforward.