Sussex Ram

As you can all tell, I had totally forgotten about the BSM cup. I also hadn’t fully appreciated the weird timings of the games, meaning we’ll have played 2 more than Barnsley and P’Boro this time next week. This all plays in our favour (assuming we get a positive result against Northampton) as you’d always rather have points on the board than games in hand- even if against lower placed sides. 

As Dom Dietrich might say, these are “take it or leave it” stats. Below is my attempt at showing the league position of the opponents our direct competitors face on the run in:

Portsmouth- 12 2 17 3 5 11 7- average 8.14

Derby- 14 9 1 12 10 20 24- average 12.9

Bolton- 8 18 13 1 17 23 4- average 12

P’Boro- 24 10 23 6 22 13 21 3- average 15.3

Barnsley- 20 19 16 8 18 1 9 14- average 13.1

I haven’t considered home or away ties, but on the face it Portsmouth have by far the hardest run in, playing us, Bolton and Barnsley. My personal preference would be for them to beat Barnsley and Bolton, let them take the title, and it gives us more breathing space on the final day. But looking at it another way, if we can beat them on 2 April and other results go against them, might we be looking at a title push?? I would love that, for B4 if nothing else.

Peterborough have the easiest run in and face all three bottom teams, although I noticed they are one of only four teams to play midweek before the final game of the season- which for them is a massive 6-pointer against Bolton.

Our games seem to get “easier” as time goes on, whereas others are more mixed. Portsmouth finish against one the form teams of Europe (I’d guess?) in Lincoln. Let’s see if the Imps are still averaging three goals a game by then- if they are, they might well finish 4th or 5th!

Final point- our GD is 4 better than Portsmouth, 7 better than Bolton and P’Boro and 13 better than Barnsley. That could well be the half point advantage that makes a difference come 27th April…

Does anyone know how to start a poll?! On Monday night, do people want to see Portsmouth win, Bolton win, or a draw?

Portsmouth played 19, 42 points.

Bolton played 18, 39 points.

Derby played 19, 36 points.

I’ll start by saying I’d rather see Bolton win, and then we’re 6 points off top with a game in hand on one of those teams.

I will also keep a close eye on this, but not because I am Hereford based (sorry!). It’s more that I’ve often wondered about regional Rams groups, and how to access those easily for people who are “exiled” as you put it.

I wonder if someone like @angieramor another connected to RamsTrust might know if there is a network of regional fan groups?

Having watched the extended highlights back, a few comments to stir the pot.

Those saying Sibley could/should have laid in Max Bird instead of shooting (and Paul Warne said so in his post match interview), I disagree. When Sibley gets the ball, Bird slows down and doesn’t bomb forward- or turn his head/scan to see their left back moving over fast to cover. A sign to me that Bird isn’t a natural 10. If Sibley releases to Bird there, a goal is very unlikely so I think it’s the right decision. Can’t we just give Sibley credit for a well taken goal?

It’s a red card. 3:55 of the RamsTV highlights. You only get a 4 second snippet of the act, so eyes peeled, but the defender does sneak an elbow and (unbelievably) catches Collins flush, despite not being able to see exactly where JC was behind him. 

Those questioning the triple change: personnel wise it seemed like for like rather than defensively minded, with Nelson at full back to replace Ward. At 2-0 they have to press forward, so I am guessing the tactic was to soak that up and counter, with fresh pace of TJJ and Barkz, and NML too. It worked! Almost worked twice (how funny was it to see Bradley among the charge in that final chance?! He looked like he just joined in a run with the lads, no idea where he was going 😂 ). Sometimes inviting pressure late in games backfires, and it can make the fans nervous, but with a two goal cushion you can afford one slip up and it creates chances to kill the game on the break.

James Collins was inches away from two goals today, but fine margins make all the difference- both to the result, and people’s perception of him on this forum. I saw a post from Derby Retweets that said, across English domestic competition, only three players have scored more goals than James Collins since he started his career in 2009/10. Thats Harry Kane (251), Jordan Rhodes (226) and Sergio Aguero (217) all better than JC’s 202. Billy Sharp with 190 and Charlie Austin with 188, for reference. Not bad company… and proof that he DOES score goals. As well as work hard, gets in good positions (mostly) and- crucially- he stays fit. With Wash, Wags And TJJ all either recently or currently injured, I think people simply don’t give JC enough credit. I’m not saying he’s a world beater, and he does miss chances- but he brings a lot to this team in League One.

As soon as the third went in, Warne should have pulled NML for Brown. That’s a very small criticism for Warne after a great run of results, some sound team selections in the face of injury troubles, some slightly better subs, and better tactical play. This is where our squad depth is starting to show and will hopefully separate us from the pack as injuries and suspensions thicken over the busy Christmas period.

I didn’t know B4 personally, but after 5 league wins on the spin I can’t help but think about what he’d be posting on here today. We should enjoy this while it’s good. And hope it stays good.

1 hour ago, Ilkestonian said:

One of my mates can't make it today so I have a spare adult ticket if anyone is interested - £30 face value.

Yes please- I’ll message you!

Asking for a friend, who lives local to Leyton Orient. If he were to turn up to an away pub on the day (if there is one designated?) what are the chances of finding a group of like minded Rams with a spare ticket? I think it’s highly unlikely, but I said I’d check.

Who is it on here that, from time to time, produces a version of the league table with our results against each side home and away? I would love to see that now. Last season it was a really useful visual reference, and clearly showed our lack of points away from home against the better sides. This season, I get the sense that we have already played nearly all of the top half (?) meaning that the run into the end of the year should be against (theoretically) weaker opposition, and presents a good opportunity to go on a run of league results- which is precisely what we need.

And yes, I can’t be bothered to build it myself 😆 

Who is it on here that, from time to time, produces a version of the league table with our results against each side home and away? I would love to see that now. Last season it was a really useful visual reference, and clearly showed our lack of points away from home against the better sides. This season, I get the sense that we have already played nearly all of the top half (?) meaning that the run into the end of the year should be against (theoretically) weaker opposition, and presents a good opportunity to go on a run of league results- which is precisely what we need.

And yes, I can’t be bothered to build it myself 😆 

Can anyone on here tell me the names of the three under 15s that went to Man Utd back in 2021?

It’s VERY early days, but 4 of our first 6 league games are against sides that have won 3 of their first 4 matches. Adjusting for Wigan’s points deduction, we will have played the first, third, fourth and fifth placed teams in the current league table. Obviously the table will shuffle and settle over time, but it draws into focus just how tough our starting fixtures are.

That tough start is no excuse for poor results though. On the contrary, playing teams that are expected to be around us at the top come May means we need positive results even more.
 

I think I’m right in saying that last season we didn’t win a single away fixture against any of the teams that finished in the top 14. That obviously has to be an area of improvement if we want to push for promotion. In my opinion, this away double header (P’Boro and Bolton) is the first real litmus test for this group. It’s going to be a really tough assignment- we’ve just lost three to injury (albeit only two starters) and even with reinforcements possibly arriving in the week, they are highly unlikely to be settled or fit enough to have a major impact on the next two fixtures. 
 

This is where the players and staff earn their money. I’m hopeful. I’m fascinated to see how it plays out.

11 hours ago, caymanram said:

After all the emphasis on PW and his fitness regimes etc I find it weird that our players- more so than any of the opposition ones faced thus far - seem so knackered and out on their feet for the last 20 mins or so. 
I don’t see us pressing anywhere near as much as last season as a team ( one or two individuals do) and yet we seem more unfit than other teams. Strange….

I thought this after about 60-70 minutes, as it sounded from Radio Derby that we were increasingly on the back foot. Seeing out a single goal lead becomes easier when the opposition tires and we have better conditioning/stamina. But that didn’t seem to be the case at all, from what I am hearing. In fact, it seemed like they had the upper hand on us in the fitness stakes. Is that a fair assessment? If so, what was the point of all those double and triple sessions in Spain if we can’t use it to our advantage only 4 games into the season?

In fairness, there were a few on the pitch today that didn’t do the Warne preseason, and a few subs who have been injured for a few weeks and therefore not match fit. But if we are going to do the season with such a small squad, we need all our players to be able to do the full 90 (or 100, with added time) without tiring significantly if we want to avoid the inevitable League 1 sucker punch equalisers.

There’s only one natural wide player in that first 11, in NML. I bet Warne is desperate for Sibs or Barks back fit to give him more options there. Also find it strange that Elder didn’t get the nod over Fozzy at LB. Fozzy more defensively reliable, I guess?

U18s are 3-0 up at half time against Newcastle. Looks like they missed an early penalty.

Scorers and line up found at the below link:

https://uk.soccerway.com/matches/2023/08/19/england/premier-academy-league/derby-county-fc-under-18-academy/newcastle-united-fc-under-18-academy/4203210/

I’ll answer the questions directly. Should we be patient? Yes, we should. I actually think we have no choice as fans to be patient, because for all the talk of “Warne out”, I just cannot see a world in which David Clowes sacks him after three league games. I could be wrong, but I don't think he’ll sack him after 10 or 23, unless he loses the dressing room and we start to free fall. That’s not only because it goes against DC’s publicly stated aim of stabilising the club (a not so veiled jab at the turmoil of the Morris years) but also because we can’t afford to pay off four coaches with three years (?) left on their contract!

It’s an interesting point that some are saying “we’re only three games in” and others are pointing out that Warne has been in place for nearly a year. Both valid views. The question becomes, does he get a clean slate for this season? I’m tempted to say yes. Last season he was making do with a threadbare squad that wasn’t his, and wasn’t suited to his style of play. I’m a generous guy, so I’m willing to judge him on 23/24 alone now he has managed to sign some wing backs and bring 7 of his own players into the squad, and go through pre season with them.

Second question: how does it improve? Now that is the million dollar question! For me, this is the first real test of Paul Warne. Does he have the humility to admit his preferred system doesn’t work? Does he have the tactical ability to reshape the team to take advantage of our players’ best attributes? Does he have the man management skills to motivate the players? To date, there has always been an excuse to fall back on- not “his” team, budget restrictions, small squad, not fit enough, etc. Some excuses do still exist (we ARE still under budget restrictions, albeit looser restrictions- and he has said he wants 2 or 3 players) but those excuses aren’t as impactful as they were. 

He’s proved in the past that he can do it. He has won promotion three times from this league. I really hope he can do it again.

Imagine you inherit a house, and it’s falling apart. You don’t put in a new bathroom and kitchen, re-wire and re-plaster, and replace all the carpets at the same time. You simply can’t- particularly if the EFL set strict limits on what you can spend.

Perhaps that is where the analogy falls down, but hopefully you get my point. The club need to fight one battle at a time. On this thread (and threads on a similar topic) we’ve had people say we should invest more in a single proven striker to get us promoted; or in the whole first team squad; or youth prospects; or a scouting team. All valid opinions with their own merits.

What I really struggle with is people who say we should be doing that all at the same time. As much as we don’t want to get hung up on the administration period, it is undoubtedly created a financial hangover which we are recovering from. It’s a process, and (as painful as it is to admit/imagine) means we could take a few years to get out of League 1.

On 06/08/2023 at 17:08, Jayram said:

I got shot down for saying something similar (but much less eloquently than you) just before the season started. The fact is that despite our tribal loyalty eventually if we end up in a cycle of selling our best youngsters and signing players for nominal fees to stay sustainable people will just drift away. Who wants to pay £28-£33 a game just to watch the likes of Stevenage or Fleetwood every season? Revenues will erode and eventually we’ll be just bobbing along in this league year in year out like Burton. There has to be some ambition and that requires spending some decent money on the standard of player who will make a difference, starting now if possible.

 

 

I think the one thing you can rely on is the support. Granted the numbers might tail off, but we had the fourth biggest gate in the EFL this weekend (behind Sunderland, Leeds, Leicester). I expect we’ll average top 20 nationally, including Prem, once the season is over. It would take a lot to erode that level of support.

On 06/08/2023 at 18:45, Jayram said:

Yes, patience is a virtue but this is football we’re talking about. If the business plan is to sell our best prospects and replace them with players bought for nominal fees year in year out to keep within budget fan interest will dwindle as will club revenue and we’ll be stuck down here for years. 
 

I don’t think it’s “the plan” or a choice to sell our best prospects and buy players for nominal fees. Last few seasons it was a necessity to keep the club in existence, and then to make ourselves as competitive as we can be with no money.

Derby 1 0 Wigan

washington 

Based on BBC Radio Derby and RamsTV interviews, I get the sense that we have been in for a number of players since returning from Spain- and we’ve been unable to get them over the line. Paul Warne said upon leaving Spain that he expected at least one more in by Fozzys testimonial. He said at the club partner Q&A (video on the DCFC app) that he spent a day on the phone to 7 agents and 3 clubs. Some of that might be exaggerated, but he also said in an interview with Dom Dietrich that we had been told moves were happening which didn’t; and that’s part of what happens in football.

Couple that with his comments pre/post Sheff Utd, in which he said “there might be something for Waggy here, there might not”, it implies to me that Waghorn is not our first choice of signing. Maybe not even our second or third! But if we can’t get anything else over the line, he might be an option. He is DEFINITELY better than nothing. And my view is that he is better (but perhaps not cheaper) than an unproven loanee.

The women’s squad is largely unchanged for 2023/24. A couple of known departures leaves the squad with 15 players for sure- and sounds like there are a couple of new arrivals in the pipeline:

https://www.dcfc.co.uk/news/2023/07/derby-county-women-confirm-retained-list-ahead-of-202324-season

On 12/07/2023 at 20:49, LeedsCityRam said:

Remember, this isn't about holding David Clowes to account - its about his successors as club owners, the future Mel Morris & the future three Amigos. We never know how owners can turn out - safe to say no-one in 2015 would have predicted 2021/22.

I really liked this post, very well put. But isn’t it remarkable that you, like probably 99% of the fan base, have implicit trust in David Clowes? I put myself firmly in that boat, by the way- the manner in which he has gone about things has utterly convinced me of his good intentions and sound decision making. Did we feel that way about Mel Morris one year into his tenure?

I’m not for a second comparing the two, really I’m not. I believe that in 25-30 years time, we’ll look back at this ownership period with a sense of “thank goodness for Clowes”, regardless of whether we get promoted or not. I can’t say we’ll ever feel the same about Morris.  I’m just saying that the supporter board will also protect the club and give the fans a say in times of strong ownership too.

2 hours ago, Ghost of Clough said:

I'm disappointed 'academy' isn't included in the SB discussion topics, as I feel it should be a key pillar of our club. At least the finances are included (accounts). I hope at least 1 member of the SB will understand the accounts and not just look at the key figures (profit and wages) 😅

I think this is an interesting point. The article states that “football is not an area of discussion” for the proposed board, and the academy is explicitly mentioned as falling in that “football” category. I know you’re very involved/knowledgeable about the academy, so if you think it forms an integral pillar of the club, would you be willing to raise that as a comment to the consultation?

It looks like the Supporters Board will be more concerned with protecting what makes the club what it is- colours, ground, culture, values, social responsibility. And also making sure no one ever again speculates financially to the extent of threatening the clubs existence. The only argument I could see is that the academy has role to play locally in schools etc. as a community organisation- and hence should form part of the remit of the board?

18 minutes ago, jimtastic56 said:

So you would be happy to go into next season with what we have . That’s fine , but let’s have no moaning or booing 10 games in.

I think Paul Warne, most fans, and probably the squad recognise the need for another 3 or 4 (open to debate now Knight has gone) additions before the window closes- and I am guessing all of those will be attacking players. But with 4ish weeks until the first league game, and 8ish weeks until the window closes, and with no loan signings as of yet- I think we’re in a good place so far. Time will tell.

Paul Warne has made a few comments along the lines of “it’s not the best eleven that wins the league, it’s the best squad”. He’s also repeatedly said that 22 is the number he wants in that squad. Going back to front, right to left, and listing players in what I expect most people would say is their favoured position:

Wildsmith

Vickers

Loach

Ward

Nelson

Cashin

Bradley

Fozzy

Rooney

Elder

Mendez-Laing

Hourihane

Smith

Bird

Thomson

Sibley

Barkhuizen

Collins

Washington

I’ve excluded knight on the basis he is almost certainly out the door. I’ve included Rooney, even though some might say he will feature mostly for the 21s. I’ve included Thomson, even though he could well be out on loan again.

Who have I forgotten? That list comes to 19. I would personally hope that Loach would not count towards the 22- so it implies 4 more in? Warne said in interview he wants one to cover full back; I’d expect two strikers; and then a creative midfielder. 

Bearing in mind we have not loaned anyone yet, it looks promising.

It’s on the app now!

Sky’s thoughtless decision to move this to Friday night means tickets went to general sale, allowing me to buy tickets for me and a friend. Our first away game in almost exactly a year (respectable 0-0 at Fulham). I almost feel guilty, as there are lots of fans that would have gone to this if it were 3pm Saturday- but as a south coast fan with only one game last year, it’s probably my only shot at getting an away ticket this season! Excited.

This one is going to be all about how well the team recover physically from Tuesday. NML will be fresh, others didn’t play the full 90, and rumours of Barkz and maybe Knight back in squad. May be wishful thinking, but we’ll need to maintain high intensity.

Any tips for away friendly pubs nearby?