Icomeinpeace

14 minutes ago, Crewton said:

Well, IF he's been putting in £1.5M per month since the pandemic began (say) that's £18M p.a out of that £25M p.a less tax. Then you're assuming he's still got £500M to invest - I've no idea if that's the case. It's probably not self-funding.

No doubt, if he did pay off HMRC, that would make the club more attractive, but would he want more for it as a result?

We don't know yet what else he's willing to do to sweeten any purchase for a Buyer - if he wants some redemption, he might be willing to make further sacrifices.

 

I believe I've read elsewhere that Mel's other business interests have been doing well so although he may have spent 200m and have 300 to fall back on from that he's actually been making money elsewhere... the timing of his decision is "odd"  

1 minute ago, sage said:

I'm not going to get involved in this juvenile bottom related banter 

But if you want to, crack on. 

Turns out it wasn't her .... must have been a bum steer

Blimey the potential administrator comes with, shall we say "baggage"

https://the72.co.uk/250919/what-do-we-know-about-andrew-hosking-andrew-andronikou-and-quantuma-Derby-countys-likely-administrators/ 

2 hours ago, I know nuffin said:

Silly question. If we are in administration isn't it down to the administrators to pay the wages, even if it means using their own money until they can get what was the club's money in. 

It's a question not a statement. Does anybody know

No they don't use their own money - in fact their fees are added to the debt as are any legal costs that may in some cases be incurred during the process - its sometimes said that the first thing any potential administrator checks is that their own fees can be paid at the end of the process (even if that end is liquidation). I believe Kieran Maguire said Bury’s administrators were charging £250 per hour..... 

12 minutes ago, Ramtastic ones said:

Most of my my best friends are trees or Leeds fans - I live in Lincolnshire - so no axe to to grind my red friend. ?

The potential for profit is in the fan base. How many teams in all divisions have the potential that we and several others in the championship and div one have?

The revenue potential is there.

 

 

 

 

I love the optimism but the reality is that clubs - in the top divisions at least - long since stopped being able to fund operations from the fans directly i.e gate receipts, merch and match day activity. Look at a club like Arsenal - turnover of £403m  in 2018 - gate and match income £99m.  And that's when they can rely on a full stadium and decent return on away support. They got twice that income from TV rights. Brighton - £139m turnover - match income £19m (TV money £110m).... Burnley turnover 139million, match income just 6million, TV money 122m. So Derby without any real TV money in league 1..... sorry I'll stop it now as it really is depressing. 

7 minutes ago, IslandExile said:

 

Just leave us alone.

Things are bad enough as it is without having a Forest fan ramming it down our throats just how bad.

Sorry - not trying to rub anything in, honestly wish you all the best of luck

4 hours ago, Ramtastic ones said:

Businesses look at the future potential for profit, not just assets and current profit, as they reflect the performance of the current board of directors, not what a future board of directors might realise.

They do you're right - but where is the potential for profit? You have to take a  balanced look at any potential prospects. I'm not having a go here because I'm a red. I think my posts show I have no issues with Derby at all, but as we've said you're around +£30-60 million in immediate debt, and in administration so any funds the club do have will go to paying your creditors, you've already loaned against your physical assets so no chance to use them to raise funds, with the multiple points deductions you'll in all likelihood be playing in a lower league with even less TV money, potentially a lower gate and be less attractive to sponsors plus you have very few players (even saleable ones) and an embargo on transfers .... if you had a spare £40 million to spare to invest in a club in all honestly why would you use it to effectively just pay off the debt of Derby and have nothing to invest and be in that league and position when you could probably buy a team like Sunderland and use the funds to invest in straight away and get promotion rather than spend a few years just trying to get Derby back on an even keel. I really struggle to the upside for any potential owner - at least any reputable one.    

I think the real state of the finances will only become clear over the next few weeks and months and it could get really ugly. I've heard that Kieran McGuire, the University of Liverpool football finance lecturer who does a podcast called The Price of Football  has reportedly said that he's had off the record conversations with people connected to the club and the suggestion has been that potential buyer(s) have been put off by the level of debt in the accounts. Now the "published" debt is around £37 million, I think that the deeper debt may be much higher.  

Purely speculation but MSD are the wild card in all this - what if they call in the loan? You'd think given his MO that Mel banked on and made assurance to MSD about the riches that would come with promotion with the ground then being used as collateral...  what if they think they can make more money selling or developing the site and therefore call it in, would Mel cover it? 

7 minutes ago, jono said:

only too aware of that, hence the second part of my post. 

Sorry yes you're right - I take very much the same approach, it doesn't matter exactly why there's a huge hole in the life raft, just focus on staying afloat... 

8 minutes ago, CornwallRam said:

I think we as Derby fans all realise that relegation is 99.9% certain. 

To me, that helps put an end to another dilemma. I love going to the Brian Clough/East Midlands Derby. I always prefer Derby and Forest to be in the same division. However, I also quite enjoy watching Forest in a relegation battle. In most years I generally want them to stay up - albeit only just. This season I don't have to feel dirty watching Forest in April and hoping they win. 

In the nicest possible way - I really hope Forest maintain their current form and finish below us - especially if we have a 21 point penalty.

 

Bless you and thanks - agree I always enjoy a good Derby game myself - joy was unrestrained yesterday though with Hughton's style of play not holding the team back and we're only 9 points off the play-offs !!! Many think Cooper is a good choice as the new manager which looks pretty much a done deal. Best of luck I wouldn't wish your current plight on any club, even you!!! COYReds     

2 minutes ago, jono said:

It’s a post mortem .. I am not really interested and the past 

what happens next is the most critical thing

I seems reasonably certain on the basis of this that we will get -4 for the FFP and -12 for the admin (if it happens) so -16 If I understood it all 

After that it rather depends what other suspended or yet to be found “crimes” that the EFL want to stick on us and if they will come all at once or we get hit again next season. 
 

None of this matters at all unless administrators keep us running and new owners step in. Until then it’s all fog and speculation 

 

Hold on to your hat... so the number's that are being touted are 12 for administration, 12 instead of 9 for the late submission of accounts (which Mel admitted in the interview), 12 for 1st year FFP breach then a further 9×2 for two further years. There could also be 3 pts (suspended) for not paying players and, this is a new one because of administration but I believe there's 15 pts if you can't settle 25% of creditors immediately - I make that around 72 points... 

1 minute ago, kevinhectoring said:

So the administrators do a CVA with cocu and HMRC, slash the wages and sell players in Jan where it makes sense.  Still a going concern it’s just that we might end up in league 2 

I wouldn't begin to know how it could be settled as these things are a quagmire... that's now the job of the administrator, who once appointed will have 8 weeks to put a plan together. The things you mention could all be on the table, the problem is they might not be.. Cocu et al could say no we want paying asap, HMRC might not agree and your other creditors could also play hardball. I'm a very glass half full kind of bloke and I hope this can be sorted for you guys - but its a very very precarious position to be in... It's like dominoes and all it takes is a few not to fall and you're screwed...  

5 minutes ago, kevinhectoring said:

Why do you and Paul Merson think this? Seems to make no sense. The entire value of the club is surely dependent on it being an EFl member and a going concern. So is the value of the stadium. 

But its in danger of not being a going concern. The club are a business and like all businesses it's saleable value is based on the money it can make on the day-to-day plus the value of its assets. The administrators look at what it owes and how it can pay back that money through the sale of its assets and projected income over a period of time. The club are in all probability (sorry) going to be relegated so your income will likely fall from lower attendances, not a given but a probable, your value from sponsorship will fall as you'll in League 1, you don't own your stadium so you can't sell that, at present all you own is the contracts of your players. You look at the current squad and you have assets with some value like Sibley and Buchanan but not such else.

So you owe +£30 million pounds.... and your projected income is low and going to get lower and you own pretty much nothing. The administrator's only job is pay off your owings, if they rule that you are not a viable business so there's no likelihood of you meeting your current and future obligations then they can order the club be liquidated as the only way for the creditors to get anything back.   

19 minutes ago, kevinhectoring said:

I think MSD has security over the stadium. 

I believe that is right - the loan was for 80m, so Mel doesn't even own the stadium. It's perhaps worth noting that when some have a go at the EFL for them not giving Derby a loan, they didn't decide not to, Derby didn't meet the criteria laid out for the loan which others did.  

44 minutes ago, IslandExile said:

Those slamming Mel should pause for a moment to think about his intentions.

I do not - for a minute - think he's intended to run the club down.

He has spent millions, not to run the club into debt, but to chase the dream. We all supported that chase.

Even though he's managed things badly, which he admits, I do believe that he genuinely thinks the only way he can get new owners in is to put the club into administration.

I'm very far from happy about that, actually been crying about it, but I think it's sincere on his part.

As a Forest fan I have no axe to grind here and as I've said I feeling genuinely appalled at what's happened to your club but can I just say that I and I suspect many external observers will find your attitude incredibly generous almost to point of disbelief. I mean of course he wanted success everyone does, but the way he's gone about it is surely unforgiveable. He has knowingly and willingly sold/mortgaged almost every bit of your club. He has recklessly played fast and loose with regulations and guidelines, not just of the EFL but of the  HMRC. These regulations aren't  new and cannot be described as anti-Derby - instead he has at every turn it seems taken decisions that would/will have dire consequences for the whole DCFC institution; the club, the players business the length and breadth of the city.... 

As for what happens now, well the the administrators are in control. Any legal actions being taken by creditors will stop so you can't go in to compulsory liquidation (moratorium). The administrator will put a plan together and must submit that proposals to all creditors within 8 weeks of the administration starting.

The administrators role is to act in the interests of eh people who are owed money by Derby, not in not Derby's interests, and if they  believe that the club is not a viable entity going forward then the administrators can/will liquidate the company.

Given the info Mel just implied re some of the outstanding issues, I hate to say it but liquation is really not out of the question at all. Sorry guys

re buyers- the thing to consider is that as DCFC doesn't own the stadium of the training ground either I believe, the club's only assets are the players - so not much. Plus your debt is around £37 Million as its 26 Million to HMRC, 6 Million in transfer fees and 5 Million roughly to Cocu and his staff. So any new buyer is looking at buying a club and paying off those debts, when they only get the players for it .... and you'll probably be in League 21 after a +20 points deduction .... seriously guys, good luck.

As a Forest fan I feel for you guys, it's not your fault but you find your club utterly screwed by someone who has seemingly gone insane while in charge. We had a vaguely similar issue when Nigel Doherty, a lifelong fan bought us, pumped in over 100 million and made bad decision after bad decision, football's a hard hard game to get involved in but from outside it does look like MM has completely lost the plot.

You can't blame the EFL, on the face of it Mel had all the right credentials to be a fit and proper owner and while there look to be many points at which he should have been stopped from what he was doing you have to assume that no one thought he was actually doing what he was doing and seemingly submitting at best vague accounts, at worst downright fraudulent. COVID didn't help anyone but its not to blame either.  

A 12 point deduction is bad but worse looks like its coming and you have to think you can't stay up. I wish you luck in the first division. 

4 hours ago, Chester40 said:

So what's the average Forest fan's opinion on where things have gone/are going wrong? Hughton has generally been a very steady if slightly conservative hand wherever he has been. Exactly the manager you needed I'd have guessed - as over the last 5 years + you were the basket-case club we could only aspire to be! He seems to have come in, all the turmoil has subsided but then everything has gone deathly quiet and the season has started appallingly. 

 

I was one of those that was very supportive of his appointment but he's turned out to be less than one dimensional. Admittedly we've had injuries but we haven't addressed some of the key issues the squad has, Hughton's proved to be defensive to the point of madness and his game management has been poor - put that all together and as I say we are less than the sum of our parts. Admittedly often we've paid dearly single errors (Samba's been suspect in goal for instance) but the team has no resilience, no leaders and frankly no idea. CH then says he doesn't have the team to play how he wants but bizarrely refuses to change his tactics to get the best out of the players he  does have - that's riled up the fans no end, especially when he's had time to sort out some of the recruitment. At the moment we're treating the return of Garner on loan from Man Utd like its the second coming and will fix everything  just because he can pass the ball forward reasonably well. Meanwhile Yates has turned into a less skillful version of Ray "crab" Wilkins usually takes the ball with his back to goal an passes backwards, Colback does not more than take up space, Lyle Taylor couldn't be playing in a team that's less able to make the best of his game and Grabban might as well spend the game just passing the time plaiting his beard on the halfway line awaiting the one half chance per game he's getting. I could go on .....    

2 hours ago, Chester40 said:

I would say your Derby City analogy is weak. People do not commonly get that wrong. 

More similar is the whole West Ham stadium name...was it called the Boleyn Ground or Upton Park...no one cared either no matter how many times it was explained. 

Excellent point - similar to Celtic Park of Parkhead as well. As for signing your former players lets face it we've already tried for Buchanan and there's not a side in the Championship or half the prem that wouldn't take Sibley either at the rate he's going. Not sure we'd take any others but then our transfer policy is as shrouded in mystery as our tactics at the moment. Derbies are always unpredictable but frankly all you have to do is attack from the start and if you get an early goal we're sunk as CH will just pull the team back so as to not lose by more.  We've registered one shot on goal on the past two games so unless someone is possessed by the ghost of Gerd Muller we're unlikely to score - mind you even he couldn't have scored from the service we've given our strikers...

5 minutes ago, Reggie Greenwood said:

Take a look at fixture lists and league tables going back years. Always says Notts Forest. Will post a few up for you ?

And football in England was indeed called "soccer" originally but that is not the name that was officially adopted and agreed upon as the canon name for the game and the vagaries of a random printer's mis-spelling a hundred years ago not more dictates the name of a club for perpetuity than I don't know if your teacher wrote Philip rather than Phillip on your school report. But by all means sit in the corner of the pub chuntering in to your beer that "it is Notts - I read it once so there".... while the rest of the world just smiles in your direction, sighs and carries on with things that aren't utterly trivial. 

I had come to offer some discussion, insight and exchange about the actual game   

On 25/08/2021 at 17:18, Reggie Greenwood said:

They have been called Notts for over 100 years. Only recent comers get shirty over it 

Hi Rams fans - undercover red here and as the name says I do come in peace, never quite got my head round the bad feeling between our two sides, anyway - to your point we have not been called Notts for over 100 years - the World Famous City Ground is indeed in the county and we moved there in 1898 but of course it was not always so. Forest originally played Shinty until 1865 when a meeting was called and we decided to switch to football and so formed the NFFC which makes us the world's oldest professional football club (since County's relegation to the national league) - the team played at various places with the city but in the most basic sense the club represented the City while Notts County represented the County - pretty simple really. We hate it for the same reason you'd hate being called Derby City or Derby Town, its not your name. It is weird that while we play at a stadium outside the City while Notts County's ground Meadow Lane in inside the city limits. 

As for the game I can confirm that many of us think you have a good chance to get your first win since 2017 because for all his faults Rooney's apparently managed to at least create a fighting spirit and siege mentality which is working for you while we don't seem to know what we're doing apart from making a team that is less than the sum of its parts.