eddielewis

13 minutes ago, Ambitious said:

I've also seen they're missing almost every full-back at the club too, so will be down to playing back-up centre backs out of position. You would have to think that Warne & Co are aware, because this could be a perfect platform for CBT to come into the team and have an impact and a platform for the following 6 games. 

NML will be a problem for Northampton on Saturday - if you want a 'first goalscorer' bet. 

Their manager mentioned in his presser today he might have to call upon 35 year old striker Danny Hylton who has only been involved 4 times this season and does radio commentary for Luton Town. All the makings of first goalscorer 😂

Northampton have lost Tony Springett to Ireland under 21's and their striker Kieron Bowie to Scotland Under 21's. So bare bones up front for them on Saturday.

12 hours ago, DarkFruitsRam7 said:

Not trying to start a Pearce pile on, but what point is he trying to make about the independent regulator here? That they would have stopped Morris?

 

Another aspect possibly how the Football Regulator would have dealt with our situation is the establishment of a licencing structure with all clubs, similar to what they have in France and Germany. Any club that is spending far beyond their means or a owner that is mistreating their club (as we currently see with reading) will have their licence downgraded to a provisional (for 3 years) or even in harsher situations maybe even have their licence taken away (the parliament bill states that will be a last resort)

Good examples of the licencing structure in action in the above countries recently have been Kaiserslautern and Bordeaux who were deep financial turmoil after being reckless with spending got relegated to the depths of their respective lower professional divisions and were given a similar provisional licences to get their finances in order and are now on a path to being more sustainably run.

Essentially it creates a more formal lay of the land for owners to say 'you can only spend this amount otherwise there will be trouble!'. I suspect we will see initially lots of clubs downgraded to provisional licences to get their finances in order (outstanding debts, paying taxes etc). The regulator has to be strict and firm from the get go. What will be interesting however is the EFL going to punish clubs themselves if a club downgraded to a provisional licence i.e. points deduction (is there a need?)

Wycombe's 2 goals against them on Saturday are very much in Sibley's locker

18 minutes ago, eddielewis said:

Whilst Peterborough on the face of it have the 'easiest' run in I would consider that their game against Port Vale 3 days after Wembley cup final a massive banana skin alongside that away fixture vs Cheltenham (who were unlucky not to beat Barnsley at the weekend) on the tuesday of the final week. You want to avoid teams who still have something to play for. Their constant 2 games a week schedule you would think will make them vulnerable to fatigue in games. Even their away game vs Orient before the pizza cup final you would think for those players to try and not get injured and miss playing at Wembley.

For further context on the teams near the bottom last season during the last 7 games

Cambridge Won 4 drew 1 lost 2

Morecambe Won 4 drew 1 lost 2

MK Dons Drew 5 times and Lost 2

Some teams in the relegation scrap are going to wake up and snatch points off people and I'm glad we don't play Cambridge till near the end where it might not mean much hopefully for either side.

19 minutes ago, Sussex Ram said:

As Dom Dietrich might say, these are “take it or leave it” stats. Below is my attempt at showing the league position of the opponents our direct competitors face on the run in:

Portsmouth- 12 2 17 3 5 11 7- average 8.14

Derby- 14 9 1 12 10 20 24- average 12.9

Bolton- 8 18 13 1 17 23 4- average 12

P’Boro- 24 10 23 6 22 13 21 3- average 15.3

Barnsley- 20 19 16 8 18 1 9 14- average 13.1

I haven’t considered home or away ties, but on the face it Portsmouth have by far the hardest run in, playing us, Bolton and Barnsley. My personal preference would be for them to beat Barnsley and Bolton, let them take the title, and it gives us more breathing space on the final day. But looking at it another way, if we can beat them on 2 April and other results go against them, might we be looking at a title push?? I would love that, for B4 if nothing else.

Peterborough have the easiest run in and face all three bottom teams, although I noticed they are one of only four teams to play midweek before the final game of the season- which for them is a massive 6-pointer against Bolton.

Our games seem to get “easier” as time goes on, whereas others are more mixed. Portsmouth finish against one the form teams of Europe (I’d guess?) in Lincoln. Let’s see if the Imps are still averaging three goals a game by then- if they are, they might well finish 4th or 5th!

Final point- our GD is 4 better than Portsmouth, 7 better than Bolton and P’Boro and 13 better than Barnsley. That could well be the half point advantage that makes a difference come 27th April…

Whilst Peterborough on the face of it have the 'easiest' run in I would consider that their game against Port Vale 3 days after Wembley cup final a massive banana skin alongside that away fixture vs Cheltenham (who were unlucky not to beat Barnsley at the weekend) on the tuesday of the final week. You want to avoid teams who still have something to play for. Their constant 2 games a week schedule you would think will make them vulnerable to fatigue in games. Even their away game vs Orient before the pizza cup final you would think for those players to try and not get injured and miss playing at Wembley.

Agree I'd say we need around 4 wins depending on how quickly Barnsley and Peterborough pick themselves up

Football web pages prediction update after today's results

Games opening up this match has been a heavyweight scrap

59 minutes ago, Dryhorce said:

100th game for Matthew Todd tonight at Dunfermline 22 goal scoring midfielder that makes good runs arriving late into the box to get goals

I think he could play at a higher level on what I've saw tonight 

I think BBC Scotland spotted you scouting this player tonight 

Updated Predicted table from footballwebpages

Burton with a late goal back 2-1

24 minutes ago, Mr. P said:

Is Adams one booking away from a suspension? 

5 yellows before match 19 one match ban

10 yellows before match 37 two match ban

15 yellows over 46 games 3 match ban

Ebou is on 5 (4 with us 1 with Cardiff)

On 02/03/2024 at 17:10, eddielewis said:

Update after today's results 

Barnsley winning away has tipped the odds to them but it's still very tight

Update after today's results

The table's algorithm is still playing it safe got us winning 1 and drawing the other away games.

Just now, Bessie1 said:

Lincoln last 8 games - 6 wins, 2 draws - that’s some run!  (I’ve stuck my neck out and assumed they’ll win today!)

Just looking at their remaining games they could sneak in the play off spots. Could also help us out last game of the season against Portsmouth.

16 minutes ago, MadAmster said:

If we went to 75% for the playing staff and then added the £10M for the non playing staff we'd be in the red...  and even further so with all the other costs.

I'm not suggesting we need to go anywhere near that limit because we already have a good league 1 squad by spending 45% 

It would be interesting as I say what would be the our internal limits for next season based on which league we are in.

Will we keep it around this percentage if we don't go up but just fine tune ie Hourihane is a big earner and will probably leave will we replace like for like in terms of wages or find a cheaper option.

And if we do go up what will be limit as wages will naturally go up in terms of the calibre of players we will need. Obviously in the Champ these turnover rules do not apply it would be sensible to stick to this principle.

Interesting how were only at 45% turnover/spend when league 1 clubs can be up to 75%.

Be a good question to ask how far close to the limit would Clowes take the playing budget when the restrictions are lifted.

We get tarnished by other clubs around us that were big spenders but it's far from the case.

3 hours ago, 8Leeds said:

He reminds me a little of a young Cameron Jerome

For me he reminds me more of Michael Ricketts when he was at Bolton. Has the physicality to be 9 when he wants but has the movement of a 10 to drag defenders out. 

Unless Warne has a magic trick inside his bobble hat and finds out Sibley and Bird have ancestry for the Faroe Islands which warrants them a call up I doubt the Northampton game is getting postponed.

14 minutes ago, Tamworthram said:

Portsmouth aren't running away with it and I don't quite get the point you are making about them finishing 8th last season. The year before last Plymouth finished 7th and Ipswich finished 11th, so what's your point?

It is a weaker league than last season without the teams promoted but it's still not an open goal. I haven't investigated all the signings each team has made but haven't Portsmouth, Bolton and Barnsley strengthened their squads (to a greater extent than we've been able to)?

To add further context to your point these have been the promoted teams the past 5 seasons prior to covid and their previous position. 

18/19 Luton 1st (league 2 promoted)  Barnsley 2nd (champ relegated) Charlton 3rd POW (6th)

17/18 Wigan 1st (champ relegated) Blackburn 2nd  (champ relegated)  Rotherham 4th POW (champ relegated) 

16/17 Sheff Utd 1st (11th) Bolton 2nd (champ relegated) Millwall 6th POW (4th)

15/16 Wigan 1st (champ relegated) Burton 2nd (league 2 promoted) Barnsley 6th POW (11th)

14/15 Bristol C 1st (13th) MK Dons (11th) Preston 4th POW (3rd)

So in all League 1 has no pattern for being harder or weaker and except for 17/18 there has not been more than 1 team coming down that has gained promotion immediately. 

10 hours ago, plymouthram said:

So according to this predicted list, Portsmouth are going to remain unbeaten in their last 10 games with Blackpool, Peterboro, Wycombe, Bolton and Lincoln to play away with home games against Burton, Barnsley, Derby, Shrewsbury and Wigan.

This algorithm for the predicted table seems to play it very safe especially for the higher teams away from home. We are also predicted to go unbeaten but go with 1 win and 4 draws in the remaining away fixtures but considering the opposition we have I would say we better that. If we win against Bristol irrespective of the result between Barnsley/Bolton this coming tuesday I think this table will put us back into 2nd.

I miss the fivethirtyeight interactive website that recently got bought out by nbc in america and then shut down. They had predicted tables for every league in the world with percentages for every team of how likely they will finish.  

Pink Bobble hat. Warne out surely!!

Did the job today against a Port Vale side that looked condemned. Flat 2 in midfield communicated well enough and wingbacks used the ball well which is crucial in that formation. You'd be a fool to think we will have that amount of time and space on the ball today in any of the other 10 games left. We have a much much harder task against a very bipolar Bristol Rovers next week. We're in it to win it!

On 27/02/2024 at 22:14, eddielewis said:

Tonight's predicted table update 

Tight is an understatement!

Update after today's results 

Barnsley winning away has tipped the odds to them but it's still very tight

5 minutes ago, Caerphilly Ram said:

Either a back 3 of Nelson, Cashin and Bradley with Ward and Sibley at wing back? Or a back 4 of…..someone…it’s a 3 isn’t it. Some sort of 3-4-3?

                     Wildsmith

        Nelson   Bradley   Cashin

Ward     Adams      Bird          Sibley

     NML        Gayle     Barkhuizen 

Either way this set up just isolates Gayle.

The only way to get something out of his type of striker is to have someone just never more than 5-10 yards behind so they can latch onto his movement of defenders.

If Bird and Adams are playing that flat 2 were gonna need Sibley and Ward to not give the ball away so easily when we've committed to attacks.