rammieib

11 hours ago, therealhantsram said:

Youve conveniently missed the current weeks figure from that list. Which is 42 percent.

My estimate earlier was around 50% week on week growth. Looking at your figures I was a little high. The average is axtually 42% week on week growth. 

So this last week is a bang average week of growth.

So sadly the trend is not down. It's flat. In other words it is proportional to the number of people infected. 

And that is the text book definition of exponential growth.

 

 

Government data only goes out to the 14th July. When is your average of 42% from?

Again - over how many days/weeks does something need to be going up for it to be called Exponential Growth?

If I go back to the 18th May, and work to today, and average the % increase out then the number is 39% - which is pretty much the same as yours.

I think my point and why I disagree on the phrase to call it exponential is that its not a linear increase of 40% day on day, its clear to see two decreasing trends in the graph below where growth was slowing down. 

We've now had three consecutive days of the number of cases report (not specimen date) going down - Yes I completely understand the weekend reduces the numbers but schools are now starting to close. Ultimately, what we gain on the schools closing will probably be offset on the night clubs opening up - but most of these will only be actual symptomatic cases, unlike the swathes of asymptomatic cases from the schools.

Again, I don't think we are too far away from hitting the next peak is my own opinion.

29 minutes ago, therealhantsram said:

Correct. But that's due to lockdowns we have had.

 

Thats incorrect. Exponential means proportional to the thing itself. Over the last 4 to 5 weeks infections have been growing at a pretty consistent rate of around 50% a week. That's exactly what an exponential increase means.

14th June = 32%

21st June = 40%

28th June = 70%

5th July = 44%

12th July = 25%

That’s the week of week % increase over the last five weeks.

Data from Gov website.

That’s not exponential - that’s a slowing down!!!
 

32 minutes ago, B4ev6is said:

Oh come we are not that bad even saturday we played well and I think we shall get over 20k easily 

No chance B4. Don't get your hopes up. 15 to 17 very max.

8k ST holders, of which 10% may decline. Another 6 to 8k buying match tickets. 500 away fans. Still, its a crowd, its football and I'll take it.

1 hour ago, Charlotte Ram said:

Government guidance, article in Daily telegraph

Following the promotion of Norwich City, Watford and Brentford from the Championship last season, only the west London club would fall under that 20,000 capacity at their Brentford Community Stadium (17,250), meaning they could have the option to ignore the use of Covid passports when fans return in great numbers this month.

The Premier League could choose to adopt a uniform approach though, which would see Brentford fall in line with the other 19 clubs and enforce Covid passports for supporters to gain entry.

While most Championship clubs would be under pressure to introduce them, most League One and Two teams would not be.

One Championship club that could be spared is Peterborough United, whose stadium holds only 15,000 and whose owner, Darragh MacAnthony, last week branded plans to roll out Covid certification a “disgrace”, accusing the measure of “punishing” the young.

 

Thanks. Nothing has gone mainstream yet on this, checked the EFL site as well.

Maybe its all advisory guidance to see what clubs may adopt, but leave it to the clubs?

7 minutes ago, Charlotte Ram said:

Please see the post below this one where I altered the post as I could not edit this one, that post is more accurate

But you said there was a EFL rules and referred to 20,000 fans yet I’ve not seen this anywhere.

1 hour ago, Stive Pesley said:

We almost certainly will - because it's an highly infectious disease with an exponential growth rate.

I suppose this is the moment where things get proven one way of another

If we have a tenfold increase but serious illness and death remains low, then how can we justify more lockdowns?

But the second the modelling on that shows the NHS being threatened again, how can we NOT?

 

 

When a virus goes up, down, up, down, up and down again, how does it have an exponential growth rate?

35k cases today, 54k a few days ago - isn’t that exponential decrease? I’m being facetious in a way there and I also get your point but it’s a virus, it comes and go’s. We’ve seen that in just about every country in the world.

The real question is when these peaks will start to subside and disappear completely. 

23 minutes ago, MuespachRam said:

There is a big difference between being allowed to go and not wanting to go..

we won’t get 20,000 for the first home game…for a few reasons, covid, money but mainly because we are rubbish. 

15-18k is my guess.

17 hours ago, Charlotte Ram said:

I believe the club is being fair to the supporters, the new rules are that any ground having more than 20,000 seats will have to reduce capacity to 80% and also ensure only fans with 2x vaccine or fresh test result allowed in the ground.

interestingly Wycombe will be exempt as their new super ground only holds 17’500

now answering your financial question the auditors may not have confirmed that DCFC are a going concern and as such the directors could be guilty of trading insolvently, however I doubt this scenario and think the club wants to be fair with the fans.

Sorry - where have you seen this?

Man Utd are down at Pennyhill Park this week training.

Good enough for Derby, it's good enough for Man Utd ?

2 minutes ago, B4ev6is said:

Would not be so sure about that I think we shall be allowed to go in.

B4 - Which teams in the Championship do you think will get close to selling out?

I've just looked at everyone and I'm confident that no team will go above 80% of their capacity.

You need to understand B4, a lot of people are simply too scared to go to football games now.

Scott Dann would be a really good and solid defensive signing.

Andy Carroll could be worth a go.

2 hours ago, angieram said:

I agree. However, I felt today's small risk was acceptable for me personally. Full stadiums - I am not so sure.

I'm not so sure an enclosed football stadium is as outdoors as some think it is! 

Don't think you'll need to worry about Pride Park being full.

Luke Shaw had multiple big injuries. He has done OK since.

Part of me doesn’t want him back - I’ve never understood what he has really offered. 
 

However you have to trust Rooney and if he wants him, then you need to support your manager.

Strange though that a number of players are prepared to train and trial without a contract but Shay hasn’t?

Some good play, better than expected but no final quality (CKR goal aside which was out of nowhere).

Aluko was good and deceiving in the middle of the pitch, but no end quality/good decision making.

Morrison - didn’t see the awe that some described his performance as.

Baldock - all effort, but didn’t have that pace and whoever described him as a Nugent, spot on.

The lad who impressed me was Hutchinson. Not afraid to get forward and take people on.

Bird - slow and ponderous. We’re worse off for him being in the team. 

We are not going to score many.

Happy with top 21 finish.

PCR test you book and either they send one out or you go to a nominated place.

LFT, which miss circa half of all cases and have been banned in America, were free of charge to people or companies but this is being stopped, quite rightly.

3 hours ago, B4ev6is said:

Tell your dad to be brave and go dont let cov19 win and face fear head on.

Got to respect peoples decisions. he's 80, has low immune system, why take the risk. 

7 hours ago, RoyMac5 said:

And pay for it? If so there's not going to be many cases and/or variants seen!

LFT'S are going to cost, not PCR tests.

1 hour ago, Tamworthram said:

I was thinking the same about India. Rates were very high for several weeks and then declined. I was trying to map our numbers against theirs (taking into account the massively different population sizes) to see how long before we can perhaps expect to numbers decline here but, I haven’t got around to looking at how they reacted (did they implement any sort of lockdown whilst we’re doing the complete opposite?).

They did but this is also India. People rely on public transport and you don’t get 80% furlough money. 

2 hours ago, RoyMac5 said:

Well yes, but what do you do if you think you have covid?

Book a PCR??????

The other thing is this is suggesting the 8000 ST’s want to go and as someone said, what if these ST holders don’t want to go because of Covid. My dad doesn’t want to go tomorrow because of Covid.

The bit that’s puzzling me - as of Monday, we don’t have any restrictions, and everyone (including me) is treating it like there will still be restrictions. There isn’t any on Monday...

Quite like Burton just down to locality.

38 minutes ago, RoyMac5 said:

This is the oddest (or not with this Govt.) decision out there - not been confirmed yet though I don't think.

It’s even odder they are still being used at all for me.

USA has ditched them. Circa 1-5k false positives per day but missing 50% of cases.

Until we test symptoms instead of just testing and align with Europe then we will continuously have wrong numbers. Not to mention the count done on a PCR test being higher than other countries.

Then you get ridiculous advice from councils. Derbyshire county council new advise for sending children hole was listing just about any symptom of any type and the last one was “generally feeling unwell”. 
 

It’s simply ridiculous. I’m so genuinely happy for Monday.

Just my prediction here but I don't see cases rising much beyond 70k in the next two weeks before they drop off.

1) School holidays so less LFT taking place.

2) LFT are soon going to cost money and not free. That will deter folk.

3) If you follow the rules now, you'll continue to apply your own rules after Monday. If you don't follow them now, Monday won't make much difference. So the only real issues will be the opening of clubs... what else is there which isn't already open?

4) The Delta variant went through India and then it declined. Can anyone shed a light why it didn't explode in India? They are now down to 30 to 40k confirmed cases a day, or in population terms thats the same as 1 to 2k in the UK. 

5) Zoe App isn't showing these current trends continuing at the moment. Its not been far wrong generally.