alexxxxx

Spooky.

Real risk we will go under due to this. 

That kind of modelling is different though. They are more likely linked to confidence intervals and statistics. 
Models are much more complex. The modellers will only have a limited understanding of how to calibrate the models, drawing on data from older epidemics/pandemics without the full scientific understanding about how relevant those assumptions are until later on. Therefore various scenarios should be used to test the sensitivity of different levers. 
A modeller would never characterise the results as 'predictions.'

That kind of modelling is different though. They are more likely linked to confidence intervals and statistics. 
Models are much more complex. The modellers will only have a limited understanding of how to calibrate the models, drawing on data from older epidemics/pandemics without the full scientific understanding about how relevant those assumptions are until later on. Therefore various scenarios should be used to test the sensitivity of different levers. 
A modeller would never characterise the results as 'predictions.'

I am a modeller.. Not a financial modeller or health or whatever. 
One thing we always have problems with is explaining the results to 'laypeople' (for the lack of a better word) and the results being misused. Models are only ever going to be good as how well they are calibrated and how good any assumptions are made. The models I build are much less complex than those used to predict policy impacts on a worldwide pandemic and much easier to sense check the models response. 
Models are best used (in my experience) to explore different scenarios to find a plausible range of scenarios rather than make precise predictions. I think the charts that have been shared publically have been a bit unhelpful. Ultimately its a political decision whatever course of action is taken and modelling can only ever be part of the decision making progress. 
At the start of the pandemic there were emails from the government asking for volunteers to join the modelling effort. So how much experience there is globally, is debatable - after all the virus is/was 'novel'. Its a hard job and I expect the modellers have been professional and rational in their approach.. Once the reports out the door to the superiors, how it's used and presented is out of their hands. 
In reality, cases are really starting to take off now which worries me as I have a load of commitments before travelling across the country for Christmas. Getting covid will mean another Christmas away from family. 
I suspect that there will be no more restrictions on meeting others unless there is a drastic worsening of the situation in the next 3/4 days. 

I am a modeller.. Not a financial modeller or health or whatever. 
One thing we always have problems with is explaining the results to 'laypeople' (for the lack of a better word) and the results being misused. Models are only ever going to be good as how well they are calibrated and how good any assumptions are made. The models I build are much less complex than those used to predict policy impacts on a worldwide pandemic and much easier to sense check the models response. 
Models are best used (in my experience) to explore different scenarios to find a plausible range of scenarios rather than make precise predictions. I think the charts that have been shared publically have been a bit unhelpful. Ultimately its a political decision whatever course of action is taken and modelling can only ever be part of the decision making progress. 
At the start of the pandemic there were emails from the government asking for volunteers to join the modelling effort. So how much experience there is globally, is debatable - after all the virus is/was 'novel'. Its a hard job and I expect the modellers have been professional and rational in their approach.. Once the reports out the door to the superiors, how it's used and presented is out of their hands. 
In reality, cases are really starting to take off now which worries me as I have a load of commitments before travelling across the country for Christmas. Getting covid will mean another Christmas away from family. 
I suspect that there will be no more restrictions on meeting others unless there is a drastic worsening of the situation in the next 3/4 days. 

I am a modeller.. Not a financial modeller or health or whatever. 
One thing we always have problems with is explaining the results to 'laypeople' (for the lack of a better word) and the results being misused. Models are only ever going to be good as how well they are calibrated and how good any assumptions are made. The models I build are much less complex than those used to predict policy impacts on a worldwide pandemic and much easier to sense check the models response. 
Models are best used (in my experience) to explore different scenarios to find a plausible range of scenarios rather than make precise predictions. I think the charts that have been shared publically have been a bit unhelpful. Ultimately its a political decision whatever course of action is taken and modelling can only ever be part of the decision making progress. 
At the start of the pandemic there were emails from the government asking for volunteers to join the modelling effort. So how much experience there is globally, is debatable - after all the virus is/was 'novel'. Its a hard job and I expect the modellers have been professional and rational in their approach.. Once the reports out the door to the superiors, how it's used and presented is out of their hands. 
In reality, cases are really starting to take off now which worries me as I have a load of commitments before travelling across the country for Christmas. Getting covid will mean another Christmas away from family. 
I suspect that there will be no more restrictions on meeting others unless there is a drastic worsening of the situation in the next 3/4 days. 

I am a modeller.. Not a financial modeller or health or whatever. 
One thing we always have problems with is explaining the results to 'laypeople' (for the lack of a better word) and the results being misused. Models are only ever going to be good as how well they are calibrated and how good any assumptions are made. The models I build are much less complex than those used to predict policy impacts on a worldwide pandemic and much easier to sense check the models response. 
Models are best used (in my experience) to explore different scenarios to find a plausible range of scenarios rather than make precise predictions. I think the charts that have been shared publically have been a bit unhelpful. Ultimately its a political decision whatever course of action is taken and modelling can only ever be part of the decision making progress. 
At the start of the pandemic there were emails from the government asking for volunteers to join the modelling effort. So how much experience there is globally, is debatable - after all the virus is/was 'novel'. Its a hard job and I expect the modellers have been professional and rational in their approach.. Once the reports out the door to the superiors, how it's used and presented is out of their hands. 
In reality, cases are really starting to take off now which worries me as I have a load of commitments before travelling across the country for Christmas. Getting covid will mean another Christmas away from family. 
I suspect that there will be no more restrictions on meeting others unless there is a drastic worsening of the situation in the next 3/4 days. 

BTW @Carl Sagan my wife's best friend left Romania during the Ceausescu regime (although in fairness she was very young, it was her parents who left and took her and her sister to the US), my Grandfather left Poland when the Nazis invaded and the enlisted in the Navy, and I have a client who left China after being targeted as a dangerous individual (because she was a women who wanted to be climber and scale peaks over seas) and they all say 'thank duck we weren't born in Wales' .
 

The world really has turned on its head over the past couple of years. 
We now have a situation in which the Tories will vote through further restrictions aided and abetted by Labour (despite 60+ Tory rebels that actually remember they are supposed to stand for freedom and personal responsibility) and want to start a conversation about mandatory. 
Meanwhile, whilst I have never been a Tory I now find myself in total agreement with someone I said I would rather stick pins in my eyes than vote for at the last election...
 

I had my booster this week at a walk in glad I'm not gonna be part of the scramble. 

I guess it's about reducing overall risk and priorities. It doesn't need to be all or nothing and just because there's an inconsistency doesn't mean it's bs. 
Pubs/Restaurants can't function if you have to wear your mask at all times, but cinemas and theatres can. Likewise with buses, trains and supermarkets.
You also aren't required to go in to pubs and restaurants, but supermarkets, pharmacies etc are a different story.
It's a common sense approach to reducing risk....

I guess it's about reducing overall risk and priorities. It doesn't need to be all or nothing and just because there's an inconsistency doesn't mean it's bs. 
Pubs/Restaurants can't function if you have to wear your mask at all times, but cinemas and theatres can. Likewise with buses, trains and supermarkets.
You also aren't required to go in to pubs and restaurants, but supermarkets, pharmacies etc are a different story.
It's a common sense approach to reducing risk....

I guess it's about reducing overall risk and priorities. It doesn't need to be all or nothing and just because there's an inconsistency doesn't mean it's bs. 
Pubs/Restaurants can't function if you have to wear your mask at all times, but cinemas and theatres can. Likewise with buses, trains and supermarkets.
You also aren't required to go in to pubs and restaurants, but supermarkets, pharmacies etc are a different story.
It's a common sense approach to reducing risk....

I guess it's about reducing overall risk and priorities. It doesn't need to be all or nothing and just because there's an inconsistency doesn't mean it's bs. 
Pubs/Restaurants can't function if you have to wear your mask at all times, but cinemas and theatres can. Likewise with buses, trains and supermarkets.
You also aren't required to go in to pubs and restaurants, but supermarkets, pharmacies etc are a different story.
It's a common sense approach to reducing risk....

In all honesty if there was a phoenix club if be more worried that pride Park gets redeveloped into flats or something by whoever buys it. 

Positive news is that deaths are falling (although high), rates of hospitalisation are falling (although still high). Cases have been rising to very high levels but seemed to have flattened off and starting to fall a bit. 
Think the gov are doing the right thing here by telling everyone to put on masks inside and frankly shouldn't have stopped saying. 
This new variant has got people worried but there's still a lot we don't know so taking precautions is good but we've not got much to go on it whether how much in practice it impacts the vaccines effectiveness, how infectious it is and most importantly whether it's more or less dangerous.
I don't think we need to be doom and gloom yet. 

Positive news is that deaths are falling (although high), rates of hospitalisation are falling (although still high). Cases have been rising to very high levels but seemed to have flattened off and starting to fall a bit. 
Think the gov are doing the right thing here by telling everyone to put on masks inside and frankly shouldn't have stopped saying. 
This new variant has got people worried but there's still a lot we don't know so taking precautions is good but we've not got much to go on it whether how much in practice it impacts the vaccines effectiveness, how infectious it is and most importantly whether it's more or less dangerous.
I don't think we need to be doom and gloom yet. 

Positive news is that deaths are falling (although high), rates of hospitalisation are falling (although still high). Cases have been rising to very high levels but seemed to have flattened off and starting to fall a bit. 
Think the gov are doing the right thing here by telling everyone to put on masks inside and frankly shouldn't have stopped saying. 
This new variant has got people worried but there's still a lot we don't know so taking precautions is good but we've not got much to go on it whether how much in practice it impacts the vaccines effectiveness, how infectious it is and most importantly whether it's more or less dangerous.
I don't think we need to be doom and gloom yet. 

Shinnie looked back at him but decided to leave him free. 

Only man in the box and shinnie and Davies left him on his own ??‍♂️

Davies really poor there. Got away with it but corner..

We need, from now on, about 1.7 points per game if we have any chance to stay up. We can't afford to lose many more games this season. Winning tonight would be a great way to start the Christmas period... Should have a few 'easier' fixtures against Bristol, Cardiff, Blackpool after this.. 

Fingers crossed this variant is nothing to be worried about.. We'll know in a couple of week.. 

Derby crop up a couple of times in the report - basically suggests we are/were badly managed, partly due to a lack of functioning boardroom. 
Not as scathing as Id hoped about the efl but does say that the p&s scheme doesn't work properly and that theres a conflict of interest in its regulatory powers, the report suggests that they don't investigate enough and that the club appointed board doesn't work properly.