Dimmu

On 16/01/2024 at 22:43, Grumpy Git said:

A bit like Bernie Ecclestone in his bribery case in Germany. He paid £60,000,000 and basically became 'innocent'.

Shameless.

The church outlawed the sale of indulgences in 1567. Unfortunately, the church is a pioneer in this field.

10 minutes ago, Jram said:

It’s only half the season but, regardless, I wouldn’t consider 46 games a particular big sample in such a low scoring, random sport. I am admittedly no expert whatsoever though and would happily be corrected if someone works in sports getting or something 

I'd say it depends on what would be done with the stats. IMO opinion one season is not a great sample but it's the best available as the end of the season usually means radical change to the players.

It's not a very useful answer, but that's stats for you.

7 hours ago, Chester40 said:

Likewise I'd love to see him flourish but can't see it.

I do see the whole 'inverted' winger idea, using the outside of his left and driving towards goal. Robben didn't really have a trick either....BUT he had terrifying lightening pace. Sibley doesn't....

I don't think his crossing or ability to beat his man is good enough for left wing though. 

When we desperately needed that goal against Burton we kept recycling to NML out wide, and his ability to beat his man, go either way and shoot or cross was crucial. We need someone else who can do that. Sibley feels a bit pedestrian and predictable at times. 

 

Obviously, I'm not expecting him to turn prime Robben 🙂 , but I think he has some very good strengths against different sorts of opposition. For those who are just sitting deep, he would offer a longer-range shooting option from the left. For those who prefer to play some football, Sibley is one the best ball carriers we have. 

He's not a lightning quick but he's not the slowest either.

We don't have options up front, so I'd expect the same lineup as against Burton. Sibley is the only one who might come in, but I'm not sure who he would replace: Elder, Barks, or TJJ. 

Even though in the long run I hope some from the coaching eventually realize Sibbo's best position will be RW. Just make him watch tons of games from Robben.

I’m deeply worried about our fans media literacy. 
 

Unfortunately, I could’ve written this to any of the threads in the transfer forum. 

Conor Herohane.

Undroppable along Collins and Nelson with his goal contribution every other game.

Man who doesn't make mistakes in football or life.

I don't see the problem here. If a player has two poor games, I expect him to be dropped. 

On the other hand, outfield players get substituted after one bad game. Except for Sibbo, who has about 15 minutes to shine.

FFS. We can't get promoted playing kids?

We have the highest average age in League One, so maybe that helps.

If offered, I would have taken three points before the game.

I hope all the people concerned have their fire safety up to date.

We might need to show some patience with this one. Charlton wants more, but can they afford not to sell? 

Let's see what happens on the last day of January, they might accept an even lower offer than the current one.

I’m not sure does this have an effect on anything but Huddersfield signed Radulovic from HJK last week. 
 

Not sure how much money they have to spend, but that deal took maybe around 700K from it. 

On 29/12/2023 at 16:55, Ellafella said:

After 22 games, this is how DCFCFANS Forum members rate the players. The ratings are based on 375 observations (max) depending on games player by the player. Nelson is the clear leader, followed by Cashin. Top 5 is made up of 4 defenders so you can see what our season so far has relied upon. I'll be posting more analyses over this coming weekend. Surprised not to see NML higher to be honest. 

More analyses to come including recent improvements by Wilson and Collins.  

16th place in the ratings but my player of the half-season is Collins. He is defending from the front so effectively, that he makes our centrebacks and rest of the defense look like world-beaters.

Not too shabby, while scoring once in 1,5 games.

We should consider signing TJJ as a super-sub if contract terms and physical tests are favorable. Unfortunately, it won't solve the problem that we urgently need another striker. If something happens to Collins, we'll be screwed and I believe everyone is aware of that.

As for TJJ, he appears to be physically raw and weak, yet his first touch and shot are certainly something to build on.

My favourite parts of the game:

Firstly, Thommo’s header and straight afterwards nicking the ball from the goalkeeper. Brilliant press after the whistle to avoid the likely handbags and time wasting. Young man, well done! 👏 

Secondly, the passionate team celebration after the third. So much emotion!  They don’t know then they are beaten, do they?
 

Thirdly, our mocked skipper having an assist and two second assists. Always in the centre of our positive attacking moves. 

Bring on Peterborough!

11 hours ago, Kernow said: 

He has a lot of hype and a good reputation, but apparently can't last more than 10 minutes

I'm looking forward to this window. My guesses are:

OUT:
Embleton
TJJ

IN:
Striker, midfielder, and winger. All loanees.

Warne said we need more speed and firepower up front. I could live with that.

2 hours ago, sage said:

I think utilising the ignore button may save someone's sanity. If a poster regularly annoys you, put them on ignore.

Though sadly, some bugger will quote them and then you froth at the mouth again.

 

This is my method it works pretty well. I do hope people will use it more as it would lead to less quoting of trolls and other behaviorally challenged people.

10 hours ago, ram59 said:

Your play off figure of 1.89 for this season's play offs is a touch out, at the time of your post Stevenage's 1.86 was sixth best, but now it's Oxford's 1.85 ppg. Your point is still valid about it being the highest figure in recent years though. 

Thanks for the correction, I must've been thinking of Derby's ppg when typing. Unfortunately, I can't correct it to the original post anymore. 😕 

10 minutes ago, Chopper said:

Although looking at figures usually bring me out in a rash, nice work Dimmu. 

I have a feeling in my gut (which may or may not be because Mrs. Chopper does all my meat, medium rare, including chicken) that our points per game for the second half of the season will be better than the first half, and also that the points needed for automatics will be lower. Some bookies apparently, somehow, have 8 teams as odds on for top 6 (no me neither), but it is indicative of the lack of standout teams and it's those teams that mean crazy figures for teams in the autos.

I might, just might be starting to feel the butterflies of optimism.

I think we'll do well in the other half of the season as well. This is based on blind hope 😄 

Actually, I planned to check what's been the quarterly average point return of Warne's teams during his promotion seasons but analyzing takes too much time as I need also to create some sort of database. As Warne is known for his fitness-based approach, there could be some interesting insights available. 

Maybe I'll do it later if people are interested in reading such an analysis.

I thought a little bit of statistical comparisons could be an interesting read. Maybe some statistical knowledge might even calibrate one's expectations.

Here are the points per game averages needed for automatic promotion and playoff spot in recent seasons:

Season      19/20   20/21    21/22    22/23    23/24 so far
top 2          1.77       1.89     1.96       2.13        2.05
playoff       1.69       1.61      1.8         1.67        1.89

This season, we are averaging 1.89.

To get to the average 2.14, which should mean automatic promotion, we would need 62 (61.84) points from the last 27 games. It could be achieved for example with 19 wins, 5 draws, and 3 losses = 98 points.

To get to the average of 2.05, which could be the amount needed for automatics, we would need another 59 (58,3) points. 18 wins, 3 draws, and 6 losses = 93 points.

If we keep getting the points we have so far this season, we will be heading towards another 16 wins, 4 draws, and 7 losses. Overall that would mean 88 points which doesn't sound bad at all, but this season it might not be enough.

People have been saying that the league is poor this season. The stats support the idea as the top 6 teams average more points than usual. With the number of points we have now, we would've been in the top two 20-21 season. Poor level is a double-edged sword though as the top teams don't drop many points. Poor level means unforgiving at the same time.

There is not much to conclude from this except the fact the draws are not enough. We need to go for a win in every game, even if that means occasional loss.

I felt these stats are not completed yet. I had to take a look into xG and xGA. You all wanted this, right? So, here's xGD (expected goal difference) lately.

Season 19/20    20/21    21/22    22/23    23/24
2nd       0.47      0.35      0.77      0.72       0.54
6th        0.21      0.40      0.34      0.24       0.23

We have scored 1.79 per game, while our xG has been 1.51.
We have conceded 0.84 per game when our xGA has been 1.11.

Therefore, we are scoring 0.28 more than expected and conceding 0.27 more than we should, which is a good sign. It also means that we are heading towards xGD 0.4 which usually has meant playoff place but is not enough for automatics.

Let's take a look at other candidates for promotion. If xG doesn't change much towards the end of the season, Peterborough should do well and Stevenage should drop from their current position. Let's see how it goes.

What surprised me most is how well such a robust method as xG, xGA, and xD creates a valid linear pattern over the whole season.

I'm expecting a ridiculous amount of xG bashing even though I'm more interested in what people think of our chance of getting around 95 points this season.

10 hours ago, Srg said:

 

really like this interview from Kane. Not much of the media-savvy answers and generally comes across as honest. 

Took them a while to get going but at the end of the I thought to slow it down. Machine-Gun Kane.

I hope Collins brings his shooting boots with him. We can't afford Mali functioning gear if we are going for a win.