ap04

OK just for you, it was handball.
But the reality is we created the better chances and didn't take them, and a lot of credit has to go to your goalie. Equally, the responsibility lies with our strikers who are simply not as ruthless as our usual starters, especially Dion Charles.
As I mentioned during the match when we were battering you but couldn't score in a brothel, it was obvious that you'd get a scabby goal to win it which you did, but that's football folks - you don't always get what you deserve, and we didn't deserve to lose that, not that you care.
The irony is that it was Kane Wilson who was credited with the goal - a player we'd agreed a fee with Brizzle to sign, but didn't in the end as his personal terms and wage demands were too high for us, so he came to you instead.
Anyhoo, onwards and sideways.....

says flippantly whilst liking a post on Derby being unlucky and deserving of more points in 07-08

This may or not be true, however coming from you who amidst our freak early Feb run of 4 wins in 4 even games was bragging about points streaks and form and describing it as anything but "luck" it's not going to wash. Also late goals conceded are not especially "unlucky", nor does a missed penalty mean we deserved something from a game.

But I thought only points mattered to you?
Or you sometimes care about other stuff too?

This may or not be true, however coming from you who amidst our freak early Feb run of 4 wins in 4 even games was bragging about points streaks and form and describing it as anything but "luck" it's not going to wash. Also late goals conceded are not especially "unlucky", nor does a missed penalty mean we deserved something from a game.

This may or not be true, however coming from you who amidst our freak early Feb run of 4 wins in 4 even games was bragging about points streaks and form and describing it as anything but "luck" it's not going to wash. Also late goals conceded are not especially "unlucky", nor does a missed penalty mean we deserved something from a game.

It was a lucky win against Stevenage

This is M-L's shot not Gayle's offside, maybe you should have tried playing it a second further before posting? (just an idea)

Definitely your database, sounds like there has been so much hard work that has gone into it and basically I'm struggling to see any flaws with it.

Correct, not factored in at all. There is a post in the Football Forum if you haven't read it already.
The first thing to counter this is that better players do not have much better goals to xG, there is some difference but not much and it varies. It's more the creating of the situations.
Second is that goals to xG is a much bigger reflection of luck (fewer goals than deserved, goals to chances not regressing yet due to the rare nature of goals) than skill.
You can see this clearly in actual goals vs xG league tables. For instance on this year's EPL City and Liverpool (just about the best sides) are only mid-table, even Wolves Forest West Ham and Luton are better at 'converting' (despite worse players).
Another example, last season we also had one of the league's very top sides, very similar to now if not better. We even had McGoldrick upfront. On the goals for xG not only we weren't near the top like now, we were fifth from bottom. We were unlucky, which fits in with the amount of results we deserved on the balance of play and didn't get.

Hell yeah for numerous reasons, would be good to know which you personally trust though so that I know how to enlighten you going forward (if I were you I'd go with mine).

I think they should introduce this as a template in seminars and masterclasses, "How to attain 0 attempts and 0.01xG (Cheltenham) in games you target a win". Judging by the resounding approval at dcfcfans it'll be all the rage.

What's mildly infuriating is the nonsense being spouted out as a result of a win although I can't speak for others - someone even had the cheek to mention IQ, meanwhile we've been reading gems such as:
"Great win that" - As opposed to the wins that aren't great, guess what the one before was "great" too
"It was all about the 3 points" - Whilst certain other games are about something else, friendlies I suppose
"We deserved this win" - No comment
"Not lucky at all" - No, only 4 flukes out of the last 5
"Our form is brilliant / Warne great job / Others bottling it" - 1 deserved win in the last 7
"So proud of them" - 0 shots at ht at home sure was a new high, not embarrassing at all for an autos contender or Dcfc in L1 according to another poster
"They fought til the end" - As though other sides wouldn't try to recover the ball and get it forward drawing at home against a similar or inferior opponent, they would all lie down with "I surrender" placards
"Result not performance" - "Alright lads today you don't have to create much or defend that great, it's all about the goal and the clean sheet"
"Was always going to be ugly" - Nought to do with us not being good enough to break them down and make it not ugly, it was fate or just one team on the pitch
"This year is not about enjoyment" - Ok we might not have enjoyed it today with 2 chances at home but we damn well will when -assuming status quo- we create fa in the Championship!
"Ref did very well" - Just the one major decision out of one wrong
I despair

I will try and clarify it for you. We currently are
4th luckiest in the league on this (xG vs actual)
5th luckest in the league on this (same metric)
5th or 6th luckiest in the league on xG points vs actual (-7 excluding today, same source)
By my database
Chances to goals scored (3.09, avg 3.72) is as lucky as it gets after 33 games
Chances to goals conceded (4.17) is luckier than 72% of teams
The two combined (1.08) is luckier than 86% of teams - for reference last season was quite unlucky and this was only 0.38 against
Finally on results we are 8 points better off, this is luckier than 88% of teams

What's mildly infuriating is the nonsense being spouted out as a result of a win although I can't speak for others - someone even had the cheek to mention IQ, meanwhile we've been reading gems such as:
"Great win that" - As opposed to the wins that aren't great, guess what the one before was "great" too
"It was all about the 3 points" - Whilst certain other games are about something else, friendlies I suppose
"We deserved this win" - No comment
"Not lucky at all" - No, only 4 flukes out of the last 5
"Our form is brilliant / Warne great job / Others bottling it" - 1 deserved win in the last 7
"So proud of them" - 0 shots at ht at home sure was a new high, not embarrassing at all for an autos contender or Dcfc in L1 according to another poster
"They fought til the end" - As though other sides wouldn't try to recover the ball and get it forward drawing at home against a similar or inferior opponent, they would all lie down with "I surrender" placards
"Result not performance" - "Alright lads today you don't have to create much or defend that great, it's all about the goal and the clean sheet"
"Was always going to be ugly" - Nought to do with us not being good enough to break them down and make it not ugly, it was fate or just one team on the pitch
"This year is not about enjoyment" - Ok we might not have enjoyed it today with 2 chances at home but we damn well will when -assuming status quo- we create fa in the Championship!
"Ref did very well" - Just the one major decision out of one wrong
I despair

What's mildly infuriating is the nonsense being spouted out as a result of a win although I can't speak for others - someone even had the cheek to mention IQ, meanwhile we've been reading gems such as:
"Great win that" - As opposed to the wins that aren't great, guess what the one before was "great" too
"It was all about the 3 points" - Whilst certain other games are about something else, friendlies I suppose
"We deserved this win" - No comment
"Not lucky at all" - No, only 4 flukes out of the last 5
"Our form is brilliant / Warne great job / Others bottling it" - 1 deserved win in the last 7
"So proud of them" - 0 shots at ht at home sure was a new high, not embarrassing at all for an autos contender or Dcfc in L1 according to another poster
"They fought til the end" - As though other sides wouldn't try to recover the ball and get it forward drawing at home against a similar or inferior opponent, they would all lie down with "I surrender" placards
"Result not performance" - "Alright lads today you don't have to create much or defend that great, it's all about the goal and the clean sheet"
"Was always going to be ugly" - Nought to do with us not being good enough to break them down and make it not ugly, it was fate or just one team on the pitch
"This year is not about enjoyment" - Ok we might not have enjoyed it today with 2 chances at home but we damn well will when -assuming status quo- we create fa in the Championship!
"Ref did very well" - Just the one major decision out of one wrong
I despair

What's mildly infuriating is the nonsense being spouted out as a result of a win although I can't speak for others - someone even had the cheek to mention IQ, meanwhile we've been reading gems such as:
"Great win that" - As opposed to the wins that aren't great, guess what the one before was "great" too
"It was all about the 3 points" - Whilst certain other games are about something else, friendlies I suppose
"We deserved this win" - No comment
"Not lucky at all" - No, only 4 flukes out of the last 5
"Our form is brilliant / Warne great job / Others bottling it" - 1 deserved win in the last 7
"So proud of them" - 0 shots at ht at home sure was a new high, not embarrassing at all for an autos contender or Dcfc in L1 according to another poster
"They fought til the end" - As though other sides wouldn't try to recover the ball and get it forward drawing at home against a similar or inferior opponent, they would all lie down with "I surrender" placards
"Result not performance" - "Alright lads today you don't have to create much or defend that great, it's all about the goal and the clean sheet"
"Was always going to be ugly" - Nought to do with us not being good enough to break them down and make it not ugly, it was fate or just one team on the pitch
"This year is not about enjoyment" - Ok we might not have enjoyed it today with 2 chances at home but we damn well will when -assuming status quo- we create fa in the Championship!
"Ref did very well" - Just the one major decision out of one wrong
I despair

Mate we were pants (or almost relegation foddder if you prefer).

Mate we were pants (or almost relegation foddder if you prefer).

33' woodwork
58' inches away from free header tap in
66' Ebu last ditch a yard wide with Wildsmith wrong footed
93' Sitter inches over
(just the clear-cut ones, they also had lesser moments 6' 7' 56' 68' 93' and 96', twice as many as ours but which you can ignore)
Now waiting for our count expecting it to reach double figures.

Until these suit Derby at which point they'll pop up again in a flash. But have you considered the possibility it was the scoreline that was "false" rather than the stats? Seeing as they are a broader sample and football is notoriously unfair.
More than anything it shows how blinkered fans are by results. On chances created (objective no emotion bias or agendas) we didn't deserve to win the game, yet nobody out of a 100 seems to think so.

33' woodwork
58' inches away from free header tap in
66' Ebu last ditch a yard wide with Wildsmith wrong footed
93' Sitter inches over
(just the clear-cut ones, they also had lesser moments 6' 7' 56' 68' 93' and 96', twice as many as ours but which you can ignore)
Now waiting for our count expecting it to reach double figures.

Rubbish. 
 
Shots on target/shots assume each shot is just as likely to go in which leads to people assuming ‘more shots = better performance’. xG rightfully builds on that over simplified view and looks at the quality of chances rather than just quantity of chances. I can’t see how anyone can say it’s not a useful metric. 
 
Surely moved past smarmy pundits giving it the ‘the only stat that matters is the goals scored stat’ large. 
 
It was clear from xG that despite derby not having the results we’d like under Rosenior we were creating quality chances that we simply weren’t taking. (The eye sight test would tell you that Collins had a howler of a start to last season but xG took the emotion out of those claims that we were a boring team that didn’t attack. We did. We attacked very well. We just couldn’t hit a barn door). 
Whereas Rotherham were massively over performing against their xG at the start of last season and eventually started falling like a stone with only the over performance at the start of the season keeping them up ultimately. They regressed back to where their underlying stats said they should have been. 

Posh last 3 xG 6.25-3.15 total shots ratio 62%
Derby last 3 xG 1.85-2.04 total shots ratio 51%

As opposed to us peppering their goal with one chance every 45 minutes.