ap04

I am not dismissive of the club, I am dismissive of misguided opinions.
 
22-23 chances vs 3 best rivals
Ipswich h 4-4
Ipswich a 0-4.5
Weds h 1.5-1
Weds a (4-6) red-adjusted 5.5-4.5
Posh h (6.5-3.5) red-adjusted 5.5-4.5
Posh a 4-5.5
23-24 chances vs 3 best rivals
Portsmouth h 4.5-6.5
Portsmouth a 2.5-5
Posh h 4-8
Posh a 5.5-7
Bolton h 3-4.5
Bolton a (2.5-6) red-adjusted 4-4.5
22-23 total: 20.5 for 24 against (with Ipswich much tougher but Weds away dead rubber)
23-24 total: 23.5 for 35.5 against

We were poor against all 3 rivals at home (4 if you include Stevenage).

In the game I saw we scored 2 goals and created nothing else of note in 90 minutes.
Portsmouth on top of their 2 goals missed an open goal, had a 1v1 saved by Wildsmith's legs and the penalty incident at the end. Calling the above an even game and a fair draw is a bit of a stretch.

I am not dismissive of the club, I am dismissive of misguided opinions.
 
22-23 chances vs 3 best rivals
Ipswich h 4-4
Ipswich a 0-4.5
Weds h 1.5-1
Weds a (4-6) red-adjusted 5.5-4.5
Posh h (6.5-3.5) red-adjusted 5.5-4.5
Posh a 4-5.5
23-24 chances vs 3 best rivals
Portsmouth h 4.5-6.5
Portsmouth a 2.5-5
Posh h 4-8
Posh a 5.5-7
Bolton h 3-4.5
Bolton a (2.5-6) red-adjusted 4-4.5
22-23 total: 20.5 for 24 against (with Ipswich much tougher but Weds away dead rubber)
23-24 total: 23.5 for 35.5 against

I am not dismissive of the club, I am dismissive of misguided opinions.
 
22-23 chances vs 3 best rivals
Ipswich h 4-4
Ipswich a 0-4.5
Weds h 1.5-1
Weds a (4-6) red-adjusted 5.5-4.5
Posh h (6.5-3.5) red-adjusted 5.5-4.5
Posh a 4-5.5
23-24 chances vs 3 best rivals
Portsmouth h 4.5-6.5
Portsmouth a 2.5-5
Posh h 4-8
Posh a 5.5-7
Bolton h 3-4.5
Bolton a (2.5-6) red-adjusted 4-4.5
22-23 total: 20.5 for 24 against (with Ipswich much tougher but Weds away dead rubber)
23-24 total: 23.5 for 35.5 against

I watched the actual game -as I assume did you- so have 100% of the info, why on earth would I downgrade to an estimate of what I just watched? Why use a pre-shot model when I have the post-shot version that actually happened?
xG is an estimate for teams or games you haven't watched (and even then it's very hit-and-miss if not useless for individual games)
 
A great example of the flaws of xG when used in isolation. It gives 0.15 or less for 3 of the goals (which should always measure 1), just 0.1 for their open goal (as close to a goal as it can get), 0.15 for the Nelson, Collins and Cbt openings which were all poor attempts (and 2 of which in the same sequence), and zero for their penalty claim which if given would be almost 1.
 

I watched the actual game -as I assume did you- so have 100% of the info, why on earth would I downgrade to an estimate of what I just watched? Why use a pre-shot model when I have the post-shot version that actually happened?
xG is an estimate for teams or games you haven't watched (and even then it's very hit-and-miss if not useless for individual games)
 
A great example of the flaws of xG when used in isolation. It gives 0.15 or less for 3 of the goals (which should always measure 1), just 0.1 for their open goal (as close to a goal as it can get), 0.15 for the Nelson, Collins and Cbt openings which were all poor attempts (and 2 of which in the same sequence), and zero for their penalty claim which if given would be almost 1.
 

We were poor against all 3 rivals at home (4 if you include Stevenage).

I watched the actual game -as I assume did you- so have 100% of the info, why on earth would I downgrade to an estimate of what I just watched? Why use a pre-shot model when I have the post-shot version that actually happened?
xG is an estimate for teams or games you haven't watched (and even then it's very hit-and-miss if not useless for individual games)
 
A great example of the flaws of xG when used in isolation. It gives 0.15 or less for 3 of the goals (which should always measure 1), just 0.1 for their open goal (as close to a goal as it can get), 0.15 for the Nelson, Collins and Cbt openings which were all poor attempts (and 2 of which in the same sequence), and zero for their penalty claim which if given would be almost 1.
 

In the game I saw we scored 2 goals and created nothing else of note in 90 minutes.
Portsmouth on top of their 2 goals missed an open goal, had a 1v1 saved by Wildsmith's legs and the penalty incident at the end. Calling the above an even game and a fair draw is a bit of a stretch.

In the game I saw we scored 2 goals and created nothing else of note in 90 minutes.
Portsmouth on top of their 2 goals missed an open goal, had a 1v1 saved by Wildsmith's legs and the penalty incident at the end. Calling the above an even game and a fair draw is a bit of a stretch.

In the game I saw we scored 2 goals and created nothing else of note in 90 minutes.
Portsmouth on top of their 2 goals missed an open goal, had a 1v1 saved by Wildsmith's legs and the penalty incident at the end. Calling the above an even game and a fair draw is a bit of a stretch.

In the game I saw we scored 2 goals and created nothing else of note in 90 minutes.
Portsmouth on top of their 2 goals missed an open goal, had a 1v1 saved by Wildsmith's legs and the penalty incident at the end. Calling the above an even game and a fair draw is a bit of a stretch.

In the game I saw we scored 2 goals and created nothing else of note in 90 minutes.
Portsmouth on top of their 2 goals missed an open goal, had a 1v1 saved by Wildsmith's legs and the penalty incident at the end. Calling the above an even game and a fair draw is a bit of a stretch.

In the game I saw we scored 2 goals and created nothing else of note in 90 minutes.
Portsmouth on top of their 2 goals missed an open goal, had a 1v1 saved by Wildsmith's legs and the penalty incident at the end. Calling the above an even game and a fair draw is a bit of a stretch.

In the game I saw we scored 2 goals and created nothing else of note in 90 minutes.
Portsmouth on top of their 2 goals missed an open goal, had a 1v1 saved by Wildsmith's legs and the penalty incident at the end. Calling the above an even game and a fair draw is a bit of a stretch.

In the game I saw we scored 2 goals and created nothing else of note in 90 minutes.
Portsmouth on top of their 2 goals missed an open goal, had a 1v1 saved by Wildsmith's legs and the penalty incident at the end. Calling the above an even game and a fair draw is a bit of a stretch.

In the game I saw we scored 2 goals and created nothing else of note in 90 minutes.
Portsmouth on top of their 2 goals missed an open goal, had a 1v1 saved by Wildsmith's legs and the penalty incident at the end. Calling the above an even game and a fair draw is a bit of a stretch.

In the game I saw we scored 2 goals and created nothing else of note in 90 minutes.
Portsmouth on top of their 2 goals missed an open goal, had a 1v1 saved by Wildsmith's legs and the penalty incident at the end. Calling the above an even game and a fair draw is a bit of a stretch.

In the game I saw we scored 2 goals and created nothing else of note in 90 minutes.
Portsmouth on top of their 2 goals missed an open goal, had a 1v1 saved by Wildsmith's legs and the penalty incident at the end. Calling the above an even game and a fair draw is a bit of a stretch.

In the game I saw we scored 2 goals and created nothing else of note in 90 minutes.
Portsmouth on top of their 2 goals missed an open goal, had a 1v1 saved by Wildsmith's legs and the penalty incident at the end. Calling the above an even game and a fair draw is a bit of a stretch.

In the game I saw we scored 2 goals and created nothing else of note in 90 minutes.
Portsmouth on top of their 2 goals missed an open goal, had a 1v1 saved by Wildsmith's legs and the penalty incident at the end. Calling the above an even game and a fair draw is a bit of a stretch.

If I understand it, xg ignores the situation where
- a precision through ball that will probably lead to a goal is marginally misplaced 
- a player in a scoring position receives the ball but is needlessly offside by a whisker
- a player receiving the ball in a scoring position is wrongly adjudged offside,
- the ref doesn’t play an advantage which would lead to a goal scoring situation
- Collo shoots into a defender instead of putting a teammate clear on goal 
- the ref wrongly penalises an attacker as he passes a defender towards an open goal
etc etc. It seems a really crude measure.
 
Presumably AI could already build a system designed to eradicate ‘happenstance’ altogether and which tells you at the end of the game which team most deserved to win. When it does, is that how we should evaluate managers, build the league table…? 

The keeper making a big save is not "good performance", it is good individually by the keeper but poor defending overall by the team compared to no threat at all (and conversely for the attacking).
But that's irrelevant, the point was that both systems are equally bad at judging who was better on the day by missing most aspects of a performance (boolean).

Only last week you produced a still as evidence -regardless of what happened at full speed and if it merited a foul- there might be contact with Hourihane's foot. You couldn't write it, man.