Is Warne living on borrowed time?

[May Contain Nuts]

35 minutes ago, BramcoteRam84 said:

Hypothetical - he changed the system we got results. 

He did, yes.

He changed the system and we got results. Did he go on to keep the system that got us results? No, he changed it back again (with some tweaks tbf) at the first opportunity to do so after running into trouble results-wise when Bird got injured and the squad were knackered.

Is that being adaptable, or is it being reactive? Or are they one and the same? I suppose that depends on your viewpoint.

The tweaks shored things up for us a bit (although blunted our attack a little), but the players who were important in making the system look 'OK' at the end of the season (Roberts, Knight, McGoldrick) have all left.

I would say that if we are going to call it being adaptable, it means he will have learned something from the experience and saved it for future use. I think that's fair?

So why, then, has he approached this season with a total disregard for the lessons learned last season? Why has he been so determined to go back to a way of playing which seems to be a 'worst of both worlds' scenario that mixes the system that outright didn't work with the one which was merely OK and ignores anything from the system that actually did work?

What did he actually learn last season, and how has he implemented those lessons into this summer's tactical planning and recruitment strategy?

The easier, obvious answers are a) nothing, and b) he hasn't - whether that's true or not we don't know, but the evidence so far suggests those answers are correct. That isn't adaptability.

Edited August 16, 2023 by Kokosnuss

[Tamworthram]

18 minutes ago, IlsonDerby said:

Either the players are rubbish, the system is rubbish or the coaching is rubbish. 
 

At this level I don’t believe the players are rubbish at all. There is plenty of quality in there. 
 

The system 352 has taken teams up from this division and will likely take Blackpool up this year too. 
 

That leaves the coaching…

You might well be right. However, Warne has “coached” other teams (Rotherham) to success. Most of us think he is too stubborn to change his ways which would suggest his methods that have served him well just aren’t working (yet) at Derby. 
 

I know Rotherham are not Derby but I really don’t buy into this theory that Derby is too big a job for him. The stadium, training facilities, attendances and fan expectations are all a step up but none of those should impact his coaching style. It’s also not as if he’s having do deal with bigger personalities amongst the players at Derby (it’s as if he’s trying to coach Ronaldo). 
 

So, I reckon it’s more a case of poor recruitment (unless they come good so I don’t want to write off the new players completely) combined with trying to impose a game plan on players that is alien to their natural style of play. So, the question for me is, will the players at his disposal ever be able and willing to adopt his style? If not then we either need to change the players (obviously difficult to impossible given our restricted budget and closing transfer windows) or change the style/formation which, in itself, carries a high degree of risk if it’s alien to Warne.

[BatRam]

Im sure when he made the changes second half we changed formation and we looked decent for abit , they he went back to 3 at the back? Couple of spells where we looked good going forward. Confidence seems to be really low with the daft mistakes. Got to feel for collo as hes up there on his own and then warne brings 2 attacking players on to replace him.... 

[WestStandStartTheBounce]

It's hard to say anything much positive about the team at the moment. It's like we're watching a mess of strangers playing. The players we have added don't seem to be showing anything and the team seems clueless. 

Warne has to change things sharpish. 

Saturday is a chance to show he can turn this around but It does feel like his time is coming to an end.

[Barney1991]

1 hour ago, RoyMac5 said:

Yes indeed. Clowes is a very experienced businessman with limited football club owning experience. So will he be able to admit he's got it wrong footballing wise? I'm sure there must have been times when the person appointed to a post was lovely and all, but just crap at their job? It happens. So when they 'sacked' Rosenior they said they had a duty of care, so lets see that now in relation to Warne. He's suffering, you can tell that from the change in his personality, the players are suffering too. And for sure the bloody fans are!

I wonder what Stephen Pearce is advising him?

If Pearce is advising him then we need to look out for amortisation 

[RoyMac5]

16 minutes ago, ThePrisoner said:

The one he explained in Day 1 on the job here?

He recently explained yesterday's performance and the Blackpool one too. Does that make his reaction any less real?

[RoyMac5]

4 minutes ago, Barney1991 said:

If Pearce is advising him then we need to look out for amortisation 

Who else at the Club has a wide breadth of football business knowledge, I can't think of anyone?

[Barney1991]

Says everything that is we went to a back 4 is play fozzy and cashin at centre back. Bradley would get torn a new one in a back four by pace and Nelson for me is the new albentosa. Every time he gets the ball he looks like he’s Playing hot potato. I’ve not been that nervous in a centre back for a long time that I’d have rather had Richard keogh back. 

[Barney1991]

2 minutes ago, RoyMac5 said:

Who else at the Club has a wide breadth of football business knowledge, I can't think of anyone?

Get somebody in who does. Clowes said he had about 6 people want the job but he was sticking with Pearce. I have my suspicions it was Pearce who wanted rosenior out and appoint warne 

Edited August 16, 2023 by Barney1991

[BramcoteRam84]

11 minutes ago, Kokosnuss said:

He did, yes.

He changed the system and we got results. Did he go on to keep the system that got us results? No, he changed it back again (with some tweaks tbf) at the first opportunity to do so after running into trouble results-wise when Bird got injured and the squad were knackered.

Is that being adaptable, or is it being reactive? Or are they one and the same? I suppose that depends on your viewpoint.

The tweaks shored things up for us a bit (although blunted our attack a little), but the players who were important in making the system look 'OK' at the end of the season (Roberts, Knight, McGoldrick) have all left.

I would say that if we are going to call it being adaptable, it means he will have learned something from the experience and saved it for future use. I think that's fair?

So why, then, has he approached this season with a total disregard for the lessons learned last season? Why has he been so determined to go back to a way of playing which seems to be a 'worst of both worlds' scenario that mixes the system that outright didn't work with the one which was merely OK and ignores anything from the system that actually did work?

What did he actually learn last season, and how has he implemented those lessons into this summer's tactical planning and recruitment strategy?

The easier, obvious answers are a) nothing, and b) he hasn't - whether that's true or not we don't know, but the evidence so far suggests those answers are correct. That isn't adaptability.

He’s tried to recruit in line with the system he wants to play. First few weeks, add in loss of Knight which we should have been prepared for, and Didzy going which I don’t think they expected, it isn’t working right now and does not look right. If he stays with 3-5-2 and we continue to play badly then I will accept he is another Pearson. When it hasn’t worked so far in his tenure however he’s changed.

The next few weeks I think are critical in his Derby career, he needs results however he gets them and if not results then drastically improved performances that show some evidence things can turn. Last season (you may disagree) the performances by and large were not awful and there were numerous occasions we didn’t get the results the performances warranted and I think we ran out of steam. This is more his squad although his hands are clearly still tied to some degree, after 9-10 games is the time to judge him.

[Gabby'sThighs]

I think the current squad is easily good enough for top 6, the whole team just has to to do the basics well. So many of them seem panicky, and I assume that's lack of familiarity with the system or with each other, rather than lack of ability.

I lost count of the number of forced passes which lost possession. What tends to follow then is complete mayhem.

Oxford's first goal was a good example: Nelson had easy passes either side of him but went for a very ambitious midfield-splitting pass to Bird, lost it, and immediately the defence was all over the bloody place. Two men ran to the ball and left space at LB.

It doesn't feel like players are being utilised to their strengths. Mendez-Laing is effective when he's running at a lone fullback but not through the middle.

Positives: Smith looked better than previously, more tackles, still gave the ball away, mind. Wilson's best performance so far, Washington looked handy enough.

[Skin em Ted]

I like Warne and obviously want him to succeed, and was fully supportive of the calculated risk of bringing him in for Rosenior at the time. All of us want an end to the revolving doors of managers and I really want to be patient and give him time.

Something does appear rotten now and barring a Mike Bassett fantasy turnaround following a change of formation, I think it is a matter of when not if… possibly just one tonking away from the door. I hope he can change it, and so will he as I don’t know where his career goes from failing here?

Ultimately we should always be competitive at home regardless of where we are. I don’t have a season ticket, so get to games when I can, roughly once a month. In doing so I’ve been served up some real gopping gruel of late. Folks will decide not to bother soon and as others have already pointed out, the costs of parting ways will be being weighed up by the number crunchers against potential revenue losses. 

[May Contain Nuts]

29 minutes ago, Tamworthram said:

You might well be right. However, Warne has “coached” other teams (Rotherham) to success. Most of us think he is too stubborn to change his ways which would suggest his methods that have served him well just aren’t working (yet) at Derby.

There's another option - his methods have been found out by opposition managers and are a busted flush, easily countered by anyone with half a brain and a team with a modicum of talent. (We'll still overwhelm the really s*** ones).

If you listened to the 'Moment of Truth' Podcast and any of the extensive 'getting to know Paul Warne' style interviews in the first few months after his appointment then you knew exactly what to expect from him, and that's what we've got.

He's a natural showman, he wants to be liked. He gives away too much information.

He wowed people with his work at Rotherham, getting them promoted 3 times was like some sort of magic trick, but now he's like a magician who's let all of the audience in on the workings of the tricks they're no longer so enthralled by them, they know what he's doing and how he's doing it, there are no surprises. 2 years later and it's just the same routine, there are no new tricks.

If the problems with his methods were easy enough to spot as a fan (admittedly with questionable knowledge about the complexities of tactical management) - and they were, as plenty of the concerns voiced in those initial months have held true - then how easy must it be for those within the game to outwit him?

Edited August 16, 2023 by Kokosnuss

[nottingram]

A couple more Sunderland losses and I’d start to think about whether Tony Mowbray might be available soon 

[angieram]

9 minutes ago, Barney1991 said:

Get somebody in who does. Clowes said he had about 6 people want the job but he was sticking with Pearce. I have my suspicions it was Pearce who wanted rosenior out and appoint warne 

That is so not true. Warne is Clowes' appointment. 

[Kathcairns]

1 hour ago, angieram said:

It's not pace that's the problem, it's position. The players can't find each other precisely because he's got them all running around "at pace" all the time. No-one knows where any bugger else is! 

Headless chickens comes to mind.🤔

[Barney1991]

Just now, angieram said:

That is so not true. Warne is Clowes' appointment. 

Then clowes got the appointment wrong and worse thing about it was giving him 4 years. 

[angieram]

Just now, Barney1991 said:

Then clowes got the appointment wrong and worse thing about it was giving him 4 years. 

I agree. 

[Gerry Daly]

So do I but I remember thinking at the time how decisive and even ruthless Clowes was to get rid of Rosenior and appoint Warne. I think Clowes is very reasonable man and he doesn't come over as prone to knee jerk reactions but I suspect he won't be as slow to pull the trigger as many seem to think

[TomTom92]

1 minute ago, Gerry Daly said:

So do I but I remember thinking at the time how decisive and even ruthless Clowes was to get rid of Rosenior and appoint Warne. I think Clowes is very reasonable man and he doesn't come over as prone to knee jerk reactions but I suspect he won't be as slow to pull the trigger as many seem to think

We'll see.

I do enjoy the argument of 'We can't keep changing managers' whilst i agree in some ways. Many teams have got promoted including Forest by keep rolling the dice until lady luck shines down accordingly.