The Ukraine War

[Ramarena]

3 hours ago, Mucker1884 said:

Any chance of a ceasefire sometime soon?  😲

Laddo's currently in Lublin (Poland) finalising the paperwork/Visas etc, before catching the train into Ukraine on Wednesday, to start his next adventure... making a start on clearing some of the rubble, and sweeping up any booby traps/land mines etc that may or may not be lying around! (Been working for Halo Trust for about 18months or so now).

He's already been to war twice, the second of which was rather unpleasant and took far too many years to calm him down and get him back to what has recently began to appear as "Being in a good place" (mentally), so whilst we're not exactly over the moon that he's once again returning to a war zone (albeit as "a neutral" this time),  we do appreciate he needs some sort of buzz in his life, and in effect, this is just the next phase on his road to a full recovery from the aforementioned mental tortures that have plagued him over the past decade. 

Who'd be a bloody parent, eh?  🙄

 

🙏
Just stay the f*** safe, son.
xxx

Thank you for mentioning this. It helps us remember the reality and human impact of this situation, which can often feel all to distant with social media, etc

The work your son will be doing will make a huge difference to the citizens of Ukraine, in particular those still working in agriculture.

As you say, hope he stays safe and good luck to him.

[Ramarena]

The Kerch bridge has been hit again and is currently closed. There are varied rumours of the level of damage, so hard to tell the extent of the damage and how long the bridge could be out of action.

This will disrupt Russian road logistics in the short term, coupled with Russians trying to get back home via the only land route will tie up supply routes in the wider area. 

From what I can tell the rail section of the bridge is undamaged and will resume services, if it hasn’t already. 

[Ramarena]

Just realised that this attack on the bridge has happened on the 9th anniversary of the shooting down of MH17.

[Mr Tibbs]

Whilst the disruption is welcome, Ukraine could do with that rail line being knocked out for Russia to really feel the logistical pinch. Nice to see the USV's have some success after the last few blunted attacks on Sevastopol.

It appears Russia are trying to copy the UK's F-35B underwater capability by sending one of their Su-25's into the deep as well this morning. Probably not worth the recovery costs unlike our fiasco in 2021. 

[Ramarena]

Roman Abramovic resurfaces in an unlikely position of kidnapped child negotiator.

The FT have a story how Abramovic is working with the Saudis and Turkey, to negotiate a deal to repatriate thousands of kidnapped Ukrainian children to their Ukrainian families/homeland (some of their families will have been killed).

it’s paywalled, but here’s the link

 https://www.ft.com/content/8d20d8be-6975-4497-aa5c-6c74d76b74e0

[Ramarena]

After collapsing the grain deal, Russia last night decided to launch an attack on the grain silos in the port city of Odessa. Large amounts of Ukraines crop is stored there ready for shipping to mostly Africa and the Middle East.

According to Ukraine Russia’s attack consisted of:

- 16 Kalibr cruise missiles

- 8 Kh-22 missiles

- 6 P-800 Oniks missiles

- 1 Kh-59 missile

- 32 Shaded drones

Odessa is a distance from the front lines, has no military value as a target as there’s no real Navy, no industry and few military installations.
 

Sadly this will have an adverse affect on Africa and the Middle East and maybe global food prices if enough is destroyed.

Edited July 19, 2023 by Ramarena

[Ramarena]

Prigozhin's about!

Video has popped up on Telegram of him allegedly in Belarus talking to Wagner fighters there. It's on a Wagner channel, so hard to independently verify. 

 

Edited July 19, 2023 by Ramarena

[Van der MoodHoover]

5 hours ago, Ramarena said:

After collapsing the grain deal, Russia last night decided to launch an attack on the grain silos in the port city of Odessa. Large amounts of Ukraines crop is stored there ready for shipping to mostly Africa and the Middle East.

According to Ukraine Russia’s attack consisted of:

- 16 Kalibr cruise missiles

- 8 Kh-22 missiles

- 6 P-800 Oniks missiles

- 1 Kh-59 missile

- 32 Shaded drones

Odessa is a distance from the front lines, has no military value as a target as there’s no real Navy, no industry and few military installations.
 

Sadly this will have an adverse affect on Africa and the Middle East and maybe global food prices if enough is destroyed.

Need to think through consequences.....

- massive loss of grain to Africa

- sharp increase in famine

- increased migration

- more boats

 

The only mitigation that makes sense is to launch suella braverman at Moscow.....

[Ramarena]

https://www.cnn.com/videos/world/2023/07/19/yevgeny-prigozhin-wagner-boss-belarus-video-vpx.cnn

CNN have the vid, but it's terrible quality, backlit by a sunset, focus going in and out as the camera can't grab a focus points as he's pretty much a silhouette. 

Doesn't tell us much really. 

[Ramarena]

3 minutes ago, Van der MoodHoover said:

Need to think through consequences.....

- massive loss of grain to Africa

- sharp increase in famine

- increased migration

- more boats

 

The only mitigation that makes sense is to launch suella braverman at Moscow.....

She'd be right at home.  Gremlin in the Kremlin!

 

Edited July 19, 2023 by Ramarena

[Van der MoodHoover]

3 minutes ago, Ramarena said:

She'd be right at home.  Gremlin in the Kremlin!

 

Glad you took my post in the intended spirit 👍

[Ramarena]

Very strange news coming out of Russia today, Igor Girkin has been arrested and his wife claims he has been charged with inciting extremism, she put it on his Telegram account.

I'm guessing playing a part in the deaths of 300 people wasn't bad enough for Russia. It's strange that they've left it this long to clamp down on him. He's been highly critical of Putin for a while now, but also has a big following amongst the military, so seemed untouchable. 

It'll be interesting to see where they take this and the impact it has on the moral of his supporters in the military. 

https://www.cnn.com/2023/07/21/europe/igor-girkin-arrest-russia-intl/index.html

Also Poland have decided move units from the west of the country, to the border with Belarus. They have done this in response to the placement of Wagners training camp right on the border and Putins remarks on Poland having territorial ambitions and western Poland being a gift from Stalin. 

Seem's Russia's border games are still a political priority. 

Russia is still attacking agricultural infrastructure in Odesa with cruise misiles and drones on a nightly basis, after the collapse of the grain deal. 

[Andrew3000]

[Ramarena]

Blinken doing a bit of trolling

 

[Ramarena]

The USA has announced that they are accelerating the handover of F16’s and Abraham tanks, whilst Biden yesterday had talks with Zelensky over the transfer of ATACMS missile systems.

I wonder if Russia collapsing the grain deal has pushed these advances.

[Highgate]

Putin seems to conveniently forget exactly who invaded who in this war.

https://www.politico.eu/article/no-cease-fire-ukraine-russia-war-offensive-vladimir-putin/#:~:text=“The Ukrainian army is on,referring to the peace initiatives.

[Ramarena]

1 hour ago, Highgate said:

Putin seems to conveniently forget exactly who invaded who in this war.

https://www.politico.eu/article/no-cease-fire-ukraine-russia-war-offensive-vladimir-putin/#:~:text=“The Ukrainian army is on,referring to the peace initiatives.

Indeed. 

Hitting government buildings in Moscow and the Kirch bridge again, alongside some positive developments on the counteroffensive is all it takes and they start throwing s*** at the wall again.

I see Medvedev made his 2727th nuclear threat today. 

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russias-medvedev-wed-have-use-nuclear-weapon-if-ukrainian-offensive-was-success-2023-07-30/

[Highgate]

15 hours ago, Ramarena said:

Indeed. 

Hitting government buildings in Moscow and the Kirch bridge again, alongside some positive developments on the counteroffensive is all it takes and they start throwing s*** at the wall again.

I see Medvedev made his 2727th nuclear threat today. 

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russias-medvedev-wed-have-use-nuclear-weapon-if-ukrainian-offensive-was-success-2023-07-30/

I wonder is Medvedev saying these things with the encouragement of the Kremlin, they may consider it useful that someone prominent like a former president is making these threats publicly without having to say them themselves, or are these threats just Medvedev himself. 

It's still difficult not to worry what Putin might do if Russia start to lose major ground in Ukraine.. especially if it looked like Russia was in danger of losing Crimea. 

[Ramarena]

26 minutes ago, Highgate said:

I wonder is Medvedev saying these things with the encouragement of the Kremlin, they may consider it useful that someone prominent like a former president is making these threats publicly without having to say them themselves, or are these threats just Medvedev himself. 

It's still difficult not to worry what Putin might do if Russia start to lose major ground in Ukraine.. especially if it looked like Russia was in danger of losing Crimea. 

I guess the problem is, how many times can you threaten a nuclear strike and not actually do it, before you look incredibly weak. Their red lines keep disintegrating as deep down they know the consequences.

No doubt the Kremlin would be happy for him to make these threats. I think in their eyes it gives them some level of plausible deniability and they think they are striking fear into the hearts of their enemies. 

Its the same with massing Wagner on the Polish border and having people talk about them committing some form of terrorist attack, will it actually happen?

 

[Highgate]

5 minutes ago, Ramarena said:

I guess the problem is, how many times can you threaten a nuclear strike and not actually do it, before you look incredibly weak. Their red lines keep disintegrating as deep down they know the consequences.

No doubt the Kremlin would be happy for him to make these threats. I think in their eyes it gives them some level of plausible deniability and they think they are striking fear into the hearts of their enemies. 

Its the same with massing Wagner on the Polish border and having people talk about them committing some form of terrorist attack, will it actually happen?

You can't take their pronouncements any more seriously than you could take their state media in my opinion. 

The problem is there is always the chance that they will do something else crazy, it can't be ruled out completely... especially if the situation gets more desperate from their perspective. 

A new president in Russia, who can claim the war had nothing to do with him in the first place and that continuing it is a mistake, is the only way out as far as I can see.  And it's far from certain that a new Russian president would take that attitude.