The Ukraine War

[Van der MoodHoover]

57 minutes ago, sage said:

It's a war of attrition and Russia have more troops. They need to make a peace settlement. It will hurt but they will have to give up the Crimea. 

Do you think Russia would settle or want the Donbas too.....

[sage]

Just now, Van der MoodHoover said:

Do you think Russia would settle or want the Donbas too.....

I think at best they would want a vote on each region. However with a displaced and intimidated population that would favour them. 

More realistically they would want Crimea and have a vote on the rest with a deal based on no NATO membership.

Ukraine at best would want a vote in each area and be able to join NATO but with Ukraine only troops and weapons based there unless invaded.

 

I'm not optimistic though.

However. If those figures are correct they have lost around 15% of their regular army with another 25% injured. 

[Eddie]

1 hour ago, Van der MoodHoover said:

BBC run a piece about how Ukraine losses are "mounting up" but most of the individuals examples quoted seem to be months ago. Is this a major concern at this stage?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-66581217

 

You could almost think that the BBC are a bunch of Vatniks in hock to a political party financed by the Kremlin, couldn't you?

[Ramarena]

18 hours ago, Van der MoodHoover said:

BBC run a piece about how Ukraine losses are "mounting up" but most of the individuals examples quoted seem to be months ago. Is this a major concern at this stage?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-66581217

 

Every single Ukrainian death is a concern. What the true number are we don’t know, but they’ll be higher than when they we’re defending as unfortunately offensive actions carry higher risk of casualties.

[Ramarena]

18 hours ago, sage said:

It's a war of attrition and Russia have more troops. They need to make a peace settlement. It will hurt but they will have to give up the Crimea. 

There will never be a peace settlement as Russia will never abide by one. 

They will just use it to restock their army then go again. 

As one of the Ukrainians in the article says, “The Russians won't stop, he said, "you can't negotiate with them". The West doesn't understand this”

[Ramarena]

On the drones strikes from the other night, it seems a number of munitions and fuel sites were destroyed. But the big hit was at the base in Pskov, where Russia has admitted 4 IL-76’s were lost. Ukraine claims to have destroyed more, but these claims haven’t been verified.

Ukraine is going in very hard on Russian logistics at present.

[sage]

52 minutes ago, Ramarena said:

There will never be a peace settlement as Russia will never abide by one. 

They will just use it to restock their army then go again. 

As one of the Ukrainians in the article says, “The Russians won't stop, he said, "you can't negotiate with them". The West doesn't understand this”

What's the answer then? What's the endgame?

All wars end with a settlement it's just from what position of strength or weakness 

[Ramarena]

33 minutes ago, sage said:

What's the answer then? What's the endgame?

All wars end with a settlement it's just from what position of strength or weakness 

There isn’t really an end game. Russia is just plowing everything it has into a fight it started and thought it would win in three days. Ukraine is fighting for its existence/liberate its citizens.

I think Zelensky has come to the thinking that Crimea is the only way to break the current situation, but he doesn’t know what that will look like long term, his aim seems to be put Crimea at threat and that changes the game, putting Putin under huge pressure hoping something breaks and the situation changes.
 

But where it goes from there is anyone’s guess. This is why in my opinion, they’ve switched focus to the southern offensive. 

Ukrainians know that the people they are being told to trust and make peace with, are the same people that broke the Minsk agreements, raided their country, murdered their people and kidnapped their children amongst other war crimes. 

You can kind of see why they aren’t exactly open to trusting the other side in a peace agreement.

Edited August 31, 2023 by Ramarena

[sage]

22 minutes ago, Ramarena said:

There isn’t really an end game. Russia is just plowing everything it has into a fight it started and thought it would win in three days. Ukraine is fighting for its existence/liberate its citizens.

I think Zelensky has come to the thinking that Crimea is the only way to break the current situation, but he doesn’t know what that will look like long term, his aim seems to be put Crimea at threat and that changes the game, putting Putin under huge pressure hoping something breaks and the situation changes.
 

But where it goes from there is anyone’s guess. This is why in my opinion, they’ve switched focus to the southern offensive. 

Ukrainians know that the people they are being told to trust and make peace with, are the same people that broke the Minsk agreements, raided their country, murdered their people and kidnapped their children amongst other war crimes. 

You can kind of see why they aren’t exactly open to trusting the other side in a peace agreement.

Oh it's incredibly difficult but it will end in 

A) a settlement

B) Ukraine surrenders

Or C) Russia completely withdraws Inc Crimea

Which is most likely?

I think both sides know B) or C) is unlikely or at best a long way ahead and the fighting now will purely gain advantage at the negotiating table and hurry the start of that process along 

 

[Reggie Greenwood]

49 minutes ago, Ramarena said:

There isn’t really an end game. Russia is just plowing everything it has into a fight it started and thought it would win in three days. Ukraine is fighting for its existence/liberate its citizens.

I think Zelensky has come to the thinking that Crimea is the only way to break the current situation, but he doesn’t know what that will look like long term, his aim seems to be put Crimea at threat and that changes the game, putting Putin under huge pressure hoping something breaks and the situation changes.
 

But where it goes from there is anyone’s guess. This is why in my opinion, they’ve switched focus to the southern offensive. 

Ukrainians know that the people they are being told to trust and make peace with, are the same people that broke the Minsk agreements, raided their country, murdered their people and kidnapped their children amongst other war crimes. 

You can kind of see why they aren’t exactly open to trusting the other side in a peace agreement.

At what stage do the Russian People or Oligarch's get fed up of the financial and human cost for Russia and Putin gets sidelined ? Or is that not possible as seen by the recent plane crash ? 

[Highgate]

11 minutes ago, sage said:

Oh it's incredibly difficult but it will end in 

A) a settlement

B) Ukraine surrenders

Or C) Russia completely withdraws Inc Crimea

Which is most likely?

I think both sides know B) or C) is unlikely or at best a long way ahead and the fighting now will purely gain advantage at the negotiating table and hurry the start of that process along 

I think the war will keep going while Putin remains in power.  I can't see him agreeing to giving up the 4 annexed regions, or accepting any sort internationally overseen referendums, involving the pre-war inhabitants of those areas. He has invested too much of his reputation in this invasion already. If he can't rig the votes then he simply won't agree to them, as all of the recently annexed regions are likely to vote to remain in the Ukraine.  

While the West back Ukraine, I don't see how this war ends until Putin is toppled or dies (and even then we have no idea what the next guy would do).  So I'd rule out a settlement for now.  There is just no mutually acceptable position on which they could agree to end the war. 

The logical solution, if we were dealing with a new reasonable regime in Moscow (a big if), would be for referendums in the 4 annexed regions and the Crimea, and some arrangement about not posting NATO troops on Ukrainian territory for a certain number of years or something. Before the invasion Russia could reasonably have hoped a deal would have involved Ukraine agreeing to not join NATO at all, but they've totally shot themselves in the foot there. 

Crimea's vote will be the interesting one, and would both countries agree to it in the first place? 

[Ramarena]

39 minutes ago, sage said:

Oh it's incredibly difficult but it will end in 

A) a settlement

B) Ukraine surrenders

Or C) Russia completely withdraws Inc Crimea

Which is most likely?

I think both sides know B) or C) is unlikely or at best a long way ahead and the fighting now will purely gain advantage at the negotiating table and hurry the start of that process along 

 

d) one of Ukraine or Russia effectively collapses. 

[sage]

1 minute ago, Ramarena said:

d) one of Ukraine or Russia effectively collapses. 

That is implied in B but yes

[Ramarena]

2 minutes ago, sage said:

That is implied in B but yes

I’d say Russia is equally, if not more likely to have some sort of collapse (probably economic) ahead of Ukraine.

The problem is will even regime change in Russia alter the dynamic and bring peace?

Im hugely doubtful.

[Alph]

Well it won't be loss of life that forces Russia to surrender territory or accept unfavorable peace terms. 

They're built different. 

[Ram-Alf]

38 minutes ago, Alpha said:

Well it won't be loss of life that forces Russia to surrender territory or accept unfavorable peace terms. 

They're built different. 

This

Russia has circa 146million people and is the biggest country on earth with a very differing population out in the sticks.

Revolution in 1919, Stalin murdering 10s of millions of his people, Stalin signing a pact with Hitler in 1939, Stalin was warned by Churchill later in the war concerning Hitler, Stalin was not trusting of the west or Churchill...hardliners came and went until Gorbachev who was more friendly to the west, Yeltsin tried with the free market changed the constitution and more but resigned eventually.

Putin arrived, Made his mates Billionaires by giving out Russia's family jewels...but Russia you could still deal with, A few dissidents killed or imprisoned, Novichok and Salisbury hit the headlines, Crimea invaded, We're now seeing how Putin is working, He doesn't like critics or dissent, Plenty have fell to their deaths or disappeared.

Invasion of Ukraine and he thinks or was told in a few days we'll have what we want...wrong, The west has come to Ukraine's aid at a cost of Billions of $s, Putin has deals in place with Iran and North Korea for weapons, China are supporting with food, Russia's economy is going down the toilet but oil/gas is still being exported.

Wagner are in Africa several Countries have fallen to their armed forces the west are keeping a close eye on events, The rest of the African countries will be concerned.

The answer to all this is China imo, They can finish this soon enough, But they see the west spending billions to support Ukraine and still buying Chinas goods.

Yes the Russians are built differently well certainly those in power

 

[Ramarena]

To add to this.

I view the current situation Ukraine faces as having some similarities with that faced by Europe during WW2.

You have an enemy that wants your land and they won’t stop till they get/keep it.

You can try and make peace, but as Chamberlain found out. It means nothing to these people and they see it as a display of weakness.

They are willing to throw every possible body they can muster to its death if they think that’s what’s required. No loss is to great!

Thats why you can’t plan a negotiation, it won’t be worth the papers it’s written on as Ukraine found out with the Minsk agreements. 

The only way an end of sorts will come about is if: Russia are defeated on the battlefield, with Ukraine destroying their logistics and weaponry, so they have little effective weapons left to fight with. 

Or they destroy themselves economically, which is a possibility. 

Politically I don’t think Putin will be toppled until one of the other aspects collapses.

So Ukraine, like Europe had to, must somehow defeat the enemy on the battlefield. It’s a tall order, but they are making progress.

Edited August 31, 2023 by Ramarena
Phone messed up

[Ramarena]

5 hours ago, Highgate said:

I think the war will keep going while Putin remains in power.  I can't see him agreeing to giving up the 4 annexed regions, or accepting any sort internationally overseen referendums, involving the pre-war inhabitants of those areas. He has invested too much of his reputation in this invasion already. If he can't rig the votes then he simply won't agree to them, as all of the recently annexed regions are likely to vote to remain in the Ukraine.  

While the West back Ukraine, I don't see how this war ends until Putin is toppled or dies (and even then we have no idea what the next guy would do).  So I'd rule out a settlement for now.  There is just no mutually acceptable position on which they could agree to end the war. 

The logical solution, if we were dealing with a new reasonable regime in Moscow (a big if), would be for referendums in the 4 annexed regions and the Crimea, and some arrangement about not posting NATO troops on Ukrainian territory for a certain number of years or something. Before the invasion Russia could reasonably have hoped a deal would have involved Ukraine agreeing to not join NATO at all, but they've totally shot themselves in the foot there. 

Crimea's vote will be the interesting one, and would both countries agree to it in the first place? 

Agreed although I can’t see the vote in those regions being acceptable to Ukraine given the Russian attempts to alter the demographics of those regions.

[Ramarena]

5 hours ago, Reggie Greenwood said:

At what stage do the Russian People or Oligarch's get fed up of the financial and human cost for Russia and Putin gets sidelined ? Or is that not possible as seen by the recent plane crash ? 

Good question, who knows.

If you look at some of the likes of Vladamir Solovyov and the insane propaganda he pumps out then it’s easy to see why they don’t react.

On one hand some will be scared, on the other many people will have been raised on a diet of imperialist rhetoric.

There are Russians that see through this but they often keep a low profile as they don’t want to risk the wrath of the state!

[Highgate]

3 minutes ago, Ramarena said:

Agreed although I can’t see the vote in those regions being acceptable to Ukraine given the Russian attempts to alter the demographics of those regions.

Yeah absolutely, any such vote would have to involve pre-war inhabitants only.  Which would be a tricky thing to organize to say the least.